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BTC Dreads Weekly Close, Satoshi Mystery, A Big Blunder: Hodler’s Digest, May 18–24

BTC Dreads Weekly Close, Satoshi Mystery, A Big Blunder: Hodler’s Digest, May 18–24

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Bitcoin faces a crucial weekly close, the mystery of coins moved for the first time in 11 years, and Times Square billboards call for the release of Ross Ulbricht.

Coming every Sunday, Hodler’s Digest will help you track every single important news story that happened this week. The best (and worst) quotes, adoption and regulation highlights, leading coins, predictions and much more — a week on Cointelegraph in one link.

Top Stories This Week

Why today’s weekly close is crucial to avoid $8,000s

Not so long ago, the crypto community was abuzz with the expectation that Bitcoin was about to surge into five figures — dreaming dreams of a parabolic bull run. How things change. Right now, BTC is in a battle to stay in the $9,000s, and all eyes are on the weekly close. The world’s biggest cryptocurrency needed to end Sunday above $9,300 to avoid the risk of a further slide, according to Cointelegraph contributor flibflib. He says failure to retain this level will likely see BTC “retest the May lows and the 20-week moving average, currently around $8,160.” So, has Bitcoin topped out? Is there too much selling pressure around $10,000? Well, analysis of Binance’s order book suggests there is huge resistance between $9,500 and $10,005… and this is unlikely to step in until more buyers enter the market.

Did Satoshi Nakamoto just move his coins for the first time in 11 years?

Some of the earliest mined Bitcoin moved for the first time in 11 years this week. An address containing 50 BTC created in February 2009 — barely one month after the launch of the Bitcoin mainnet — swept its entire holdings to two different wallets. This led to frenzied speculation that Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous inventor of BTC, might be on the move. Bitcoin’s price actually fell from $9,900 to $9,300 as the market digested the transaction, but it began to recover as details about the intricacies of the transaction reduced the likelihood that Satoshi was involved. As Casa CEO Jameson Lopp told Cointelegraph: “Could be a million possible reasons. Maybe someone found a lost hard drive. Maybe someone needed to make a super-private transaction, so they used freshly mined coins. Maybe it’s just someone diversifying their assets.”

Where are the Bitcoin pizza coins now?

There was another blast from the past this week as the crypto community marked the 10th anniversary of Bitcoin Pizza Day. Back in 2010, programmer Laszlo Hanyecz paid 10,000 BTC for two Papa John’s pies — a purchase that would have been worth $92.5 million at today’s rates. New analysis has shown that a large chunk of this crypto went to a now-defunct exchange, while a slice has found its way to one of the most sizable Bitcoin wallets currently in existence. (Indeed, it seems many people have also had horror stories about the frivolous things they spent BTC on in the early days.) Despite promising growth and excitement during crypto’s bullish phases, payments with crypto remain niche at best. Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek told Cointelegraph “crypto is still something unknown” for the vast majority of merchants — and lack of trust is a particular problem. Pundi X chief ecosystem officer Peko Wan added: “For the mainstream, the general perception toward crypto are ‘complicated to use’ or ‘risky to own cryptos.’”

CZ may have pulled an Elon Musk-style gaffe on Twitter

Binance’s blockbuster acquisition of CoinMarketCap raised eyebrows — with some critics fearing that there was high potential for conflict of interest. Now, the exchange’s CEO, Changpeng Zhao, may have inadvertently admitted his involvement in managing CMC. In a tweet, he said: “This ranking is currently heavily biased towards web traffic, not 100% accurate, but better than before. Will continue to iterate.” Even if CZ isn’t involved in the configuration of various CMC metrics, it raises the question of why he is making public statements that suggest otherwise — and it could resemble public pressure on CMC’s management. The situation is reminiscent of a Twitter-enabled gaffe by Elon Musk, in which careless tweeting got the entrepreneur into trouble with the SEC.

Coinbase CEO suggests dodging “mean, snarky” media

CZ wasn’t the only exchange CEO who has been tweeting enthusiastically of late. Coinbase chief executive Brian Armstrong gave his views on the mainstream media and said many company leaders are opting to speak directly to audiences through blogs and YouTube videos instead of to reporters. Although Armstrong said “there are high-quality journalists out there,” he added many businesses prefer publishing to their own blog instead of getting just one quote in a “sometimes outright mean/snarky article.” His remarks prompted lively debate from other crypto executives. Binance.US CEO Catherine Coley replied: “I actually believe in the press and how important it is. Yes, we can speak directly to current users now, but for advancing the industry it’s more about telling stories through amazing storytellers.”

