BTC stocks correlation ‘not what we want’ — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
Can anything save Bitcoin from a stocks-driven meltdown? Not everyone is bearish this week.
Bitcoin (BTC) starts the second week of…
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Can anything save Bitcoin from a stocks-driven meltdown? Not everyone is bearish this week.
Bitcoin (BTC) starts the second week of April with a whimper as bulls struggle to retain support above $40,000.
After a refreshingly low-volatility weekend, the latest weekly close saw market nerves return, and in classic style, BTC/USD fell in the final hours of April 10.
There is a feeling of being caught between two stools for the average hodler currently — macro forces promise major trend shifts but are being slow to play out. At the same time, “serious” buyer demand is also absent from crypto assets more broadly.
However, those on the inside show no hint of doubt about the future, as evidenced by all-time high Bitcoin network fundamentals and more.
The combination of these opposing factors is price action that simply does not seem to know where to go next. Can something change in the coming week?
Cointelegraph takes a look at five potential Bitcoin price cues as a retest of $40,000 looms closer.
No “massive drawdown” for BTC?
April 11 is starting out with a reclaim of $42,000 for BTC/USD, which the pair briefly lost overnight as it dipped into the weekly close.
Hitting $41,771 on Bitstamp in the process, Bitcoin thus saw its lowest levels in weeks, matching those from March 23.
In doing so, the largest cryptocurrency, likewise, gave up all of its gains from the intervening period to fall back to the top of its trading range from last month. However, this could end up being a retest of previous resistance as support. Instead of fearing the worst, many traders are hopeful that a reversal would soon kick in.
“Bullish retest of flipped weekly level, finex whale filling bids, I’m buying the dip. If you want to wait for confirmation you can wait for a monthly close to confirm,” popular Twitter user Credible Crypto wrote as part of comments overnight.
Credible Crypto was commenting on both Bitfinex whale buying and fresh chart data, showing that Bitcoin’s Aroon indicator has flipped bullish in recent days.
Designed to identify uptrends or downtrends in an asset, Aroon has only delivered such bearish-to-bullish “crosses” six times since 2017 — the time of Bitcoin’s previous blow-off top.
Pretty good odds of you ask me. Aroon is designed to act like both a smooth indicator and exponential one due to its behavior toward time instead of price.
— Otsu (@OtsukimiCrypto) April 11, 2022
I’m not expecting a massive drawdown.
As Cointelegraph recently reported, trader and analyst Rekt Capital also had plenty of reasons to adopt a bullish thesis for Bitcoin. But, at around $42,150, the weekly close ultimately disappointed compared to his required $43,100.
“A BTC Weekly Candle Close like this and the retest of ~$43.100 as new support would be successful,” he explained alongside a chart on April 10.
“Therefore, BTC would be positioned for a move higher inside the ~$43100-$52000 range, as per the previous blue circle.”
Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, meanwhile, also noted that the late dip on April 10 had closed the potential for a CME Group futures gap to provide a short-term price target at the start of trading on April 11.
Stocks pressured across the board
It’s a gloomy day for stocks so far, as Asia leads with widespread losses, thanks in no small part to China’s latest COVID-19 lockdowns.
Both the Shanghai Composite Index and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell over 2% in morning trading.
In Europe, markets were yet to open at the time of writing, but the ongoing geopolitical tensions focused on Russia showed no signs of change.
A glimmer of hope for the euro came in the form of a potential lead for incumbent French President Emmanuel Macron against rival Marine Le Pen in polls.
Beyond the short term, however, analysts are eyeing concerning trends: rapidly increasing inflation, bond market losses and a seeming inability for central banks to respond so far.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is due to meet this week with a key focus on inflation control — ending asset purchases and raising interest rates.
The biggest bond bubble in 800yrs continues to deflate after the start of the Fed's rate-hike cycle, ahead of next week's #ECB meeting & as rising #inflation shakes up bond mkts. Value of global bonds has dropped by another $960bn this week, bringing total loss from ATH to $6tn. pic.twitter.com/g78Pu2dyLo
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) April 10, 2022
The situation underscores the difficulties stocks and risk assets face in the current climate. As commentators agree that the inflationary environment and associated central bank measures will reduce demand for Bitcoin and crypto, the true extent of the economic reality is already clear.
