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Buyers gaining time and options as housing market rebalances

Buyers gaining time and options as housing market rebalances
PR Newswire
SEATTLE, Aug. 18, 2022

Competition is easing as inventory accumulates, leading the market back toward ‘normal’
U.S. home values fell 0.1% from June to July, the first decline …

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Buyers gaining time and options as housing market rebalances

PR Newswire

Competition is easing as inventory accumulates, leading the market back toward 'normal'

  • U.S. home values fell 0.1% from June to July, the first decline in the raw Zillow Home Value Index since 2012. Home values fell last month in 30 of the 50 largest metro areas, but are still up 16% from a year ago. 
  • Rising inventory is being driven by homes lingering on the market and new listings trailing pre-pandemic levels. It took 10 days for a listing to go pending in July, two days longer than in June.
  • Rent appreciation is slowing, but the growth rate remains much higher than pre-pandemic levels.

SEATTLE, Aug. 18, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- After two years of unprecedented growth, home values fell slightly from June to July, according to the latest market report1 from Zillow®. The market is quickly rebalancing. With buyers' purchasing power diminished by nearly two years of double-digit price growth and higher mortgage rates, competition for homes is dropping off. 

The typical U.S. home value declined by 0.1% ($366) month over month in July and now stands at $357,107, as measured by the raw2 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI). Monthly growth in this metric has relaxed since reaching a recent peak of 1.9% in April, slowing to 1.2% growth in May and 0.8% growth in June. It's not unusual for home price growth to decelerate this time of year, but the small decline is the first monthly dip since 2012. The nation's typical home value is up 16% year over year and 44.5% since July 2019. 

"Home values flattening so quickly after recent record growth might surprise, but it's a badly needed rebalancing that gives home buyers more options, more time to shop and more negotiating power," said Zillow chief economist Skylar Olsen. "This slowdown is about discouraged buyers pulling back after the affordability shock from higher rates. As prices soften, many will renew their interest, and we will continue our progress back to 'normal.' With buyers ready in the wings once confidence returns, homeowners can expect to keep the majority of the equity gains they've seen in the last two years."

Home values measured by raw ZHVI fell from June to July in 30 of the 50 largest metro areas, an increase from 13 the previous month. The largest monthly home value declines were in San Jose (-4.5%) and San Francisco (-2.8%) — the nation's most expensive major markets — followed by Phoenix (-2.8%) and Austin (-2.7%), which saw the most extreme growth over the pandemic. Values rose the most since June in Miami (1.5%), Richmond (1%) and Memphis (0.9%), although monthly growth has decelerated in these markets. 

Home shoppers still on the hunt have more time to find and consider their options, and have a better chance of seeing price cuts. Listings' median days to pending jumped by two days in July to 10 — still nearly two weeks less than in July 2019. Among major metros, typical time on market is rising fastest in Austin, Phoenix and San Jose. A wide swath of sellers are adjusting pricing to meet buyers' expectations, as the share of listings with a price cut grew to 18.6% in July, a few percentage points higher than in July 2019. 

Homes lingering on the market are driving for-sale inventory up at a fast clip. Inventory is up 5.1% on a monthly basis, yet new inventory fell 13.6% month over month in July. Compared to July 2019, 15.5% fewer new listings came on the market. This new inventory figure does not include new construction, so it represents current homeowners deciding not to list their homes. 

While total inventory is rising quickly, it still stands 43.5% below July 2019. Low inventory is a key reason Zillow economists do not expect home prices to fall significantly

"Inventory, the pool of homes available during a given window, is very responsive to easing demand and slowing sales, this year posting the largest month-over-month seasonal increases for any May, June or July ever recorded," said Olsen. "The flow of homes into the market, however, is slowing. High interest rates are likely keeping current homeowners from deciding to list, as they compare their current rate — and home — against what can be found on the market, keeping inventory far below pre-pandemic norms despite the slowdown in sales." 

Typical monthly rent in the U.S. is now $2,031. After a rapid run-up that peaked in February, rent hikes appear to be stabilizing, easing to 0.6% month-over-month growth in July after seeing higher volatility through much of 2021. Although growth is decelerating, the annual growth rate is still more than three times that of July 2019.

Among major metros, the most significant slowdowns in monthly rent growth since July of last year occurred in Las Vegas (from 3.6% to -0.2%), Phoenix (3.5% to -0.3%), Tampa (3.9% to 0.3%), and Austin (3.8% to 0.7%). 