Winners and Losers

At the end of the week, Bitcoin is at $9,083.49, Ether at $206.75 and XRP at $0.20. The total market cap is at $253,428,684,633.

Among the biggest 100 cryptocurrencies, the top three altcoin gainers of the week are TFUEL, THETA and OMG. The top three altcoin losers of the week are ABBC Coin, Hyperion and Electroneum.

For more info on crypto prices, make sure to read Cointelegraph’s market analysis

Most Memorable Quotations

“Publishing to our own blog/twitter/YouTube lets us say what is on our mind and talk to our customers — not get one quote in an otherwise balanced (or sometimes outright mean/snarky) article.”

Brian Armstrong, Coinbase CEO

“For the vast majority of the merchants out there, just like for the vast majority of retail banking users out there, crypto is still something unknown, something they still didn’t learn to trust.”

Kris Marszalek, Crypto.com CEO

“It’s notable because it’s probably the oldest coins ever spent, so it’s mostly fascinating that someone managed to hold onto them for over a decade and by oldest I mean longest-aged before being spent.”

Jameson Lopp, Casa CEO

“Get gold silver Bitcoin and SAVE YOURSELF.”

Robert Kiyosaki, Rich Dad, Poor Dad author

Prediction of the Week

“It’s just a matter of time” before BTC breaks all-time high, investment app CEO says

The co-founder and CEO of the Bitcoin investing application Amber believes BTC could be en route to hitting its all-time price high once again. Aleks Svetski told Cointelegraph: “It’s just a matter of time — there’s a perfect storm brewing and the pressure will have to go somewhere. With Bitcoin, supply is fixed, and its utility as an un-inflatable and incorruptible money is only increasing — the only thing left to move is price.” Svetski said BTC will need “time and momentum” to return to $20,000, adding that he hoped a lower price floor remains for a longer period so he and others have the opportunity to buy additional, lower-priced BTC. “Retail punters will initially be hesitant, but as it charges ahead to $25K, $30K, $40K, the disbelief will transform into FOMO, and we’ll see an incredible price acceleration,” he said.

FUD of the Week

Times Square billboard calls for release of Silk Road founder

A billboard has emerged in Times Square calling for the release of Ross Ulbricht, the founder of the Silk Road darknet market. The 36-year-old was arrested back in 2013, and two years later he was found guilty of seven charges including drug trafficking, money laundering, computer hacking and criminal enterprise. He is currently serving two life sentences behind bars, with no prospect of parole. The “Free Ross” billboard is set to remain in Times Square for several months, and the publicity was said to have been paid for by a “generous supporter.”

No, ISIS does not have $300 million in a Bitcoin “war chest”

Chainalysis has published a report debunking a number of popular narratives surrounding the use of crypto to finance terrorism. The blockchain intelligence firm’s report emphasizes the harm of false reporting in spreading misinformation and damaging the reputation of firms operating with digital currencies. Reports last week had claimed that the Islamic State’s missing $300-million war chest was being held in BTC, but Chainalysis says such a theory is “highly unlikely.”

New ransomware employs never-before-seen attack method

A new ransomware attack method has been uncovered, which runs a virtual machine on target computers in order to infect them. Sophos, a U.K.-based cybersecurity firm, says the Ragnar Locker attack appears to be quite selective — often targeting companies rather than individual users. The ransomware asks victims for large amounts of money to decrypt their files and threatens to release sensitive data if users do not pay up. One Portuguese company had 10TB of information stolen and was told to pay 1,850 BTC (about $11 million) or see their data enter the public domain.

Best Cointelegraph Features

Bitcoin will create a new economic elite in 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed serious problems of the currently existing financial system — as well as Bitcoin’s benefits over it — writes Jonathan Leong.

Hanko’s time to go? Blockchain as a solution to Japan’s remote working issue

Hanko, or Inkan, is a stamp that’s almost ubiquitous in Japanese work and life. But as Hisashi Oki explains, the coronavirus pandemic is bringing this cultural tradition under renewed scrutiny.

