Connect with us

Uncategorized

Bitcoin Is The Solution To The World’s Trade Problems

Global trade needs to be built on an incorruptible standard that has no political or nationalistic affiliation.

Published

on

Global trade needs to be built on an incorruptible standard that has no political or nationalistic affiliation.

This is an opinion editorial by Heritage Falodun, a Bitcoin analyst and computer scientist based in Nigeria.

I believe humanity deserves a detailed elucidation of the aggravating concerns facing our economies today. Solutions to world trade problems won’t suffice if engaging in transnational commerce, promoting social progress, multilateralism, influencing bilateral exposure and enabling bottom-up prosperity isn’t of the utmost importance to human existence.

The liberty to implement and foster free, fast and unbiased trades on an individual, community, province and nation-state capacity in a seamless approach irrespective of the entities involved will be the first step towards achieving a global, friendly, effective and competitive trading mechanism.

This is all bearing in mind that the liberating innovation capable of solving and breaking world trade barriers cannot be anything short of a solution enabling instant and transparent cross-border transactions. This will fuel freedom from oppressive restrictions imposed by authorities on people’s way of life, behavior and economic prowess within the world marketplace. Ease around building long lasting importing and exporting rails is better achieved by materializing free and fully decentralized trading technologies and tools against protectionism. We live under an archaic and centralized trade policy, particularly known for hurting the people it’s intended to protect, by slowing down economic growth and increasing inflation on a global scale. This is an issue that became even more evident post-COVID-19 prior to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and of course more so now.

The traction being displayed in the international trading system has been accumulating over decades reflecting the actions, policies and posturing of different world unions. Many people are concerned that not everyone is playing by the agreed multilateral rules. High levels of state support and protection remain in key sectors, while new multilateral rule-making is not keeping pace with the business realities of today. These are just but a few problems facing today’s economy.

The question before us is, “How do we address and solve these trade barriers created, planned, organized and backed by human errors masquerading as governing rules?”

We actively need to reclassify economies and enable integration of a monetary structure free of flaws and human incompetence. There’s never been a better time for positive transmogrification towards the globalization of trade and transaction techniques than now. Emphasizing the education of what money was, what money is and what money should be is imperative, as it’s the cornerstone upholding all trading activity. The more impeccable money becomes, the more seamless it is to achieve a sustainable economy accompanied with an unerring trading mechanism. Money has taken many structures throughout human history. Gold and cowrie shells served as money in the 14th century but couldn’t meet up with all the characteristics and functions of what money should be. Gold and cowrie shells were scarce but the supply capitalization was not limited while the ease-of-use feature wasn’t achievable because of the weight of these commodities. More gold and shells were easily discoverable which in turn leads to a level of market saturation.

Image source

As a way of correcting and solving demerits of these previous commodities known as money. Money was developed and transmogrified into gold coins, fiat notes, bank accounts’ value and credit cards. Sounds interesting and innovative right ? Feeding your curiosity, this improvement has been able to get rid of some of the previous problems such as ease of use, but they haven’t been able to address the unlimited supply problem. The unchecked and consistent production of money(fiat) remains persistent as everyone hangs in the air of trust with third parties called banks. Not surprisingly, banks remain subject to federal regulations. Pathetically, this new form of money serves as a gateway to new trading problems. Some examples of these are the “non-uniformity of money,” long settlement procedures and strict regulations amidst under-collateralization in some jurisdictions.

These problems remain evident and glaring after the transition of money to fiat, hence the need to cushion the effects. Some of the approach of addressing that setback despite the acclaimed optimization of money for easy use necessitated the existing monetary body known as the “Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication,” or SWIFT. SWIFT addresses a portion of this problem by facilitating cross-border money transfers in a way that can be classified as quick in a structured messaging manner, but not exactly instantaneous as transactions should be.

