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Blain: Seven Factors Likely To Roil Markets

Blain: Seven Factors Likely To Roil Markets

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

“ Reality is frequently inaccurate.”

This morning: Seven factors to understand the market shift that’s roiling markets; bond yields and inflation,..

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Blain: Seven Factors Likely To Roil Markets

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

“ Reality is frequently inaccurate.”

This morningSeven factors to understand the market shift that’s roiling markets; bond yields and inflation, distortion, recovery, leverage, tech vs reality, exuberance, value and distortion

Its undeniable there is a massive, multi-faceted shift underway in markets.

I’m sorry if this Morning’s Porridge reads in a terribly convoluted fashion… but there are all kinds of contradictory bluster occurring in markets at present. To understand why and where markets are moving, it’s probably a good idea to arm yourself with a glass of something strong, (I find a good breakfast Islay helps at this point), and let your brain try to navigate the multiple market tides and currents…

Or, you can accept its all just the way markets are… Markets tend to find ways to fix themselves – they are sort of self-regulating difference engines and will trend back to a state of perilous equilibrium every time. Bear in mind: Blain’s Market Mantra No 4: Outcomes are unlikely to be as bad as feared, but are seldom as good as hoped for.

Let me try to explain why you should not panic as the fundamental fabric of markets unravels all around us.. It’s just the way it is:  

First up is the threat of rising bond yields and inflation.

Implausibly low rates underlie the relative value thesis that’s been driving stocks: when bond yields are so low and unlikely to rise, then it makes far more sense to buy stocks. Now everyone is watching central banks like hawks to discern just how much more juice they are willing to pump into markets through QE, to keep rates artificially low – and thus stocks attractive.

Call it “yield curve control” or whatever, but without Central Banks funding government stimulus, then rates will rise dramatically triggering something akin to the taper tantrum. Bond yields around the globe are rising – the question is just how high will they go, and how much pain do they create for stocks?

At the same time, higher bond yields make bonds attractive – especially if we think central banks will act to stabilize markets by buying them.. hence dollar strength on expectations global buyers will buy higher yielding US treasuries.. the most liquid bond market.

Second is distortion.

The most significant feature of the last 12 years, since the great Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2031 began has been Distortion – Central banks and regulatory authorities attempting to make sure the last crisis doesn’t happen again by controlling markets by setting interest rates, tinkering with capital levels, putting rules in place and generally getting it wrong and mucking up the finely tuned functioning of markets at every conceivable opportunity. All these interventions have consequences, which invariably mount up creating tremendous instability – which is why markets are now poised on a repeat financial crisis – which, inevitable, the financial authorities will make worse. It is their role and the way they do things – changing the rules to avoid the last crisis while ensuring the next one..

Third is global Recovery from pandemic

As the economy recovers, the reflation threat should be less of a threat – if the global economy is recovering surely that’s great news for stocks? Sure, except for the details. Like the debt load many corporates have taken on board (largely squandered on stock buy backs). Or the possibility some countries will fail to vaccinate and prolong the global shutdown, injecting a taint of recession into the mix. A few months ago we were worried about long term deflation.. now we worry the economy is heating to fast.

While normalised interest rates would be a good thing to kick start evolutionary capitalism, where tired old companies are replaced by nimbler new ones, it will come with a massive amount of short-term market pain.

Fourth is concern on amount of Leverage behind markets.

Just how many rotten apples might a market shift uncover – exactly as happened in 2007/08 when it was the massive debt that underlie the market and had been fueling sentiment was revealed. Last week as superb article in Gavekal, Productive Bubbles and Unproductive Bubbles (which unfortunately I can’t post on the site) highlighted the leverage driving Bitcoin. One warning is Greyscale Bitcoin Trust, a fund entirely invested in Bitcoin, which has seen its NAV premium turn negative. When the premium was 27%, it was a great buy. Now its negative – painting a bulls eye on the fund. (Guess who is a massive holder of Greyscale? ARK.)

Or how about the collapse of Greensill, likely to leave Credit Suisse with a $10 bln headache, regulators a massive twisted web of lending to unravel, and a likely collapse of the Gupta empire. I’d be really, really interested to know just how deep that goes. (And if anyone is interested, it would be fun to look at the flight logs of the 4 Greensill and 2 Gupta corporate jets, to see exactly who went where to look at what, and approve the assets Lex Greensill was cosily funding for his chum.)