Industry at a crossroads, crypto enters fourth phase of development

A recent Andreessen Horowitz report says crypto is in its growth stage, but critics say the industry is yet to create end-use value. Osato Avan-Nomayo has more.

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Analyst reviews Apple stock price target amid challenges

Here’s what could happen to Apple shares next.

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They said it was bound to happen.

It was Jan. 11, 2024 when software giant Microsoft  (MSFT)  briefly passed Apple  (AAPL)  as the most valuable company in the world.

Microsoft's stock closed 0.5% higher, giving it a market valuation of $2.859 trillion. 

It rose as much as 2% during the session and the company was briefly worth $2.903 trillion. Apple closed 0.3% lower, giving the company a market capitalization of $2.886 trillion. 

"It was inevitable that Microsoft would overtake Apple since Microsoft is growing faster and has more to benefit from the generative AI revolution," D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria said at the time, according to Reuters.

The two tech titans have jostled for top spot over the years and Microsoft was ahead at last check, with a market cap of $3.085 trillion, compared with Apple's value of $2.684 trillion.

Analysts noted that Apple had been dealing with weakening demand, including for the iPhone, the company’s main source of revenue. 

Demand in China, a major market, has slumped as the country's economy makes a slow recovery from the pandemic and competition from Huawei.

Sales in China of Apple's iPhone fell by 24% in the first six weeks of 2024 compared with a year earlier, according to research firm Counterpoint, as the company contended with stiff competition from a resurgent Huawei "while getting squeezed in the middle on aggressive pricing from the likes of OPPO, vivo and Xiaomi," said senior Analyst Mengmeng Zhang.

“Although the iPhone 15 is a great device, it has no significant upgrades from the previous version, so consumers feel fine holding on to the older-generation iPhones for now," he said.

A man scrolling through Netflix on an Apple iPad Pro. Photo by Phil Barker/Future Publishing via Getty Images.

Future Publishing/Getty Images

Big plans for China

Counterpoint said that the first six weeks of 2023 saw abnormally high numbers with significant unit sales being deferred from December 2022 due to production issues.

Apple is planning to open its eighth store in Shanghai – and its 47th across China – on March 21.

Related: Tech News Now: OpenAI says Musk contract 'never existed', Xiaomi's EV, and more

The company also plans to expand its research centre in Shanghai to support all of its product lines and open a new lab in southern tech hub Shenzhen later this year, according to the South China Morning Post.

Meanwhile, over in Europe, Apple announced changes to comply with the European Union's Digital Markets Act (DMA), which went into effect last week, Reuters reported on March 12.

Beginning this spring, software developers operating in Europe will be able to distribute apps to EU customers directly from their own websites instead of through the App Store.

"To reflect the DMA’s changes, users in the EU can install apps from alternative app marketplaces in iOS 17.4 and later," Apple said on its website, referring to the software platform that runs iPhones and iPads. 

"Users will be able to download an alternative marketplace app from the marketplace developer’s website," the company said.

Apple has also said it will appeal a $2 billion EU antitrust fine for thwarting competition from Spotify  (SPOT)  and other music streaming rivals via restrictions on the App Store.

The company's shares have suffered amid all this upheaval, but some analysts still see good things in Apple's future.

Bank of America Securities confirmed its positive stance on Apple, maintaining a buy rating with a steady price target of $225, according to Investing.com

The firm's analysis highlighted Apple's pricing strategy evolution since the introduction of the first iPhone in 2007, with initial prices set at $499 for the 4GB model and $599 for the 8GB model.

BofA said that Apple has consistently launched new iPhone models, including the Pro/Pro Max versions, to target the premium market. 

Analyst says Apple selloff 'overdone'

Concurrently, prices for previous models are typically reduced by about $100 with each new release. 

This strategy, coupled with installment plans from Apple and carriers, has contributed to the iPhone's installed base reaching a record 1.2 billion in 2023, the firm said.

More Tech Stocks:

Apple has effectively shifted its sales mix toward higher-value units despite experiencing slower unit sales, BofA said.

This trend is expected to persist and could help mitigate potential unit sales weaknesses, particularly in China. 

BofA also noted Apple's dominance in the high-end market, maintaining a market share of over 90% in the $1,000 and above price band for the past three years.

The firm also cited the anticipation of a multi-year iPhone cycle propelled by next-generation AI technology, robust services growth, and the potential for margin expansion.