That incomplete solution also brings considerations of keeping in line with the centralized economic regulations governing each jurisdiction. Principally, the blatant refusal of the World Economic Forum (WEF) to enable the decentralization of money is masterminded by greed. I disagree it’s due to the experts’ inability to understand the concept of decentralizing money and democratizing trades. The WEF refusal is an economic concept guided with full focus to sustain governments’ power-drunk addictions — by spicing trade and investments with local currency barriers to slow the flow of products and services between nations.

Some of the consequences of the fragmented global economy and central banks’ autonomy towards consistent and increasing supply of local currencies is indelible and evident in our society:

  • Declines in wages and currencies purchasing power in both high- and low-income economies.
  • Facing the trade-offs between the risk of debt crisis and the securing of food and fuel in countries with developing economies.
  • Worsening food insecurity over time– especially in the Middle East, North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.
  • The highest inflation rates in history affecting numerous countries not excluding the world trade powers in each continent.

Permit me to ask “Can the root cause of these challenges be tackled in order to revolutionize the contexts of money for fostering global trades without blemish?”

Quick response — yes it can, let money be money and all trade problems will become obsolete.

To solve the trade problems, considering the root cause is attached to all these previous incompetent monies, a monetary innovation called Bitcoin was created to address the flaws of the present day. A lot of the features it possesses such as its limited supply, immutability, transparency, ease of use, censorship resistance, divisibility, fungibility and portability. The juicy and most efficient part of it is its ability to get rid of trust through a decentralized peer-to-peer trading mechanism backed by mathematical computations rather than physical properties like gold or cowrie shells. The characteristics of sound money are durability, portability, divisibility, uniformity, limited supply and acceptability. Bitcoin possesses all. I noticed “Satoshi knew better,” when he created Bitcoin in 2009 as sound money in response to the 2008 financial crisis. Trades should be carried out with money which the corrupt can’t abuse or influence. Global and local trades should be done with money that has its purchasing power determined by markets, independent of governments and political parties. Satoshi Nakamoto said, “The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust.” Truth be told, the ball is now in every individual's court to determine and accept this innovation as a solution to the long existing trade problems.

I had the pleasure of interviewing Nikolai Tjongarero also known as “Okin,” who is a business mogul and bitcoin advocate in Namibia. I wanted to find out, despite the central bank of Namibia’s public declaration of Bitcoin as an acceptable payment option, does the government implement policies to enable it as an official currency for importing and exporting purposes? He said “No.” After a long brainstorming session, I concluded that policy makers in countries that have not yet moved away from import-substitution policies and direct governmental controls should implement structural adjustments rapidly in order to restore their growth, foster quick trades and resume creditworthiness. These countries can grow by amending bitcoin into policy, achieving open and free trade by utilizing and adopting global currency as its medium of exchange, unit of account and store of value. Bitcoin is the global money for an interconnected world. Utilizing and adopting money that doesn’t care about religion, country, race or creed is the first step towards solving trade bias. Interestingly, the only method towards the madness of this content is to understand, digest and implement the message rather than tackling the messenger.

This is a guest post by Heritage Falodun. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Read More

Continue Reading

Uncategorized

February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

Published

on

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

Read More

Continue Reading

Uncategorized

Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes

Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

Published

on

Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.

The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250


Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.

1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.

2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.

Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.  

2-US_Job_Quits_Rate-1-2

3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too

Total employment data

4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels. 




From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:

IMG_5092

In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:

  • Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
  • High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
  • Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
IMG_5093_320f22

Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.

Read More

Continue Reading

Uncategorized

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January…

Published

on

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush. 

What happened? Let's take a closer look.

On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.

Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.

Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K,  a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!

Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.

To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).

And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...

... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...

... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.

While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.

But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).

This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.

There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).

Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!

But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!

The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!

Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...

Source: St Louis Fed FRED Native Born and Foreign Born

... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!

This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...

... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.

Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 13:30

Read More

Continue Reading

Trending