Fifth is the rotation out of Tech back into Reality

Tech stocks are taking at battering – leading many to conclude the ultimate rotation is underway from the “dreams and hopes” of a new economy, back towards something based on the fundamental truths of the global economy. The momentum stocks are sliding. The obvious one is Tesla – down 36% from its $900 high. Cathie Wood’s Ark Innovation fund has given up all its gains this year.

The Nasdaq has corrected 10.5% since its Feb high. Everything associated with the new economy has taken a reality check. From EV companies, Battery stocks, hydrogen hopes, and renewables. For all the promises and expectations of a clean economy, green renewable power, electric vehicles, autonomous driving, and a host of other new, new things tomorrow.. the market is now accepting these things will take time. It doesn’t mean they won’t happen – but more likely at a realistic rather than massively inflated prices.

Sixth is Exuberance

There is no shortage of articles this morning about how the SPAC boom is so over. All these blank-check firms invested in intangible wisps of ideas suddenly look busted. Quelle Surprise. Many of these stocks were inflated speculative bubbles – based on the hope smart SPAC sponsors knew what they were doing. The reality is many just reaped the fees. Like any sectors – there will be rubies in the dust when it all falls out.

Seventh is Value

There is definitely value in markets. For every dollar value that is overpriced it stands to reason there is another dollar of value underpriced. Uncovering that value isn’t as simple as re-reading Warren Buffet to recognise fundamental long-term value stocks.

You also have to contend with value distortion. For instance, I fundamentally believe in ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) based investment, yet I am watching a market totally brainwashed and besotted with the concept and applying it badly. Any firm should adhere to the principals of protecting the planet, serving customers and staff fairly and being well managed, but let’s not get all crusader like about it. Let’s be practical. Let’s punish companies that break the rules, rather than reward those that claim to follow them (ie greenwashers).

For instance: Tesla is a fail for investing in bitcoin. As is Ark. Tesla is a fail because of Elon Musk’s flawed corporate governance – which is also why the Gupta GFC Alliance is collapsing. Any betting company should be a fail for social failure. But of course, the market values profit over the S in ESG. E is an easy bandwagon to clamber on.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/09/2021 - 08:06

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Key shipping company files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy

The Illinois-based general freight trucking company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy to reorganize.

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The U.S. trucking industry has had a difficult beginning of the year for 2024 with several logistics companies filing for bankruptcy to seek either a Chapter 7 liquidation or Chapter 11 reorganization.

The Covid-19 pandemic caused a lot of supply chain issues for logistics companies and also created a shortage of truck drivers as many left the business for other occupations. Shipping companies, in the meantime, have had extreme difficulty recruiting new drivers for thousands of unfilled jobs.

Related: Tesla rival’s filing reveals Chapter 11 bankruptcy is possible

Freight forwarder company Boateng Logistics joined a growing list of shipping companies that permanently shuttered their businesses as the firm on Feb. 22 filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy with plans to liquidate.

The Carlsbad, Calif., logistics company filed its petition in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of California listing assets up to $50,000 and and $1 million to $10 million in liabilities. Court papers said it owed millions of dollars in liabilities to trucking, logistics and factoring companies. The company filed bankruptcy before any creditors could take legal action.

Lawsuits force companies to liquidate in bankruptcy

Lawsuits, however, can force companies to file bankruptcy, which was the case for J.J. & Sons Logistics of Clint, Texas, which on Jan. 22 filed for Chapter 7 liquidation in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Western District of Texas. The company filed bankruptcy four days before the scheduled start of a trial for a wrongful death lawsuit filed by the family of a former company truck driver who had died from drowning in 2016.

California-based logistics company Wise Choice Trans Corp. shut down operations and filed for Chapter 7 liquidation on Jan. 4 in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of California, listing $1 million to $10 million in assets and liabilities.

The Hayward, Calif., third-party logistics company, founded in 2009, provided final mile, less-than-truckload and full truckload services, as well as warehouse and fulfillment services in the San Francisco Bay Area.

The Chapter 7 filing also implemented an automatic stay against all legal proceedings, as the company listed its involvement in four legal actions that were ongoing or concluded. Court papers reportedly did not list amounts for damages.

In some cases, debtors don't have to take a drastic action, such as a liquidation, and can instead file a Chapter 11 reorganization.

Truck shipping products.

Shutterstock

Nationwide Cargo seeks to reorganize its business

Nationwide Cargo Inc., a general freight trucking company that also hauls fresh produce and meat, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of Illinois with plans to reorganize its business.

The East Dundee, Ill., shipping company listed $1 million to $10 million in assets and $10 million to $50 million in liabilities in its petition and said funds will not be available to pay unsecured creditors. The company operates with 183 trucks and 171 drivers, FreightWaves reported.

