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Canada Shrugs Off Loss of Morneau and Gold Reclaims $2000 Threshold

Canada Shrugs Off Loss of Morneau and Gold Reclaims $2000 Threshold

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Overview:   The NASDAQ rallied 1% yesterday to record highs as the Dow Industrials struggled, and the S&P 500 was able to eke out a small gain.  The coattails were short, and the strength of the yen may have contributed to a 0.2% loss of the Nikkei.  Still, its 6.2% advance this month is the best among the G10.  Chinese equities posted small gains, but amid rising infections and anticipating new lockdown measures, South Korea's Kospi took it on the chin, falling nearly 2.5%.  New US actions against Huawei took a toll on Taiwanese chip makers and weighed on the broader index.  India's 1% gain led the region.  European shares are flattish, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 remains within the range set before the weekend.  US shares are also little changed.  Benchmark 10-year yields are mostly 1-2 bp softer, which puts the US 10-year yield near 67 bp.  The dollar is under modest pressure, falling against nearly all the currencies today.  Among the majors, sterling, the yen, and the Canadian dollar are up just shy of 0.5% to lead.  Russia, Mexico, and South Africa lead the emerging market currencies higher.  Turkey stands out as a notable exception.  Gold has re-taken the $2000 level.  The next technical target is near $2025.  Oil is firm but flat within its recent ranges.  The $43.50 capped the rally earlier this month in the September WTI contract.  

Asia Pacific

The US tightened its attempt to isolate Huawei.  It extended its sanctions to cover 38 more affiliates in 21 countries.  The goal is to cut its access to semiconductor chips.  This hit Taiwanese chip producers.  Separately, and contrary to the assessment of many private economists, US trade adviser Navarro said in an interview yesterday that China is "absolutely" keeping its word on purchases of US goods.   President Trump has also praised Chinese agriculture purchases. Separately, reports suggest some 14 mln barrels of oil in seven super-class tankers are on their way to China now.  

The minutes from the recent meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia confirmed it did not see the need for additional measures.  However, there were two mitigating factors.  First, officials were concerned that cheap funding was not leading to new credit expansion, though it was not clear on whether it was a supply or demand challenge.  Second, the latest outbreak and lockdown in Victoria will push up unemployment and weigh on economic activity.  

The dollar stalled just above JPY107 last week and is retracing the gains scored in the first half of August.  It has traded at an eight-day low near JPY105.40 today, just above the (61.8%) retracement of the bounce off the JPY104 level seen on July 31.  Resistance is seen around JPY105.80, and there is an option for about $480 mln at JPY106 that expires today.   The Australian dollar is firm and approached the month's high set on August 8, near $0.7245. A move above $0.7255 targets $0.7300.  Note that the Aussie continues to march higher against the New Zealand dollar.  With today's gains, the 11-day streak seems to match record moves of 1985 and 1991.  The RBNZ seems more aggressive than the RBA, and this appears to be the main driver.  The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at CNY6.9325, in line with bank model projections.  The greenback traded down to almost CNY6.92, a fresh five-month low.  

Europe

Rising new virus cases in Europe have begun to have an economic impact according to some high-frequency data.  In the first two weeks of August, activity slowed in France, Italy, and Spain.  Germany, which is reporting the most cases in four months, and Sweden and Norway are seeing more sluggish results.  There is risk that these developments are picked up on the preliminary August PMI releases at the end of the week.  If reflected, the service PMI appears more vulnerable than the manufacturing PMI.  

The top UK and EU negotiators (Frost and Barnier) have dinner tonight to kick-off the week of staff negotiations.  Frost and Barnier will meet again at the end of the week.  To ensure that the treaty can be ratified, it is generally understood that it needs to be concluded by the end of September or early October at the latest.  Often in such circumstances, officials bring in the goalposts, as it were, and reduce their ambitions and could settle for a smaller and narrower deal to secure an agreement.  

In addition to UK trade talks, the EU is being challenged on two other fronts.  The first is Belarus and the risk that Russia provides military/police support.  The second is Turkey, which appears to be set to begin drilling for oil off the southwest coast of Cyprus and says it will continue to do so for the next month (September 15).  

