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Bitcoin may behave more like US Treasury bonds: Bloomberg Intelligence

Bitcoin markets will behave more like that of Treasury bonds and gold during market recovery, said the analysts.
The latest crypto…

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Bitcoin markets will behave more like that of Treasury bonds and gold during market recovery, said the analysts.

The latest crypto market research from Bloomberg Intelligence suggests that Bitcoin may start to behave more like United States (U.S.) Treasury bonds and gold, rather than stocks.

In its August Crypto Outlook report, penned by Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone and Senior Market Structure Analyst Jamie Coutts, the research unit compared Bitcoin markets to those of gold, bonds, and oil.

The authors suggested that macroeconomic influences such as the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies have resulted in similarities in Treasury bond markets and Bitcoin:

“Tightening markets and plunging global growth support the Federal Reserve's shift to a "meeting by meeting" bias in July, which may help pivot Bitcoin toward a directional tilt more like US Treasury bonds than stocks.”

They also added that a “dump-following-pump nature of commodities” and receding bond yields suggest an increase in the probability of bonds, gold, and Bitcoin being buoyed as inflation decreases.

Treasury bonds, often called T-Bonds, are long-term government debt securities issued by the U.S. Treasury Department. They have a fixed rate of return and maturity periods ranging from 20 to 30 years.

The report noted that crypto markets reached their greatest-ever discount compared to the 100-week moving average in July. It added that it is “abnormal for Bitcoin to hold much below its 200-week moving average.” BTC is currently trading up 1.2% on the day at $23,1502, having just reclaimed the 200-week moving average, which lies at $22,827.

The analysts said that the fact that BTC was 70% below its peak at the start of August but still five times higher than its March 2020 low “shows its potential.”

They flagged the $20,000 zone as key support and that they expect a base is building, similar to the $5,000 level in 2018-19.

Related: Bitcoin bulls aim for $25K price on Friday's $510M options expiry

The researchers concluded that Bitcoin had been one of the best-performing assets since its inception about a decade ago, adding:

“We think more of the same is ahead, particularly as it may be transitioning toward global collateral, with results more aligned with Treasury bonds or gold.”

Coinbase research carried out in July indicates that the risk profile of the crypto asset class is similar to that of oil and tech stocks. According to Coinbase chief economist Cesare Fracassi, “the correlation between the stock and crypto-asset prices has risen significantly” since the 2020 pandemic.

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Equal-weight Semis Break Down – Is SOXX Next? – with video (Free)

Today’s report will compare charts and performance for the Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) and the Semiconductor SPDR (XSD). SOXX represents large-caps and is…

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Today's report will compare charts and performance for the Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) and the Semiconductor SPDR (XSD). SOXX represents large-caps and is holding up. XSD represents the average semiconductor stock and it is not holding up. Broad weakness within the semiconductor group is likely to spread to large-cap semiconductor stocks and SOXX. Note that we will cover this and more in tomorrow's Chart Trader Report & Video.

Equal-weight Semis Break Down - Is SOXX Next?

The first chart shows SOXX peaking in late July and trending lower the last few months (red dashed line). SOXX remains above its 200-day SMA and the Trend Composite remains positive, but a bear flag formed here in October (blue lines). Flags are short-term continuation patterns. The prior move (September) was down so this flag is bearish. A flag break would signal a continuation lower and target a move to the next support zone in the 400 area.

The second chart shows a completely different picture. The Semiconductor SPDR (XSD), which represents the average semiconductor stock, is in a downtrend and underperforming. XSD is below its 200-day SMA and its Trend Composite is negative. The lower window shows the price-relative (XSD:SPY Ratio) below its 200-day SMA since mid August. This means XSD is underperforming SPY. Short-term, XSD broke flag support on Friday and this targets a move to the next support zone in the 175 area.

Large-caps semis (SOXX) are holding up for now, but relative and absolute weakness in the average semi (XSD) is a concern. I expect this broad weakness to extend to large-cap semis (SOXX). By extension, this would be negative for the tech sector, QQQ and the broader market (SPY).

Tomorrow at Chart Trader we will cover broadening weakness within the stock market, a handful of leading groups and some bearish chart setups (stocks). Chart Trader reports and videos are published every Tuesday and Thursday. Click here for immediate access.   

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Bitcoin surges in digital asset inflows as Europe outpaces the US

According to CoinShare’s Digital Asset Fund Flows weekly report by analyst James Butterfill, digital asset investment products have seen net inflows…

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According to CoinShare’s Digital Asset Fund Flows weekly report by analyst James Butterfill, digital asset investment products have seen net inflows for the third consecutive week totaling $15 million, despite a trading volume drop of 27% below the 2023 average. An indication of improving investor sentiment, this upward trend is marked by the continued dominance of Bitcoin, which registered $16 million in weekly inflows for the period.

