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Bitcoin On-Chain Data Suggests Miners Expect Halving to Pump BTC Price

Bitcoin On-Chain Data Suggests Miners Expect Halving to Pump BTC Price

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3 years ago

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Bitcoin’s price is surging right before the halving event, but will it last? On-chain data may hold the answer.

As the coronavirus pandemic continues to unfold and new signs of lockdowns beginning to be slowly lifted in Europe, all eyes in the crypto community are back on the Bitcoin (BTC) halving. The event is only 10 days away, and Bitcoin’s price seems to be acting accordingly, having surged an incredible 23% to a monthly high above $9,400 earlier this week. 

A widely celebrated event in the cryptocurrency industry, the halving is part of the Bitcoin monetary policy, in which every four years, the Bitcoin mining reward is cut in half. This means that on May 11, 6.25 BTC will be issued every 10 minutes, instead of the current 12.5 BTC. 

The upcoming halving will be the third since Bitcoin’s inception, and the event brings with it some bullish views for the asset’s value. 

According to PlanB, the creator of the much-discussed “Stock to Flow” model, the reduction in Bitcoin’s issuance rate is bound to increase BTC’s price in the long-run. Recently, the analyst said in a tweet:

“IMO #bitcoin 2020 halving will be like 2012 & 2016. As per S2F model I expect 10x price (order of magnitude, not precise) 1–2 yrs after the halving. Halving will be make-or-break for S2F model. I hope this halving will teach us more about underlying fundamentals & network effects.”

Opinions are mixed when it comes to the price action after the halving, however. Some believe it will undoubtedly bring higher prices while others believe that this factor is already accounted for in the current prices, given that it’s publicly available knowledge. Other investors disregard the importance of miners and the reward issuance, as they are convinced that speculation is the sole driver of Bitcoin’s price.

Bitcoin mining activity warrants observation

While speculation is a driving force for Bitcoin’s price when it comes to certain bullish or bearish cycles, supply and demand is always at play. Miners are extremely important when it comes to understanding Bitcoin’s price, as they’re the single suppliers of new coins in the market. 

Miners create constant sell pressure by liquidating their newly minted coins in order to pay for their electricity and hosting expenses. While traders take advantage of short-term volatility, miners ultimately “dictate” Bitcoin’s price on the supply side. 

This is, of course, not as linear as it sounds. Volatility will also dictate which miners can stay on the network, and if prices drop too low, some miners may go bust, as their operations are no longer profitable. A good example of this can be found in the infamous March price crash. 

Miners are not the only market players who create sell pressure, but the majority of volume on exchanges doesn’t represent real buy or sell pressure but, rather, short-term moves that traders buy and sell repeatedly. 

As such, miners are the only actors creating consistent sell pressure for freshly mined coins. With this in mind, it’s important to understand what miners have been doing as the halving approaches since their behavior can say a lot about what the post-halving Bitcoin price will look like. 

When miners move, markets move

By analyzing certain transaction patterns through the Bitcoin blockchain, it’s possible to extrapolate information that can complement trading strategies. For example, Joe Nemelka, a data analyst, at CryptoQuant, an on-chain data company, recently told Cointelegraph that an increase in miner inflow to exchanges can signal incoming volatility.

According to Nemelka, the percentage of miner inflows to exchanges compared to all other inflows (other exchanges, wallets, etc.) is noticeable. As shown by the chart below, one can also see some spikes above 6% in the Miner to Exchange Flow Percentage signaled a change in price trends. 

Miner to Exchange Flow Percentage

Miner to Exchange Flow Percentage. Source: CryptoQuant

Miners liquidate their Bitcoin holdings for a variety of reasons, and tracking this, alongside investor sentiment, is valuable for spotting divergences and subtle trend changes. 

For example, when exchange inflow from miners is abnormally high in a bull market, miners may be profiting and creating increased selling pressure at certain price levels where they feel it would be wise to sell at. 

Conversely, a high inflow at times when the price has been declining can signal that a large number of mining operations are capitulating — a process that can signal a change in the market as more resilient miners hold on to their BTC and decrease sell pressure afterward.

What are miners up to?

While the Miner to Exchange Flow Percentage dataset allows market participants to spot spikes in miner selling pressure, the Miner Position Index allows us to understand trends when it comes to miners holding or selling Bitcoin.

