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Canada has bungled trade deals with India in the past. Could COVID and China finally unite the two?

The possible revival of trade talks between the European Union and India could be a positive signal for Canada, which, like Europe, has struggled to convince Asia’s third-biggest economy to embrace freer trade.

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The possible revival of trade talks between the European Union and India could be a positive signal for Canada, which, like Europe, has struggled to convince Asia’s third-biggest economy to embrace freer trade.

Various news outlets reported this week that officials from the EU and India were getting close to announcing the resumption of trade talks that have been on ice since 2013. An agreement between the two would be a major development, as it would unite the world’s richest economic bloc with a country that is on track to leapfrog China as the most populous nation on the planet before the end of the decade.

Canada knows a thing or two about stalled negotiations with India. The two countries initiated formal discussions in 2010, but after 10 rounds of talks over seven years had failed to produce a breakthrough, the effort lost momentum. Official negotiations were last held in New Delhi in August 2017, although the trade department says several “stocktaking meetings” have been held since, most recently in November.

“Eleven years of frequent flier points is what we have to show for that,” said Rohinton Medhora, president of the Centre for International Governance Innovation, which, in 2018, joined with Gateway House, a Mumbai-based think-tank, to study ways that the Canada-India relationship could be strengthened.

Still, Medhora said he saw a glimmer of hope for Canada in the apparent shift in India’s willingness to engage with the EU. So did Stewart Beck, Canada’s former high commissioner to India from 2010 to 2014, who said a breakthrough between Europe and India would “augur well” for Canada’s prospects. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau pledged in 2018 to increase overseas exports by 50 per cent by 2025, and he’s directed his various trade ministers to put a particular emphasis on Asia, which has become the driver of much of the world’s economic growth.

Two conditions have changed since trade talks stalled between India and Canada. The first is shared anxieties over China’s newfound willingness to throw its weight around. Canadian tensions with China have heightened since Beijing arbitrarily jailed two Canadian citizens, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor. It was an apparent retaliation for the arrest in Vancouver of Chinese business executive Meng Wanzhou after Canadian authorities received an extradition request from the U.S. government in 2018. On the Indian side, fatal border skirmishes in the Himalayas last year have intensified the decades-long animosity between the two Asian nuclear powers, which fought a war in 1962.

The second big change is a mutual desire to reconstruct economies that crumbled when tested by the COVID-19 pandemic. Both countries have signalled that they intend to reduce their dependence on supply chains that run through China by seeking out other sources for vital goods and services. In other words, stumbling blocks that loomed large a few years ago could be less daunting now, as national priorities have been rearranged by the crisis.

 European Council President Charles Michel, top, takes part in a virtual summit with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in Brussels in July, 2020. Various news outlets reported this week that officials from the EU and India were getting close to announcing the resumption of trade talks that have been on ice since 2013.

India has “already gone a long way down the road with the EU,” said Beck, who is now president of the Vancouver-based Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada. “They’ve gone a long way down the road with us. So rekindling the conversation and going back to the table isn’t a difficult exercise, and particularly if they demonstrate some degree of sincerity.”

Sincerity will indeed be a key factor to watch for both parties. India is the world’s largest market of vegetarians and Canada is its biggest supplier of plant-based protein. Yet Canada and other pulse exporters have faced steep tariffs on peas, lentils, and chickpeas since 2017 for no apparent reason other than India’s desire to protect local farmers from foreign competition. A trade agreement that levelled the playing field would help “incredibly,” said Mac Ross, the director of market access and trade policy at Pulse Canada.

Conversely, India “doesn’t take kindly” to the federal government’s tendency to play diaspora politics, currying to the large Punjabi-Canadian population, said Vivek Dehejia, a Carleton University economist with a specialty in international trade. For example, Justin Trudeau in December said he supported peaceful protest as Indian farmers took on tear gas and water cannons — a comment that irritated members of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government and summoned Nadir Patel, the current Canadian high commissioner, to the Indian foreign ministry for a reprimanding.

“India, as a sovereign state, doesn’t take kindly to anyone sort of appearing to comment on their internal affairs,” Dehejia said “There’s a certain prickliness and sensitivity” that’s justified, he said.

 Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, left, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi shake hands before a meeting in New Delhi on Feb. 23, 2018.

