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Bitcoin 2023 Is The Festival Of Humanity We Need As Technology’s Grip Grows Stronger

With the specter of technologies like AI and CBDCs rising, Bitcoin 2023 will foster critical human connections.

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This is an opinion editorial by Nozomi Hayase, Ph.D., who has a background in psychology and human development. Disclaimer: Bitcoin 2023 and Bitcoin Magazine are both operated by BTC Inc.

With rising inflation and a growing number of bank failures, the dysfunctional nature of the fiat system becomes more apparent day by day. In the midst of this chaos, Bitcoin enthusiasts are staying calm, even generally hopeful about their futures.

As public trust in institutions weakens, governments around the world are gearing up for

central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) as a means of reasserting their authority over peoples’ money.

“Thank God, we have Bitcoin!”

Those of us who are fortunate to have found it are relieved that Bitcoin exists. As Christine Lagarde, the head of the European Central Bank once acknowledged, Bitcoin is an escape hatch from the financial surveillance state.

Bitcoin, the hardest money ever created, presents a real alternative to both current fiat currencies and CBDCs. Now, those who so choose don’t have to go down the path leading toward a dystopian society. This might make us feel at ease. Some of you might think we can just HODL and maybe orange pill newcomers here and there, and simply wait for hyperbitcoinization. But I say, “Not quite yet. We can’t just sit back and relax.”

We Bitcoiners have important tasks ahead: Bitcoin's battle against the fraudulent banking system is far from over. It is really only just beginning.

The Battle Is Beginning

Bitcoin, over the 14 years since its creation, has been slowly unveiling its revolutionary potential. Bitcoin is a form of “digital gold” that cannot be confiscated. As a saving technology, it provides inflation proofing, allowing us to store value securely. Its core feature of censorship resistance has also helped it to gain popularity, since the importance of having “freedom money” has become clearer to political dissidents and the oppressed the world over.

Now that the COVID-19 pandemic has wound down, and the emergency has been declared over, global leaders aim to re-engineer the economy. The initiatives of the Great Reset plan to use CBDCs as instruments of control, in the process creating a post-human society where human beings, as we have known them, cease to exist.

Things are moving fast. Commenting on the development of AI and its potential ramifications for humanity, Jordan Peterson, a prominent Canadian psychologist, said, “We better get our acts together before the giants show up. They are like knocking at the door right now.”

Peterson has talked about how ChatGPT, a large language model (LLM) and advanced conversational chatbot, is already building an increasingly-intelligent system. He described the process whereby, in the next few years, this AI model could extract a model of the world from the entire corpus of language, and use that to create a fully-rendered, photo-realistic animation indistinguishable from the image of a genuine person. By giving an example of turning a virtual girlfriend into a sex partner, he explained how easily it could falsify the representation of reality so completely that we all become confused about what is real and what is not.

And this technology is rapidly advancing. In March 2023, ChatGPT4, the most powerful artificial intelligence, was released. And Bitcoiners are in a unique position to take Peterson’s warning seriously and start doing something about the issues he has raised.

Bitcoin is pro-human technology. It provides a tool for us to detect counterfeit reality and which helps us to authenticate and secure truth, backed by our real human experiences.

Now, digitization of all aspects of society is taking place. From finance to healthcare and education, people are brought to the web to live their lives in a way that disconnects them from their bodies and from the natural environment. This trend leads to “hyper-mechanization,” a term I use to describe the turning point at which machines and robots become dominant in our world, dictating our very experiences.

This force of digitization, now becoming extreme, is also penetrating into the Bitcoin space. From Twitter to Nostr, and more than we are willing to admit, many of us are hooked to the iPhones and computers that keep us plugged into the matrix, becoming cut off from genuine, heart-to-heart interactions with other human beings.

As a machine-takeover of the world increasingly threatens the essence of what it means to be human, it is important for us to learn to unplug ourselves and maintain our relationships to ourselves and to nature. We need to collectively practice being offline from time to time, connecting with one another in real life. It is crucial for us to create a resilient human network of proof of work, built on top of the technology that can authenticate reality, based on our truly-felt feelings.

