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Can COVID-19 teach us something for the road safety epidemic?

Can COVID-19 teach us something for the road safety epidemic?

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View over the main thoroughfare in Bissau, Guinea Bissau. Photo: Arne Hoel/World Bank
View over the main thoroughfare in Bissau, Guinea Bissau. Photo: Arne Hoel/World Bank

As the world struggles through the tragic COVID-19 pandemic, it may be also worth considering another health crisis, which has been silently going on for decades. COVID-19 and road crashes wreak suffering, loss, death, grief, and economic hardship. COVID-19 has already killed 119,000 with more to come especially as the pandemic hits low- and middle-income countries with low capacity to manage the crisis. Road crashes kill 1.35 million people and injure up to another 50 million people each year.

Various comparisons between COVID-19 and road crash deaths are being made, some suggesting that the scale of the road safety problem puts the seriousness of the COVID-19 crisis in perspective. Rather than comparing the extent of suffering and death wrought by these two horrific causes, there may be broader lessons we can learn to save many lives and much future suffering. Six such lessons for consideration after COVID-19 is gone, for the future of transport, work, and cities are suggested here.

1. Reducing exposure to road transport. While lockdowns have had enormous economic and social impacts, the benefits of reduced transport identified during lockdowns are profound and go beyond valuable decreases in road crash deaths and disabling injuries. These impacts on transport bring into sharp focus the value of exposure reduction as an intervention for road safety. Up to now, exposure reduction has been largely overlooked because road safety has been too narrowly focused on the road transport system itself. Moreover, reducing motorized private road transport brings a host of other benefits: less green-house gas emissions as well as noise and air pollution, greater opportunities for active transport, greater social inclusion and connection. We should seize on the future opportunities to capture these benefits as we re-think cities, mass transit options such as metros, water transport, and dedicated bus rapid transit systems in the aftermath of the pandemic.

2. Re-envisioning our working lives, transport and infrastructure. Many roles cannot be done from home. Nonetheless, creative adjustment has allowed many more of us to do so, from online classes in schools and universities to consultations with doctors, and many office jobs. In many cases working from home proved to be more effective than expected, presenting an opportunity to re-think the way our societies operate, with benefits that go beyond working from home. There are vital psychological aspects to this. Lengthy home-based work is possible now in part because of relationships we have built prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly through face-to-face meetings. However, face-to-face meetings do not require being in the office five days a week. It is possible to envision a world in which people physically go to work two days a week and concentrate face-to-face meetings into those days.  We may even improve our use of non-verbal cues in electronic communications to strengthen empathy and bonds of trust in distance communications.

This could open opportunities for extraordinary re-design of our work and cities: Perhaps whole buildings could be ‘Hot Buildings’ instead of just a few hot desks. Companies could share office buildings, with selective security on intellectual and other property. Education could permanently become a greater mix of online and in-person experience, acknowledging that the latter will be essential for many aspects of education. The already developing move to online retail may accelerate.

All of this would impact transport deeply. Reducing the need for commuting and other travel may allow stronger incentives (or even regulation) to boost mass transit. Public transport would have less trips to manage and incentivize, though there would still be costs. Without such policy interventions, the share of commuters using private motorized transport may increase because of less traffic and congestion. To manage this, public space may be redesigned to reduce road space and allow its repurposing for more active modes of transport and separating micro-mobility for safety. Less commuting days may also change proximity to work as a factor residential real estate values more accessible, facilitating a broader array of lifestyles. Future family dynamics may evolve with more parenting at home. (There may be downsides to manage: domestic violence has increased with COVID-19.)

3. Maintaining our values. Failure to act powerfully on the road safety crisis which results in so many deaths does not warrant a lack of effort to save lives in the COVID-19, or any other, crisis. These arguments entice us away from the core values we might well strive to maintain, critically including the value of human life. In any potential crisis – whether it be COVID-19, road crashes, or lifestyle diseases, one death is one too many.

4. Embracing system accountability instead of touting individual responsibility. As a society we will be well served by appreciating that the numbers of people dying from crashes or COVID-19 are both largely determined by political decisions, and the blaming of individuals. This has been a common response to both COVID-19 and road crash deaths. Prior to lockdown orders, adopting social distancing measures has been left to individual responsibility. Similarly, in many cases politicians have transferred accountability for crash deaths by claiming that they simply result from people being irresponsible. Reliance on individual responsibility has been shown repeatedly to fail us, including for road safety and COVID-19. We are all imperfect - we all sometimes misjudge risk, make mistakes, and in various circumstances focus on our immediate desires instead of the broader good. Thus, we speed, take other risks, or we simply make mistakes. It may only take a momentary lapse of concentration to cause a fatal crash. As social beings who like to be with our friends, it may only take one inadvertent slip of social distancing or one visit with an asymptomatic friend to spread COVID-19. The victims may be entirely innocent: being hit by a driver who is speeding, or living with a person who has not followed social distancing.

