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Building The Bitcoin Standard In Portugal

Portugal’s beautiful landscape, freedom-minded people and friendly legislation make it a perfect Bitcoin homeland.

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Portugal’s beautiful landscape, freedom-minded people and friendly legislation make it a perfect Bitcoin homeland.

This is an opinion editorial by Holly Young, Ph.D., an active builder in the Portuguese Bitcoin community.

Way back when people thought the earth was flat, it was more or less here, in Portugal where I am writing this, that people thought that the earth ended. And if you look out to the sea, you can understand why, as the gray Atlantic stretches as far as the eye can see to America in one direction, and to North Africa in another. Names referring to the edge of the earth (“Fisterra,” “Finisterre”) are common along the Atlantic coastline.

Image source: Author

Portugal’s visa process, for those of us who are not European, although somewhat slow, is manageable and does not necessarily involve parting with too large a slice of your Bitcoin stash. A D7 visa, for example, requires only that you display means of income or passive income (and yes, they consider holding Bitcoin as a means of passive income) and the equivalent of two years of minimum wage on your bank account.

For anyone who has ever visited, I hardly need to expand upon the charms of Portugal. The climate, beautiful landscape, food, incredibly friendly and warm culture all speak for themselves. It is much less focussed on keeping up appearances and status than its Mediterranean sister countries, Italy and Spain. For those keen to live a healthy, outdoor life, be it hiking, surfing, motorbiking or horseback riding — you name it, Portugal is paradise. For those wanting to raise a family here, it’s generally a safe environment, with low crime rates, decent healthcare, some outstanding international schools and a lively home schooling or alternative schooling community.

There is something about Portugal’s history which lends it to being a Bitcoin haven, too. The country was under a dictatorship from the mid 1920s until the mid 1970s, meaning that political oppression and censorship are still very much living memories amongst the local population. Poverty was the norm here, especially before it joined the European Union in the ‘80s, and still Portugal remains one of the poorer European countries.

An influx of Bitcoiners inevitably brings more affluence with it, nourishing the local economies. Portugal’s history, attractive lifestyle and Bitcoin-friendly tax laws make it fertile ground in and of itself for a Bitcoin community.

And then you have the types of people which Portugal has always attracted as immigrants.

Those of us who have washed up and put down roots here in Europe’s deep south do, it seems to me, have some common characteristics. Many of us came to take our children away from the rigid and constrictive school systems of Northern Europe. Many have bought land and are keen to move towards self sufficiency. Many are digital nomads, looking for community — this is especially true further north, in Lisbon. Many are people who work with their hands and make goods to sell. In general, Portugal draws and has always drawn a freedom-minded crowd, when it comes to immigrants. And I can tell you from experience that these people are natural Bitcoiners. Orange pilling here is preaching to the choir, even though many had never heard of bitcoin. Ask them if they would like a decentralized, deflationary, censorship resistant money and the answer is a resounding, “yes!”

None of us know, of course, what the future is going to bring, but whatever it brings, it seems that we should not underestimate the human value of our peer-to-peer network. What I enjoyed the most about the brief period I spent at Bitcoin Beach in El Salvador was the international crowd who wanted nothing more than to talk Bitcoin over dinner. But the benefits of having an active Bitcoin community are not only social ones. We can all see that difficult times are coming with hyperinflation and shortages — for these issues, only parallel economies provide a realistic solution.

During COVID-19, some friends of mine set up what they called a private market on their land. In no time, the first 10 stalls had expanded and there were several hundred shoppers when I visited. Stalls sold local honey, mushrooms, clothing, biochar burners, eggs, meat, jewelry, local liquor, candles and brass ornaments. People offered circus workshops for children, clothing repair — there was live music and a festive atmosphere. Initiatives like this are perfect for introducing bitcoin as the ideal currency for a parallel, local economy, with all the advantages offered by Lightning. As Bitcoiners, we need to actively grasp these opportunities. I’ll be holding a “Bitcoin for Beginners” workshop in the short term, organized through the Telegram group for the market.

On a beach down on the southern coast, Meia Praia, the first green shoots of Bitcoin Beach Europe are starting to sprout. So far, it’s just one little beach bar. But if you go to Bam Bam Beach bar on a Friday evening, you will find live music and an active, international crowd of Bitcoiners there, swapping tales and paying for their cold beers with Lightning. Other initiatives are slowly springing up too. The farm shop owned by a dear friend of mine also accepts sats as payment. A pizzeria down on the south coast in Burgau does too. So does a steakhouse in Almancil. One by one, Bitcoin businesses are appearing and flourishing.