Metropolitan Area*

July Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) (Raw)

July ZHVI Month-over- Month (MoM) Change (Raw)

ZHVI Cumulative Change since July 2019 (Raw)

Share of Listings with a Price Cut

ZIllow Observed Rent Index (ZORI)

Zillow Observed Rent Index MoM Change

United States

$357,107

-0.1 %

44.5 %

18.6 %

$2,031

0.6 %

New York, NY

$621,308

0.3 %

28.9 %

12.8 %

$3,246

1.2 %

Los Angeles, CA

$929,753

-0.4 %

41.0 %

17.8 %

$2,964

0.5 %

Chicago, IL

$314,179

-0.3 %

29.0 %

20.4 %

$1,932

0.7 %

Dallas–Fort Worth, TX

$396,904

-1.1 %

55.4 %

22.0 %

$1,834

0.6 %

Philadelphia, PA

$339,731

0.2 %

36.2 %

18.1 %

$1,844

0.7 %

Houston, TX

$313,999

0.1 %

42.3 %

20.9 %

$1,602

0.2 %

Washington, DC

$554,381

-0.5 %

28.3 %

18.8 %

$2,278

0.7 %

Miami–Fort Lauderdale, FL

$476,138

1.5 %

58.2 %

16.0 %

$2,841

0.4 %

Atlanta, GA

$383,509

-0.3 %

58.7 %

20.3 %

$1,980

0.8 %

Boston, MA

$660,230

-0.7 %

34.9 %

14.7 %

$2,834

1.0 %

San Francisco, CA

$1,436,044

-2.8 %

29.3 %

17.5 %

$3,277

0.5 %

Detroit, MI

$242,273

-1.2 %

34.4 %

18.4 %

$1,467

0.5 %

Riverside, CA

$580,593

-2.4 %

53.2 %

23.0 %

$2,612

0.5 %

Phoenix, AZ

$470,800

-2.8 %

69.5 %

28.8 %

$1,921

-0.3 %

Seattle, WA

$779,350

-0.3 %

52.2 %

25.6 %

$2,346

0.5 %

Minneapolis–St. Paul, MN

$375,933

-1.0 %

29.1 %

17.6 %

$1,651

-0.1 %

San Diego, CA

$894,246

-2.5 %

50.0 %

23.6 %

$3,126

1.2 %

St. Louis, MO

$244,022

-0.5 %

34.3 %

15.5 %

$1,308

0.4 %

Tampa, FL

$389,519

0.6 %

74.3 %

24.7 %

$2,118

0.3 %

Baltimore, MD

$378,970

0.1 %

27.1 %

17.9 %

$1,811

-0.1 %

Denver, CO

$630,141

-1.8 %

43.5 %

26.3 %

$2,021

0.0 %

Pittsburgh, PA

$211,239

-0.7 %

31.4 %

20.0 %

$1,349

0.4 %

Portland, OR

$573,768

-1.7 %

37.7 %

23.5 %

$1,941

0.4 %

Charlotte, NC

$390,944

0.3 %

64.8 %

21.3 %

$1,815

0.8 %

Sacramento, CA

$611,287

-2.5 %

45.4 %

27.5 %

$2,309

0.5 %

San Antonio, TX

$340,131

-0.5 %

45.9 %

20.9 %

$1,512

0.8 %

Orlando, FL

$403,394

0.5 %

59.1 %

20.0 %

$2,063

0.3 %

Cincinnati, OH

$262,353

-0.6 %

40.9 %

17.4 %

$1,436

1.3 %

Cleveland, OH

$221,357

0.0 %

40.6 %

16.1 %

$1,361

-0.7 %

Kansas City, MO

$288,359

-0.2 %

40.1 %

15.3 %

$1,383

1.0 %

Las Vegas, NV

$450,931

-1.4 %

54.8 %

28.6 %

$1,877

-0.2 %

Columbus, OH

$303,834

0.6 %

43.4 %

16.6 %

$1,493

1.2 %

Indianapolis, IN

$272,815

0.0 %

48.8 %

18.4 %

$1,510

0.9 %

San Jose, CA

$1,559,455

-4.5 %

29.2 %

19.5 %

$3,369

1.0 %

Austin, TX

$566,533

-2.7 %

70.4 %

25.2 %

$1,929

0.7 %

Virginia Beach, VA

$331,311

0.8 %

34.8 %

14.1 %

$1,641

0.8 %

Nashville, TN

$460,734

0.1 %

62.2 %

23.5 %

$1,888

0.3 %

Providence, RI

$452,906

-0.7 %

42.2 %

15.3 %

$1,966

-0.7 %

Milwaukee, WI

$271,982

-0.2 %

35.3 %

10.2 %

$1,241

1.1 %

Jacksonville, FL

$379,196

0.5 %

63.7 %

23.9 %

$1,784

0.5 %

Memphis, TN

$235,511

0.9 %

51.0 %

14.4 %

$1,530

-0.4 %

Oklahoma City, OK

$220,029

0.5 %

39.5 %

18.0 %

$1,343

0.5 %

Louisville, KY

$242,542

0.0 %

35.6 %

19.6 %

$1,311

1.2 %

Hartford, CT

$324,265

-0.4 %

36.4 %

13.6 %

$1,680

0.9 %

Richmond, VA

$338,875

1.0 %

35.4 %

13.7 %

$1,631

1.1 %

New Orleans, LA

$272,694

0.1 %

33.8 %

23.0 %

$1,531

0.1 %

Buffalo, NY

$249,777

0.3 %

43.5 %

13.2 %

$1,266

1.1 %

Raleigh, NC

$457,006

-2.5 %

62.3 %

19.7 %

$1,786

0.8 %

Birmingham, AL

$246,532

-0.1 %

