Uncategorized
Bitcoin Is The Solution To The World’s Trade Problems
Global trade needs to be built on an incorruptible standard that has no political or nationalistic affiliation.
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Global trade needs to be built on an incorruptible standard that has no political or nationalistic affiliation.
This is an opinion editorial by Heritage Falodun, a Bitcoin analyst and computer scientist based in Nigeria.
I believe humanity deserves a detailed elucidation of the aggravating concerns facing our economies today. Solutions to world trade problems won’t suffice if engaging in transnational commerce, promoting social progress, multilateralism, influencing bilateral exposure and enabling bottom-up prosperity isn’t of the utmost importance to human existence.
The liberty to implement and foster free, fast and unbiased trades on an individual, community, province and nation-state capacity in a seamless approach irrespective of the entities involved will be the first step towards achieving a global, friendly, effective and competitive trading mechanism.
This is all bearing in mind that the liberating innovation capable of solving and breaking world trade barriers cannot be anything short of a solution enabling instant and transparent cross-border transactions. This will fuel freedom from oppressive restrictions imposed by authorities on people’s way of life, behavior and economic prowess within the world marketplace. Ease around building long lasting importing and exporting rails is better achieved by materializing free and fully decentralized trading technologies and tools against protectionism. We live under an archaic and centralized trade policy, particularly known for hurting the people it’s intended to protect, by slowing down economic growth and increasing inflation on a global scale. This is an issue that became even more evident post-COVID-19 prior to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and of course more so now.
The traction being displayed in the international trading system has been accumulating over decades reflecting the actions, policies and posturing of different world unions. Many people are concerned that not everyone is playing by the agreed multilateral rules. High levels of state support and protection remain in key sectors, while new multilateral rule-making is not keeping pace with the business realities of today. These are just but a few problems facing today’s economy.
The question before us is, “How do we address and solve these trade barriers created, planned, organized and backed by human errors masquerading as governing rules?”
We actively need to reclassify economies and enable integration of a monetary structure free of flaws and human incompetence. There’s never been a better time for positive transmogrification towards the globalization of trade and transaction techniques than now. Emphasizing the education of what money was, what money is and what money should be is imperative, as it’s the cornerstone upholding all trading activity. The more impeccable money becomes, the more seamless it is to achieve a sustainable economy accompanied with an unerring trading mechanism. Money has taken many structures throughout human history. Gold and cowrie shells served as money in the 14th century but couldn’t meet up with all the characteristics and functions of what money should be. Gold and cowrie shells were scarce but the supply capitalization was not limited while the ease-of-use feature wasn’t achievable because of the weight of these commodities. More gold and shells were easily discoverable which in turn leads to a level of market saturation.
As a way of correcting and solving demerits of these previous commodities known as money. Money was developed and transmogrified into gold coins, fiat notes, bank accounts’ value and credit cards. Sounds interesting and innovative right ? Feeding your curiosity, this improvement has been able to get rid of some of the previous problems such as ease of use, but they haven’t been able to address the unlimited supply problem. The unchecked and consistent production of money(fiat) remains persistent as everyone hangs in the air of trust with third parties called banks. Not surprisingly, banks remain subject to federal regulations. Pathetically, this new form of money serves as a gateway to new trading problems. Some examples of these are the “non-uniformity of money,” long settlement procedures and strict regulations amidst under-collateralization in some jurisdictions.
These problems remain evident and glaring after the transition of money to fiat, hence the need to cushion the effects. Some of the approach of addressing that setback despite the acclaimed optimization of money for easy use necessitated the existing monetary body known as the “Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication,” or SWIFT. SWIFT addresses a portion of this problem by facilitating cross-border money transfers in a way that can be classified as quick in a structured messaging manner, but not exactly instantaneous as transactions should be.
That incomplete solution also brings considerations of keeping in line with the centralized economic regulations governing each jurisdiction. Principally, the blatant refusal of the World Economic Forum (WEF) to enable the decentralization of money is masterminded by greed. I disagree it’s due to the experts’ inability to understand the concept of decentralizing money and democratizing trades. The WEF refusal is an economic concept guided with full focus to sustain governments’ power-drunk addictions — by spicing trade and investments with local currency barriers to slow the flow of products and services between nations.
