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Bitcoin Gold Copycat Rally ‘Just Started’ Amid Worries of March Repeat

Bitcoin Gold Copycat Rally ‘Just Started’ Amid Worries of March Repeat

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Growing belief in Bitcoin following gold higher contrasts with chart analysis, which shows multiple weaknesses remain.

Bitcoin (BTC) is preparing to copy gold as it aims for all-time highs, according to an exchange amid fresh warnings that a correction is due.

In a tweet on July 9, LATOKEN highlighted the increasingly “correlated” relationship between the precious metal and BTC.

Bitcoin-gold correlation increasing?

After XAU/USD topped $1,800 for the first time since 2011 this week, BTC/USD should now follow suit, it argued.

“#Gold hits 9-year high, while #Bitcoin's rally has just started. #BTC and gold have been growing correlated in recent times,” it summarized.

At press time, gold traded at $1,813, up almost 7% in the last month alone. 

Investors in both safe havens have been broadly shielded from the fallout from coronavirus this year, with year-to-date gains at 31.7% for Bitcoin and 18.3% for gold.

Bitcoin put in 24-hour gains of 1.1% on Thursday, reaching $9,480 in a surprise uptick which took markets above $9,300 resistance. That price ceiling had been in place for more than two weeks.

Bitcoin vs. gold 1-year chart

Bitcoin vs. gold 1-year chart. Source: Skew

BTC shows eerie similarities to Coronavirus crash

When all macro crashed in March, Bitcoin soon bounced back. According to one trader, however, current BTC price behavior looks suspiciously similar to the days before the cryptocurrency fell to $3,600.

Uploading a chart and analyzing a fractal in BTC/USDT on Binance, popular Twitter account @NebraskanGooner spotted a repeat of mid March in the past few days’ trading.

BTC/USD chart showing behavior patterns

BTC/USD chart showing behavior patterns. Source: NebraskanGooner/ Twitter

Earlier, another indicator, ten-day realized volatility, hit 20% — its lowest levels since November 2018, weeks before BTC/USD hit lows of $3,100.

Mixed signals for Bitcoin have yet to be reflected in gold’s optimism, with gold bugs confident on both short and long-term scales. As Cointelegraph reported, a survey of over 10,000 people on Twitter by Bitcoin skeptic Peter Schiff showed that half still believe that Bitcoin will copy gold to track higher.

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Economics

Dollar Slump Halted as Stocks and Bonds Retreat

Overview: Hopes that the global tightening cycle is entering its last phase supplied the fodder for a continued dramatic rally in equities and bonds….

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Overview: Hopes that the global tightening cycle is entering its last phase supplied the fodder for a continued dramatic rally in equities and bonds. The euro traded at par for the first time in two weeks, while sterling reached almost $1.1490, its highest since September 15. The US 10-year yield has fallen by 45 bp in the past five sessions. Yet, the scar tissue from the last bear market rally is still fresh and US equity futures are lower after the S&P 500 had its best two days since 2020. Europe’s Stoxx 600, which has gained more than 5% its three-day rally is more around 0.9% lower in late morning turnover. The large Asia-Pacific bourses advanced, led by a nearly 6% rally in Hong Kong as it returned from holiday. Similarly, the bond market, which rallied with stocks, has sold off. The US 10-year yield is up around seven basis points to 3.70%, while European yields are 7-14 bp higher. Peripheral premiums are also widening. The dollar is firmer against most G10 currencies, with the New Zealand dollar holding its own after the central bank delivered was seems to be a hawkish 50 bp hike. Emerging market currencies are mostly lower, including Poland where the central bank is expected to deliver a 25 bp hike shortly. After rising to $1730 yesterday, gold is offered and could ease back toward $1700 near-term. December WTI is consolidating after rallying around 8.5% earlier this week as the OPEC+ decision is awaited. Speculation over a large nominal cut helped lift prices. US and European natural gas prices are softer today. Iron ore is extended yesterday’s gains, while December copper is paring yesterday’s 2.35% gain. December wheat is off for a third session, and if sustained, would be the longest losing streak since mid-August.  

Asia Pacific

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand quickly laid to rest ideas that the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to hike only a quarter of a point yesterday instead of a half-point was representative of a broader development. It told us nothing about anything outside of Australia. The RBNZ delivered the expected 50 bp increase and acknowledged it had considered a 75 bp move. In addition, it signaled further tightening would be delivered. It meets next on November 23, and the market has more than an 85% chance of another 50 bp hike discounted.

Both Australia and Japan's final service and composite PMI were revised higher in the final reading. Japan's service PMI was tweaked to 52.2 from 51.9. It was 49.5 in August. Similarly, the composite is at 51.0, up from 50.9 flash reading and 49.4 in August. In Australia, the service and composite PMI were at 50.2 in August. The flash estimate put it at 50.4 and 50.8, respectively. The final reading is 50.6 and 50.9 for the service and composite PMI.