In a previous Twitter post last week, Holger Zschaepitz revealed that for all the gains in the S&P 500, for example, the Fed’s asset purchases mean that progress has, in fact, been flat since the global financial crisis.
“Just to put things into perspective: The S&P 500 may have hit a new ATH today, but if you put the index in relation to the Fed's balance sheet, it is trading at the same level as in 2008, so equities have traded sideways since 2008, basically counteracting balance sheet expansion,” he wrote.
Down together?
For Arthur Hayes, ex-CEO of derivatives giant BitMEX, the bullish case for Bitcoin as a store of value in the face of failing fiat is still there.
The problem is that such a scenario is not reality — yet.
In his latest blog post released on April 11, Hayes repeated warnings that pain would precede gain for the average investor with significant risk asset exposure.
The future could well see a shift away from United States dollar hegemony toward different assets by nation-states and individuals alike, but in the meantime, macro forces will continue taking their toll on crypto.
If stocks are due to dive as central banks act, notionally to combat inflation, crypto’s increasing correlation to them means only one thing.
“The short-term (10-day) correlation is high, and the medium term (30-day and 90-day) correlations are moving up and to the right. This is not what we want,” Hayes argued about crypto correlations with the Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
“For me to hoist the flag in support of selling fiat and buying crypto in advance of an NDX meltdown (30% to 50% drawdown), correlations across all time frames need to trend demonstratively lower.”
Could equities really see half their value removed as a result of the Fed and its actions? It would be anyone’s guess, Hayes answered.
“Down 30%? [...] Down 50%? […] your guess is as good as mine,” he added.
“But let’s be clear– the Fed isn’t planning to grow its balance sheet again any time soon, meaning equities ain’t going any higher.”
Sentiment diverges from traditional markets
With the macro gloom on the horizon, it is no surprise that market sentiment is taking a beating.
Having sensed “greed” across crypto at the end of March, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is now firmly back in “fear” territory.
An analog of the traditional market Fear & Greed Index, the metric has shed half its normalized score in under two weeks as cold feet return to traders.
On April 11, Crypto Fear & Greed measured 32/100, while its traditional market counterpart was higher at 46/100, defined as “neutral.”
Deserved or not, Van de Poppe, meanwhile, reminded readers not to trade based on sentiment cues.
“Everyone was super bullish on the markets, but now the markets start to correct, and the fear takes over,” he summarized.
“The sentiment isn't a great indicator of how you should trade usually.”
Fundamentals keep the faith
A glimmer of hope comes from a familiar source this week. For all the price drawdowns, Bitcoin’s network difficulty is only due to decrease by 0.4% in the next few days.
Related: Top 5 cryptocurrencies to watch this week: BTC, NEAR, FTT, ETC, XMR
Arguably the most important aspect of the Bitcoin network’s self-maintaining paradigm, the difficulty will adjust downward from all-time highs to reflect changes in mining composition.
The adjustment’s small size suggests that miners remain financially buoyant at current levels and are not struggling despite last week’s 10% BTC/USD dip.
Further data supports the argument, with hash rate estimates from monitoring resource MiningPoolStats likewise lingering at record highs.
As Cointelegraph recently reported, mining continues to attract major investment, including from Blockstream, which last week announced a solar-powered farm set to generate 30 petahashes per second in hash rate once operational.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
bonds covid-19 sp 500 nasdaq shanghai composite equities stocks cryptocurrency bitcoin crypto btc euro crypto
Uncategorized
Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more
New Zillow research suggests the spring home shopping season may see a second wave this summer if mortgage rates fall
The post Homes listed for sale in…
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- A Zillow analysis of 2023 home sales finds homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more.
- The best time to list a home for sale is a month later than it was in 2019, likely driven by mortgage rates.