The South Asian country’s invitation to participate in the G7 summit this year offers a chance for Canada to improve relations. Foreign Affairs Minister Marc Garneau said Wednesday that he had a “very successful” exchange with his Indian counterpart on the sidelines of a meeting of G7 foreign affairs ministers in London. Garneau said he and Subrahmanyam Jaishankar talked about increasing trade between their two countries, but declined to provide further details.

Politicians perennially describe Canada and India as natural trading partners, a notion that has yet to show up in the data. Canada’s trade imbalance with India has widened since the start of the pandemic. In April, the deficit grew by just over half from March to $185.9 million. Statistics Canada’s latest data show that in 2020, trade with India amounted to less than one per cent of Canada’s total. Most of what Canada sends to the South Asian country consist of metal ores and non-metallic minerals, followed by agricultural products such as lentils and chickpeas and energy products like coal.

 Pea crop in Saskatchewan. Most of what Canada sends to India is metal ores and non-metallic minerals, followed by agricultural products such as lentils and chickpeas and energy products like coal.

 

If Canada and India do return the negotiating table, Canada would be seeking a “21st century trade agreement” that goes beyond mere tariff reduction schedules, though it will aim to overcome India’s high tariff walls, Beck said. He added that it’s important that Canada secures favourable agreement on services and intellectual property. Factoring those two aspects into free trade agreements would bolster the government’s push to harness the country’s intangible assets to drive economic growth.

Meanwhile, Medhora sees huge potential in Canada’s green energy and investment sectors to enter India, pointing out that Canadian pension funds are already present there and contribute to infrastructure development.

Though he’s hopeful about positive talks, the former high commissioner recognizes it could be “a big challenge” for Indian negotiators to approach a more complex deal because the country, which under Modi stalled numerous trade pursuits, hasn’t completed many of those types of deals. “Whether we’d put a little water in our wine,” Beck said, in order to secure an agreement, “that’s the question.”

However, optimism around India’s revitalized trade pursuits isn’t universal. Dehejia is skeptical that an EU-India deal would come about, as the bloc went through 14 rounds of negotiation before talks collapsed. He believes a similar situation could occur in Canada but he’s not so certain India would even bother entertaining talks with Canada as the populous country is focused on scratching out agreements with bigger economic players, like the U.S. and U.K.

“Canada is not as important to them,” Dehejia said. “If you talk to the people who are in the foreign policy establishment in India, they really want to be at the big table, play in the big leagues.”

If the EU and India do begin negotiating, and if those talks do fizzle, Medhora said that could, however, provide all the more impetus for India to pursue a deal with “a smaller player” as it seeks to stake out some of China’s dominance.

“It may be in India’s best interest to demonstrate that it can still do business with a western country,” he said.

• Email: bbharti@postmedia.com | Twitter:

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There will soon be one million seats on this popular Amtrak route

“More people are taking the train than ever before,” says Amtrak’s Executive Vice President.

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While the size of the United States makes it hard for it to compete with the inter-city train access available in places like Japan and many European countries, Amtrak trains are a very popular transportation option in certain pockets of the country — so much so that the country’s national railway company is expanding its Northeast Corridor by more than one million seats.

Related: This is what it's like to take a 19-hour train from New York to Chicago

Running from Boston all the way south to Washington, D.C., the route is one of the most popular as it passes through the most densely populated part of the country and serves as a commuter train for those who need to go between East Coast cities such as New York and Philadelphia for business.

Veronika Bondarenko captured this photo of New York’s Moynihan Train Hall. 

Veronika Bondarenko

Amtrak launches new routes, promises travelers ‘additional travel options’

Earlier this month, Amtrak announced that it was adding four additional Northeastern routes to its schedule — two more routes between New York’s Penn Station and Union Station in Washington, D.C. on the weekend, a new early-morning weekday route between New York and Philadelphia’s William H. Gray III 30th Street Station and a weekend route between Philadelphia and Boston’s South Station.

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According to Amtrak, these additions will increase Northeast Corridor’s service by 20% on the weekdays and 10% on the weekends for a total of one million additional seats when counted by how many will ride the corridor over the year.

“More people are taking the train than ever before and we’re proud to offer our customers additional travel options when they ride with us on the Northeast Regional,” Amtrak Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer Eliot Hamlisch said in a statement on the new routes. “The Northeast Regional gets you where you want to go comfortably, conveniently and sustainably as you breeze past traffic on I-95 for a more enjoyable travel experience.”

