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Bitcoin Caps Its Best Week Ever: 5 Things to Watch This Week

With its best-ever weekly close in the bag, Bitcoin is set to vie with Ether for supremacy this week.

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This article was originally published by the Coin Telegraph.

With its best-ever weekly close in the bag, Bitcoin is set to vie with Ether and the new "altseason" for supremacy this week. Bitcoin (BTC) bulls seem firmly in the driving seat this week as the largest cryptocurrency begins Monday at near $40,000. After climbing through much of the previous week’s trading, BTC/USD is now up 15% compared to seven days ago — what’s next? Cointelegraph takes a look at five factors which may influence where Bitcoin heads in the coming few days.

Stocks hit records but dollar declines

Bitcoin’s ascent prior to the weekend was accompanied by a familiar scenario on macro markets. Despite Coronavirus and its fallout continuing to wreak havoc on many economies worldwide, stock markets hit new all-time highs, with the S&P 500 closing its biggest weekly gain since last November. Oil climbed above $60 a barrel for the first time in more than a year on Monday. The mood was buoyed the prospect of fresh spending in the United States as lawmakers looked to finalize the details of President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package. As Bitcoin proponents have consistently noted since the start of the pandemic and before, more spending means more money concentrated closer to the government and central bank — a phenomenon known as the “cantillon effect” — paving the way for continued interventions in stock markets among other areas. At the same time, the U.S. dollar has suffered in recent days, part of an ongoing narrative which states that the world’s reserve currency will continue to decline. The U.S. dollar currency index (DXY) abruptly fell below 91 on Monday, reversing its recent uptrend, which had begun in mid-January.
U.S. dollar currency index (DXY) 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView
Despite mixed views over stimulus, political sources appear to be fully signed up to inflating the money supply as the only option. “I remain concerned, as a medium-term worry, with secular stagnation, believe that fiscal policy will need to be much more active in the years ahead, and certainly share the administration’s view that policy should err very much on the side of expansion at a moment like this,” Lawrence Summers, chief economic adviser to Barack Obama, wrote in the Washington Post on Sunday.
“But these kinds of qualitative considerations do not provide a basis for judging whether $900 billion in short-term stimulus should be followed immediately by a $1 trillion, $1.9 trillion or $5 trillion measure, prior to an ultimate multitrillion-dollar public investment measure.”
As Cointelegraph often reports, DXY weakness tends to result in stronger performance on BTC/USD, though the negative correlation has noticeably diminished since September 2020.
BTC rolling 90-day return correlations vs. USD, VIX, Gold, S&P500. Source: Digital Assets Data

BTC price sees best weekly close

After biding its time, Bitcoin is thus beginning to look like it could soon exit its established short-term trading zone between $30,000 and $40,000. Signs that this is on the cards were already present — fundamentals were at all-time highs and various indicators pointed to the start of 2021 forming the first innings of a bull run, not the last. This week continues the trend, with network hash rate at record levels and difficulty set to increase by almost 5% at the next readjustment in ten days’ time. Sunday’s weekly close officially forms Bitcoin’s highest ever.
BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
“There will be pullbacks, maybe even to retest the top of the flag as support,” popular trader Scott Melker summarized about the market with a new chart prediction on Saturday.
“But technically this is a confirmed breakout that should take $BTC to 63K eventually. Disclaimer - patterns rarely reach their targets, but the rules are the rules.”
The weekend saw Bitcoin’s first decisive overshoot of $40,000 in almost a month, fuelling anticipation that a restructuring of price-performance could follow.

D-Day for Ether futures

As strong as Bitcoin looked, however, Monday was all about altcoins and in particular Ether (ETH). After passing all-time highs of its own last week, the largest altcoin has received its own dedicated Ether futures from CME Group. With a wave of professional traders now tipped to enter, excitement was already clearly visible on the market over the past week as Grayscale added to a buying frenzy that sent ETH/USD above $1,750. Now, however, attention is turning to whether performance can continue, or if the futures launch will be an anticlimax which conversely triggers corrective behavior. “Personally, I'm not entering the markets at all here,” Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michaël van de Poppe told Twitter followers on Sunday.
“Gradually taking profits have been my game recently on the swing trades through which I'm flexible in the coming weeks to come. I simply don't know how markets will react from tomorrow onwards with the CME futures.”
Van de Poppe added that should a reversal ensue, likely support levels lay significantly below spot price — at $1,100-1,175 and $875-$950 respectively. In 2017, the launch of the first Bitcoin futures coincided with a price build-up, followed by a comedown that triggered a year-long bear market. At the same time, futures uptake came much more slowly than thought, only hitting its stride in 2019.
ETH/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Bitcoin dominance points downward