Nationwide Cargo's three largest secured creditors in the petition were Equify Financial LLC (owed about $3.5 million,) Commercial Credit Group (owed about $1.8 million) and Continental Bank NA (owed about $676,000.)

The shipping company reported gross revenue of about $34 million in 2022 and about $40 million in 2023.  From Jan. 1 until its petition date, the company generated $9.3 million in gross revenue.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Key shipping company files Chapter 11 bankruptcy

The Illinois-based general freight trucking company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy to reorganize.

Published

on

The U.S. trucking industry has had a difficult beginning of the year for 2024 with several logistics companies filing for bankruptcy to seek either a Chapter 7 liquidation or Chapter 11 reorganization.

The Covid-19 pandemic caused a lot of supply chain issues for logistics companies and also created a shortage of truck drivers as many left the business for other occupations. Shipping companies, in the meantime, have had extreme difficulty recruiting new drivers for thousands of unfilled jobs.

Related: Tesla rival’s filing reveals Chapter 11 bankruptcy is possible

Freight forwarder company Boateng Logistics joined a growing list of shipping companies that permanently shuttered their businesses as the firm on Feb. 22 filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy with plans to liquidate.

The Carlsbad, Calif., logistics company filed its petition in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of California listing assets up to $50,000 and and $1 million to $10 million in liabilities. Court papers said it owed millions of dollars in liabilities to trucking, logistics and factoring companies. The company filed bankruptcy before any creditors could take legal action.

Lawsuits force companies to liquidate in bankruptcy

Lawsuits, however, can force companies to file bankruptcy, which was the case for J.J. & Sons Logistics of Clint, Texas, which on Jan. 22 filed for Chapter 7 liquidation in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Western District of Texas. The company filed bankruptcy four days before the scheduled start of a trial for a wrongful death lawsuit filed by the family of a former company truck driver who had died from drowning in 2016.

California-based logistics company Wise Choice Trans Corp. shut down operations and filed for Chapter 7 liquidation on Jan. 4 in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of California, listing $1 million to $10 million in assets and liabilities.

The Hayward, Calif., third-party logistics company, founded in 2009, provided final mile, less-than-truckload and full truckload services, as well as warehouse and fulfillment services in the San Francisco Bay Area.

The Chapter 7 filing also implemented an automatic stay against all legal proceedings, as the company listed its involvement in four legal actions that were ongoing or concluded. Court papers reportedly did not list amounts for damages.

In some cases, debtors don't have to take a drastic action, such as a liquidation, and can instead file a Chapter 11 reorganization.

Truck shipping products.

Shutterstock

Nationwide Cargo seeks to reorganize its business

Nationwide Cargo Inc., a general freight trucking company that also hauls fresh produce and meat, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of Illinois with plans to reorganize its business.

The East Dundee, Ill., shipping company listed $1 million to $10 million in assets and $10 million to $50 million in liabilities in its petition and said funds will not be available to pay unsecured creditors. The company operates with 183 trucks and 171 drivers, FreightWaves reported.

Nationwide Cargo's three largest secured creditors in the petition were Equify Financial LLC (owed about $3.5 million,) Commercial Credit Group (owed about $1.8 million) and Continental Bank NA (owed about $676,000.)

The shipping company reported gross revenue of about $34 million in 2022 and about $40 million in 2023.  From Jan. 1 until its petition date, the company generated $9.3 million in gross revenue.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Tight inventory and frustrated buyers challenge agents in Virginia

With inventory a little more than half of what it was pre-pandemic, agents are struggling to find homes for clients in Virginia.

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No matter where you are in the state, real estate agents in Virginia are facing low inventory conditions that are creating frustrating scenarios for their buyers.

“I think people are getting used to the interest rates where they are now, but there is just a huge lack of inventory,” said Chelsea Newcomb, a RE/MAX Realty Specialists agent based in Charlottesville. “I have buyers that are looking, but to find a house that you love enough to pay a high price for — and to be at over a 6.5% interest rate — it’s just a little bit harder to find something.”

Newcomb said that interest rates and higher prices, which have risen by more than $100,000 since March 2020, according to data from Altos Research, have caused her clients to be pickier when selecting a home.

“When rates and prices were lower, people were more willing to compromise,” Newcomb said.

Out in Wise, Virginia, near the westernmost tip of the state, RE/MAX Cavaliers agent Brett Tiller and his clients are also struggling to find suitable properties.

“The thing that really stands out, especially compared to two years ago, is the lack of quality listings,” Tiller said. “The slightly more upscale single-family listings for move-up buyers with children looking for their forever home just aren’t coming on the market right now, and demand is still very high.”