- The best time to list can be as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York and Philadelphia.
Spring home sellers looking to maximize their sale price may want to wait it out and list their home for sale in the first half of June. A new Zillow® analysis of 2023 sales found that homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more, a $7,700 boost on a typical U.S. home.
The best time to list consistently had been early May in the years leading up to the pandemic. The shift to June suggests mortgage rates are strongly influencing demand on top of the usual seasonality that brings buyers to the market in the spring. This home-shopping season is poised to follow a similar pattern as that in 2023, with the potential for a second wave if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates midyear or later.
The 2.3% sale price premium registered last June followed the first spring in more than 15 years with mortgage rates over 6% on a 30-year fixed-rate loan. The high rates put home buyers on the back foot, and as rates continued upward through May, they were still reassessing and less likely to bid boldly. In June, however, rates pulled back a little from 6.79% to 6.67%, which likely presented an opportunity for determined buyers heading into summer. More buyers understood their market position and could afford to transact, boosting competition and sale prices.
The old logic was that sellers could earn a premium by listing in late spring, when search activity hit its peak. Now, with persistently low inventory, mortgage rate fluctuations make their own seasonality. First-time home buyers who are on the edge of qualifying for a home loan may dip in and out of the market, depending on what’s happening with rates. It is almost certain the Federal Reserve will push back any interest-rate cuts to mid-2024 at the earliest. If mortgage rates follow, that could bring another surge of buyers later this year.
Mortgage rates have been impacting affordability and sale prices since they began rising rapidly two years ago. In 2022, sellers nationwide saw the highest sale premium when they listed their home in late March, right before rates barreled past 5% and continued climbing.
Zillow’s research finds the best time to list can vary widely by metropolitan area. In 2023, it was as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York. Thirty of the top 35 largest metro areas saw for-sale listings command the highest sale prices between May and early July last year.
Zillow also found a wide range in the sale price premiums associated with homes listed during those peak periods. At the hottest time of the year in San Jose, homes sold for 5.5% more, a $88,000 boost on a typical home. Meanwhile, homes in San Antonio sold for 1.9% more during that same time period.
| Metropolitan Area | Best Time to List | Price Premium | Dollar Boost |
| United States | First half of June | 2.3% | $7,700 |
| New York, NY | First half of July | 2.4% | $15,500 |
| Los Angeles, CA | First half of May | 4.1% | $39,300 |
| Chicago, IL | First half of June | 2.8% | $8,800 |
| Dallas, TX | First half of June | 2.5% | $9,200 |
| Houston, TX | Second half of April | 2.0% | $6,200 |
| Washington, DC | Second half of June | 2.2% | $12,700 |
| Philadelphia, PA | First half of July | 2.4% | $8,200 |
| Miami, FL | First half of June | 2.3% | $12,900 |
| Atlanta, GA | Second half of June | 2.3% | $8,700 |
| Boston, MA | Second half of May | 3.5% | $23,600 |
| Phoenix, AZ | First half of June | 3.2% | $14,700 |
| San Francisco, CA | Second half of February | 4.2% | $50,300 |
| Riverside, CA | First half of May | 2.7% | $15,600 |
| Detroit, MI | First half of July | 3.3% | $7,900 |
| Seattle, WA | First half of June | 4.3% | $31,500 |
| Minneapolis, MN | Second half of May | 3.7% | $13,400 |
| San Diego, CA | Second half of April | 3.1% | $29,600 |
| Tampa, FL | Second half of June | 2.1% | $8,000 |
| Denver, CO | Second half of May | 2.9% | $16,900 |
| Baltimore, MD | First half of July | 2.2% | $8,200 |
| St. Louis, MO | First half of June | 2.9% | $7,000 |
| Orlando, FL | First half of June | 2.2% | $8,700 |
| Charlotte, NC | Second half of May | 3.0% | $11,000 |
| San Antonio, TX | First half of June | 1.9% | $5,400 |
| Portland, OR | Second half of April | 2.6% | $14,300 |
| Sacramento, CA | First half of June | 3.2% | $17,900 |
| Pittsburgh, PA | Second half of June | 2.3% | $4,700 |
| Cincinnati, OH | Second half of April | 2.7% | $7,500 |
| Austin, TX | Second half of May | 2.8% | $12,600 |
| Las Vegas, NV | First half of June | 3.4% | $14,600 |
| Kansas City, MO | Second half of May | 2.5% | $7,300 |
| Columbus, OH | Second half of June | 3.3% | $10,400 |
| Indianapolis, IN | First half of July | 3.0% | $8,100 |
| Cleveland, OH | First half of July | 3.4% | $7,400 |
| San Jose, CA | First half of June | 5.5% | $88,400 |
The post Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more appeared first on Zillow Research.
