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Bitcoin hodlers ‘under siege’ at $42K as 30% of BTC supply flips from profit to loss

A historically significant 30% of the Bitcoin supply is now held at a loss — and that has ended in a bullish rebound twice since March 2020.
Bitcoin (BTC) hodlers face a crucial week in more ways than one as $42,000 rekindles a familia

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A historically significant 30% of the Bitcoin supply is now held at a loss — and that has ended in a bullish rebound twice since March 2020.

Bitcoin (BTC) hodlers face a crucial week in more ways than one as $42,000 rekindles a familiar battle.

As noted by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode on Monday, 30% of the BTC supply is now at a loss — historically, this has been a key number to defend for bulls.

Mixed opinions on rebound chances

Bitcoin’s descent from $69,000 to current levels — at one point over 40% — is nothing unusual, but for long-term investors, there is a specific reason to hope that current support holds.

Looking back at historical price performance, Glassnode reveals that once 30% of the supply goes “underwater,” price rebounds often occur.

“As the bears apply pressure to the in-profit cohort of holders, Bitcoin bulls are defending a historically significant level of the Percent of Supply in Profit metric,” staff explained in the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, “The Week On-Chain,” describing bulls as “under siege.”

“This magnitude of ‘top heavy supply’ was defended in two instances in the last few years.”

These were the post-COVID-19 market crash in March 2020 and summer 2021 in the aftermath of the China mining crackdown. The 30% in-loss level resulted in an upside impulse move for spot price in both instances.

Bitcoin percent of supply in profit annotated chart (screenshot). Source: Glassnode

Continuing, Glassnode acknowledged that the same result is nonetheless far from guaranteed this time around.

“The reaction from this level will likely provide insight into the medium-term direction of the Bitcoin market,” the newsletter continued.

“Further weakness may motivate these underwater sellers to finally capitulate, whereas a strong bullish impulse may offer much needed psychological relief, and put more coins back into an unrealized profit.”

Others were more optimistic, with fellow on-chain platform CryptoQuant expecting a bullish outcome.

“The bull run in July had just begun when it had previously risen to these levels. The bulls are aggressively preparing for the new run,” a blog post argued about the profit-to-loss ratio.

“A hodler-dominated market”

Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on the continued steely resolve by both long-term holders (LTH) and miners when it comes to preserving their assets.

Related: What bear market? Current BTC price dip still matches previous Bitcoin cycles, says analyst

With short-term holders (STH) — defined by Glassnode as coins moving in the past 155 days — staying low as a proportion of the overall supply, hope remains that the worst of the capitulation following all-time highs has been and gone.

“The supply held by this cohort sits at ~3 million BTC, a relative historical low, and a level that signifies a transition into a HODLer dominated market,” the newsletter continued.

“This has been in effect since the May 2021 deleveraging event. Low STH supply levels are typical of bearish trends, as old coins remain dormant, and younger coins are slowly accumulated by high conviction buyers.”
Bitcoin supply held by STHs vs. LTHs annotated chart (screenshot). Source: Glassnode

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JPMorgan Says Bitcoin Is 25% ‘Undervalued’, Terra FUD Overdone

JPMorgan Says Bitcoin Is 25% ‘Undervalued’, Terra FUD Overdone

As we detailed previously, the collapse of the Terra USD and the Luna token,…

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JPMorgan Says Bitcoin Is 25% 'Undervalued', Terra FUD Overdone

As we detailed previously, the collapse of the Terra USD and the Luna token, within a year of the collapse of Iron Finance and the TITAN token, once again brought out the obituaries for crypto broadly, and raised the FUD over the stabilisation mechanisms of stablecoins (most specifically 'algorithmic' style). As a reminder, we can classify stablecoins into three broad categories: fiat-backed, crypto-backed, and algorithmic.

It has also soured sentiment among crypto investors...

As JPMorgan's Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou notes in his latest report, most flow and positioning metrics also turned very negative.

The chart below shows the 4-week rolling flow into bitcoin and ethereum publicly traded funds. These funds capture a significant component of the institutional impulse as many institutional investors are either not willing or not permitted to invest directly in crypto assets via digital wallets.