Statewide, Virginia had a 90-day average of 8,068 active single-family listings as of March 8, 2024, down from 14,471 single-family listings in early March 2020 at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Altos Research. That represents a decrease of 44%.

Virginia-Inventory-Line-Chart-Virginia-90-day-Single-Family

In Newcomb’s base metro area of Charlottesville, there were an average of only 277 active single-family listings during the same recent 90-day period, compared to 892 at the onset of the pandemic. In Wise County, there were only 56 listings.

Due to the demand from move-up buyers in Tiller’s area, the average days on market for homes with a median price of roughly $190,000 was just 17 days as of early March 2024.

“For the right home, which is rare to find right now, we are still seeing multiple offers,” Tiller said. “The demand is the same right now as it was during the heart of the pandemic.”

According to Tiller, the tight inventory has caused homebuyers to spend up to six months searching for their new property, roughly double the time it took prior to the pandemic.

For Matt Salway in the Virginia Beach metro area, the tight inventory conditions are creating a rather hot market.

“Depending on where you are in the area, your listing could have 15 offers in two days,” the agent for Iron Valley Real Estate Hampton Roads | Virginia Beach said. “It has been crazy competition for most of Virginia Beach, and Norfolk is pretty hot too, especially for anything under $400,000.”

According to Altos Research, the Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News housing market had a seven-day average Market Action Index score of 52.44 as of March 14, making it the seventh hottest housing market in the country. Altos considers any Market Action Index score above 30 to be indicative of a seller’s market.

Virginia-Beach-Metro-Area-Market-Action-Index-Line-Chart-Virginia-Beach-Norfolk-Newport-News-VA-NC-90-day-Single-Family

Further up the coastline on the vacation destination of Chincoteague Island, Long & Foster agent Meghan O. Clarkson is also seeing a decent amount of competition despite higher prices and interest rates.

“People are taking their time to actually come see things now instead of buying site unseen, and occasionally we see some seller concessions, but the traffic and the demand is still there; you might just work a little longer with people because we don’t have anything for sale,” Clarkson said.

“I’m busy and constantly have appointments, but the underlying frenzy from the height of the pandemic has gone away, but I think it is because we have just gotten used to it.”

While much of the demand that Clarkson’s market faces is for vacation homes and from retirees looking for a scenic spot to retire, a large portion of the demand in Salway’s market comes from military personnel and civilians working under government contracts.

“We have over a dozen military bases here, plus a bunch of shipyards, so the closer you get to all of those bases, the easier it is to sell a home and the faster the sale happens,” Salway said.

Due to this, Salway said that existing-home inventory typically does not come on the market unless an employment contract ends or the owner is reassigned to a different base, which is currently contributing to the tight inventory situation in his market.

Things are a bit different for Tiller and Newcomb, who are seeing a decent number of buyers from other, more expensive parts of the state.

“One of the crazy things about Louisa and Goochland, which are kind of like suburbs on the western side of Richmond, is that they are growing like crazy,” Newcomb said. “A lot of people are coming in from Northern Virginia because they can work remotely now.”

With a Market Action Index score of 50, it is easy to see why people are leaving the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria market for the Charlottesville market, which has an index score of 41.

In addition, the 90-day average median list price in Charlottesville is $585,000 compared to $729,900 in the D.C. area, which Newcomb said is also luring many Virginia homebuyers to move further south.

Median-Price-D.C.-vs.-Charlottesville-Line-Chart-90-day-Single-Family

“They are very accustomed to higher prices, so they are super impressed with the prices we offer here in the central Virginia area,” Newcomb said.

For local buyers, Newcomb said this means they are frequently being outbid or outpriced.

“A couple who is local to the area and has been here their whole life, they are just now starting to get their mind wrapped around the fact that you can’t get a house for $200,000 anymore,” Newcomb said.

As the year heads closer to spring, triggering the start of the prime homebuying season, agents in Virginia feel optimistic about the market.

“We are seeing seasonal trends like we did up through 2019,” Clarkson said. “The market kind of soft launched around President’s Day and it is still building, but I expect it to pick right back up and be in full swing by Easter like it always used to.”

But while they are confident in demand, questions still remain about whether there will be enough inventory to support even more homebuyers entering the market.

“I have a lot of buyers starting to come off the sidelines, but in my office, I also have a lot of people who are going to list their house in the next two to three weeks now that the weather is starting to break,” Newcomb said. “I think we are going to have a good spring and summer.”

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