federal reserve pandemic home sales mortgage rates interest ratesGovernment
Survey Shows Declining Concerns Among Americans About COVID-19
Survey Shows Declining Concerns Among Americans About COVID-19
A new survey reveals that only 20% of Americans view covid-19 as "a major threat"…
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A new survey reveals that only 20% of Americans view covid-19 as "a major threat" to the health of the US population - a sharp decline from a high of 67% in July 2020.
What's more, the Pew Research Center survey conducted from Feb. 7 to Feb. 11 showed that just 10% of Americans are concerned that they will catch the disease and require hospitalization.
"This data represents a low ebb of public concern about the virus that reached its height in the summer and fall of 2020, when as many as two-thirds of Americans viewed COVID-19 as a major threat to public health," reads the report, which was published March 7.
According to the survey, half of the participants understand the significance of researchers and healthcare providers in understanding and treating long COVID - however 27% of participants consider this issue less important, while 22% of Americans are unaware of long COVID.
What's more, while Democrats were far more worried than Republicans in the past, that gap has narrowed significantly.
"In the pandemic’s first year, Democrats were routinely about 40 points more likely than Republicans to view the coronavirus as a major threat to the health of the U.S. population. This gap has waned as overall levels of concern have fallen," reads the report.
More via the Epoch Times;
The survey found that three in ten Democrats under 50 have received an updated COVID-19 vaccine, compared with 66 percent of Democrats ages 65 and older.
Moreover, 66 percent of Democrats ages 65 and older have received the updated COVID-19 vaccine, while only 24 percent of Republicans ages 65 and older have done so.
“This 42-point partisan gap is much wider now than at other points since the start of the outbreak. For instance, in August 2021, 93 percent of older Democrats and 78 percent of older Republicans said they had received all the shots needed to be fully vaccinated (a 15-point gap),” it noted.
COVID-19 No Longer an Emergency
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently issued its updated recommendations for the virus, which no longer require people to stay home for five days after testing positive for COVID-19.
The updated guidance recommends that people who contracted a respiratory virus stay home, and they can resume normal activities when their symptoms improve overall and their fever subsides for 24 hours without medication.
“We still must use the commonsense solutions we know work to protect ourselves and others from serious illness from respiratory viruses, this includes vaccination, treatment, and staying home when we get sick,” CDC director Dr. Mandy Cohen said in a statement.
The CDC said that while the virus remains a threat, it is now less likely to cause severe illness because of widespread immunity and improved tools to prevent and treat the disease.
“Importantly, states and countries that have already adjusted recommended isolation times have not seen increased hospitalizations or deaths related to COVID-19,” it stated.
The federal government suspended its free at-home COVID-19 test program on March 8, according to a website set up by the government, following a decrease in COVID-19-related hospitalizations.
According to the CDC, hospitalization rates for COVID-19 and influenza diseases remain “elevated” but are decreasing in some parts of the United States.
Government
Rand Paul Teases Senate GOP Leader Run – Musk Says “I Would Support”
Rand Paul Teases Senate GOP Leader Run – Musk Says "I Would Support"
Republican Kentucky Senator Rand Paul on Friday hinted that he may jump…
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Republican Kentucky Senator Rand Paul on Friday hinted that he may jump into the race to become the next Senate GOP leader, and Elon Musk was quick to support the idea. Republicans must find a successor for periodically malfunctioning Mitch McConnell, who recently announced he'll step down in November, though intending to keep his Senate seat until his term ends in January 2027, when he'd be within weeks of turning 86.