Here are some of the other Amtrak changes you can expect to see

Amtrak also said that, in the 2023 financial year, the Northeast Corridor had nearly 9.2 million riders — 8% more than it had pre-pandemic and a 29% increase from 2022. The higher demand, particularly during both off-peak hours and the time when many business travelers use to get to work, is pushing Amtrak to invest into this corridor in particular.

To reach more customers, Amtrak has also made several changes to both its routes and pricing system. In the fall of 2023, it introduced a type of new “Night Owl Fare” — if traveling during very late or very early hours, one can go between cities like New York and Philadelphia or Philadelphia and Washington. D.C. for $5 to $15.

As travel on the same routes during peak hours can reach as much as $300, this was a deliberate move to reach those who have the flexibility of time and might have otherwise preferred more affordable methods of transportation such as the bus. After seeing strong uptake, Amtrak added this type of fare to more Boston routes.

The largest distances, such as the ones between Boston and New York or New York and Washington, are available at the lowest rate for $20.

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The next pandemic? It’s already here for Earth’s wildlife

Bird flu is decimating species already threatened by climate change and habitat loss.

I am a conservation biologist who studies emerging infectious diseases. When people ask me what I think the next pandemic will be I often say that we are in the midst of one – it’s just afflicting a great many species more than ours.

I am referring to the highly pathogenic strain of avian influenza H5N1 (HPAI H5N1), otherwise known as bird flu, which has killed millions of birds and unknown numbers of mammals, particularly during the past three years.

This is the strain that emerged in domestic geese in China in 1997 and quickly jumped to humans in south-east Asia with a mortality rate of around 40-50%. My research group encountered the virus when it killed a mammal, an endangered Owston’s palm civet, in a captive breeding programme in Cuc Phuong National Park Vietnam in 2005.

How these animals caught bird flu was never confirmed. Their diet is mainly earthworms, so they had not been infected by eating diseased poultry like many captive tigers in the region.

This discovery prompted us to collate all confirmed reports of fatal infection with bird flu to assess just how broad a threat to wildlife this virus might pose.

This is how a newly discovered virus in Chinese poultry came to threaten so much of the world’s biodiversity.

H5N1 originated on a Chinese poultry farm in 1997. ChameleonsEye/Shutterstock

The first signs

Until December 2005, most confirmed infections had been found in a few zoos and rescue centres in Thailand and Cambodia. Our analysis in 2006 showed that nearly half (48%) of all the different groups of birds (known to taxonomists as “orders”) contained a species in which a fatal infection of bird flu had been reported. These 13 orders comprised 84% of all bird species.

We reasoned 20 years ago that the strains of H5N1 circulating were probably highly pathogenic to all bird orders. We also showed that the list of confirmed infected species included those that were globally threatened and that important habitats, such as Vietnam’s Mekong delta, lay close to reported poultry outbreaks.

Mammals known to be susceptible to bird flu during the early 2000s included primates, rodents, pigs and rabbits. Large carnivores such as Bengal tigers and clouded leopards were reported to have been killed, as well as domestic cats.

Our 2006 paper showed the ease with which this virus crossed species barriers and suggested it might one day produce a pandemic-scale threat to global biodiversity.

Unfortunately, our warnings were correct.

A roving sickness

Two decades on, bird flu is killing species from the high Arctic to mainland Antarctica.

In the past couple of years, bird flu has spread rapidly across Europe and infiltrated North and South America, killing millions of poultry and a variety of bird and mammal species. A recent paper found that 26 countries have reported at least 48 mammal species that have died from the virus since 2020, when the latest increase in reported infections started.

Not even the ocean is safe. Since 2020, 13 species of aquatic mammal have succumbed, including American sea lions, porpoises and dolphins, often dying in their thousands in South America. A wide range of scavenging and predatory mammals that live on land are now also confirmed to be susceptible, including mountain lions, lynx, brown, black and polar bears.

The UK alone has lost over 75% of its great skuas and seen a 25% decline in northern gannets. Recent declines in sandwich terns (35%) and common terns (42%) were also largely driven by the virus.

Scientists haven’t managed to completely sequence the virus in all affected species. Research and continuous surveillance could tell us how adaptable it ultimately becomes, and whether it can jump to even more species. We know it can already infect humans – one or more genetic mutations may make it more infectious.

At the crossroads

Between January 1 2003 and December 21 2023, 882 cases of human infection with the H5N1 virus were reported from 23 countries, of which 461 (52%) were fatal.