41.0 %

16.2 %

$1,369

0.7 %

Salt Lake City, UT

$595,794

-1.2 %

56.0 %

32.5 %

$1,702

-0.2 %



*

Table ordered by market size 



1

The Zillow Real Estate Market Report is a monthly overview of the national and local real estate markets. The reports are compiled by Zillow Research. For more information, visit www.zillow.com/research.



2

Home value figures in the July 2022 Zillow market report represent the raw version of the Zillow Home Value Index. All previous Zillow market reports have used the smoothed and seasonally adjusted version of the Zillow Home Value Index. The smoothed and seasonally adjusted version smooths home value changes over the trailing three months, which shows a cleaner trend line without the month-to-month spikes of the raw series. Zillow Research has chosen to present the raw version during this period of unparalleled volatility. For reference, the smoothed and seasonally adjusted version of ZHVI shows a 0.7% month-over-month gain in July. The full series of all ZHVI versions, including geographic cuts down to the ZIP code level, are available for download at https://www.zillow.com/research/data/.

 

About Zillow Group

Zillow Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: Z and ZG) is reimagining real estate to make it easier to unlock life's next chapter. As the most visited real estate website in the United States, Zillow® and its affiliates offer customers an on-demand experience for selling, buying, renting or financing with transparency and ease. 

Zillow Group's affiliates and subsidiaries include Zillow®, Zillow Premier Agent®, Zillow Home Loans™, Zillow Closing Services™, Trulia®, Out East®, ShowingTime®, Bridge Interactive®, dotloop®, StreetEasy® and HotPads®. Zillow Home Loans, LLC is an Equal Housing Lender, NMLS #10287 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org).

 

 

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International

Shakira’s net worth

After 12 albums, a tax evasion case, and now a towering bronze idol sculpted in her image, how much is Shakira worth more than 4 decades into her care…

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Shakira’s considerable net worth is no surprise, given her massive popularity in Latin America, the U.S., and elsewhere. 

In fact, the belly-dancing contralto queen is the second-wealthiest Latin-America-born pop singer of all time after Gloria Estefan. (Interestingly, Estefan actually helped a young Shakira translate her breakout album “Laundry Service” into English, hugely propelling her stateside success.)

Since releasing her first record at age 13, Shakira has spent decades recording albums in both Spanish and English and performing all over the world. Over the course of her 40+ year career, she helped thrust Latin pop music into the American mainstream, paving the way for the subsequent success of massively popular modern acts like Karol G and Bad Bunny.

In late 2023, a 21-foot-tall bronze sculpture of Shakira, the barefoot belly dancer of Barranquilla, was unveiled at the city's waterfront. The statue was commissioned by the city's former mayor and other leadership.

Photo by STR/AFP via Getty Images

In December 2023, a 21-foot-tall beachside bronze statue of the “Hips Don’t Lie” singer was unveiled in her Colombian hometown of Barranquilla, making her a permanent fixture in the city’s skyline and cementing her legacy as one of Latin America’s most influential entertainers.