So far, the announced field consists of two quintessential establishment types: John Cornyn of Texas and John Thune of South Dakota. While John Barrasso's name had been thrown around as one of "The Three Johns" considered top contenders, the Wyoming senator on Tuesday said he'll instead seek the number two slot as party whip.
Paul used X to tease his potential bid for the position which -- if the GOP takes back the upper chamber in November -- could graduate from Minority Leader to Majority Leader. He started by telling his 5.1 million followers he'd had lots of people asking him about his interest in running...
Thousands of people have been asking if I'd run for Senate leadership...
— Rand Paul (@RandPaul) March 8, 2024
...then followed up with a poll in which he predictably annihilated Cornyn and Thune, taking a 96% share as of Friday night, with the other two below 2% each.
????????️VOTE NOW ????️ ???? Who would you like to be the next Senate leader?
— Rand Paul (@RandPaul) March 8, 2024
Elon Musk was quick to back the idea of Paul as GOP leader, while daring Cornyn and Thune to follow Paul's lead by throwing their names out for consideration by the Twitter-verse X-verse.
I would support Rand Paul and suspect that other candidates will not actually run polls out of concern for the results, but let’s see if they will!
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 8, 2024
Paul has been a stalwart opponent of security-state mass surveillance, foreign interventionism -- to include shoveling billions of dollars into the proxy war in Ukraine -- and out-of-control spending in general. He demonstrated the latter passion on the Senate floor this week as he ridiculed the latest kick-the-can spending package:
This bill is an insult to the American people. The earmarks are all the wasteful spending that you could ever hope to see, and it should be defeated. Read more: https://t.co/Jt8K5iucA4 pic.twitter.com/I5okd4QgDg
— Senator Rand Paul (@SenRandPaul) March 8, 2024
In February, Paul used Senate rules to force his colleagues into a grueling Super Bowl weekend of votes, as he worked to derail a $95 billion foreign aid bill. "I think we should stay here as long as it takes,” said Paul. “If it takes a week or a month, I’ll force them to stay here to discuss why they think the border of Ukraine is more important than the US border.”
Don't expect a Majority Leader Paul to ditch the filibuster -- he's been a hardy user of the legislative delay tactic. In 2013, he spoke for 13 hours to fight the nomination of John Brennan as CIA director. In 2015, he orated for 10-and-a-half-hours to oppose extension of the Patriot Act.
Among the general public, Paul is probably best known as Capitol Hill's chief tormentor of Dr. Anthony Fauci, who was director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease during the Covid-19 pandemic. Paul says the evidence indicates the virus emerged from China's Wuhan Institute of Virology. He's accused Fauci and other members of the US government public health apparatus of evading questions about their funding of the Chinese lab's "gain of function" research, which takes natural viruses and morphs them into something more dangerous. Paul has pointedly said that Fauci committed perjury in congressional hearings and that he belongs in jail "without question."
Musk is neither the only nor the first noteworthy figure to back Paul for party leader. Just hours after McConnell announced his upcoming step-down from leadership, independent 2024 presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr voiced his support:
Mitch McConnell, who has served in the Senate for almost 40 years, announced he'll step down this November.
— Robert F. Kennedy Jr (@RobertKennedyJr) February 28, 2024
Part of public service is about knowing when to usher in a new generation. It’s time to promote leaders in Washington, DC who won’t kowtow to the military contractors or…
In a testament to the extent to which the establishment recoils at the libertarian-minded Paul, mainstream media outlets -- which have been quick to report on other developments in the majority leader race -- pretended not to notice that Paul had signaled his interest in the job. More than 24 hours after Paul's test-the-waters tweet-fest began, not a single major outlet had brought it to the attention of their audience.
That may be his strongest endorsement yet.
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