Individual responsibility can help, but our collective health should not rely on every imperfect human knowing what to do, wanting to do it, and succeeding in doing it without error. Politicians can fix these situations, on the one hand with safer roads—including crash barriers, safer vehicles, and safer speeds—which reduce the results of human error from death to property damage, and on the other hand effectively enforcing lockdowns which greatly reduce infection rates and managing the risk of deaths from health systems overrun by COVID-19 cases.

5. Addressing the political dimension. Road safety has traditionally lacked political salience. We must learn from the effective community pressure applied for stronger public policies on COVID-19, including stronger advocacy for economic benefits. Road safety may gain from strongly holding politicians to account for road crash deaths, instead of our currently pervasive victim-blaming. In both crises, arguments for not locking down or for high road travel speeds have been naïvely based on lack of evidence. The COVID-19 experience has shown how disastrous this is. Analyses identifying the economic cost of pandemics and the economic value of lockdowns have received prominent mainstream, expert, and social media support. Similar analyses of the economic costs of road crash deaths and injuries, the economic costs of higher speeds, and the net economic benefits of lower speeds, have received much less attention. Scientific inquiry and advice on road safety are too often marginalized and the problem taken as intractable. For COVID-19, expert advice has been heeded, albeit too slowly in some cases, with trillions of dollars committed to the cause and supporting economies through the crisis. One difference which may facilitate the influence of science for COVID-19 is that it is an infectious disease, a class of problems on which we are in the habit of accepting scientific medical advice.

6. Developing stronger deterrence of lockdown breaches. Finally, the COVID-19 response also has something to learn from the road safety epidemic. Management of more effective lockdowns that minimize detection avoidance and maximize deterrence of social gatherings may draw lessons from successful cases in which road crashes were reduced by well-publicized, rigorous enforcement. Well-researched communications and enforcement not only transform behaviors but also enhance social norms. Social pressure may also help: Those not following lockdowns are extending the ordeal period for everyone, just as speeding adds risk for surrounding road users.

 

The current dramatic experience with COVID-19 provides guidance on re-design of our work and cities as well as generating revamped government accountability for health externalities caused by traffic, particularly road crashes and fatalities. Along with all the suffering, loss, and upheaval of COVID-19, we have the opportunity to evolve.

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Dr. Soames Job

Dr. Soames Job, BA (Honours 1), PhD, GAICD, FACRS

Head of the Global Road Safety Facility (GRSF)

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Survey Shows Declining Concerns Among Americans About COVID-19

Survey Shows Declining Concerns Among Americans About COVID-19

A new survey reveals that only 20% of Americans view covid-19 as "a major threat"…

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Survey Shows Declining Concerns Among Americans About COVID-19

A new survey reveals that only 20% of Americans view covid-19 as "a major threat" to the health of the US population - a sharp decline from a high of 67% in July 2020.

(SARMDY/Shutterstock)

What's more, the Pew Research Center survey conducted from Feb. 7 to Feb. 11 showed that just 10% of Americans are concerned that they will  catch the disease and require hospitalization.

"This data represents a low ebb of public concern about the virus that reached its height in the summer and fall of 2020, when as many as two-thirds of Americans viewed COVID-19 as a major threat to public health," reads the report, which was published March 7.

According to the survey, half of the participants understand the significance of researchers and healthcare providers in understanding and treating long COVID - however 27% of participants consider this issue less important, while 22% of Americans are unaware of long COVID.

What's more, while Democrats were far more worried than Republicans in the past, that gap has narrowed significantly.

"In the pandemic’s first year, Democrats were routinely about 40 points more likely than Republicans to view the coronavirus as a major threat to the health of the U.S. population. This gap has waned as overall levels of concern have fallen," reads the report.

More via the Epoch Times;

The survey found that three in ten Democrats under 50 have received an updated COVID-19 vaccine, compared with 66 percent of Democrats ages 65 and older.

Moreover, 66 percent of Democrats ages 65 and older have received the updated COVID-19 vaccine, while only 24 percent of Republicans ages 65 and older have done so.

“This 42-point partisan gap is much wider now than at other points since the start of the outbreak. For instance, in August 2021, 93 percent of older Democrats and 78 percent of older Republicans said they had received all the shots needed to be fully vaccinated (a 15-point gap),” it noted.

