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BTC miners ‘finally capitulating’ — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin rebounds strongly off the weekly close, but for BTC miners, it may be a case of “too little too late.”
Bitcoin (BTC) starts…

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Bitcoin rebounds strongly off the weekly close, but for BTC miners, it may be a case of “too little too late.”

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week nearing key resistance as the shock of the latest United States inflation data passes — can the strength continue?

The July 17 weekly close may have been practically identical to the last, but BTC/USD is showing some much-needed strength prior to the July 18 Wall Street open.

Last week was a testing time for crypto hodlers everywhere, with inflation dictating the mood across risk assets and the U.S. dollar capping the gloomy atmosphere. With those pressures now easing — at least temporarily — the mood has room to relax.

At the same time, on-chain data suggests that now is a make-or-break moment for Bitcoin miners, and capitulation across the market feels close.

As talk over where Bitcoin’s macro bottom could lie continues, Cointelegraph takes a look at several factors primed to shape BTC price performance in the coming days.

All eyes on weekly moving averages

Those watching the weekly chart on BTC will have a sense of deja vu this time around — BTC/USD finished July 17 under $100 away from where it was on July 10.

The latest weekly close is something of a disappointment in and of itself, with Bitcoin erasing gains at the last minute to print a “red” candle for the past seven days.

What happened next, on the other hand, had the opposite tone — a swift overnight march higher, the largest cryptocurrency adding $1,400 in under twelve hours.

It all leads up to a familiar challenge on intraday timeframes — BTC/USD is approaching both $22,000 and a key trendline at $22,600 in the form of the 200-week moving average (WMA).

Previously acting as support in bear markets, the 200 WMA has, in fact, flipped to resistance this time around, having been lost in mid-June and never reclaimed.

As such, analysts are eyeing that level as a key area of interest should bulls be able to sustain upside pressure.

For PlanB, creator of the Stock-to-Flow family of BTC price models, a factor beyond spot price is meanwhile reinforcing its importance. As in previous bear markets, the 200 WMA briefly went above Bitcoin’s realized price this year, providing a classic market reversal signal.

Realized price refers to the average price at which all the Bitcoin in existence last moved.

“In the bear market of 2014/15 and 2018/19 (blue) realized price was above 200WMA and the bull market did not start until realized price and 200WMA touched,” PlanB told Twitter followers on July 17 alongside an accompanying chart:

“Now realized price and 200WMA already touched at $22K. For the next bull market we need BTC above realized price and 200WMA.”

As Cointelegraph reported, bulls seem to need to play a game of moving averages on longer timeframes, too. In addition to the 200 WMA, the 50-week and 100-week exponential moving averages (EMAs) also figure in forecasts.

The 50 EMA currently sits at $36,000 and the 100 EMA at just above $34,300, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp) with 50, 100 EMA; 200 WMA. Source: TradingView

Ethereum nears $1,500 in potential trendsetter move

One catalyst that could take Bitcoin over its key resistance mark at $22,600 could come from an unlikely source — altcoins.

While normally moves on Bitcoin see other cryptocurrencies before copycat moves up or down, this week, some are waiting to see if BTC/USD will follow largest altcoin Ether (ETH) higher.

Amid news that its transition to proof-of-stake (PoS) mining could soon complete, Ethereum has outperformed in terms of price gains in recent days, and is up 25% over the past week alone.

At the time of writing, ETH/USD was about to challenge $1,500 for the first time since June 12.

“$eth reclaimed its 200 week moving average this week, btc will probably next week, the time to be bearish has defo to an end imo,” popular Twitter account Bluntz summarized on July 18.

Fellow commentator Light likewise considered that Ether’s strength should keep upward pressure on Bitcoin, noting liquidations among those traders ignoring the ETH moves and continuing to be short BTC.

Cross-crypto short liquidations in the 24 hours into July 18 totaled around $132 million, data from on-chain monitoring resource Coinglass confirms.

Crypto liquidations chart. Source: Coinglass

Going forward, however, not everyone is convinced that Ether will be able to break its overall downtrend, with the implications obvious for other tokens as a result.

Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe argued that the pull of the weekend CME futures gap on Bitcoin could provide a downside force to puncture the optimism.

CME futures finished their previous trading day, July 15, at around $21,200.