After 12 albums, a plethora of film and television appearances, a highly publicized tax evasion case, and now a towering bronze idol sculpted in her image, how much is Shakira worth? What does her income look like? And how does she spend her money?

Related: Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson's net worth: How the new TKO Board Member built his wealth from $7

How much is Shakira worth?

In late 2023, Spanish sports and lifestyle publication Marca reported Shakira’s net worth at $400 million, citing Forbes as the figure’s source (although Forbes’ profile page for Shakira does not list a net worth — and didn’t when that article was published).

Most other sources list the singer’s wealth at an estimated $300 million, and almost all of these point to Celebrity Net Worth — a popular but dubious celebrity wealth estimation site — as the source for the figure.

A $300 million net worth would make Shakira the third-richest Latina pop star after Gloria Estefan ($500 million) and Jennifer Lopez ($400 million), and the second-richest Latin-America-born pop singer after Estefan (JLo is Puerto Rican but was born in New York).

Shakira’s income: How much does she make annually?

Entertainers like Shakira don’t have predictable paychecks like ordinary salaried professionals. Instead, annual take-home earnings vary quite a bit depending on each year’s album sales, royalties, film and television appearances, streaming revenue, and other sources of income. As one might expect, Shakira’s earnings have fluctuated quite a bit over the years.

From June 2018 to June 2019, for instance, Shakira was the 10th highest-earning female musician, grossing $35 million, according to Forbes. This wasn’t her first time gracing the top 10, though — back in 2012, she also landed the #10 spot, bringing in $20 million, according to Billboard.

In 2023, Billboard listed Shakira as the 16th-highest-grossing Latin artist of all time.

Shakira performed alongside producer Bizarrap during the 2023 Latin Grammy Awards Gala in Seville.

Photo By Maria Jose Lopez/Europa Press via Getty Images

How much does Shakira make from her concerts and tours?

A large part of Shakira’s wealth comes from her world tours, during which she sometimes sells out massive stadiums and arenas full of passionate fans eager to see her dance and sing live.

According to a 2020 report by Pollstar, she sold over 2.7 million tickets across 190 shows that grossed over $189 million between 2000 and 2020. This landed her the 19th spot on a list of female musicians ranked by touring revenue during that period. In 2023, Billboard reported a more modest touring revenue figure of $108.1 million across 120 shows.

In 2003, Shakira reportedly generated over $4 million from a single show on Valentine’s Day at Foro Sol in Mexico City. 15 years later, in 2018, Shakira grossed around $76.5 million from her El Dorado World Tour, according to Touring Data.

Related: RuPaul's net worth: Everything to know about the cultural icon and force behind 'Drag Race'

How much has Shakira made from her album sales?

According to a 2023 profile in Variety, Shakira has sold over 100 million records throughout her career. “Laundry Service,” the pop icon’s fifth studio album, was her most successful, selling over 13 million copies worldwide, according to TheRichest.

Exactly how much money Shakira has taken home from her album sales is unclear, but in 2008, it was widely reported that she signed a 10-year contract with LiveNation to the tune of between $70 and $100 million to release her subsequent albums and manage her tours.

Shakira and JLo co-headlined the 2020 Super Bowl Halftime Show in Florida.

Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)

How much did Shakira make from her Super Bowl and World Cup performances?

Shakira co-wrote one of her biggest hits, “Waka Waka (This Time for Africa),” after FIFA selected her to create the official anthem for the 2010 World Cup in South Africa. She performed the song, along with several of her existing fan-favorite tracks, during the event’s opening ceremonies. TheThings reported in 2023 that the song generated $1.4 million in revenue, citing Popnable for the figure.

A decade later, 2020’s Superbowl halftime show featured Shakira and Jennifer Lopez as co-headliners with guest performances by Bad Bunny and J Balvin. The 14-minute performance was widely praised as a high-energy celebration of Latin music and dance, but as is typical for Super Bowl shows, neither Shakira nor JLo was compensated beyond expenses and production costs.

The exposure value that comes with performing in the Super Bowl Halftime Show, though, is significant. It is typically the most-watched television event in the U.S. each year, and in 2020, a 30-second Super Bowl ad spot cost between $5 and $6 million.

How much did Shakira make as a coach on “The Voice?”