Miner Position Index

Miner Position Index. Source: CryptoQuant

The chart above shows that since January, miners have been holding Bitcoin, possibly hoping to sell it at post-halving prices. Mason Jang, the CSO of CryptoQuant, told Cointelegraph:

“MPI (Miner Position Index) highlights periods where the value of Bitcoin’s outflow by miners on a daily basis has historically been extremely high or low. MPI values above 2 indicate that most of the miners are selling Bitcoin. Also, If MPI is lower than 0, it means there is less selling pressure by miners. Therefore, it could be a good signal to buy BTC.”

Will history repeat itself?

Historically, the Bitcoin halving has been followed by a significant increase in price, which is also another point in favor of an accentuated price rise following the upcoming fork. However, history doesn’t always repeat itself, and although on-chain data may help to navigate the upcoming event, it’s worth noting that the cryptocurrency market has changed tremendously since the last Bitcoin halving in 2016. 

Data from CryptoCompare also shows that 2020 has seen daily trading volumes that are consistently 10 times larger than those in 2016. To put this in perspective, in 2016, the total daily Bitcoin volumes on spot exchanges rarely exceeded $1 billion. Fast forward to March 13, 2020, and top-tier exchanges have hit a record-breaking $21.6 billion in daily spot volume. 

Daily Total Spot Volume Year by Year

Daily Total Spot Volume Year by Year. Source: CryptoCompare

The chart above shows just how much the market has evolved compared to previous years. Considering the sky-high volumes seen in 2020 and the fact that more market participants are involved, the drop in sell pressure from miners is likely to have a drastic impact on overall Bitcoin sell pressure. This means that the upcoming halving may not translate into a massive rally in Bitcoin’s price.

What can we make of this? Although the halving has been a historically bullish event for Bitcoin, it doesn’t necessarily mean it will always be so. While on-chain data is a great tool to complement one’s trading and investment strategies, it should be looked at within the broader context. 

The market has matured tremendously since the last halving and the new participants have brought higher trading volumes and there are more transparent, accountable, and regulated venues. Furthermore, the current coronavirus pandemic has shown that conventional expectations of market behavior can change swiftly.

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Zelenskyy, Trudeau Honor Actual 3rd Reich Nazi With Standing Ovation

Zelenskyy, Trudeau Honor Actual 3rd Reich Nazi With Standing Ovation

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Ukrainian President Volodomyr…

Published

33 mins ago

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September 24, 2023

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Zelenskyy, Trudeau Honor Actual 3rd Reich Nazi With Standing Ovation

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy - who commands a battalion of neo-Nazis - honored an actual WWII Nazi with a standing ovation on Friday.

Yaroslav Hunka, 98, fought in a Third Reich military formation accused of war crimes.

On Friday, he was honored during a session of Canadian parliament in which Zelenskyy addressed the lawmakers to thank them for their support since Russia invaded Ukraine, saying that Canada has always been on "the bright side of history."

Hunka stood for standing ovation and saluted, according to Canadian television.

According to the Associated Press, Hunka "fought with the First Ukrainian Division in World War II before later immigrating to Canada," another name for the 14th Waffen Grenadier Division of the SS, the Nazi party's military wing, also known as the SS Galichina.

Related:

Formed in 1943, SS Galichina was comprised of Ukrainians from the Galicia region in the western part of the country. It was armed and trained by Hitler's Nazis and commanded by German officers. The next year, the division received a visit from SS head Heinrich Himmler, who had high praise for the unit's effectiveness at slaughtering Poles.

The SS Galichina subunits were responsible for the Huta Pieniacka massacre, in which they burned 500 to 1,000 Polish villagers alive.

One of several photos on a blog by an SS Galichina veterans’ group that shows Yaroslav Hunka, the Ukrainian immigrant honored by the Canadian Parliament during a visit by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Hunka is in the front row, middle.

In fact, during the Nuremberg Trials, the Waffen-SS was declared to be a criminal organization responsible for mass atrocities.

Following the war, thousands of SS Galichina veterans were allowed to leave Germany and resettle in the West - with around 2,000 moving to Canada. By that time, they were known as the First Ukrainian Division.

A blog by an association of its veterans, called “Combatant News” in Ukrainian, includes an autobiographical entry by a Yaroslav Hunka that says he volunteered to join the division in 1943 and several photographs of him during the war. The captions say the pictures show Hunka during SS artillery training in Munich in December 1943 and in Neuhammer (now Świętoszów), Poland, the site of Himmler’s visit. 