To the European Bitcoiner, the U.S. looks like an enviable hub of Bitcoin meetups, with a tempting array of get-togethers on a regular basis, especially in Nashville and Austin. Here in Europe, we have to work a little harder to get our Bitcoin contact time and our Bitcoin chats in. But there has never been a better time for European Bitcoiners to gather and start holding meetups, information sessions and to start building communities.

Family is first — community is a close second. Just as the integrity of family relationships requires time, effort, commitment and attention, so too does building and keeping a community. Portugal provides the welcome we need for a European Bitcoin community and economy — it has the potential to be Europe's Bitcoin heartland. But the most vital thing is that we all do our best to contribute to the orange tsunami which hyperbitcoinization will be. “Build back better,” say our politicians, and I wholeheartedly agree — by defunding their regimes, by opting out, by buying bitcoin, by helping those around us to buy bitcoin and by building the community we want to live in ourselves, from the ground up.

This is a guest post by Holly Young. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

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NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

One month after the inflation outlook tracked…

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NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

One month after the inflation outlook tracked by the NY Fed Consumer Survey extended their late 2023 slide, with 3Y inflation expectations in January sliding to a record low 2.4% (from 2.6% in December), even as 1 and 5Y inflation forecasts remained flat, moments ago the NY Fed reported that in February there was a sharp rebound in longer-term inflation expectations, rising to 2.7% from 2.4% at the three-year ahead horizon, and jumping to 2.9% from 2.5% at the five-year ahead horizon, while the 1Y inflation outlook was flat for the 3rd month in a row, stuck at 3.0%. 

The increases in both the three-year ahead and five-year ahead measures were most pronounced for respondents with at most high school degrees (in other words, the "really smart folks" are expecting deflation soon). The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at all horizons, while the median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—declined at the one- and three-year ahead horizons and remained unchanged at the five-year ahead horizon.

Going down the survey, we find that the median year-ahead expected price changes increased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.3% for gas; decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 6.8% for the cost of medical care (its lowest reading since September 2020); decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 5.8% for the cost of a college education; and surprisingly decreased by 0.3 percentage point for rent to 6.1% (its lowest reading since December 2020), and remained flat for food at 4.9%.

We find the rent expectations surprising because it is happening just asking rents are rising across the country.

At the same time as consumers erroneously saw sharply lower rents, median home price growth expectations remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive month at 3.0%.

Turning to the labor market, the survey found that the average perceived likelihood of voluntary and involuntary job separations increased, while the perceived likelihood of finding a job (in the event of a job loss) declined. "The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months also increased, by 1.8 percentage points to 19.5%."

Mean unemployment expectations - or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now - decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 36.1%, the lowest reading since February 2022. Additionally, the median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth was unchanged at 2.8%, remaining slightly below its 12-month trailing average of 2.9%.

Turning to household finance, we find the following:

  • The median expected growth in household income remained unchanged at 3.1%. The series has been moving within a narrow range of 2.9% to 3.3% since January 2023, and remains above the February 2020 pre-pandemic level of 2.7%.
  • Median household spending growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2%. The increase was driven by respondents with a high school degree or less.
  • Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased to 9.3% from 8.9%.
  • The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 0.6 percentage point to 26.1%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 30%.
  • Perceptions about households’ current financial situations deteriorated somewhat with fewer respondents reporting being better off than a year ago. Year-ahead expectations also deteriorated marginally with a smaller share of respondents expecting to be better off and a slightly larger share of respondents expecting to be worse off a year from now.
  • The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 1.4 percentage point to 38.9%.
  • At the same time, perceptions and expectations about credit access turned less optimistic: "Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated with a larger share of respondents reporting tighter conditions and a smaller share reporting looser conditions compared to a year ago."

Also, a smaller percentage of consumers, 11.45% vs 12.14% in prior month, expect to not be able to make minimum debt payment over the next three months

Last, and perhaps most humorous, is the now traditional cognitive dissonance one observes with these polls, because at a time when long-term inflation expectations jumped, which clearly suggests that financial conditions will need to be tightened, the number of respondents expecting higher stock prices one year from today jumped to the highest since November 2021... which incidentally is just when the market topped out during the last cycle before suffering a painful bear market.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 12:40

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Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more

New Zillow research suggests the spring home shopping season may see a second wave this summer if mortgage rates fall
The post Homes listed for sale in…

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  • A Zillow analysis of 2023 home sales finds homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more. 
  • The best time to list a home for sale is a month later than it was in 2019, likely driven by mortgage rates.
  • The best time to list can be as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York and Philadelphia. 