Shakira served as a team coach on the popular singing competition program “The Voice” during the show’s fourth and sixth seasons. On the show, celebrity musicians coach up-and-coming amateurs in a team-based competition that eventually results in a single winner. In 2012, The Hollywood Reporter wrote that Shakira’s salary as a coach on “The Voice” was $12 million.

Related: John Cena's net worth: The wrestler-turned-actor's investments, businesses, and more

How does Shakira spend her money?

Shakira doesn’t just make a lot of money — she spends it, too. Like many wealthy entertainers, she’s purchased her share of luxuries, but Barranquilla’s barefoot belly dancer is also a prolific philanthropist, having donated tens of millions to charitable causes throughout her career.

Private island

Back in 2006, she teamed up with Roger Waters of Pink Floyd fame and Spanish singer Alejandro Sanz to purchase Bonds Cay, a 550-acre island in the Bahamas, which was listed for $16 million at the time.

Along with her two partners in the purchase, Shakira planned to develop the island to feature housing, hotels, and an artists’ retreat designed to host a revolving cast of artists-in-residence. This plan didn’t come to fruition, though, and as of this article’s last update, the island was once again for sale on Vladi Private Islands.

Real estate and vehicles

Like most wealthy celebs, Shakira’s portfolio of high-end playthings also features an array of luxury properties and vehicles, including a home in Barcelona, a villa in Cyprus, a Miami mansion, and a rotating cast of Mercedes-Benz vehicles.

Philanthropy and charity

Shakira doesn’t just spend her massive wealth on herself; the “Queen of Latin Music” is also a dedicated philanthropist and regularly donates portions of her earnings to the Fundación Pies Descalzos, or “Barefoot Foundation,” a charity she founded in 1997 to “improve the education and social development of children in Colombia, which has suffered decades of conflict.” The foundation focuses on providing meals for children and building and improving educational infrastructure in Shakira’s hometown of Barranquilla as well as four other Colombian communities.

In addition to her efforts with the Fundación Pies Descalzos, Shakira has made a number of other notable donations over the years. In 2007, she diverted a whopping $40 million of her wealth to help rebuild community infrastructure in Peru and Nicaragua in the wake of a devastating 8.0 magnitude earthquake. Later, during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, Shakira donated a large supply of N95 masks for healthcare workers and ventilators for hospital patients to her hometown of Barranquilla.

Back in 2010, the UN honored Shakira with a medal to recognize her dedication to social justice, at which time the Director General of the International Labour Organization described her as a “true ambassador for children and young people.”

On November 20, 2023 (which was supposed to be her first day of trial), Shakira reached a deal with the prosecution that resulted in a three-year suspended sentence and around $8 million in fines.

Photo by Adria Puig/Anadolu via Getty Images

Shakira’s tax fraud scandal: How much did she pay?

In 2018, prosecutors in Spain initiated a tax evasion case against Shakira, alleging she lived primarily in Spain from 2012 to 2014 and therefore failed to pay around $14.4 million in taxes to the Spanish government. Spanish law requires anyone who is “domiciled” (i.e., living primarily) in Spain for more than half of the year to pay income taxes.

During the period in question, Shakira listed the Bahamas as her primary residence but did spend some time in Spain, as she was dating Gerard Piqué, a professional footballer and Spanish citizen. The couple’s first son, Milan, was also born in Barcelona during this period. 

Shakira maintained that she spent far fewer than 183 days per year in Spain during each of the years in question. In an interview with Elle Magazine, the pop star opined that “Spanish tax authorities saw that I was dating a Spanish citizen and started to salivate. It's clear they wanted to go after that money no matter what."

Prosecutors in the case sought a fine of almost $26 million and a possible eight-year prison stint, but in November of 2023, Shakira took a deal to close the case, accepting a fine of around $8 million and a three-year suspended sentence to avoid going to trial. In reference to her decision to take the deal, Shakira stated, "While I was determined to defend my innocence in a trial that my lawyers were confident would have ruled in my favour [had the trial proceeded], I have made the decision to finally resolve this matter with the best interest of my kids at heart who do not want to see their mom sacrifice her personal well-being in this fight."

How much did the Shakira statue in Barranquilla cost?

In late 2023, a 21-foot-tall bronze likeness of Shakira was unveiled on a waterfront promenade in Barranquilla. The city’s then-mayor, Jaime Pumarejo, commissioned Colombian sculptor Yino Márquez to create the statue of the city’s treasured pop icon, along with a sculpture of the city’s coat of arms.