Experiencing The Power Of Bitcoin, Firsthand

This week, from May 18 to May 20, the biggest Bitcoin conference will take place in Miami Beach, Florida, bringing together Bitcoiners from all over the world. Along with presentations and panels from experts, professionals and leaders in the industry (check the speaker’s list here), this three-day educational event will provide a space for Bitcoiners to gather outside of cyberspace and get to know one another.

From brunches to happy-hour pleb parties, there will be plenty of opportunities for Bitcoiners to hang out. Through our exchanges of smiles and hugs, we can have firsthand experiences that demonstrate the power of bitcoin as the currency of love.

Crucially, the conference will also give us a chance to share our appreciation for artists who have been enriching the Bitcoin space. It will host an art gallery displaying the work of more than 60 talented Bitcoin artists.

There, attendees can meet and interact with these artists in person. Now that AI can whip out sophisticated images in a matter of seconds and mimic our creativity, it becomes vital for us to recognize the value of art created by real human beings who are inspired by their own visions, and engaged in a hard and honest labor of love.

During the first and second general attendance days of Bitcoin 2023 (on May 19 and 20, 2023), the exuberance of Bitcoin competition will be brought to the main exposition hall to ignite a spirit of collaboration and teamwork. Initiated as a community project, the Bitcoin Games will provide a fun and joyful contest where local meetups can match their skills and talents to compete. The winning team will bring home the trophy and one full BTC, which can be used to help develop their community (check here for the details).

From the Bitcoin Bazaar, a massive peer-to-peer marketplace, to the official after party, lots of fun things will be happening throughout the week (check the full agenda here).

Bitcoin is electronic cash backed by human ingenuity. But what powers Bitcoin is our passion and the values that are shared in our hearts. What good is free speech money, if there is no human being who can speak? What is the worth of life, if there is nobody who can feel and experience its fullness?

At Bitcoin 2023, Bitcoiners around the world can come together to work toward hyperbitcoinization, in order to preserve what defines us uniquely as human beings. It presents a festival of humanity.

“Tick tock, next block.”

The countdown has just begun. It’s time to amplify relentless optimism and celebrate the beauty and magnificence that we all are.

This is a guest post by Nozomi Hayase. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

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Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO
A brief excerpt: I’ve argued repeatedly that we would NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened followi…

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Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

A brief excerpt:
I’ve argued repeatedly that we would NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened following the housing bubble). The two key reasons are mortgage lending has been solid, and most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes..
...
And on mortgage rates, here is some data from the FHFA’s National Mortgage Database showing the distribution of interest rates on closed-end, fixed-rate 1-4 family mortgages outstanding at the end of each quarter since Q1 2013 through Q3 2023 (Q4 2023 data will be released in a two weeks).

This shows the surge in the percent of loans under 3%, and also under 4%, starting in early 2020 as mortgage rates declined sharply during the pandemic. Currently 22.6% of loans are under 3%, 59.4% are under 4%, and 78.7% are under 5%.

With substantial equity, and low mortgage rates (mostly at a fixed rates), few homeowners will have financial difficulties.
There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

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‘Bougie Broke’ – The Financial Reality Behind The Facade

‘Bougie Broke’ – The Financial Reality Behind The Facade

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Social media users claiming…

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'Bougie Broke' - The Financial Reality Behind The Facade

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Social media users claiming to be Bougie Broke share pictures of their fancy cars, high-fashion clothing, and selfies in exotic locations and expensive restaurants. Yet they complain about living paycheck to paycheck and lacking the means to support their lifestyle.

Bougie broke is like “keeping up with the Joneses,” spending beyond one’s means to impress others.

Bougie Broke gives us a glimpse into the financial condition of a growing number of consumers. Since personal consumption represents about two-thirds of economic activity, it’s worth diving into the Bougie Broke fad to appreciate if a large subset of the population can continue to consume at current rates.

The Wealth Divide Disclaimer

Forecasting personal consumption is always tricky, but it has become even more challenging in the post-pandemic era. To appreciate why we share a joke told by Mike Green.

Bill Gates and I walk into the bar…

Bartender: “Wow… a couple of billionaires on average!”

Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, and other billionaires make us all much richer, on average. Unfortunately, we can’t use the average to pay our bills.

According to Wikipedia, Bill Gates is one of 756 billionaires living in the United States. Many of these billionaires became much wealthier due to the pandemic as their investment fortunes proliferated.

To appreciate the wealth divide, consider the graph below courtesy of Statista. 1% of the U.S. population holds 30% of the wealth. The wealthiest 10% of households have two-thirds of the wealth. The bottom half of the population accounts for less than 3% of the wealth.

The uber-wealthy grossly distorts consumption and savings data. And, with the sharp increase in their wealth over the past few years, the consumption and savings data are more distorted.

Furthermore, and critical to appreciate, the spending by the wealthy doesn’t fluctuate with the economy. Therefore, the spending of the lower wealth classes drives marginal changes in consumption. As such, the condition of the not-so-wealthy is most important for forecasting changes in consumption.

Revenge Spending

Deciphering personal data has also become more difficult because our spending habits have changed due to the pandemic.

A great example is revenge spending. Per the New York Times:

Ola Majekodunmi, the founder of All Things Money, a finance site for young adults, explained revenge spending as expenditures meant to make up for “lost time” after an event like the pandemic.

So, between the growing wealth divide and irregular spending habits, let’s quantify personal savings, debt usage, and real wages to appreciate better if Bougie Broke is a mass movement or a silly meme.

The Means To Consume 

Savings, debt, and wages are the three primary sources that give consumers the ability to consume.

Savings

The graph below shows the rollercoaster on which personal savings have been since the pandemic. The savings rate is hovering at the lowest rate since those seen before the 2008 recession. The total amount of personal savings is back to 2017 levels. But, on an inflation-adjusted basis, it’s at 10-year lows. On average, most consumers are drawing down their savings or less. Given that wages are increasing and unemployment is historically low, they must be consuming more.

Now, strip out the savings of the uber-wealthy, and it’s probable that the amount of personal savings for much of the population is negligible. A survey by Payroll.org estimates that 78% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck.

More on Insufficient Savings

The Fed’s latest, albeit old, Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households from June 2023 claims that over a third of households do not have enough savings to cover an unexpected $400 expense. We venture to guess that number has grown since then. To wit, the number of households with essentially no savings rose 5% from their prior report a year earlier.  

Relatively small, unexpected expenses, such as a car repair or a modest medical bill, can be a hardship for many families. When faced with a hypothetical expense of $400, 63 percent of all adults in 2022 said they would have covered it exclusively using cash, savings, or a credit card paid off at the next statement (referred to, altogether, as “cash or its equivalent”). The remainder said they would have paid by borrowing or selling something or said they would not have been able to cover the expense.

Debt

After periods where consumers drained their existing savings and/or devoted less of their paychecks to savings, they either slowed their consumption patterns or borrowed to keep them up. Currently, it seems like many are choosing the latter option. Consumer borrowing is accelerating at a quicker pace than it was before the pandemic. 

The first graph below shows outstanding credit card debt fell during the pandemic as the economy cratered. However, after multiple stimulus checks and broad-based economic recovery, consumer confidence rose, and with it, credit card balances surged.

The current trend is steeper than the pre-pandemic trend. Some may be a catch-up, but the current rate is unsustainable. Consequently, borrowing will likely slow down to its pre-pandemic trend or even below it as consumers deal with higher credit card balances and 20+% interest rates on the debt.

The second graph shows that since 2022, credit card balances have grown faster than our incomes. Like the first graph, the credit usage versus income trend is unsustainable, especially with current interest rates.

With many consumers maxing out their credit cards, is it any wonder buy-now-pay-later loans (BNPL) are increasing rapidly?

Insider Intelligence believes that 79 million Americans, or a quarter of those over 18 years old, use BNPL. Lending Tree claims that “nearly 1 in 3 consumers (31%) say they’re at least considering using a buy now, pay later (BNPL) loan this month.”More tellingaccording to their survey, only 52% of those asked are confident they can pay off their BNPL loan without missing a payment!