“With the potential of a CME gap beneath us (and Bitcoin swimming around the previous CME gap), I won’t be surprised with a fake-out move and retest lower for $ETH,” he wrote in an update:

“Looking to get into longs around the $1,250-1,280 region.”
ETH/USD 1-hour candle chart (Binance). Source: TradingView

Dollar strength finally flips in Bitcoin’s favor

On the topic of macro movements, the landscape looks overall less frenetic than that which greeted crypto investors last week.

Inflation data has come and gone, and the debate over whether inflation has or has not peaked in the U.S. thus cools until the next Consumer Price Index (CPI) print in August.

The Federal Reserve will decide on how to tackle inflation regarding key interest rate hikes later this month. Meanwhile, the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) is nonetheless set to meet only on July 26.

Any macro cues when it comes to BTC price action will thus be coming from other areas, with geopolitical triggers high on the list of potential factors.

Asian markets were stronger as the week began, thanks to a modest recovery in Chinese tech stocks previously hammered by COVID-19 nerves.

At the same time, the U.S. dollar, the star of recent weeks as equities worldwide felt pressure, began to consolidate its gains.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY), a strength that has long been inversely correlated with crypto asset performance, headed south under 108 on the day, having reached fresh two-decade highs the previous week.

“Finally seeing a drop on the daily,” Twitter analyst IncomeSharks commented, highlighting the potential for DXY to test a trendline from May:

“Even a drop to this trend line would be big for Stocks and Crypto. Would line up perfectly with a bullish week before the FED meeting.”

Fellow account Rickus also felt that Bitcoin would not “break down again” despite a pullback still being possible — thanks to the DXY comedown and a stronger finish for the S&P 500.

“Should give room this week for equities & crypto to bounce until it find near support,” 0xWyckoff, creator of crypto trading resource Rekt Academy, added in part of a thread about the DXY.

In a separate observation, meanwhile, Dan Tapiero, managing partner and CEO at 10T Holdings, noted that a macro USD high versus the Chinese yuan should mark a turnaround point for BTC.

“Last 3 major BTC highs in 2014, 2018, 2021 roughly coincided with highs in Chinese RMB/lows in USD,” he noted in part of a tweet on July 18:

“Suggests that Dollar peak soon would be supportive of BTC low.”
U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView

Miners dump 14,000 BTC in days

With so much hope that a trend turnaround could be on the cards, on-chain data showing Bitcoin miners selling inventory looks all the bleaker.

According to data from the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, beginning July 14, miners removed a significant chunk of BTC from their reserves.

The effect was that miner reserves fell to their lowest levels since July 2021, a point which also marked a BTC price low.

Reserves stood at 1.84 million BTC on July 18, down 14,000 BTC versus the July 14 tally.

For CryptoQuant contributor Edris, the numbers were an encouraging sign, hinting that miners were now contributing to establishing a macro BTC price floor.

“Bitcoin miners are finally capitulating,” he summarized over the weekend:

“BTC price has been consolidating at the $20K level for the past few weeks, making investors wonder whether an accumulation or distribution phase is going on. Looking at the Miners’ Reserve chart, it seems like the latter is the case.”
Bitcoin miner reserves chart. Source: CryptoQuant

Macro analyst Alex Krueger, meanwhile, described June’s miner sales as a “clear sign of capitulation,” adding that miners “tend to accumulate on the way up then puke when things go bad.”

RSI sparks “very rare” BTC price inflection point

Finally, a “rare” event on the Bitcoin chart may just have provided the fuel for a historic turnaround, analysis suggests.

Related: Top 5 cryptocurrencies to watch this week: BTC, ETH, MATIC, FTT, ETC

Taking the BTC/USD chart from the beginning of Bitcoin’s lifespan, Stockmoney Lizards noted that Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) is now at suitably low levels and has combined with a touch of a log chart trendline which sparked the greatest BTC price recoveries.

“Current exciting and very rare situation now,” it announced over the weekend:

“RSI below 45 and logaritmic bottom showed a great reversal in the past, followed by a crazy bull run. Cross = RSI

An accompanying chart showed the power of such an event, which follows RSI hitting its lowest levels on record.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Stockmoney Lizards/ Twitter

For CoinPicks analyst Johnny Szerdi, Bitcoin needed to break the 50 mark on RSI, a key resistance zone in recent months, to avoid the risk of a fresh sell-off.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Analyst reviews Apple stock price target amid challenges

Here’s what could happen to Apple shares next.