According to the New York Times, the two sculptures cost the city the equivalent of around $180,000. A plaque at the statue’s base reads, “A heart that composes, hips that don’t lie, an unmatched talent, a voice that moves the masses and bare feet that march for the good of children and humanity.” 

Related: Taylor Swift net worth: The most successful entertainer joins the billionaire's club

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International

Delta Air Lines adds a new route travelers have been asking for

The new Delta seasonal flight to the popular destination will run daily on a Boeing 767-300.

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Those who have tried to book a flight from North America to Europe in the summer of 2023 know just how high travel demand to the continent has spiked.

At 2.93 billion, visitors to the countries making up the European Union had finally reached pre-pandemic levels last year while North Americans in particular were booking trips to both large metropolises such as Paris and Milan as well as smaller cities growing increasingly popular among tourists.

Related: A popular European city is introducing the highest 'tourist tax' yet

As a result, U.S.-based airlines have been re-evaluating their networks to add more direct routes to smaller European destinations that most travelers would have previously needed to reach by train or transfer flight with a local airline.

The new flight will take place on a Boeing 767-300.

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Delta Air Lines: ‘Glad to offer customers increased choice…’

By the end of March, Delta Air Lines  (DAL)  will be restarting its route between New York’s JFK and Marco Polo International Airport in Venice as well as launching two new flights to Venice from Atlanta. One will start running this month while the other will be added during peak demand in the summer.

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“As one of the most beautiful cities in the world, Venice is hugely popular with U.S. travelers, and our flights bring valuable tourism and trade opportunities to the city and the region as well as unrivalled opportunities for Venetians looking to explore destinations across the Americas,” Delta’s SVP for Europe Matteo Curcio said in a statement. “We’re glad to offer customers increased choice this summer with flights from New York and additional service from Atlanta.”

The JFK-Venice flight will run on a Boeing 767-300  (BA)  and have 216 seats including higher classes such as Delta One, Delta Premium Select and Delta Comfort Plus.

Delta offers these features on the new flight

Both the New York and Atlanta flights are seasonal routes that will be pulled out of service in October. Both will run daily while the first route will depart New York at 8:55 p.m. and arrive in Venice at 10:15 a.m. local time on the way there, while leaving Venice at 12:15 p.m. to arrive at JFK at 5:05 p.m. on the way back.

According to Delta, this will bring its service to 17 flights from different U.S. cities to Venice during the peak summer period. As with most Delta flights at this point, passengers in all fare classes will have access to free Wi-Fi during the flight.

Those flying in Delta’s highest class or with access through airline status or a credit card will also be able to use the new Delta lounge that is part of the airline’s $12 billion terminal renovation and is slated to open to travelers in the coming months. The space will take up more than 40,000 square feet and have an outdoor terrace.

“Delta One customers can stretch out in a lie-flat seat and enjoy premium amenities like plush bedding made from recycled plastic bottles, more beverage options, and a seasonal chef-curated four-course meal,” Delta said of the new route. “[…] All customers can enjoy a wide selection of in-flight entertainment options and stay connected with Wi-Fi and enjoy free mobile messaging.”

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The Question You Should Ask Whenever You’re Wrong

“Never bet on the end of the world. It only comes once, which is pretty long odds.” — Arthur Cashin, New York Stock Exchange Floor Manager (“Maxims…

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“Never bet on the end of the world. It only comes once, which is pretty long odds.” — Arthur Cashin, New York Stock Exchange Floor Manager (“Maxims of Wall Street,” p. 110)

Since Joe Biden gave his State of the Union (or shall we say “Disunion”) speech last week, I’ve encountered a plethora of negative comments about the future of America.

Is the American Dream Over?

“If Biden is re-elected, it will be the end of the American Dream as we know it,” said one pundit on Fox News.

The critics are out in force. Supply-side economist Steve Moore writes, “Biden is intentionally trying to dismantle the American economy with his imbecile energy, climate change, crime, border, inflation, debt and high tax policies.”

Glenn Beck, the host of Blaze TV, recently warned that America may face multiple terrorist attacks in one day, similar to 9/11, given the open borders policy of the Biden Administration.

Recently, I attended a private meeting of political leaders and pundits who thought that President Biden’s address was the most polemical, shrill and divisive talk they had ever heard.