In the fund space bitcoin funds including ETFs saw the largest outflow since May 2021.

The crypto fund flow impulse has been normalizing over the past year after peaking at the beginning of 2021 and has been mostly negative this year.

In the futures space, JPM's position proxy for CME bitcoin futures is approaching oversold territory. The equivalent indicator for ethereum has also declined to below neutral...

These flow and positioning metrics, Panigirtzoglou suggests, provides a good entry point for long term investors.

The JPM strategist also notes that, thus far, however, there seems to have been relatively limited spillovers to other stablecoins and the Total Value Locked in DeFi projects beyond Terra appears to have been relatively resilient.

Panigirtzoglou concludes by noting that the past month’s crypto market correction looks more like capitulation relative to last January/February and going forward JPM sees upside for bitcoin and crypto markets more generally.

Our previous projection that the bitcoin-to-gold vol ratio will settle to around 4x this year stills holds...

Our fair value for bitcoin based on a volatility-ratio of bitcoin-to-gold of around 4x would be $38k significantly above its current price.

Additionally, JPMorgan's bullish stance is reinforced by Glassnode's MVRZ Z-Score, which assesses when Bitcoin is undervalued/overvalued based on its "fair value", and is nearing the green zone that had preceded the crypto's massive rebound rallies, as shown in the chart below...

JPMorgan reiterates four reasons behind the emergence of crypto as an alternate institutional asset class.

  • First, the pandemic by inducing unconventional monetary policies and by boosting money supply created additional demand for an “alternative” currency. After the Lehman crisis, the role of an “alternative” currency was played by gold. After the virus crisis, this role was played by both bitcoin and gold.

  • Second, the fact that bitcoin and cryptocurrencies survived the long winter of 2018/2019 and their market value did not go down to zero as many crypto critics were predicting at the time, increased confidence among institutional investors that there is enough residual demand ascribing value to cryptocurrencies.

  • Third, the corporate sponsorship of bitcoin that started emerging in the summer of 2020 with Microstrategy, Square, PayPal, Tesla further boosted institutional investors’ confidence into bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

  • Fourth, the pandemic accelerated the shift towards digitization and cryptocurrencies are expanding in tandem with the adoption of Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) as they represent the fuel for powering DLT networks.

Going forward Panigirtzoglou believes that the trajectory for VC funding would be crucial in helping the crypto market to avoid the long winter of 2018/2019. If VC funding dries up from here as a result of the loss of confidence from the collapse of Terra’s ecosystem, then a return to the long winter of 2018/2019 would look more likely for crypto markets.

Thus far there is little evidence of VC funding drying up post Terra’s collapse.

Of the $25bn VC funding YTD, almost $4bn came after Terra. Panigirtzoglou ends on a positive note, saying that "our best guess is the VC funding will continue and a long winter similar to 2018/2019 would be averted."

On the same day, major venture capitalist Andreessen Horowitz announced the closing of its fourth cryptocurrency fund at $4.5 billion. Also on Wednesday, crypto-focused venture firm NGC Ventures launched its third blockchain fund with $100 million raised from investors that included Babel Finance, Huobi Ventures and Nexo Ventures.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/26/2022 - 05:45

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The Effect Of Sentiment On The Bitcoin Price

Social sentiment is often correlated to the bitcoin price and can have a snowball effect for price movements, both to the upside and downside.

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Social sentiment is often correlated to the bitcoin price and can have a snowball effect for price movements, both to the upside and downside.

Dang Quan Vuong is a trader and market analyst at King Stock Capital Management.

Potential new investors who have lately joined the Bitcoin network have expressed social interest in the asset. Whether you’re selling or buying bitcoin, your actions inherently have an impact on whale behavior. In this article, we’ll focus on how social sentiment affects whale behavior and how it connects to price volatility.

Looking at social volume (the sum count of content that mentions Bitcoin-related terms at least once, particularly on Reddit, Twitter and Telegram), we can see that social volume and bitcoin price has a positive correlation. So, what exactly is the justification for this phenomenon?