Nevertheless, euro has resurfaced the $1.1900 area and reached $1.1915 in early European turnover, just shy of the August 6 high, which is also a two-year high.  Above there, the $1.20 area offers psychological resistance, and as we have pointed out previously, it is the euro's average since its launch.  Initial support is around $1.1880 and then $1.1860.  Sterling is also firmer and knocking against this month's high (~$1.3185).  It has seen $1.3200 in March before collapsing, and the high for the year is closer to $1.3280.  We have noted that 50 and 200-day moving averages (Golden Cross) for the major currencies have crossed.  Sterling is the last, and it is happening today.  

America

In and of itself, the Empire State manufacturing survey means little.  However, the disappointment was palpable.  Economists had expected a decline, but the deterioration of sentiment was notable and worrisome if it is representative.  Roughly a third saw conditions improving, and almost a third saw deterioration.  New orders contracted, and the six-month outlook eased.   The Philadelphia Fed survey will be released on Thursday at the same time was weekly jobless claims. The results will be compared.   Ahead of it, though, the US reports July housing starts today (another month of solid gains are expected), and the FOMC minutes from the July meeting will be released (tomorrow).  Those, like ourselves, who expect fresh policy move next month, would hope to seem some groundwork being laid in the minutes.  There are also expectations that at the September FOMC meeting, a formal recognition that the inflation target is symmetrical, meaning that the undershoot will allow it to encourage an overshoot. 

Canada's Finance Minister Morneau resigned.  There are a couple of flashpoints, including Prime Minister Trudeau's fiscal response to the pandemic and desire to get more directly involved.  Also, both Morneau and Trudeau have been caught up in a scandal involving a favoring a charity to which both had ties.  Former Bank of Canada and Bank of England Governor Carney has been consulting with Trudeau, and some see him as a likely successor to Morneau.  Deputy Prime Minister Freeland is also seen as a candidate.  

The political developments in Canada have done no harm to the Canadian dollar, which has continued to march higher.  The US dollar has slipped below CAD1.3160 in the European morning to trade at fresh seven-month lows.  The intraday technicals are stretched.  A bounce toward CAD1.3180-CAD1.3200 would likely be seen as a new opportunity to sell the greenback.  The next chart support is seen a little above CAD1.3100. The US dollar low for the year was set in January near CAD1.2960.  The greenback is also offered against the Mexican peso as it yields yesterday's gains.  Support is seen in the MXN21.85-MXN21.95 area, as the broad dollar weakness and Mexico's attractive rates blunt concerns about its domestic economy.   The Brazilian real will be in focus today.  It was the weakest currency in the world yesterday, and the dollar settled above BRL5.50 for the first time since the end of June.  Concerns about fiscal policy plans with low real rates provided a weak backdrop for concerns over the futures of the market-friendly finance minister (Guedes).  




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International

Fighting the Surveillance State Begins with the Individual

It’s a well-known fact at this point that in the United States and most of the so-called free countries that there is a robust surveillance state in…

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It’s a well-known fact at this point that in the United States and most of the so-called free countries that there is a robust surveillance state in place, collecting data on the entire populace. This has been proven beyond a shadow of a doubt by people like Edward Snowden, a National Security Agency (NSA) whistleblower who exposed that the NSA was conducting mass surveillance on US citizens and the world as a whole. The NSA used applications like those from Prism Systems to piggyback on corporations and the data collection their users had agreed to in the terms of service. Google would scan all emails sent to a Gmail address to use for personalized advertising. The government then went to these companies and demanded the data, and this is what makes the surveillance state so interesting. Neo-Marxists like Shoshana Zuboff have dubbed this “surveillance capitalism.” In China, the mass surveillance is conducted at a loss. Setting up closed-circuit television cameras and hiring government workers to be a mandatory editorial staff for blogs and social media can get quite expensive. But if you parasitically leech off a profitable business practice it means that the surveillance state will turn a profit, which is a great asset and an even greater weakness for the system. You see, when that is what your surveillance state is predicated on you’ve effectively given your subjects an opt-out button. They stop using services that spy on them. There is software and online services that are called “open source,” which refers to software whose code is publicly available and can be viewed by anyone so that you can see exactly what that software does. The opposite of this, and what you’re likely already familiar with, is proprietary software. Open-source software generally markets itself as privacy respecting and doesn’t participate in data collection. Services like that can really undo the tricky situation we’ve found ourselves in. It’s a simple fact of life that when the government is given a power—whether that be to regulate, surveil, tax, or plunder—it is nigh impossible to wrestle it away from the state outside somehow disposing of the state entirely. This is why the issue of undoing mass surveillance is of the utmost importance. If the government has the power to spy on its populace, it will. There are people, like the creators of The Social Dilemma, who think that the solution to these privacy invasions isn’t less government but more government, arguing that data collection should be taxed to dissuade the practice or that regulation needs to be put into place to actively prevent abuses. This is silly to anyone who understands the effect regulations have and how the internet really works. You see, data collection is necessary. You can’t have email without some elements of data collection because it’s simply how the protocol functions. The issue is how that data is stored and used. A tax on data collection itself will simply become another cost of doing business. A large company like Google can afford to pay a tax. But a company like Proton Mail, a smaller, more privacy-respecting business, likely couldn’t. Proton Mail’s business model is based on paid subscriptions. If there were additional taxes imposed on them, it’s possible that they would not be able to afford the cost and would be forced out of the market. To reiterate, if one really cares about the destruction of the surveillance state, the first step is to personally make changes to how you interact with online services and to whom you choose to give your data.