Wage Growth

Wages have been growing above trend since the pandemic. Since 2022, the average annual growth in compensation has been 6.28%. Higher incomes support more consumption, but higher prices reduce the amount of goods or services one can buy. Over the same period, real compensation has grown by less than half a percent annually. The average real compensation growth was 2.30% during the three years before the pandemic.

In other words, compensation is just keeping up with inflation instead of outpacing it and providing consumers with the ability to consume, save, or pay down debt.

It’s All About Employment

The unemployment rate is 3.9%, up slightly from recent lows but still among the lowest rates in the last seventy-five years.

The uptick in credit card usage, decline in savings, and the savings rate argue that consumers are slowly running out of room to keep consuming at their current pace.

However, the most significant means by which we consume is income. If the unemployment rate stays low, consumption may moderate. But, if the recent uptick in unemployment continues, a recession is extremely likely, as we have seen every time it turned higher.

It’s not just those losing jobs that consume less. Of greater impact is a loss of confidence by those employed when they see friends or neighbors being laid off.   

Accordingly, the labor market is probably the most important leading indicator of consumption and of the ability of the Bougie Broke to continue to be Bougie instead of flat-out broke!

Summary

There are always consumers living above their means. This is often harmless until their means decline or disappear. The Bougie Broke meme and the ability social media gives consumers to flaunt their “wealth” is a new medium for an age-old message.

Diving into the data, it argues that consumption will likely slow in the coming months. Such would allow some consumers to save and whittle down their debt. That situation would be healthy and unlikely to cause a recession.

The potential for the unemployment rate to continue higher is of much greater concern. The combination of a higher unemployment rate and strapped consumers could accentuate a recession.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/13/2024 - 09:25

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The most potent labor market indicator of all is still strongly positive

  – by New Deal democratOn Monday I examined some series from last Friday’s Household survey in the jobs report, highlighting that they more frequently…

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 - by New Deal democrat


On Monday I examined some series from last Friday’s Household survey in the jobs report, highlighting that they more frequently than not indicated a recession was near or underway. But I concluded by noting that this survey has historically been noisy, and I thought it would be resolved away this time. Specifically, there was strong contrary data from the Establishment survey, backed up by yesterday’s inflation report, to the contrary. Today I’ll examine that, looking at two other series.


Historically, as economic expansions progress and the unemployment rate goes down, average hourly wages for nonsupervisory workers improve at an increasing rate (blue in the graph below). But eventually, inflation (red) picks up and overtakes that wage growth, and a recession occurs shortly thereafter. Not always, as we’ll see in the graph below, but usually:



As you can see, there have been a number of exceptions to the rule, chiefly where inflation outstripped wage growth, but no recession happened anyway. Typically this has occurred because of the entry of so many more people (like women in the 1980s and early 1990s) into the labor force.

And we certainly see that inflation outstripped wages in 2022, not coincidentally when there were several negative quarters of real GDP. But with the decline in gas prices, in 2023 inflation subsided much more sharply than wage growth, and the economy improved more substantially. That has remained the case in the first two months of 2024.

But an even more potent indicator is one I have come to rely on even more: real aggregate payrolls for nonsupervisory workers. Here’s its historical record up until the pandemic:



There’s not a single false positive, nor a single false negative. If YoY aggregate payroll growth is stronger than YoY inflation, you’re in an expansion. If it’s weaker, you’re in a recession. Period.

And here is its record since the pandemic:



Real aggregate nonsurpervisory payrolls are positive, and they got more positive in 2023 compared with 2022. Currently they are 2.6% higher YoY than inflation.

In addition to the YoY comparison, real aggregate nonsupervisory payrolls have always declined, at least slightly, from their expansion peaks before every single recession in the past 50 years except for when the pandemic suddenly shut down the economy:



Not every slight decline means a recession is coming. But if real aggregate payrolls are at a new high, you’re not in a recession, and one isn’t likely to occur in the next 6 months, either.

And in case it isn’t clear from that long term graph, here’s the short term graph of the same thing:



Real aggregate nonsupervisory payrolls made a new all-time high in February. Despite the negative metrics in the Household survey, this is *very* potent evidence that not only are we not in a recession, but one isn’t likely in the immediate future either.


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