Bitcoin’s price is closely associated with social volume. (source)
Social volume AI is linked to bitcoin’s price. (source)
Active Telegram users are also correlated to bitcoin’s price. (source)

Accordingly, Google Trend data suggests that rising social volume has piqued public curiosity and prompted them to conduct their own searches for bitcoin. It shows that the amount of bitcoin mentions and references on social media is connected to public interest in bitcoin and may have influenced the public’s investment decisions.

Google trends are connected to social volume. (source)

As evidenced by the number of unique active addresses and transaction volume, social sentiment has an impact on the entire network activity. The daily cumulative count of unique addresses, including senders and receivers, is proportional to social volume, although there is a significant divergence when bitcoin is close to a bottom.

The relation between daily active addresses and bitcoin’s price. (source)

Similarly, as market participants become more active during an uptrend from the bottom, the total amount of bitcoin sent over the network in a given interval often increases, while it remains relatively low during a downtrend.

Transaction volume increasing indicates that the market is more active. (source)

Trading volume directly reflects bitcoin’s price as a result of heightened activity, and investors behave more aggressively during bull runs and less aggressively during bear markets.

Higher volume in uptrend and lower volume in downtrend. (source)

In social psychology, the snowball effect is a process that begins with a minor state and progressively grows in significance or size. The vivid portrayal is when a snowball rolls down a snow-covered mountainside, collecting additional snow, gaining more weight and momentum until it finally comes to rest. The spread of bitcoin on various social media platforms can have a similar effect, as more and more attention is given to it, causing bitcoin to gain increased public awareness and, in consequence, the snowball effect occurs. The higher the bitcoin price rises, the more publicity it receives, which again boosts buying momentum.

An upsurge in social media content would be a plausible reason for a group of traders and investors impacting the bitcoin price. They go to buy bitcoin and are confronted with stimulating content from social media. This would draw greater attention to the positive aspects of Bitcoin and make more people aware of it. The euphoria grows as more individuals enter the market. More and more people become involved as a result of the increased attention and the cycle continues over and over again.

The market continues to rise until it reaches a critical point where it stays in a condition of equilibrium and no longer rises due to a lack of buying impetus. It is because reduced social interest marks the maximum of upwards momentum and the start of a downward trend thereafter.

Whales, as many know, play a pivotal role in market movement because they have the ability to drive bitcoin’s price, so it’s important to determine when they enter the market. As shown in the following figures, the total number of whale transactions over $100,000 and $1 million rises in the rally and falls in the decline. The charts reveal that whales are more active during uptrends and less active in downtrends except for the panic sell in the COVID-19 pandemic.

Whale transactions over $100,000 increasing is often a signal for an initiated move up. (source)
Whale transactions over $1 million increasing often results in a bounce back. (source)

In a specific interval of time, the ratio of total coins transferred in profit to total coins transferred in loss grows in uptrends and drops in downtrends. It means that profit increases during an upswing until it reaches its peak. Then it goes down until most investors are in the red, at which point the trend reverses.

P/L of daily transactions is almost highest near the top and lowest near the bottom. (source)

In summary, the premise of upswing momentum is the growing social sentiment as new investors eagerly enter the market. This self-fulfilling prophecy has historically been attributed to the acceleration of traded volume. When the Bitcoin community thinks the market will move higher in an uptrend, more purchase orders are placed, causing the market to trend upward. Meanwhile, whales are likely to distribute their holdings to newcomers before forcing them to sell them at a loss after a period of time. As a result of the growing public interest, the network value expands until there is no more buying momentum and then bitcoin eventually gets dumped. This cycle is set up to repeat itself periodically.

This is a guest post by Dang Quan Vuong. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc. or Bitcoin Magazine.

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Daily Crunch: a16z literally doubles down, announces $4.5B crypto fund IV

Hello friends and welcome to Daily Crunch, bringing you the most important startup, tech and venture capital news in a single package.

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To get a roundup of TechCrunch’s biggest and most important stories delivered to your inbox every day at 3 p.m. PDT, subscribe here.