On Monday, Evercore ISI analysts said they believed that the sell-off in the iPhone maker’s shares may be “overdone.”

The firm said that investors' growing preference for AI-focused stocks like Nvidia  (NVDA)  has led to a reallocation of funds away from Apple. 

In addition, Evercore said concerns over weakening demand in China, where Apple may be losing market share in the smartphone segment, have affected investor sentiment.

And then ongoing regulatory issues continue to have an impact on investor confidence in the world's second-biggest company.

“We think the sell-off is rather overdone, while we suspect there is strong valuation support at current levels to down 10%, there are three distinct drivers that could unlock upside on the stock from here – a) Cap allocation, b) AI inferencing, and c) Risk-off/defensive shift," the firm said in a research note.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Major typhoid fever surveillance study in sub-Saharan Africa indicates need for the introduction of typhoid conjugate vaccines in endemic countries

There is a high burden of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan African countries, according to a new study published today in The Lancet Global Health. This high…

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There is a high burden of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan African countries, according to a new study published today in The Lancet Global Health. This high burden combined with the threat of typhoid strains resistant to antibiotic treatment calls for stronger prevention strategies, including the use and implementation of typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs) in endemic settings along with improvements in access to safe water, sanitation, and hygiene.

Credit: IVI

There is a high burden of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan African countries, according to a new study published today in The Lancet Global Health. This high burden combined with the threat of typhoid strains resistant to antibiotic treatment calls for stronger prevention strategies, including the use and implementation of typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs) in endemic settings along with improvements in access to safe water, sanitation, and hygiene.

 

The findings from this 4-year study, the Severe Typhoid in Africa (SETA) program, offers new typhoid fever burden estimates from six countries: Burkina Faso, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Ghana, Madagascar, and Nigeria, with four countries recording more than 100 cases for every 100,000 person-years of observation, which is considered a high burden. The highest incidence of typhoid was found in DRC with 315 cases per 100,000 people while children between 2-14 years of age were shown to be at highest risk across all 25 study sites.

 

There are an estimated 12.5 to 16.3 million cases of typhoid every year with 140,000 deaths. However, with generic symptoms such as fever, fatigue, and abdominal pain, and the need for blood culture sampling to make a definitive diagnosis, it is difficult for governments to capture the true burden of typhoid in their countries.

 

“Our goal through SETA was to address these gaps in typhoid disease burden data,” said lead author Dr. Florian Marks, Deputy Director General of the International Vaccine Institute (IVI). “Our estimates indicate that introduction of TCV in endemic settings would go to lengths in protecting communities, especially school-aged children, against this potentially deadly—but preventable—disease.”

 

In addition to disease incidence, this study also showed that the emergence of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in Salmonella Typhi, the bacteria that causes typhoid fever, has led to more reliance beyond the traditional first line of antibiotic treatment. If left untreated, severe cases of the disease can lead to intestinal perforation and even death. This suggests that prevention through vaccination may play a critical role in not only protecting against typhoid fever but reducing the spread of drug-resistant strains of the bacteria.

 

There are two TCVs prequalified by the World Health Organization (WHO) and available through Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. In February 2024, IVI and SK bioscience announced that a third TCV, SKYTyphoid™, also achieved WHO PQ, paving the way for public procurement and increasing the global supply.

 

Alongside the SETA disease burden study, IVI has been working with colleagues in three African countries to show the real-world impact of TCV vaccination. These studies include a cluster-randomized trial in Agogo, Ghana and two effectiveness studies following mass vaccination in Kisantu, DRC and Imerintsiatosika, Madagascar.

 

Dr. Birkneh Tilahun Tadesse, Associate Director General at IVI and Head of the Real-World Evidence Department, explains, “Through these vaccine effectiveness studies, we aim to show the full public health value of TCV in settings that are directly impacted by a high burden of typhoid fever.” He adds, “Our final objective of course is to eliminate typhoid or to at least reduce the burden to low incidence levels, and that’s what we are attempting in Fiji with an island-wide vaccination campaign.”

 

As more countries in typhoid endemic countries, namely in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, consider TCV in national immunization programs, these data will help inform evidence-based policy decisions around typhoid prevention and control.

 

###

 

About the International Vaccine Institute (IVI)
The International Vaccine Institute (IVI) is a non-profit international organization established in 1997 at the initiative of the United Nations Development Programme with a mission to discover, develop, and deliver safe, effective, and affordable vaccines for global health.