COVID-19 No Longer an Emergency

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently issued its updated recommendations for the virus, which no longer require people to stay home for five days after testing positive for COVID-19.

The updated guidance recommends that people who contracted a respiratory virus stay home, and they can resume normal activities when their symptoms improve overall and their fever subsides for 24 hours without medication.

“We still must use the commonsense solutions we know work to protect ourselves and others from serious illness from respiratory viruses, this includes vaccination, treatment, and staying home when we get sick,” CDC director Dr. Mandy Cohen said in a statement.

The CDC said that while the virus remains a threat, it is now less likely to cause severe illness because of widespread immunity and improved tools to prevent and treat the disease.

Importantly, states and countries that have already adjusted recommended isolation times have not seen increased hospitalizations or deaths related to COVID-19,” it stated.

The federal government suspended its free at-home COVID-19 test program on March 8, according to a website set up by the government, following a decrease in COVID-19-related hospitalizations.

According to the CDC, hospitalization rates for COVID-19 and influenza diseases remain “elevated” but are decreasing in some parts of the United States.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/10/2024 - 22:45

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Rand Paul Teases Senate GOP Leader Run – Musk Says “I Would Support”

Rand Paul Teases Senate GOP Leader Run – Musk Says "I Would Support"

Republican Kentucky Senator Rand Paul on Friday hinted that he may jump…

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Rand Paul Teases Senate GOP Leader Run - Musk Says "I Would Support"

Republican Kentucky Senator Rand Paul on Friday hinted that he may jump into the race to become the next Senate GOP leader, and Elon Musk was quick to support the idea. Republicans must find a successor for periodically malfunctioning Mitch McConnell, who recently announced he'll step down in November, though intending to keep his Senate seat until his term ends in January 2027, when he'd be within weeks of turning 86. 

So far, the announced field consists of two quintessential establishment types: John Cornyn of Texas and John Thune of South Dakota. While John Barrasso's name had been thrown around as one of "The Three Johns" considered top contenders, the Wyoming senator on Tuesday said he'll instead seek the number two slot as party whip. 

Paul used X to tease his potential bid for the position which -- if the GOP takes back the upper chamber in November -- could graduate from Minority Leader to Majority Leader. He started by telling his 5.1 million followers he'd had lots of people asking him about his interest in running...

...then followed up with a poll in which he predictably annihilated Cornyn and Thune, taking a 96% share as of Friday night, with the other two below 2% each. 

Elon Musk was quick to back the idea of Paul as GOP leader, while daring Cornyn and Thune to follow Paul's lead by throwing their names out for consideration by the Twitter-verse X-verse. 

Paul has been a stalwart opponent of security-state mass surveillance, foreign interventionism -- to include shoveling billions of dollars into the proxy war in Ukraine -- and out-of-control spending in general. He demonstrated the latter passion on the Senate floor this week as he ridiculed the latest kick-the-can spending package:   

In February, Paul used Senate rules to force his colleagues into a grueling Super Bowl weekend of votes, as he worked to derail a $95 billion foreign aid bill. "I think we should stay here as long as it takes,” said Paul. “If it takes a week or a month, I’ll force them to stay here to discuss why they think the border of Ukraine is more important than the US border.”

Don't expect a Majority Leader Paul to ditch the filibuster -- he's been a hardy user of the legislative delay tactic. In 2013, he spoke for 13 hours to fight the nomination of John Brennan as CIA director. In 2015, he orated for 10-and-a-half-hours to oppose extension of the Patriot Act

Rand Paul amid his 10 1/2 hour filibuster in 2015

Among the general public, Paul is probably best known as Capitol Hill's chief tormentor of Dr. Anthony Fauci, who was director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease during the Covid-19 pandemic. Paul says the evidence indicates the virus emerged from China's Wuhan Institute of Virology. He's accused Fauci and other members of the US government public health apparatus of evading questions about their funding of the Chinese lab's "gain of function" research, which takes natural viruses and morphs them into something more dangerous. Paul has pointedly said that Fauci committed perjury in congressional hearings and that he belongs in jail "without question."   

Musk is neither the only nor the first noteworthy figure to back Paul for party leader. Just hours after McConnell announced his upcoming step-down from leadership, independent 2024 presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr voiced his support: 

In a testament to the extent to which the establishment recoils at the libertarian-minded Paul, mainstream media outlets -- which have been quick to report on other developments in the majority leader race -- pretended not to notice that Paul had signaled his interest in the job. More than 24 hours after Paul's test-the-waters tweet-fest began, not a single major outlet had brought it to the attention of their audience. 