Softer US yields weighed on the dollar against the yen. On Monday, it briefly traded above JPY145. Today, it traded at a seven-day low, slightly above JPY143.50. US yields are firmer, and the greenback has recovered and traded above JPY144.50 in early European turnover. The intraday momentum indicators are getting stretched, and the JPY144.75 area may cap it today. The Australian dollar traded to almost $.06550 yesterday but has struggled to sustain upticks over $0.6520 today. Initial support is seen in the $0.6450-60 area. Trade figures are out tomorrow. The New Zealand dollar initially rose to slightly through $0.5800 on the back of the hike but has succumbed to the greenback's strength. It returned little changed levels around $0.5730 before finding a bid in Europe. The US dollar reached CNH7.2675 last week and finished last week near CNH7.1420. It fell to almost CNH7.01 today and bounced smartly. A near-term low look to be in place, a modest dollar recovery seems likely. 

Europe

UK Prime Minister Truss will speak at the Tory Party Conference as the North American session gets under way. We argued that calling retaining the 45% highest marginal tax rate a "U-turn" was an exaggeration and misreading of the new government. It was the most controversial part of the mini budget apparently among the Tory MPs. This was a strategic retreat and a small price to pay for the other 98% of Kwarteng's announcement. Bringing forward the November 23 "medium-term fiscal plan" (still to be confirmed with specifics) is more about process than substance. The fact that she seems to be considering not making good her Tory predecessor pledge to link welfare payments to inflation suggests she has not been chastened by the cold bath reception to her government's first actions. However, on another front, Truss is changing her stance. As Foreign Secretary she drafted legislation that overrode the Northern Ireland Protocol unilaterally. In a more profound shift, she has abandoned the legislation and UK-EU talks resumed this week Truss is hopeful for a deal in the spring. Lastly, we note that the UK service and composite PMI were revised to show smaller deterioration from August. The service PMI is at 50 not 49.2 as the flash estimate had it. It was at 50.9 previously. The composite remains below 50 at 49.1, but the preliminary estimate had it at 48.4 from 49.6 in August. 

Germany's announcement of the weekend of a 200 bln euro off-budget "defensive shield" has spurred more rancor in Europe. Not all countries have the fiscal space of Germany. Two EC Commissioners called for an EU budget response. They seem to look at the 1.8 trillion-euro joint debt program (Next Generation fund) as precedent. This is, of course, the issue. During the pandemic, some suggested this was a key breakthrough for fiscal union, a congenital birth defect of EMU. However, this is exactly what the fight is about. If there is no joint action, the net result will likely be more fragmentation of the internal markets. Still, the creditor nations will resist, and Germany's Finance Minister Linder was first out of the shoot. While claiming to be open to other measures, Linder argued that challenge now is from supply shock, not demand. On the other hand, the European Parliament mandated that all mobile phones, tablets, and cameras are equipped with USB-C charge by the end of 2024. The costs savings is estimated to be around 250 mln euros a year. No fiscal union, partial banking, and monetary union, but a charger union.

The final PMI disappointed in the eurozone. The Big 4 preliminary readings were revised lower, suggesting conditions deteriorated further since the flash estimates. It was small change, but the direction was uniform. On the aggregate level, the service PMI was revised lower to 48.8 from 48.9 and 49.8 in August. The composite reading eased to 48.1 from 48.2 preliminary estimate and 48.9 in August. Italy and Spain, for which there is no flash report, were both weaker than expected, further below the 50 boom/bust level. France was the only one of these four that had a composite reading above 50 and improved from August. Separately, France reported a dramatic 2.4% rise in the August industrial output. The median forecast in Bloomberg's survey was for an unchanged report. Lastly, we note that Germany's August trade surplus was a quarter of the size that economists (median in the Bloomberg survey) expected at 1.2 bln euros instead of 4.7 bln. Adding insult to injury, the July balance was revised to 3.4 bln euros from 5.4 bln.

The euro stalled near $1.00 yesterday, the highest level since September 20. However, it has come back better offered today and fell slightly below $0.9925 in early European activity. Initial support is seen around $0.9900 and then $0.9840-50. The euro finished last week slightly above $0.9800. We suspect that market may consolidate broadly now ahead of Friday's US jobs report. The euro's gains seem more a function of short covering than bottom picking. Sterling edged a little closer to $1.15 but could not push through and has been setback to about $1.1380. The intraday momentum indicators allow for a bit more slippage and the next support area is around $1.1350.