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International

Stock Market Today: Stocks turn higher as Treasury yields retreat; big tech earnings up next

A pullback in Treasury yields has stocks moving higher Monday heading into a busy earnings week and a key 2-year bond auction later on Tuesday.

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Updated at 11:52 am EDT U.S. stocks turned higher Monday, heading into the busiest earnings week of the year on Wall Street, amid a pullback in Treasury bond yields that followed the first breach of 5% for 10-year notes since 2007. Investors, however, continue to track developments in Israel's war with Hamas, which launched its deadly attack from Gaza three weeks ago, as leaders around the region, and the wider world, work to contain the fighting and broker at least a form of cease-fire. Humanitarian aid is also making its way into Gaza, through the territory's border with Egypt, as officials continue to work for the release of more than 200 Israelis taken hostage by Hamas during the October 7 attack. Those diplomatic efforts eased some of the market's concern in overnight trading, but the lingering risk that regional adversaries such as Iran, or even Saudi Arabia, could be drawn into the conflict continues to blunt risk appetite. Still, the U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six global currencies and acts as the safe-haven benchmark in times of market turmoil, fell 0.37% in early New York trading 105.773, suggesting some modest moves into riskier assets. The Japanese yen, however, eased past the 150 mark in overnight dealing, a level that has some traders awaiting intervention from the Bank of Japan and which may have triggered small amounts of dollar sales and yen purchases. In the bond market, benchmark 10-year note yields breached the 5% mark in overnight trading, after briefly surpassing that level late last week for the first time since 2007, but were last seen trading at 4.867% ahead of $141 billion in 2-year, 5-year and 7-year note auctions later this week. Global oil prices were also lower, following two consecutive weekly gains that has take Brent crude, the global pricing benchmark, firmly past $90 a barrel amid supply disruption concerns tied to the middle east conflict. Brent contracts for December delivery were last seen $1.06 lower on the session at $91.07 per barrel while WTI futures contract for the same month fell $1.36 to $86.72 per barrel. Market volatility gauges were also active, with the CBOE Group's VIX index hitting a fresh seven-month high of $23.08 before easing to $20.18 later in the session. That level suggests traders are expecting ranges on the S&P 500 of around 1.26%, or 53 points, over the next month. A busy earnings week also indicates the likelihood of elevated trading volatility, with 158 S&P 500 companies reporting third quarter earnings over the next five days, including mega cap tech names such as Google parent Alphabet  (GOOGL) - Get Free Report, Microsoft  (MSFT) - Get Free Report, retail and cloud computing giant Amazon  (AMZN) - Get Free Report and Facebook owner Meta Platforms  (META) - Get Free Report. "It’s shaping up to be a big week for the market and it comes as the S&P 500 is testing a key level—the four-month low it set earlier this month," said Chris Larkin, managing director for trading and investing at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley. "How the market responds to that test may hinge on sentiment, which often plays a larger-than-average role around this time of year," he added. "And right now, concerns about rising interest rates and geopolitical turmoil have the potential to exacerbate the market’s swings." Heading into the middle of the trading day on Wall Street, the S&P 500, which is down 8% from its early July peak, the highest of the year, was up 10 points, or 0.25%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which slumped into negative territory for the year last week, was marked 10 points lower while the Nasdaq, which fell 4.31% last week, was up 66 points, or 0.51%. In overseas markets, Europe's Stoxx 600 was marked 0.11% lower by the close of Frankfurt trading, with markets largely tracking U.S. stocks as well as the broader conflict in Israel. In Asia, a  slump in China stocks took the benchmark CSI 300 to a fresh 2019 low and pulled the region-wide MSCI ex-Japan 0.72% lower into the close of trading.
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Forget Ron DeSantis: Walt Disney has a much bigger problem