Of these fatal cases, more than half were in Vietnam, China, Cambodia and Laos. Poultry-to-human infections were first recorded in Cambodia in December 2003. Intermittent cases were reported until 2014, followed by a gap until 2023, yielding 41 deaths from 64 cases. The subtype of H5N1 virus responsible has been detected in poultry in Cambodia since 2014. In the early 2000s, the H5N1 virus circulating had a high human mortality rate, so it is worrying that we are now starting to see people dying after contact with poultry again.

It’s not just H5 subtypes of bird flu that concern humans. The H10N1 virus was originally isolated from wild birds in South Korea, but has also been reported in samples from China and Mongolia.

Recent research found that these particular virus subtypes may be able to jump to humans after they were found to be pathogenic in laboratory mice and ferrets. The first person who was confirmed to be infected with H10N5 died in China on January 27 2024, but this patient was also suffering from seasonal flu (H3N2). They had been exposed to live poultry which also tested positive for H10N5.

Species already threatened with extinction are among those which have died due to bird flu in the past three years. The first deaths from the virus in mainland Antarctica have just been confirmed in skuas, highlighting a looming threat to penguin colonies whose eggs and chicks skuas prey on. Humboldt penguins have already been killed by the virus in Chile.

A colony of king penguins.
Remote penguin colonies are already threatened by climate change. AndreAnita/Shutterstock

How can we stem this tsunami of H5N1 and other avian influenzas? Completely overhaul poultry production on a global scale. Make farms self-sufficient in rearing eggs and chicks instead of exporting them internationally. The trend towards megafarms containing over a million birds must be stopped in its tracks.

To prevent the worst outcomes for this virus, we must revisit its primary source: the incubator of intensive poultry farms.

Diana Bell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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This is the biggest money mistake you’re making during travel

A retail expert talks of some common money mistakes travelers make on their trips.

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Travel is expensive. Despite the explosion of travel demand in the two years since the world opened up from the pandemic, survey after survey shows that financial reasons are the biggest factor keeping some from taking their desired trips.

Airfare, accommodation as well as food and entertainment during the trip have all outpaced inflation over the last four years.

Related: This is why we're still spending an insane amount of money on travel

But while there are multiple tricks and “travel hacks” for finding cheaper plane tickets and accommodation, the biggest financial mistake that leads to blown travel budgets is much smaller and more insidious.

A traveler watches a plane takeoff at an airport gate.

Jeshoots on Unsplash

This is what you should (and shouldn’t) spend your money on while abroad

“When it comes to traveling, it's hard to resist buying items so you can have a piece of that memory at home,” Kristen Gall, a retail expert who heads the financial planning section at points-back platform Rakuten, told Travel + Leisure in an interview. “However, it's important to remember that you don't need every souvenir that catches your eye.”

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According to Gall, souvenirs not only have a tendency to add up in price but also weight which can in turn require one to pay for extra weight or even another suitcase at the airport — over the last two months, airlines like Delta  (DAL) , American Airlines  (AAL)  and JetBlue Airways  (JBLU)  have all followed each other in increasing baggage prices to in some cases as much as $60 for a first bag and $100 for a second one.

While such extras may not seem like a lot compared to the thousands one might have spent on the hotel and ticket, they all have what is sometimes known as a “coffee” or “takeout effect” in which small expenses can lead one to overspend by a large amount.

‘Save up for one special thing rather than a bunch of trinkets…’

“When traveling abroad, I recommend only purchasing items that you can't get back at home, or that are small enough to not impact your luggage weight,” Gall said. “If you’re set on bringing home a souvenir, save up for one special thing, rather than wasting your money on a bunch of trinkets you may not think twice about once you return home.”

Along with the immediate costs, there is also the risk of purchasing things that go to waste when returning home from an international vacation. Alcohol is subject to airlines’ liquid rules while certain types of foods, particularly meat and other animal products, can be confiscated by customs. 

While one incident of losing an expensive bottle of liquor or cheese brought back from a country like France will often make travelers forever careful, those who travel internationally less frequently will often be unaware of specific rules and be forced to part with something they spent money on at the airport.

“It's important to keep in mind that you're going to have to travel back with everything you purchased,” Gall continued. “[…] Be careful when buying food or wine, as it may not make it through customs. Foods like chocolate are typically fine, but items like meat and produce are likely prohibited to come back into the country.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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