I’ve been watching State of the Union addresses all my adult life, by both Republicans and Democrats, and in many ways they are always polemical and divisive. What was amazing to me is how “sleepy” Joe Biden performed. He must have been well rested and jacked up with some pretty incredible drugs to do as well as he did.

President Biden did say some things that were crazy, such as when he asserted that voting for former president Donald Trump is a “vote against democracy.”

Hey, wasn’t it the Democrats who want to remove Trump from the November ballot in Colorado and other states? Talk about anti-democratic! I was glad to see the Supreme Court ruled 9-0 against the Colorado decision. Let the people decide. Isn’t that what democracy is all about?

Why Then Is the Stock Market at an All-Time High? 

Kevin Roberts, the new president of the Heritage Foundation, recently declared, “The American Dream is being threatened as never before!”

If that is true, why is the stock market at or near an all-time high? What are the prophets of doom and gloom missing?

That’s the question I always ask when I’m wrong about something:

“What am I missing?”

Wall Street is a good bellwether of what is going on the country. So far, the benefits outweigh the costs. The economy is recovering from the Covid pandemic, inflation is coming down, corporate profits are strong, new technologies are being introduced and there’s a strong movement to reverse the “cancel” and “woke” culture in the United States.

We have gridlock on Capitol Hill that is keeping a lot of bad legislation from becoming law. The Supreme Court has reversed many bad decisions by the lower courts.

We Remain Fully Invested

So, all is not lost after all. In my newsletter, Forecasts & Strategies, we remain fully invested, despite occasional corrections in the market.

We are also well diversified in some “contrarian” investments such as Bitcoin and gold, both of which continue to outperform and offset any selloffs in the stock market.

By remaining positive and fully invested, we have made good money in 2024.

The American Obituary Has Been Written Many Times

The American economy has been left for dead many times, only to be resuscitated with renewed vigor. We have survived civil and world wars, the Great Depression, the inflationary 1970s, terrorist attacks and more.

As J.P. Morgan once said, “The man who is a bear on the United States will eventually go broke” (“Maxims,” p. 111).

I encourage you to read my favorite J.P. Morgan story found on pp. 218-219 in “The Maxims of Wall Street.” See www.skousenbooks.com.

American exceptionalism is alive and well. We are still the Promised Land with millions wanting to live and work here.

Solving Our Unfunded Liability Problem: Look to Canada!

One serious problem in America is the irresponsible, out-of-control deficit spending and national debt, created by both Republican and Democratic leaders over the years. The trouble is getting worse, with rising interest rates to pay the debt and the growing unfunded liabilities from Social Security and Medicare.

Robert Poole of the Reason Foundation warns:

“The Congressional Budget Office (CBO)’s latest 10-year projection is frightening. CBO projects annual federal budget deficits to increase steadily, exceeding $2.5 trillion by 2034, assuming current policies continue… The federal government is projected to borrow an additional $20 trillion over the next decade, the CBO estimates.

“One driving factor is the impact of higher interest rates on the current $34 trillion (and growing) national debt… By 2034, annual interest expense is projected to be $1.6 trillion — more than one-fourth of all federal tax revenue.

“The Penn Wharton Budget Model suggests that the United States has about 20 years to fix this debt/deficit problem — ‘after which no amount of future tax increases or spending cuts could avoid the government defaulting on its debt.’

“On August 2, 2023, Fitch Ratings downgraded the federal government’s long-term debt rating from AAA to AA+. And on November 10, 2023, Moody’s Investors Service reduced its outlook on the U.S. credit rating from ‘stable’ to ‘negative.’ Standard & Poor’s did its downgrade in 2011. These are warning shots across the ship of state’s bow.”

Sounds ominous. What to do?

Canada faced a similar problem back in the mid-1990s. Deficits were getting out of hand, and the Canadian dollar was sinking. The Conservative Party and the Liberty Party of Canada worked together and resolved to cut government spending, lay off federal workers and then went on a supply-side tax-cutting program that resulted in economic growth and deficit reduction.

What about the unfunded liability problem, which causes national bankruptcy? Again, Canada offers an incredible example of solving the issue.