Some of the consequences of the fragmented global economy and central banks’ autonomy towards consistent and increasing supply of local currencies is indelible and evident in our society:
- Declines in wages and currencies purchasing power in both high- and low-income economies.
- Facing the trade-offs between the risk of debt crisis and the securing of food and fuel in countries with developing economies.
- Worsening food insecurity over time– especially in the Middle East, North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.
- The highest inflation rates in history affecting numerous countries not excluding the world trade powers in each continent.
Permit me to ask “Can the root cause of these challenges be tackled in order to revolutionize the contexts of money for fostering global trades without blemish?”
Quick response — yes it can, let money be money and all trade problems will become obsolete.
To solve the trade problems, considering the root cause is attached to all these previous incompetent monies, a monetary innovation called Bitcoin was created to address the flaws of the present day. A lot of the features it possesses such as its limited supply, immutability, transparency, ease of use, censorship resistance, divisibility, fungibility and portability. The juicy and most efficient part of it is its ability to get rid of trust through a decentralized peer-to-peer trading mechanism backed by mathematical computations rather than physical properties like gold or cowrie shells. The characteristics of sound money are durability, portability, divisibility, uniformity, limited supply and acceptability. Bitcoin possesses all. I noticed “Satoshi knew better,” when he created Bitcoin in 2009 as sound money in response to the 2008 financial crisis. Trades should be carried out with money which the corrupt can’t abuse or influence. Global and local trades should be done with money that has its purchasing power determined by markets, independent of governments and political parties. Satoshi Nakamoto said, “The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust.” Truth be told, the ball is now in every individual's court to determine and accept this innovation as a solution to the long existing trade problems.
I had the pleasure of interviewing Nikolai Tjongarero also known as “Okin,” who is a business mogul and bitcoin advocate in Namibia. I wanted to find out, despite the central bank of Namibia’s public declaration of Bitcoin as an acceptable payment option, does the government implement policies to enable it as an official currency for importing and exporting purposes? He said “No.” After a long brainstorming session, I concluded that policy makers in countries that have not yet moved away from import-substitution policies and direct governmental controls should implement structural adjustments rapidly in order to restore their growth, foster quick trades and resume creditworthiness. These countries can grow by amending bitcoin into policy, achieving open and free trade by utilizing and adopting global currency as its medium of exchange, unit of account and store of value. Bitcoin is the global money for an interconnected world. Utilizing and adopting money that doesn’t care about religion, country, race or creed is the first step towards solving trade bias. Interestingly, the only method towards the madness of this content is to understand, digest and implement the message rather than tackling the messenger.
This is a guest post by Heritage Falodun. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
bitcoin btc covid-19 currencies commodities gold
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US Job Openings Unexpectedly Soar Above Highest Estimate Even As Number Of Quits Tumble
US Job Openings Unexpectedly Soar Above Highest Estimate Even As Number Of Quits Tumble
For those following the recent sharp drop in job openings,…
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For those following the recent sharp drop in job openings, or perhaps merely fascinated by the narrative that AI will cause a margin-busting corporate revolution as millions of mid-level employees are replaced by a cheap "bullshitting" AI algorithm, then today's latest bizarro JOLTS report will come as a shock. That's because after three months of sharp declines, the BLS reported that in April the number of job openings soared by 358K from an upward revised 9.7 million to 10.1 million, the biggest increase since Dec 2022...
.... and printing not only above the median consensus which expected the trend to continue with 9.4 million job openings this month, but came higher than the highest Wall Street estimate! As shown in the chart below, the delta to median consensus print was a whopping 703K.
According to the BLS, the biggest increase in job openings was in retail trade (+209,000); health care and social assistance (+185,000); and transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+154,000)
The sudden, bizarre reversal in the job openings trend, meant that after falling to the lowest level since Sept 2021, in April the number of job openings was 4.446 million more than the number of unemployed workers, the highest since January.
Said otherwise, after dropping to just 1.64 job openings for every unemployed worker, the lowest since Nov 2021, in April there were 1.79 openings for every worker, a sharp spike back to levels that the Fed does not want to see.