America

Fed Chair Powell has explained that for inflation, one number, the PCE deflator best captures the price pressures. However, he says, the labor market has many dimensions and no one number does it justice. Weekly initial jobless claims fell to five-month lows in late September. On the other hand, the ISM manufacturing employment index fell below the 50 boom/bust level for the fourth month in the past five. The JOLTS report showed the labor market easing, with job openings falling by nearly a million to its lowest level in 14 months. Yet, despite the talk about the Reserve Bank of Australia's smaller cut as some kind of tell of Fed policy (eye roll) and the drop in JOLTS, the fact of the matter is that the market view of the trajectory of Fed policy has not changed. Specifically, the probability of a 75 bp hike is almost 77% at yesterday's settlement, which is the most since last Monday. The terminal rate is still seen in 

Attention may turn to the ADP report due today but recall that they have changed their model and explicitly said that it is not meant to forecast the national figures. Those are due Friday. Also, along with the ADP data, the US reports the August trade figures today. We are concerned that the US trade deficit will deteriorate again and note that dollar is at extreme levels of valuation on the OECD's purchasing power parity model. That may be a 2023 story. What counts for GDP, of course, is the real trade balance, and in July it was at its lowest level since last October. Despite the strong dollar, US goods exports reached a record in July. Imports fell to a five-month low, which, at least in part, seems to reflect the difficult in many consumer businesses in managing inventories. The final PMI reading is unlikely to draw much attention. The preliminary reading had the composite rising for the first time in six months but still below the 50 at 49.3. The ISM services offer new information. The risk seems to be on the downside of the median forecast for 56.0 from 56.9.

Yesterday, we mistakenly said that would report is August building permits and trade figure, but they are out today. Permits, which likely fell for the third straight month, as the tighter monetary policy bits. The combination of slowing world growth and softer commodity prices warns the best of the positive terms-of-trade shock is behind it. The trade surplus is expected to fall for the second consecutive month. Even before the RBA delivered the 25 bp rate hike, the market had been downgrading the probability of a half-point move from the Bank of Canada. Last Thursday, the swaps market had it as a 92% chance. At the close Monday, it had been downgraded to a little less 72%. Yesterday, it slipped slightly below 65%. Further softening appears to be taking place today, even after the RBNZ's 50 bp hike. The odds have slipped below 50% in the swaps market.

After finishing last week slightly above CAD1.38, the US dollar has been sold to nearly CAD1.35 yesterday. No follow-through selling has been seen and the greenback was bid back to CAD1.3585. The Canadian dollar has fallen out of favor today as US equity index futures are paring gains after two strong advances. There may be scope for CAD1.3630 today if the sale of US equities resumes. The greenback has found a base around MXN19.95. The risk-off mod can lift it back toward MXN20.10-15. Look for the dollar to also recover more against the Brazilian real after bouncing off the BRL5.11 area yesterday.

 


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Spread & Containment

COVID and the cost of living crisis are set to collide this winter – the fallout will be greatest for the most vulnerable

If governments fail to take action, the cost of living crisis will worsen the impact of the pandemic this winter, and vice versa.

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The financial strain many have faced during the pandemic will be compounded by the cost of living crisis. Lena Evans/Shutterstock

The cost of living crisis is affecting people around the world. Although it’s been building for some time, the fact that this crisis comes hot on the heels of an ongoing pandemic only makes matters worse.

It’s not surprising, though still worth highlighting, that the cost of living crisis won’t be felt equally across society. For example, the toll will be greater for people living in more deprived areas, those on lower incomes, older adults, single-parent families, people with disabilities and those from minority ethnic backgrounds.

People from these groups are already more likely to have had to reduce their gas and electricity use, to struggle to pay their bills and to face fuel poverty.

We also know that COVID-19, although challenging for everyone, is an unequal pandemic. People from minority ethnic groups, from the most deprived neighbourhoods, older people and those with underlying health conditions have been at higher risk of death or serious illness from COVID.

This will be the first winter since the pandemic began where many countries have removed all non-pharmaceutical protections, including face masks, testing, social distancing and self-isolation. After two-and-a-half years of uncertainty, what we’re about to experience is, again, unprecedented.

Unless we learn from past missteps, both in government responses to economic crises and the pandemic, these two crises will collide to make for a devastating winter, especially for the most vulnerable.

Some examples

If people are struggling to pay their bills, how can they be expected to buy COVID tests? Or to stay home from work when they have COVID symptoms, if they’ll lose out on their wages?

Governments and councils in the UK are already setting up “warm banks”, which are public spots, such as places of worship or community centres, that people can go to if their homes are too cold. There are a number of concerns over warm banks, not least that they treat the symptom rather than the cause of the problem.

However, we know that COVID spreads easily indoors, especially where large numbers of people are mixing for extended periods. So another concern is that warm banks might increase the spread of COVID among those who are both most vulnerable to the effects of the virus, and most in need of somewhere warm.