In posts to the blog dated 2011 and 2010, Hunka describes 1941 to 1943 as the happiest years of his life and compares the veterans of his unit, who were scattered across the world, to Jews. -Forward

So, the same leftists who called Trump supporters Nazis for years are now honoring an actual Nazi - while Germany has notably locked up several concentration camp guards in their 90s for their involvement in Nazi activities.

University of Ottawa Political Scientist Ivan Katchanovski lays it out...

Meanwhile, here's Ukraine's Azov Battalion of neo-Nazis that everyone with a Ukraine flag in their bio is supporting...

Odd, they don't look like Trump supporters.

Maybe these Nazis can shed some light? Careful, "X" thinks this is sensitive material (that might redpill people?).

Meanwhile...

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/24/2023 - 14:25

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Kerry Acknowledges Need For Nuclear Power As Climate Diplomacy Dominates New York City

Kerry Acknowledges Need For Nuclear Power As Climate Diplomacy Dominates New York City

Authored by Nathan Worcester via The Epoch Times,

While…

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33 mins ago

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September 24, 2023

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Kerry Acknowledges Need For Nuclear Power As Climate Diplomacy Dominates New York City

Authored by Nathan Worcester via The Epoch Times,

While addressing an Atlantic Council meeting on nuclear energy, U.S. Climate Envoy John Kerry made it clear he doesn't think wind and solar alone will be sufficient to meet global energy needs while achieving policy plans to rapidly scale back the use of hydrocarbons in the name of addressing climate change risks as outlined by the United Nations.

"You will have to have some component of nuclear—yet to be determined how big or where it'll go. That's going to be a market-based reaction," said Mr. Kerry, who served as a Democratic senator from Massachusetts before serving as Secretary of State under former President Barack Obama.

The 2004 Democratic candidate for president said that "most scientists will tell you" the goal of Net Zero 2050 cannot be achieved "unless we have a pot, a mixture of energy approaches."

"Clearly, we're going to need nuclear to be a part of that," he said on Monday.

Mr. Kerry's pro-nuclear remarks come as climate-related diplomacy and other climate-themed events overtake New York City.

Over the weekend, protesters demonstrated against fossil fuels in the streets of New York City, with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (D-N.Y.) among the participants.

Mr. Kerry voiced support for those demonstrators in his speech to the Atlantic Council.

In addition, the U.N. will hold its inaugural Climate Ambition Summit on Sept. 20.

A U.N. statement on the event states it "will showcase leaders who are 'first movers and doers' from government, business, finance, local authorities, and civil society who have credible actions, policies and plans to keep the 1.5°C degree goal of the Paris Agreement alive and deliver climate justice to those on the front lines of the climate crisis."

The Climate Ambition Summit comes ahead of the next annual United Nations Climate Change Conference, which will begin in late November. It's taking place in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

Even as he praised climate protesters, Mr. Kerry noted that a previous generation of environmental activists had fought hard against nuclear power, now seen as a pragmatic solution by many climate hawks.

"In my state of Massachusetts, where there was a huge fight over Seabrook Nuclear Plant in New Hampshire, we now happily get about 20 percent of all our energy from Seabrook, and nobody's complaining—maybe about the prices a little bit, because that's normal in today's world," he said.

A view of the Seabrook Nuclear Power Plant in Seabrook, N.H., on March 21, 2011. (Emmanuel Dunand/AFP via Getty Images)

"The United States is now therefore committed, based on experience and based on reality, to trying to accelerate the deployment of nuclear energy, as part of the Biden program," he added.

The diplomat, who came under fire from Republicans earlier this summer for his unwillingness to share details of his staff at a Congressional hearing, commented positively on Bill Gates' TerraPower, which plans to build the next-generation Natrium nuclear reactor in Wyoming.

He also drew attention to his recent trip to Romania, where he visited a control room simulator for a small modular reactor developed by the American firm NuScale.

Mr. Kerry took issue with the continued construction of unabated coal-fired power plants and with the existence of subsidies for fossil fuels.

An International Monetary Fund (IMF) study identified $1.3 trillion in "explicit" subsidies for fossil fuels in 2022, a stark increase from $500 billion in 2020. Such subsidies are ascribed to fossil fuel prices when they are lower than they would otherwise be if producers fully bore supply costs. The IMF authors attributed a substantial proportion of the increase to "temporary price support measures," in line with surging fossil fuel prices during that period.