The company’s political woes are a sideshow to the one key issue Bob Iger has to solve.

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Walt Disney has a massive, but solvable, problem.

The company's current skirmishes with Florida Gov. DeSantis get a lot of headlines, but they're not having a major impact on the company's bottom line.

Related: What the Bud Light boycott means for Disney, Target, and Starbucks

DeSantis has made Walt Disney (DIS) - Get Free Report a target in what he calls his war on woke, an effort to win right-wing support as he tries to secure the Republican Party nomination for president. 

That effort has generated plenty of press and multiple lawsuits tied to the governor's takeover of the former Reedy Creek Improvement District, Disney's legislated self-governance operation. But it has not hurt revenue at the company's massive Florida theme-park complex.  

Disney Chief Executive Bob Iger addressed the matter during the company's third-quarter-earnings call, without directly mentioning DeSantis.

"Walt Disney World is still performing well above precovid levels: 21% higher in revenue and 29% higher in operating income compared to fiscal 2019," he said. 

And "following a number of recent changes we've implemented, we continue to see positive guest-experience ratings in our theme parks, including Walt Disney World, and positive indicators for guests looking to book future visits."

The theme parks are not Disney's problem. The death of the movie business is, however, a hurdle that Iger has yet to show that the company has a plan to clear.

Boba Fett starred in a show on Disney+.

Image source: Walt Disney

Disney needs a plan to monetize content 

In 2019 Walt Disney drew in more $11 billion in global box office, or $13 billion when you add in the former Fox properties it also owns. In that year seven Mouse House films crossed the billion-dollar threshold in theaters, according to data from Box Office Mojo.

This year, the company will struggle to reach half that and it has no billion-dollar films, with "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3" closing its theatrical run at $845 million globally. 

(That's actually good for third place this year, as only "Barbie" and "The Super Mario Bros. Movie" have broken the billion-dollar mark and they may be the only two films to do that this year.)

In the precovid world Disney could release two Pixar movies, three Marvel films, a live-action remake of an animated classic, and maybe one other film that each would be nearly guaranteed to earn $1 billion at the box office.

That's simply not how the movie business works anymore. While theaters may remain part of Disney's plan to monetize its content, the past isn't coming back. Theaters may remain a piece of the movie-release puzzle, but 2023 isn't an anomaly or a bad release schedule.

Consumers have big TVs at home and they're more than happy to watch most films on them.

Disney owns the IP but charges too little

People aren't less interested in Marvel and Star Wars; they're just getting their fix from Disney+ at an absurdly low price. 

Over the past couple of months through the next few weeks, I will have watched about seven hours of premium Star Wars content and five hours of top-tier Marvel content with "Ahsoka" and "Loki" respectively. 

Before the covid pandemic, I gladly would have paid theater prices for each movie in those respective universes. Now, I have consumed about six movies worth of premium content for less than the price of two movie tickets.

By making its premium content television shows available on a service that people can buy for $7.99 a month Disney has devalued its most valuable asset, its intellectual property. 

Consumers have shown that they will pay the $10 to $15 cost of a movie ticket to see what happens next in the Marvel Cinematic Universe or the Star Wars galaxy. But the company has offered top-tier content from those franchises at a lower price.

Iger needs to find a way to replace billions of dollars in lost box office, but charging less for the company's content makes no sense. 

Now, some fans likely won't pay triple the price for Disney+. But if it were to bundle a direct-to-consumer ESPN along with content that currently gets released to movie theaters, Disney might create a package that it can price in a way that reflects the value of its IP.

Consumers want Disney's content and they will likely pay more for it. Iger simply has to find a way to make that happen.

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