IVI’s current portfolio includes vaccines at all stages of pre-clinical and clinical development for infectious diseases that disproportionately affect low- and middle-income countries, such as cholera, typhoid, chikungunya, shigella, salmonella, schistosomiasis, hepatitis E, HPV, COVID-19, and more. IVI developed the world’s first low-cost oral cholera vaccine, pre-qualified by the World Health Organization (WHO) and developed a new-generation typhoid conjugate vaccine that is recently pre-qualified by WHO.

IVI is headquartered in Seoul, Republic of Korea with a Europe Regional Office in Sweden, a Country Office in Austria, and Collaborating Centers in Ghana, Ethiopia, and Madagascar. 39 countries and the WHO are members of IVI, and the governments of the Republic of Korea, Sweden, India, Finland, and Thailand provide state funding. For more information, please visit https://www.ivi.int.

 

CONTACT

Aerie Em, Global Communications & Advocacy Manager
+82 2 881 1386 | aerie.em@ivi.int


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US Spent More Than Double What It Collected In February, As 2024 Deficit Is Second Highest Ever… And Debt Explodes

US Spent More Than Double What It Collected In February, As 2024 Deficit Is Second Highest Ever… And Debt Explodes

Earlier today, CNBC’s…

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US Spent More Than Double What It Collected In February, As 2024 Deficit Is Second Highest Ever... And Debt Explodes

Earlier today, CNBC's Brian Sullivan took a horse dose of Red Pills when, about six months after our readers, he learned that the US is issuing $1 trillion in debt every 100 days, which prompted him to rage tweet, (or rageX, not sure what the proper term is here) the following:

We’ve added 60% to national debt since 2018. Germany - a country with major economic woes - added ‘just’ 32%.   

Maybe it will never matter.   Maybe MMT is real.   Maybe we just cancel or inflate it out. Maybe career real estate borrowers or career politicians aren’t the answer.

I have no idea.  Only time will tell.   But it’s going to be fascinating to watch it play out.

He is right: it will be fascinating, and the latest budget deficit data simply confirmed that the day of reckoning will come very soon, certainly sooner than the two years that One River's Eric Peters predicted this weekend for the coming "US debt sustainability crisis."

According to the US Treasury, in February, the US collected $271 billion in various tax receipts, and spent $567 billion, more than double what it collected.

The two charts below show the divergence in US tax receipts which have flatlined (on a trailing 6M basis) since the covid pandemic in 2020 (with occasional stimmy-driven surges)...

... and spending which is about 50% higher compared to where it was in 2020.

The end result is that in February, the budget deficit rose to $296.3 billion, up 12.9% from a year prior, and the second highest February deficit on record.

And the punchline: on a cumulative basis, the budget deficit in fiscal 2024 which began on October 1, 2023 is now $828 billion, the second largest cumulative deficit through February on record, surpassed only by the peak covid year of 2021.

But wait there's more: because in a world where the US is spending more than twice what it is collecting, the endgame is clear: debt collapse, and while it won't be tomorrow, or the week after, it is coming... and it's also why the US is now selling $1 trillion in debt every 100 days just to keep operating (and absorbing all those millions of illegal immigrants who will keep voting democrat to preserve the socialist system of the US, so beloved by the Soros clan).

And it gets even worse, because we are now in the ponzi finance stage of the Minsky cycle, with total interest on the debt annualizing well above $1 trillion, and rising every day

... having already surpassed total US defense spending and soon to surpass total health spending and, finally all social security spending, the largest spending category of all, which means that US debt will now rise exponentially higher until the inevitable moment when the US dollar loses its reserve status and it all comes crashing down.

We conclude with another observation by CNBC's Brian Sullivan, who quotes an email by a DC strategist...

.. which lays out the proposed Biden budget as follows:

The budget deficit will growth another $16 TRILLION over next 10 years. Thats *with* the proposed massive tax hikes.

Without them the deficit will grow $19 trillion.

That's why you will hear the "deficit is being reduced by $3 trillion" over the decade.

No family budget or business could exist with this kind of math.

Of course, in the long run, neither can the US... and since neither party will ever cut the spending which everyone by now is so addicted to, the best anyone can do is start planning for the endgame.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/12/2024 - 18:40

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