That may be his strongest endorsement yet. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/10/2024 - 20:25

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The Great Replacement Loophole: Illegal Immigrants Score 5-Year Work Benefit While “Waiting” For Deporation, Asylum

The Great Replacement Loophole: Illegal Immigrants Score 5-Year Work Benefit While "Waiting" For Deporation, Asylum

Over the past several…

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The Great Replacement Loophole: Illegal Immigrants Score 5-Year Work Benefit While "Waiting" For Deporation, Asylum

Over the past several months we've pointed out that there has  been zero job creation for native-born workers since the summer of 2018...

... and that since Joe Biden was sworn into office, most of the post-pandemic job gains the administration continuously brags about have gone foreign-born (read immigrants, mostly illegal ones) workers.

And while the left might find this data almost as verboten as FBI crime statistics - as it directly supports the so-called "great replacement theory" we're not supposed to discuss - it also coincides with record numbers of illegal crossings into the United States under Biden.

In short, the Biden administration opened the floodgates, 10 million illegal immigrants poured into the country, and most of the post-pandemic "jobs recovery" went to foreign-born workers, of which illegal immigrants represent the largest chunk.

Asylum seekers from Venezuela await work permits on June 28, 2023 (via the Chicago Tribune)

'But Tyler, illegal immigrants can't possibly work in the United States whilst awaiting their asylum hearings,' one might hear from the peanut gallery. On the contrary: ever since Biden reversed a key aspect of Trump's labor policies, all illegal immigrants - even those awaiting deportation proceedings - have been given carte blanche to work while awaiting said proceedings for up to five years...

... something which even Elon Musk was shocked to learn.

Which leads us to another question: recall that the primary concern for the Biden admin for much of 2022 and 2023 was soaring prices, i.e., relentless inflation in general, and rising wages in particular, which in turn prompted even Goldman to admit two years ago that the diabolical wage-price spiral had been unleashed in the US (diabolical, because nothing absent a major economic shock, read recession or depression, can short-circuit it once it is in place).

Well, there is one other thing that can break the wage-price spiral loop: a flood of ultra-cheap illegal immigrant workers. But don't take our word for it: here is Fed Chair Jerome Powell himself during his February 60 Minutes interview:

PELLEY: Why was immigration important?

POWELL: Because, you know, immigrants come in, and they tend to work at a rate that is at or above that for non-immigrants. Immigrants who come to the country tend to be in the workforce at a slightly higher level than native Americans do. But that's largely because of the age difference. They tend to skew younger.

PELLEY: Why is immigration so important to the economy?

POWELL: Well, first of all, immigration policy is not the Fed's job. The immigration policy of the United States is really important and really much under discussion right now, and that's none of our business. We don't set immigration policy. We don't comment on it.

I will say, over time, though, the U.S. economy has benefited from immigration. And, frankly, just in the last, year a big part of the story of the labor market coming back into better balance is immigration returning to levels that were more typical of the pre-pandemic era.

PELLEY: The country needed the workers.

POWELL: It did. And so, that's what's been happening.

Translation: Immigrants work hard, and Americans are lazy. But much more importantly, since illegal immigrants will work for any pay, and since Biden's Department of Homeland Security, via its Citizenship and Immigration Services Agency, has made it so illegal immigrants can work in the US perfectly legally for up to 5 years (if not more), one can argue that the flood of illegals through the southern border has been the primary reason why inflation - or rather mostly wage inflation, that all too critical component of the wage-price spiral  - has moderated in in the past year, when the US labor market suddenly found itself flooded with millions of perfectly eligible workers, who just also happen to be illegal immigrants and thus have zero wage bargaining options.

None of this is to suggest that the relentless flood of immigrants into the US is not also driven by voting and census concerns - something Elon Musk has been pounding the table on in recent weeks, and has gone so far to call it "the biggest corruption of American democracy in the 21st century", but in retrospect, one can also argue that the only modest success the Biden admin has had in the past year - namely bringing inflation down from a torrid 9% annual rate to "only" 3% - has also been due to the millions of illegals he's imported into the country.

We would be remiss if we didn't also note that this so often carries catastrophic short-term consequences for the social fabric of the country (the Laken Riley fiasco being only the latest example), not to mention the far more dire long-term consequences for the future of the US - chief among them the trillions of dollars in debt the US will need to incur to pay for all those new illegal immigrants Democrat voters and low-paid workers. This is on top of the labor revolution that will kick in once AI leads to mass layoffs among high-paying, white-collar jobs, after which all those newly laid off native-born workers hoping to trade down to lower paying (if available) jobs will discover that hardened criminals from Honduras or Guatemala have already taken them, all thanks to Joe Biden.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/10/2024 - 19:15

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