Spring home sellers looking to maximize their sale price may want to wait it out and list their home for sale in the first half of June. A new Zillow® analysis of 2023 sales found that homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more, a $7,700 boost on a typical U.S. home.  

The best time to list consistently had been early May in the years leading up to the pandemic. The shift to June suggests mortgage rates are strongly influencing demand on top of the usual seasonality that brings buyers to the market in the spring. This home-shopping season is poised to follow a similar pattern as that in 2023, with the potential for a second wave if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates midyear or later. 

The 2.3% sale price premium registered last June followed the first spring in more than 15 years with mortgage rates over 6% on a 30-year fixed-rate loan. The high rates put home buyers on the back foot, and as rates continued upward through May, they were still reassessing and less likely to bid boldly. In June, however, rates pulled back a little from 6.79% to 6.67%, which likely presented an opportunity for determined buyers heading into summer. More buyers understood their market position and could afford to transact, boosting competition and sale prices.

The old logic was that sellers could earn a premium by listing in late spring, when search activity hit its peak. Now, with persistently low inventory, mortgage rate fluctuations make their own seasonality. First-time home buyers who are on the edge of qualifying for a home loan may dip in and out of the market, depending on what’s happening with rates. It is almost certain the Federal Reserve will push back any interest-rate cuts to mid-2024 at the earliest. If mortgage rates follow, that could bring another surge of buyers later this year.

Mortgage rates have been impacting affordability and sale prices since they began rising rapidly two years ago. In 2022, sellers nationwide saw the highest sale premium when they listed their home in late March, right before rates barreled past 5% and continued climbing. 

Zillow’s research finds the best time to list can vary widely by metropolitan area. In 2023, it was as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York. Thirty of the top 35 largest metro areas saw for-sale listings command the highest sale prices between May and early July last year. 

Zillow also found a wide range in the sale price premiums associated with homes listed during those peak periods. At the hottest time of the year in San Jose, homes sold for 5.5% more, a $88,000 boost on a typical home. Meanwhile, homes in San Antonio sold for 1.9% more during that same time period.  

 

Metropolitan Area Best Time to List Price Premium Dollar Boost
United States First half of June 2.3% $7,700
New York, NY First half of July 2.4% $15,500
Los Angeles, CA First half of May 4.1% $39,300
Chicago, IL First half of June 2.8% $8,800
Dallas, TX First half of June 2.5% $9,200
Houston, TX Second half of April 2.0% $6,200
Washington, DC Second half of June 2.2% $12,700
Philadelphia, PA First half of July 2.4% $8,200
Miami, FL First half of June 2.3% $12,900
Atlanta, GA Second half of June 2.3% $8,700
Boston, MA Second half of May 3.5% $23,600
Phoenix, AZ First half of June 3.2% $14,700
San Francisco, CA Second half of February 4.2% $50,300
Riverside, CA First half of May 2.7% $15,600
Detroit, MI First half of July 3.3% $7,900
Seattle, WA First half of June 4.3% $31,500
Minneapolis, MN Second half of May 3.7% $13,400
San Diego, CA Second half of April 3.1% $29,600
Tampa, FL Second half of June 2.1% $8,000
Denver, CO Second half of May 2.9% $16,900
Baltimore, MD First half of July 2.2% $8,200
St. Louis, MO First half of June 2.9% $7,000
Orlando, FL First half of June 2.2% $8,700
Charlotte, NC Second half of May 3.0% $11,000
San Antonio, TX First half of June 1.9% $5,400
Portland, OR Second half of April 2.6% $14,300
Sacramento, CA First half of June 3.2% $17,900
Pittsburgh, PA Second half of June 2.3% $4,700
Cincinnati, OH Second half of April 2.7% $7,500
Austin, TX Second half of May 2.8% $12,600
Las Vegas, NV First half of June 3.4% $14,600
Kansas City, MO Second half of May 2.5% $7,300
Columbus, OH Second half of June 3.3% $10,400
Indianapolis, IN First half of July 3.0% $8,100
Cleveland, OH First half of July  3.4% $7,400
San Jose, CA First half of June 5.5% $88,400

 

The post Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more appeared first on Zillow Research.

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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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