Whitehouse Touts ADVANCE Act

Mr. Kerry wasn't the only high-level Democratic politician who addressed the Atlanticist forum on Monday.

In pre-recorded remarks, Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) touted the bipartisan, nuclear power-related ADVANCE Act, which passed the Senate as part of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) in July. The bill has not moved ahead in the House.

"Our legislation would strengthen the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's ability to safely and efficiently review the expected influx of applications and prepare them to license HALEU [high-assay low-enriched uranium] fuels," the lawmaker said.

Russia currently dominates the production of HALEU fuels, which are key for most next-generation nuclear reactors. Uncertainty about Russian supplies of HALEU has been a worry for TerraPower and a central motivation for the Nuclear Fuel Security Act, another successful NDAA amendment.

"We spend nearly $1 billion each year on Russian uranium. Russia uses these revenues to fund its invasion of Ukraine," Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) said in the Senate as the measure was under consideration.

Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) in Washington on Dec. 1, 2020. (Bill O'Leary-Pool/Getty Images)

'Decarbonize Beyond Electricity'

Other speakers at the event expanded on how nuclear energy could be used to cut carbon emissions.

"We need to decarbonize beyond electricity," said John Wagner, director of the Idaho National Laboratory. He cited industrial heating and hydrogen production as examples of such applications for nuclear energy.

Sama Bilbao y León, director general of the World Nuclear Association, concurred.

"Yes, we need to electrify as much as we can of our economy, but it is not going to be possible to electrify everything," she said.

Ben Pickett of Nucor Corporation, which operates mills that recycle scrap steel using electric arc furnaces, explained that his company's operations require "billions and billions of kilowatt hours per year."

Earlier this year, Nucor signed a memorandum of understanding with NuScale Power. The latter could potentially develop small modular reactors for use in conjunction with Nucor's steel production facilities.

"We've got customers now that are demanding much cleaner steels," Mr. Pickett said.

He conceded that the idea of running steel production on advanced nuclear has met with a "mixed" reaction in his industry.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/24/2023 - 15:00

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Zelenskyy Asks Spirit Cooker Marina Abramovic To Be Ambassador For Ukraine, Help ‘Rebuild Schools’

Zelenskyy Asks Spirit Cooker Marina Abramovic To Be Ambassador For Ukraine, Help ‘Rebuild Schools’

Authored by Chris Menahan via Information…

Published

33 mins ago

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September 24, 2023

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Zelenskyy Asks Spirit Cooker Marina Abramovic To Be Ambassador For Ukraine, Help 'Rebuild Schools'

Authored by Chris Menahan via Information Liberation (emphasis ours),

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky is recruiting spirit cooker Marina Abramovic to serve as an ambassador for Ukraine and help "rebuild schools."

From The Telegraph, "Zelensky asks Marina Abramovic to be ambassador for Ukraine":

Volodymyr Zelensky has asked Marina Abramovic, the performance artist, to be an ambassador for Ukraine.

‌Ms Abramovic, a fierce critic of Vladimir Putin's illegal invasion, said the Ukrainian president had asked for her help in rebuilding schools.

[...] ‌"I have been invited by Zelensky to be an ambassador of Ukraine, to help the children affected by rebuilding schools and such."

‌She added: "I have also been invited to be a board member of the Babyn Yar organisation to continue to protect the memorial."

‌The Holocaust memorial centre to Jews murdered by Nazis in Ukraine was damaged by Russian missile attacks in March last year.

The "bombing" of the Babyn Yar memorial was confirmed to be a lie last year.

‌Ms Abramovic installed her work Crystal Wall of Crying at the memorial centre in Kyiv four months before Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

‌The wall, 40 metres long and three metres high, is made of coal and has large quartz crystals sticking out of it. Visitors can touch the installation, which mirrors the western wall in Jerusalem.

Zelensky said last year his goal is to turn Ukraine into a "Greater Israel."

In Dec 2022, Zelensky made a deal with BlackRock's Larry Fink to help "rebuild" Ukraine after the war and just last week the Biden regime announced Penny Pritzker would become their Special Representative for "rebuilding" Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Abramovic's pals, the Clintons, are also salivating over helping to 'rebuild' Ukraine.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/24/2023 - 16:10

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