To be sure, none of the above data are credible for reasons we have discussed before but the simplest one is because the response rate of the JOLTS survey is stuck at a record low 31%. Which means that only those who actually have job openings to report do so, while two-thirds of employers are either non-responsive or their mail is quietly lost in the mail.
Another reason why today's data is meaningless is that even as employers allegedly put up many more job wanted signs, the number of workers actually quitting their jobs - a proxy for those who believe they can get a better-paying job elsewhere, and thus strength of the overall job market - tumbled by 129K to 3.8 million, the lowest number since May 2021.
Even the Fed's WSJ mouthpiece Nick Timiraos ignored the stellar headline print, and instead focused on the plunge in quits, writing that the "rate of workers who are voluntarily leaving their jobs (including leisure and hospitality) is returning closer to pre-pandemic levels, a possible sign of less tight labor markets. Quits tend to rise when workers think they can receive better pay by changing jobs."
The rate of workers who are voluntarily leaving their jobs (including leisure and hospitality) is returning closer to pre-pandemic levels, a possible sign of less tight labor markets
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) May 31, 2023
Quits tend to rise when workers think they can receive better pay by changing jobs. pic.twitter.com/hAEAMy1I81
And the biggest paradox: as pointed out by Peter Tchir of Academy Securities, the seasonally adjusted JOLTS quits rate was 2.4 (we reached a "peak" of 2.4 in July 2019), while the Hires rate (also seasonally adjusted) was 3.9% just like it was 3.9 in July 2019. So allegedly there are 3,000,000 more jobs available now than then.
So what to make of this bizarro, conflicting report?
Well, after three months of drops in job openings, at a time when it is especially critical for Biden to still maintain the illusion that at least the labor market remains strong when everything else in the senile president's economy is crashing and burning, it appears that the BLS got a tap on the shoulder once again, especially when considering that the one category that will be most impacted by ChatGPT and which according to Indeed is seeing a collapse in job postings was also the one category that had the highest number of job openings.
Uncategorized
The U.S. Office Sector: Further Disruption and Rightsizing May Give Way to a Golden Age
The NAIOP Research Foundation, as part of its Industry Trends meeting, recently hosted a panel discussion on what’s next for the office sector. The panelists…
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The NAIOP Research Foundation, as part of its Industry Trends meeting, recently hosted a panel discussion on what’s next for the office sector. Analysts from leading service firms joined NAIOP Research Foundation Governors and office developers Greg Fuller, president and COO, Granite Properties and Paul Ciminelli, president and CEO, Ciminelli Development, to discuss problems and potential opportunities. The panelists agreed that the sector will undergo a shakeout that will include transformation, streamlining, new approaches to work and holistic solutions.
A “Broken” Market
Remote work and economic headwinds have created a negative demand shock in the office sector and a temporarily “broken” market that has not yet reached stability. Before the pandemic, office workspaces were densifying, with less square footage assigned per employee. Remote work and downsizing accelerated this trend, with tenants now needing less space per employee. Although office-using employment has rebounded from the brief pandemic-induced recession, office space demand has declined sharply. Phil Mobley, national director of office analytics at CoStar, estimated that the gap between office-using employment and previously expected demand could be as much as 400 million square feet. As supply continues to come online, vacancy rates will continue to climb over the next three years with negative absorption levels higher than during the Great Financial Recession.
According to Mobley, sublease availability is a key indicator of the market’s health, and it has more than doubled since 2019 and continues to rise. While transactions have slowed down, the ones that have taken place in the last two years have been at lower price points, but with strong fundamentals such as lower cap rates, which gives the impression of positive price growth. However, this masks some of the underlying problems that will inevitably come to light during loan maturities and price discoveries. The Mortgage Bankers Association reports that over 40 percent of office loans are maturing in the next 20 months.
The Hardest-hit Buildings
Not all markets, nor all types of office buildings are experiencing dramatic setbacks. CBRE’s Global Head of Occupier Thought Leadership, Julie Whelan, and her team conducted a study to identify the buildings that saw the most significant increase in vacancies. Their research revealed that smaller buildings (between 100,000-300,000 square feet) constructed between 1980 and 2009, located primarily in downtown areas with limited surrounding amenities and/or in high crime areas, were the most affected. Furthermore, the study found that only 10% of the buildings in the 64 markets examined accounted for 80% of the vacancies from Q1 2020 to Q1 2023.