Read more: Cost of living crisis: the health risks of not turning the heating on in winter


Many people will have already been under increased financial strain during the pandemic as a result of lost or lower income, making them more vulnerable to the cost of living crisis.

Research has found a link between recession and lifestyle-related health risk factors, such as poor diet and obesity, particularly for those from lower socioeconomic backgrounds. We know obesity is a significant risk factor for getting very sick and dying from COVID.

Indeed, past experience tells us that economic crises can be devastating to the health of the most vulnerable. Austerity measures implemented in Europe following the 2008 recession saw cuts to public spending, including social protections, education and health. This coincided with an overall widening of health inequalities in the decade from 2010.

So as many countries hurtle towards another recession, how can we learn from the pandemic, and the last recession, to better weather these twin crises?

Shared responsibility

I am a social scientist with expertise in public health, and I’ve been leading research looking at public experiences during the COVID pandemic. Over the course of the pandemic, I have argued that too much responsibility was put in the hands of the public. The long-term solution to reducing the impacts of infectious respiratory diseases is less about washing hands and more about ensuring public buildings and transport have adequate ventilation (although clean hands help too).

Similarly, the long-term solution to the cost of living crisis is less about suggesting people buy new kettles, and more about building warmer houses – and making them more affordable for all.

A person warms their hands on a radiator.
A cost of living crisis is taking hold. Jelena Stanojkovic/Shutterstock

There are of course ways that we, as individuals, can help ourselves and each other. Earlier in the pandemic, we saw how communities came together to support one another. A large number of grassroots groups, often organised via Facebook or WhatsApp, worked to provide food and other essentials to people who were self-isolating or after they had lost their jobs, for example.

It’s encouraging that a portion of these mutual aid groups are still active, and have pivoted to helping people cope with the cost of living crisis.

But ultimate responsibility lies with governments and society at large.

The solutions are complex

In the immediate term, we need to be strengthening rather than cutting funding and policies that protect public health. In the UK for example, there are concerning signs that the new cabinet is looking to undo hard-fought public health measures designed to reduce obesity.

Energy price caps can help to alleviate the crisis somewhat, but don’t go far enough. As Michael Marmot, an epidemiologist at University College London, argues, now is the time to deal with the longer-term problems that underpin fuel poverty.

Universal basic income has been put forward as one possible solution to the inequalities exacerbated by the pandemic. But what about, as some have proposed, universal basic energy, where each household has a portion of its energy paid for by the government?


Read more: How to tackle the UK cost of living crisis – four economists have their say


One approach which might guide us moving forward is proportionate universalism, where those most in need are given the most support. Energy price caps fail to achieve this on their own.

Payments for the most vulnerable are a start, but, as we learned from financial support for COVID self-isolation, it’s not just about making money available, but making it quick and easy to apply for and access.

As with the pandemic, although we will all be affected by the cost of living crisis this winter, for the most vulnerable, it might be more fitting to call it a “cost of surviving” crisis.

Simon Nicholas Williams has received funding from Swansea University, the University of Manchester, Senedd Cymru, Public Health Wales and the Wales COVID-19 Evidence Centre for research on COVID-19. However, this article reflects the views of the author only and no funding bodies were involved in the writing or content of this article.

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International

Unlocking the potential of connected commercialisation solutions

It is no secret that today’s post-pandemic healthcare landscape in the UK is very different to its pre-pandemic
The post Unlocking the potential of connected…

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It is no secret that today’s post-pandemic healthcare landscape in the UK is very different to its pre-pandemic counterpart. Driven by necessity, COVID-19 accelerated reforms that had long languished on the sidelines of healthcare agendas in the UK, ushering in a new way of working for both the NHS and UK life sciences industry on an unprecedented scale.

NHS priorities have changed amid workforce and capacity issues, technological innovations and the growing influence of Integrated Care Systems (ICSs). For life science companies, it is more important than ever to understand the market access landscape they are launching in and review how commercial and engagement strategies align with the needs of today’s customers.

Preparing a cross-functional strategy with aligned priorities, activities, and recommendations across commercial, medical, and market access teams is essential if companies are to successfully cut through the noise of the modern healthcare market and connect with healthcare professionals. With connected solutions that link the priorities of each team, companies can optimise their engagement with the NHS, and ultimately ensure that patients are able to benefit from their products.

Here, IQVIA’s head of commercial effectiveness Martin Fox, head of strategic market access, Steve Ferguson, engagement lead global CSMS, Elizabeth Murray, and patient and market access solution lead, Stephen How discuss the need to align value propositions with NHS priorities, the importance of connected solutions and cross-functional teams in commercialisation, and how companies can maximise marketing efforts to connect with decision-makers.

• Read the full article in pharmaphorum’s Deep Dive digital magazine

The post Unlocking the potential of connected commercialisation solutions appeared first on .

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