It’s Wednesday the 25th of May, 2022, and we are devastated by the events of the last couple of days. It’s hard to put together a newsletter about tech against the backdrop of a school shooting. Big news events impact everyone differently, so please remember to give yourself and those around you a bit of extra space. We love you. — Haje and Christine

The TechCrunch Top 3

  • Going, going gone: Twitter confirmed that its former CEO Jack Dorsey stepped down from the company’s board today. No, it’s not a surprise. He and the company were vocal about when his final days would be. We assume Dorsey is happy with how he is leaving things.
  • No crypto slowdown to see here: Even with a grim cryptocurrency market report, there are still dollars to be raised if you are developing viable blockchain infrastructure. StarkWare Industries grabbed 100 million of them, bringing the company’s valuation to $8 billion, essentially a four-time boost from its previous round. Why is blockchain infrastructure so important? Why, integrity of the whole system of course, Jacquie reports.
  • Creepy crawlers: What’s half a millimeter wide and crawls? We’re sure there’s so many gross things running through your mind right now, but in this case it is a remote-controlled crab “robot” created by some geniuses at Northwestern University. Not sure what use there is for a teeny crab, but it’s cute anyway.

Image Credits: Northwestern University / Northwestern University

Startups and VC

In startupland, it’s all crypto all the time today. Lucas covers how a16z announced a $4.5 billion Web3 fund less than a year since it announced its $2.2 billion crypto fund III. Meanwhile, Volt Capital debuts a $50 million fund, also backed by a16z.

DJ Gabeau, one of Snapchat Stories’ earliest engineers and founder of Web3 social network Primitives, told TechCrunch that he thinks NFTs can be an enjoyable way for people to connect, Anita reports.

As members of the Terra community try to pick up the pieces from its currently defunct economy, Polygon launches a fund to entice the dozens of developers who had projects built on the inoperative blockchain, Jacquelyn reports.

And finally, the IRS’s tax partner ZenLedger was already off to the races, but it is leaning on the accelerator with a $15 million series B, Anita reports.

Don’t worry, there’s nonblockchain news too:

Despite regulatory roadblocks, these four US cannabis investors are planting seeds for tomorrow

The cannabis industry is doing very well in the United States.

A state-by-state patchwork of regulations has created a limited market for public and private companies that handle grow operations, distribution and transportation, inventory control, testing and point-of-sale software.

Budtenders are a frequent sight at California weddings, but Anna Heim found that the industry still has a long way to go before it reaches maturity, largely because federal laws continue to prevent cannabis-related business from using traditional financial services.

To learn more about the underlying market forces and hurdles facing entrepreneurs and investors in this maverick industry, she spoke to four investors:

  • Jacqueline Bennett, managing partner and co-founder, Highlands Venture Partners
  • Yoni Meyer, partner, Casa Verde Capital
  • Matt Hawkins, managing partner and co-founder, Entourage Effect Capital
  • Emily Paxhia, managing director, Poseidon Investment Management

(TechCrunch+ is our membership program, which helps founders and startup teams get ahead. You can sign up here.)

Big Tech Inc.

In anticipation of a possible reversal of abortion privacy law Roe v. Wade, a group of Democratic congressional members penned a letter to Google’s CEO Sundar Pichai, urging the company to consider changing the way it currently collects and retains cell phone location data records. Carly reports the fear is that it could become a tool for “far-right extremists looking to crack down on people seeking reproductive health care.”

Apple says its iOS App Store supports some 2.2 million jobs and was responsible for a 118% increase in U.S. small developer earnings over the past 2 years. Sarah and Natasha provide some analysis of the numbers, noting, “these figures highlight how important the App Store is to a wide range of global developers. That, in turn, could also help demonstrate why a system this large and powerful could also be due for more regulation and competition.”

Speaking of Apple, if you live in Maryland and have an Apple Wallet, you can store your driver’s license or state ID there. The state became the second, behind Arizona, to offer the feature.

Don’t miss these equally exciting stories from today:

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