The report also highlighted the contrast in regional performance. Although the US saw minimal inflows of $2.1 million, Europe experienced total net inflows totaling $9.6 million last week, with Sweden being the only country to report outflows.

Weekly ETP inflows (Source: CoinShares, Bloomberg)

Bitcoin’s year-to-date inflows have reached a noteworthy $260 million, affirming its market dominance, with net inflows of $194 million.  This performance is notable, especially considering that the report’s data, captured as of last Friday, was unlikely to consider the potential positive impact of the U.S. SEC not appealing the Grayscale legal challenge. This decision could pave the way for a spot-based ETF in the U.S.

Ethereum, despite the recent launch of a futures-based ETF, saw a decreased investor appetite with outflows of $7.5m last week, effectively correcting much of the inflows seen the prior week. The report suggests that this may reflect ongoing protocol design concerns within the Ethereum network.

While Bitcoin continues to command significant investor interest, the fluctuating dynamics within the altcoin market and diverging regional trends paint a complex picture of the current digital asset investment landscape.

CoinShares full report is available weekly.

The post Bitcoin surges in digital asset inflows as Europe outpaces the US appeared first on CryptoSlate.

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Bitcoin Amsterdam: Focus on BTC fundamentals, says Edward Snowden

Prominent Bitcoiners and contemporary adopters highlight the need to focus on the fundamental value proposition of Bitcoin to continue its push to mainstream…

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Prominent Bitcoiners and contemporary adopters highlight the need to focus on the fundamental value proposition of Bitcoin to continue its push to mainstream acceptance.

“We’re contorting ourselves to pass through the keyhole of tyranny.” Edward Snowden’s words to the audience at the packed Genesis Stage hall at Bitcoin Amsterdam stressed the preeminent cryptocurrency’s ever-increasing importance in a world beset by creeping government surveillance, devaluing fiat currencies and restrictive policies.

The renowned whistleblower’s address summed up a recurring theme during the conference, driving home the role of decentralized protocols like Bitcoin and Nostr in giving individuals some control over their wealth and privacy.

Cointelegraph spoke to prominent Bitcoin developers, investors, builders and supporters attending the two-day conference at the picturesque Westerpark neighborhood in Amsterdam. Amid the ongoing cryptocurrency bear market, the event attracted a couple of thousand attendees searching for the latest news and insights in the Bitcoin (BTC) industry.

Snowden delivers a live virtual address during the conference. Source: Cointelegraph

While many prominent figures highlighted the value proposition of Bitcoin as a store of value against the diminishing purchasing power of fiat currencies, Snowden was critical of the continual focus on the value of BTC over its importance as a decentralized tool:

“We are all part of a bigger game, and Bitcoin is one of the strongest levers in that. The systems that we are influencing, that we are exerting leverage on, [such as] payments and finance, will shape what the world of tomorrow looks like.“

Snowden’s address arguably attracted the biggest gathering of visitors during the conference, as he revisited Bitcoin’s role in his journey rebelling against the United States government and its wanton surveillance of citizens.

In 2013, Snowden used Bitcoin to pay for the servers that hosted classified information sent to journalists that would reveal the National Security Agency’s overreach into the lives of American citizens. As Snowden elaborated, Bitcoin’s growing prominence has led to increasing opposition from governments, lawmakers and legacy financial institutions.

“We don’t want to focus on things like ETFs [exchange-traded funds]; we need to focus on the fundamentals.”

Snowden added that the potential influence of Bitcoin ETFs on the value of the cryptocurrency represents “subordination, a kind of subjugation, a process of taming” that is being played out by institutions that regulate traditional financial spheres.

Snowden also shared his belief that Bitcoin has “a privacy problem,” highlighting the emergence of obfuscation tools like CoinJoin and mixers as important but equally indicative of the pressure facing the decentralized protocol.

“Acting in secret is not freedom. The necessity of CoinJoins and so on — that is because you are unfree. Proof of funds is proof of unfreedom.”

Snowden said that society needs to stop asking for permission by continuing to innovate with the creation of decentralized tools that do not heed the powers that be, referring to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s actions against the wider cryptocurrency space in 2023 as a prime example of the control that currently exists:

“All of the people tracking price and looking at headlines involving the SEC, Gary Gensler is not daddy Bitcoin, I don’t really care what he thinks, and I don’t think you should either.“

The whistleblower also tipped his hat to the creation of Nostr, which he described as powerful in conceptualizing the integration of free speech and free trade. The creators of Nostr would later unpack the genesis of the platform at the conference, which also drew a significant crowd.

Magazine: ‘Elegant and ass-backward’: Jameson Lopp’s first impression of Bitcoin

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