It is not just futures fuelling Ether, however, and continued investment in DeFi and other major altcoins could continue to cause a headache for Bitcoin. DeFi tokens have surged this year, and the past week have seen five altcoins gain in excess of 115%. As such, Bitcoin’s share of the overall cryptocurrency market cap is dwindling. Currently at 61%, its presence has returned to its position from October last year, just 5% off one-year lows.
Cryptocurrency market cap dominance chart. Source: CoinMarketCap
“In January 2017, after the second halving, we were only a few weeks away from a HUGE Altcoin Season,” popular Twitter commentator The Moon noted, adding a chart comparing Bitcoin dominance now and three years ago.
“The #Bitcoin Dominance dropped 60%, and Altcoins made 20X, 50X, 100X gains. What do you think, can something similar happen again?”
Right on cue, the world’s richest man, Elon Musk, returned with fresh publicity for meme-based altcoin Dogecoin (DOGE) on Monday. “Doge appears to be inflationary, but is not meaningfully so (fixed # of coins per unit time), whereas BTC is arguably deflationary to a fault,” he claimed on Twitter.
“Transaction speed of Doge should ideally be a few orders of magnitude faster.”
As Cointelegraph reported, the success of Ether and DeFi is not without its problems. Transaction fees in the form of gas have exploded as prices have increased, leading to issues for users and exchanges alike.

$90,000 by April?

Right on track — that was the conclusion from quant analyst PlanB about Bitcoin’s performance after its most recent halving event last May. In a Twitter update, the creator of the stock-to-flow family of price forecasting models showed that compared to the post-halving periods in 2013 and 2017, Bitcoin was right in the middle. As such, depending on whether Bitcoin’s next move is more akin to the former or latter, price targets range between an average of $100,000 or $288,000.
BTC/USD post-halving comparison. Source: PlanB/ Twitter
Bringing halving-based predictions closer to the present, meanwhile, popular commentator Bitcoin Archive devised a $90,000 aim for as soon as April this year.   The reason, the account claimed, is that BItcoin is in fact following 2017 post-halving behavior, but “much higher.” “If we continue along this path 90k in April/May is the target,” it summarized, using data from Ecoinometrics.

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate…

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate iron levels in their blood due to a COVID-19 infection could be at greater risk of long COVID.

(Shutterstock)

A new study indicates that problems with iron levels in the bloodstream likely trigger chronic inflammation and other conditions associated with the post-COVID phenomenon. The findings, published on March 1 in Nature Immunology, could offer new ways to treat or prevent the condition.

Long COVID Patients Have Low Iron Levels

Researchers at the University of Cambridge pinpointed low iron as a potential link to long-COVID symptoms thanks to a study they initiated shortly after the start of the pandemic. They recruited people who tested positive for the virus to provide blood samples for analysis over a year, which allowed the researchers to look for post-infection changes in the blood. The researchers looked at 214 samples and found that 45 percent of patients reported symptoms of long COVID that lasted between three and 10 months.

In analyzing the blood samples, the research team noticed that people experiencing long COVID had low iron levels, contributing to anemia and low red blood cell production, just two weeks after they were diagnosed with COVID-19. This was true for patients regardless of age, sex, or the initial severity of their infection.

According to one of the study co-authors, the removal of iron from the bloodstream is a natural process and defense mechanism of the body.

But it can jeopardize a person’s recovery.

When the body has an infection, it responds by removing iron from the bloodstream. This protects us from potentially lethal bacteria that capture the iron in the bloodstream and grow rapidly. It’s an evolutionary response that redistributes iron in the body, and the blood plasma becomes an iron desert,” University of Oxford professor Hal Drakesmith said in a press release. “However, if this goes on for a long time, there is less iron for red blood cells, so oxygen is transported less efficiently affecting metabolism and energy production, and for white blood cells, which need iron to work properly. The protective mechanism ends up becoming a problem.”

The research team believes that consistently low iron levels could explain why individuals with long COVID continue to experience fatigue and difficulty exercising. As such, the researchers suggested iron supplementation to help regulate and prevent the often debilitating symptoms associated with long COVID.

It isn’t necessarily the case that individuals don’t have enough iron in their body, it’s just that it’s trapped in the wrong place,” Aimee Hanson, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Cambridge who worked on the study, said in the press release. “What we need is a way to remobilize the iron and pull it back into the bloodstream, where it becomes more useful to the red blood cells.”