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They said it was bound to happen.

It was Jan. 11, 2024 when software giant Microsoft  (MSFT)  briefly passed Apple  (AAPL)  as the most valuable company in the world.

Microsoft's stock closed 0.5% higher, giving it a market valuation of $2.859 trillion. 

It rose as much as 2% during the session and the company was briefly worth $2.903 trillion. Apple closed 0.3% lower, giving the company a market capitalization of $2.886 trillion. 

"It was inevitable that Microsoft would overtake Apple since Microsoft is growing faster and has more to benefit from the generative AI revolution," D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria said at the time, according to Reuters.

The two tech titans have jostled for top spot over the years and Microsoft was ahead at last check, with a market cap of $3.085 trillion, compared with Apple's value of $2.684 trillion.

Analysts noted that Apple had been dealing with weakening demand, including for the iPhone, the company’s main source of revenue. 

Demand in China, a major market, has slumped as the country's economy makes a slow recovery from the pandemic and competition from Huawei.

Sales in China of Apple's iPhone fell by 24% in the first six weeks of 2024 compared with a year earlier, according to research firm Counterpoint, as the company contended with stiff competition from a resurgent Huawei "while getting squeezed in the middle on aggressive pricing from the likes of OPPO, vivo and Xiaomi," said senior Analyst Mengmeng Zhang.

“Although the iPhone 15 is a great device, it has no significant upgrades from the previous version, so consumers feel fine holding on to the older-generation iPhones for now," he said.

A man scrolling through Netflix on an Apple iPad Pro. Photo by Phil Barker/Future Publishing via Getty Images.

Future Publishing/Getty Images

Big plans for China

Counterpoint said that the first six weeks of 2023 saw abnormally high numbers with significant unit sales being deferred from December 2022 due to production issues.

Apple is planning to open its eighth store in Shanghai – and its 47th across China – on March 21.

Related: Tech News Now: OpenAI says Musk contract 'never existed', Xiaomi's EV, and more

The company also plans to expand its research centre in Shanghai to support all of its product lines and open a new lab in southern tech hub Shenzhen later this year, according to the South China Morning Post.

Meanwhile, over in Europe, Apple announced changes to comply with the European Union's Digital Markets Act (DMA), which went into effect last week, Reuters reported on March 12.

Beginning this spring, software developers operating in Europe will be able to distribute apps to EU customers directly from their own websites instead of through the App Store.

"To reflect the DMA’s changes, users in the EU can install apps from alternative app marketplaces in iOS 17.4 and later," Apple said on its website, referring to the software platform that runs iPhones and iPads. 

"Users will be able to download an alternative marketplace app from the marketplace developer’s website," the company said.

Apple has also said it will appeal a $2 billion EU antitrust fine for thwarting competition from Spotify  (SPOT)  and other music streaming rivals via restrictions on the App Store.

The company's shares have suffered amid all this upheaval, but some analysts still see good things in Apple's future.

Bank of America Securities confirmed its positive stance on Apple, maintaining a buy rating with a steady price target of $225, according to Investing.com

The firm's analysis highlighted Apple's pricing strategy evolution since the introduction of the first iPhone in 2007, with initial prices set at $499 for the 4GB model and $599 for the 8GB model.

BofA said that Apple has consistently launched new iPhone models, including the Pro/Pro Max versions, to target the premium market. 

Analyst says Apple selloff 'overdone'

Concurrently, prices for previous models are typically reduced by about $100 with each new release. 

This strategy, coupled with installment plans from Apple and carriers, has contributed to the iPhone's installed base reaching a record 1.2 billion in 2023, the firm said.

More Tech Stocks:

Apple has effectively shifted its sales mix toward higher-value units despite experiencing slower unit sales, BofA said.

This trend is expected to persist and could help mitigate potential unit sales weaknesses, particularly in China. 

BofA also noted Apple's dominance in the high-end market, maintaining a market share of over 90% in the $1,000 and above price band for the past three years.

The firm also cited the anticipation of a multi-year iPhone cycle propelled by next-generation AI technology, robust services growth, and the potential for margin expansion.

On Monday, Evercore ISI analysts said they believed that the sell-off in the iPhone maker’s shares may be “overdone.”