During the pandemic, the vacancy rates of buildings in downtown markets have surpassed those of suburban areas. Specifically, 41% of buildings with the highest vacancy rates are in downtown markets, mainly in the Pacific Northwest and Northeastern regions of the United States. For instance, San Francisco’s vacancy rate has surged from 4% before the pandemic to almost 30% due to its reliance on the tech sector. Additionally, buildings located in high-crime areas (usually downtowns) and those with fewer adjacent amenities (usually suburbs) are struggling to retain tenants. However, there are opportunities to reposition or reinvent these properties, but they will require innovative public-private partnerships and community-based approaches. What surrounds office buildings, such as safe and walkable mixed-use communities, is just as crucial as what is inside them, according to Whelan.
Back to the (New) Office
The shift to remote and hybrid work has had a significant impact on office space demand. However, many companies are realizing that returning to the office more often offers advantages. While some employers have opted for 100% remote, hybrid, or office-centric policies, Lauren Hasson, the vice president of workplace strategy at JLL, has noticed a growing number of companies that want their employees back in the office at least three days a week. Studies have shown that it is difficult to engage and mentor employees who are not physically present. Furthermore, there has been a decrease in innovation, as evidenced by a decline in patent applications. Remote job postings have decreased, but employee demand for remote work remains high. Remote job listings on LinkedIn reached their peak in early 2022 at around 20% before recently falling to 12%. However, over 50% of job applications submitted are for remote positions, indicating that many job seekers may need to accept hybrid or in-person jobs. Markets with higher costs of living, intense talent competition, and long commutes, such as Boston, San Francisco, and New York, tend to advertise a higher percentage of remote positions and have slower rates of return to the office.
Hasson has reported that companies that require employees to work in the office only one or two days a week have the highest turnover rates. Thus, companies that offer either full-time remote or full-time in-office work have a better chance of retaining their talent. However, tenants that require in-person work are offering more amenities, and flexibility while creating C-suite positions such as “Chief Workplace Experience Officer” to ensure employee satisfaction and engagement. Hasson believes that enhanced office workspace will become the ultimate recruiting tool, similar to how prospective students consider a university’s athletic facilities and campus environment. According to Hasson, the new experiential office environment, which will be fueled by innovation, creativity, employee diversity, and cutting-edge technology, will recalibrate the sector and ultimately usher in a “golden age” of work.
Developers’ Perspectives
According to Ciminelli and Fuller, the office market is going through both cyclical and structural changes. While some office properties are flourishing, others lack the necessary amenities and locations to attract employees. Fuller noted that pre-pandemic, office buildings were rarely completely occupied, with a strong occupancy rate of 72%. Currently, occupancy rates vary between 40 and 65%.
Certain buildings are structurally obsolete or not ideal for conversion, particularly when considering residential use. In some cases, it may not be feasible to convert due to the property’s floorplan or location. Furthermore, the costs associated with redevelopment have risen considerably, making it necessary to acquire properties at lower costs.
Despite the challenges ahead, Fuller and Ciminelli anticipate opportunities once the dust settles. The office market will gradually reach an equilibrium as employees return to work, albeit with more flexibility and discipline in office space utilization. Like the retail sector, the office market will undergo a rightsizing process, ultimately emerging more streamlined and beneficial for both employees and employers.
recession pandemicUncategorized
April JOLTS report noisily shows continued deceleration
– by New Deal democratIt is always a bad idea simply to project a current trend forward, especially with data series that are noisy and heavily revised….
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- by New Deal democrat
It is always a bad idea simply to project a current trend forward, especially with data series that are noisy and heavily revised. That was certainly on display with the April JOLTS report.
For the last several years, the jobs market has been a game of “reverse musical chairs,” where there are always more chairs than participants. Those employers whose chairs weren’t filled had to increase their wage and/or benefits offerings, or go without. This was good for labor, but certainly put pressure on prices as well.
Last month, there were steep declines in job openings and hires also declined significantly. This morning’s report reversed some of those dynamics, while the overall trend of deceleration remained intact.
Here is the longer term view of all 3 metrics from the series inception, better to show the current situation with the historical one before the pandemic hit:
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