The research team pointed out that iron supplementation isn’t always straightforward. Achieving the right level of iron varies from person to person. Too much iron can cause stomach issues, ranging from constipation, nausea, and abdominal pain to gastritis and gastric lesions.

1 in 5 Still Affected by Long COVID

COVID-19 has affected nearly 40 percent of Americans, with one in five of those still suffering from symptoms of long COVID, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Long COVID is marked by health issues that continue at least four weeks after an individual was initially diagnosed with COVID-19. Symptoms can last for days, weeks, months, or years and may include fatigue, cough or chest pain, headache, brain fog, depression or anxiety, digestive issues, and joint or muscle pain.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 12:50

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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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Spread & Containment

Another beloved brewery files Chapter 11 bankruptcy

The beer industry has been devastated by covid, changing tastes, and maybe fallout from the Bud Light scandal.

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Before the covid pandemic, craft beer was having a moment. Most cities had multiple breweries and taprooms with some having so many that people put together the brewery version of a pub crawl.

It was a period where beer snobbery ruled the day and it was not uncommon to hear bar patrons discuss the makeup of the beer the beer they were drinking. This boom period always seemed destined for failure, or at least a retraction as many markets seemed to have more craft breweries than they could support.

Related: Fast-food chain closes more stores after Chapter 11 bankruptcy

The pandemic, however, hastened that downfall. Many of these local and regional craft breweries counted on in-person sales to drive their business. 

And while many had local and regional distribution, selling through a third party comes with much lower margins. Direct sales drove their business and the pandemic forced many breweries to shut down their taprooms during the period where social distancing rules were in effect.

During those months the breweries still had rent and employees to pay while little money was coming in. That led to a number of popular beermakers including San Francisco's nationally-known Anchor Brewing as well as many regional favorites including Chicago’s Metropolitan Brewing, New Jersey’s Flying Fish, Denver’s Joyride Brewing, Tampa’s Zydeco Brew Werks, and Cleveland’s Terrestrial Brewing filing bankruptcy.

Some of these brands hope to survive, but others, including Anchor Brewing, fell into Chapter 7 liquidation. Now, another domino has fallen as a popular regional brewery has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Overall beer sales have fallen.

Image source: Shutterstock

Covid is not the only reason for brewery bankruptcies

While covid deserves some of the blame for brewery failures, it's not the only reason why so many have filed for bankruptcy protection. Overall beer sales have fallen driven by younger people embracing non-alcoholic cocktails, and the rise in popularity of non-beer alcoholic offerings,

Beer sales have fallen to their lowest levels since 1999 and some industry analysts

"Sales declined by more than 5% in the first nine months of the year, dragged down not only by the backlash and boycotts against Anheuser-Busch-owned Bud Light but the changing habits of younger drinkers," according to data from Beer Marketer’s Insights published by the New York Post.

Bud Light parent Anheuser Busch InBev (BUD) faced massive boycotts after it partnered with transgender social media influencer Dylan Mulvaney. It was a very small partnership but it led to a right-wing backlash spurred on by Kid Rock, who posted a video on social media where he chastised the company before shooting up cases of Bud Light with an automatic weapon.

Another brewery files Chapter 11 bankruptcy

Gizmo Brew Works, which does business under the name Roth Brewing Company LLC, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on March 8. In its filing, the company checked the box that indicates that its debts are less than $7.5 million and it chooses to proceed under Subchapter V of Chapter 11. 

"Both small business and subchapter V cases are treated differently than a traditional chapter 11 case primarily due to accelerated deadlines and the speed with which the plan is confirmed," USCourts.gov explained. 

Roth Brewing/Gizmo Brew Works shared that it has 50-99 creditors and assets $100,000 and $500,000. The filing noted that the company does expect to have funds available for unsecured creditors. 

The popular brewery operates three taprooms and sells its beer to go at those locations.

"Join us at Gizmo Brew Works Craft Brewery and Taprooms located in Raleigh, Durham, and Chapel Hill, North Carolina. Find us for entertainment, live music, food trucks, beer specials, and most importantly, great-tasting craft beer by Gizmo Brew Works," the company shared on its website.

The company estimates that it has between $1 and $10 million in liabilities (a broad range as the bankruptcy form does not provide a space to be more specific).

Gizmo Brew Works/Roth Brewing did not share a reorganization or funding plan in its bankruptcy filing. An email request for comment sent through the company's contact page was not immediately returned.

 

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