The firm said that investors' growing preference for AI-focused stocks like Nvidia  (NVDA)  has led to a reallocation of funds away from Apple. 

In addition, Evercore said concerns over weakening demand in China, where Apple may be losing market share in the smartphone segment, have affected investor sentiment.

And then ongoing regulatory issues continue to have an impact on investor confidence in the world's second-biggest company.

“We think the sell-off is rather overdone, while we suspect there is strong valuation support at current levels to down 10%, there are three distinct drivers that could unlock upside on the stock from here – a) Cap allocation, b) AI inferencing, and c) Risk-off/defensive shift," the firm said in a research note.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Major typhoid fever surveillance study in sub-Saharan Africa indicates need for the introduction of typhoid conjugate vaccines in endemic countries

There is a high burden of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan African countries, according to a new study published today in The Lancet Global Health. This high…

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There is a high burden of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan African countries, according to a new study published today in The Lancet Global Health. This high burden combined with the threat of typhoid strains resistant to antibiotic treatment calls for stronger prevention strategies, including the use and implementation of typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs) in endemic settings along with improvements in access to safe water, sanitation, and hygiene.

Credit: IVI

There is a high burden of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan African countries, according to a new study published today in The Lancet Global Health. This high burden combined with the threat of typhoid strains resistant to antibiotic treatment calls for stronger prevention strategies, including the use and implementation of typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs) in endemic settings along with improvements in access to safe water, sanitation, and hygiene.

 

The findings from this 4-year study, the Severe Typhoid in Africa (SETA) program, offers new typhoid fever burden estimates from six countries: Burkina Faso, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Ghana, Madagascar, and Nigeria, with four countries recording more than 100 cases for every 100,000 person-years of observation, which is considered a high burden. The highest incidence of typhoid was found in DRC with 315 cases per 100,000 people while children between 2-14 years of age were shown to be at highest risk across all 25 study sites.

 

There are an estimated 12.5 to 16.3 million cases of typhoid every year with 140,000 deaths. However, with generic symptoms such as fever, fatigue, and abdominal pain, and the need for blood culture sampling to make a definitive diagnosis, it is difficult for governments to capture the true burden of typhoid in their countries.

 

“Our goal through SETA was to address these gaps in typhoid disease burden data,” said lead author Dr. Florian Marks, Deputy Director General of the International Vaccine Institute (IVI). “Our estimates indicate that introduction of TCV in endemic settings would go to lengths in protecting communities, especially school-aged children, against this potentially deadly—but preventable—disease.”

 

In addition to disease incidence, this study also showed that the emergence of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in Salmonella Typhi, the bacteria that causes typhoid fever, has led to more reliance beyond the traditional first line of antibiotic treatment. If left untreated, severe cases of the disease can lead to intestinal perforation and even death. This suggests that prevention through vaccination may play a critical role in not only protecting against typhoid fever but reducing the spread of drug-resistant strains of the bacteria.

 

There are two TCVs prequalified by the World Health Organization (WHO) and available through Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. In February 2024, IVI and SK bioscience announced that a third TCV, SKYTyphoid™, also achieved WHO PQ, paving the way for public procurement and increasing the global supply.

 

Alongside the SETA disease burden study, IVI has been working with colleagues in three African countries to show the real-world impact of TCV vaccination. These studies include a cluster-randomized trial in Agogo, Ghana and two effectiveness studies following mass vaccination in Kisantu, DRC and Imerintsiatosika, Madagascar.

 

Dr. Birkneh Tilahun Tadesse, Associate Director General at IVI and Head of the Real-World Evidence Department, explains, “Through these vaccine effectiveness studies, we aim to show the full public health value of TCV in settings that are directly impacted by a high burden of typhoid fever.” He adds, “Our final objective of course is to eliminate typhoid or to at least reduce the burden to low incidence levels, and that’s what we are attempting in Fiji with an island-wide vaccination campaign.”

 

As more countries in typhoid endemic countries, namely in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, consider TCV in national immunization programs, these data will help inform evidence-based policy decisions around typhoid prevention and control.

 

###

 

About the International Vaccine Institute (IVI)
The International Vaccine Institute (IVI) is a non-profit international organization established in 1997 at the initiative of the United Nations Development Programme with a mission to discover, develop, and deliver safe, effective, and affordable vaccines for global health.