Last week, Andy Puzder and Terrence Keeley wrote an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal on the success of the Canadian social security system, which has earned a 9.3% annualized return over the past 10 years (versus almost zero return in our Social Security Trust Fund). They wrote:

“The Canada Pension Plan’s superiority stems from its asset allocation. The fund invests about 57% of its assets in equities and 12% in bonds; the rest is divided among real estate, infrastructure and credit. Over the past 10 years, the Canada Pension Plan has realized a 9.3% annualized net return. Similarly to how Social Security works, Canadian citizens pay into the program and are guaranteed lifetime benefits.”

At some point, the United States will need to imitate the Canadian model. Here is a chart on the difference between the two:

In sum, there are solutions to all of our problems — if we know where to look and remain optimistic.

Sound Advice from the ‘Investment Bible’

In my home, I have a whole section of my library devoted to dozens of books written by doomsayers and Cassandras, such as “The Coming Deflation”…. “How to Prosper During the Coming Bad Years”… “Bankruptcy 1995”… “The End of Inflation” and so on.

I’ve also collected a bunch of quotes on doomsayers and Cassandras in “The Maxims of Wall Street.”

Jim Woods, my colleague at Eagle Publishing, is a big fan.

Jim states, “I’ve always felt that a collection of wisdom from the best brains in that industry has been most special to me. And on this front, there is no better ‘how to’ anthology than the one by my friend, fellow Fast Money Alert co-editor and brilliant economist, Dr. Mark Skousen. The ‘Maxims of Wall Street’ is a collection of some of the greatest wisdom ever to flow from the biggest and brightest names on Wall Street. Great investors such as Jesse Livermore, Baron Rothschild, J.P. Morgan, Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch and John Templeton are just a sneak peek at some of the names you’ll discover in this fantastic collection. Then, there is profundity from the likes of Ben Franklin, John D. Rockefeller, Joe Kennedy, Bernard Baruch, John Maynard Keynes, Steve Forbes and numerous other luminaries too copious to mention.”

If you don’t have an autographed copy of my collection of quotes, stories and wisdom of the world’s top traders and investors, please order a copy now.

It is in its 10th edition, having sold nearly 50,000 copies. It has been endorsed by Warren Buffett, Kevin O’Leary, Jack Bogle, Kim Githler, Bert Dohmen, Richard Band and Gene Epstein in Barron’s.

I offer it cheaply to my Skousen CAFÉ readers: Only $21 for the first copy, and all additional copies are $11 each (they make a great gift to clients, friends, relatives and your favorite broker or money manager). I sign and number each one, then mail it at no extra charge if you live in the United States. If you order an entire box (32 copies), the price is only $327. As Hetty Green, the first female millionaire, once said, “When I see a good thing going cheap, I buy a lot of it!”

To order, go to www.skousenbooks.com.

You Nailed it!

Friedrich Hayek Won the Nobel Prize 50 Years Ago

“Mises and Hayek articulated and vastly enriched the principles of Adam Smith at a crucial time in this century.” — Vernon Smith (2002 Nobel prize in economics)

March 23 is the anniversary of the passing of a giant in economics — the Austrian economist Friedrich Hayek (1899-1992).

He is most famous for his bestselling book “The Road to Serfdom,” written near the end of World War II, an admittedly a pessimistic book, warning the West that its move toward socialism, fascism and communism was indeed a “road to serfdom.”

Then, when he won the Nobel prize in economics in 1974, he warned again of the dangers of “accelerating inflation,” which he said, were “brought about by policies which the majority of economists recommended and even urged governments to pursue. We have indeed at the moment little cause for pride: as a profession we have made a mess of things.”

Fortunately, we have moved away from the road to serfdom, especially after the collapse of the Berlin Wall and the Soviet socialist central planning model.

But the road to freedom has been a checkered one, and we must always be alert to losing our liberties in the name of inequality, fairness and social justice.

Last month, Tom Woods interviewed me in honor of the 50th anniversary of Hayek’s winning the Nobel prize. Watch the interview here.

Mark Skousen, Friedrich Hayek and Gary North in Austria, 1985

I had the pleasure of interviewing Hayek for three hours in the Austrian alps in 1985. He was especially happy to hear I resurrected his macroeconomic model in developing gross output (GO). See www.grossoutput.com, a measure of Hayek’s triangles.

This week, Larry Reed, former president of the Foundation for Economic Education, wrote this wonderful tribute to Hayek.

Highly recommended.

Good investing, AEIOU,

Mark Skousen

The post The Question You Should Ask Whenever You’re Wrong appeared first on Stock Investor.

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