IVI’s current portfolio includes vaccines at all stages of pre-clinical and clinical development for infectious diseases that disproportionately affect low- and middle-income countries, such as cholera, typhoid, chikungunya, shigella, salmonella, schistosomiasis, hepatitis E, HPV, COVID-19, and more. IVI developed the world’s first low-cost oral cholera vaccine, pre-qualified by the World Health Organization (WHO) and developed a new-generation typhoid conjugate vaccine that is recently pre-qualified by WHO.

IVI is headquartered in Seoul, Republic of Korea with a Europe Regional Office in Sweden, a Country Office in Austria, and Collaborating Centers in Ghana, Ethiopia, and Madagascar. 39 countries and the WHO are members of IVI, and the governments of the Republic of Korea, Sweden, India, Finland, and Thailand provide state funding. For more information, please visit https://www.ivi.int.

 

CONTACT

Aerie Em, Global Communications & Advocacy Manager
+82 2 881 1386 | aerie.em@ivi.int


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US Spent More Than Double What It Collected In February, As 2024 Deficit Is Second Highest Ever… And Debt Explodes

US Spent More Than Double What It Collected In February, As 2024 Deficit Is Second Highest Ever… And Debt Explodes

Earlier today, CNBC’s…

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US Spent More Than Double What It Collected In February, As 2024 Deficit Is Second Highest Ever... And Debt Explodes

Earlier today, CNBC's Brian Sullivan took a horse dose of Red Pills when, about six months after our readers, he learned that the US is issuing $1 trillion in debt every 100 days, which prompted him to rage tweet, (or rageX, not sure what the proper term is here) the following:

We’ve added 60% to national debt since 2018. Germany - a country with major economic woes - added ‘just’ 32%.   

Maybe it will never matter.   Maybe MMT is real.   Maybe we just cancel or inflate it out. Maybe career real estate borrowers or career politicians aren’t the answer.

I have no idea.  Only time will tell.   But it’s going to be fascinating to watch it play out.

He is right: it will be fascinating, and the latest budget deficit data simply confirmed that the day of reckoning will come very soon, certainly sooner than the two years that One River's Eric Peters predicted this weekend for the coming "US debt sustainability crisis."

According to the US Treasury, in February, the US collected $271 billion in various tax receipts, and spent $567 billion, more than double what it collected.

The two charts below show the divergence in US tax receipts which have flatlined (on a trailing 6M basis) since the covid pandemic in 2020 (with occasional stimmy-driven surges)...

... and spending which is about 50% higher compared to where it was in 2020.

The end result is that in February, the budget deficit rose to $296.3 billion, up 12.9% from a year prior, and the second highest February deficit on record.

And the punchline: on a cumulative basis, the budget deficit in fiscal 2024 which began on October 1, 2023 is now $828 billion, the second largest cumulative deficit through February on record, surpassed only by the peak covid year of 2021.

But wait there's more: because in a world where the US is spending more than twice what it is collecting, the endgame is clear: debt collapse, and while it won't be tomorrow, or the week after, it is coming... and it's also why the US is now selling $1 trillion in debt every 100 days just to keep operating (and absorbing all those millions of illegal immigrants who will keep voting democrat to preserve the socialist system of the US, so beloved by the Soros clan).

And it gets even worse, because we are now in the ponzi finance stage of the Minsky cycle, with total interest on the debt annualizing well above $1 trillion, and rising every day

... having already surpassed total US defense spending and soon to surpass total health spending and, finally all social security spending, the largest spending category of all, which means that US debt will now rise exponentially higher until the inevitable moment when the US dollar loses its reserve status and it all comes crashing down.

We conclude with another observation by CNBC's Brian Sullivan, who quotes an email by a DC strategist...

.. which lays out the proposed Biden budget as follows:

The budget deficit will growth another $16 TRILLION over next 10 years. Thats *with* the proposed massive tax hikes.

Without them the deficit will grow $19 trillion.

That's why you will hear the "deficit is being reduced by $3 trillion" over the decade.

No family budget or business could exist with this kind of math.

Of course, in the long run, neither can the US... and since neither party will ever cut the spending which everyone by now is so addicted to, the best anyone can do is start planning for the endgame.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/12/2024 - 18:40

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