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Bitcoin 2022 — Will the real maximalists please stand up?

As I go about the Miami conference, I wonder, Aside from some of the conference speakers, where are these Bitcoin maximalists I keep hearing so much about?When…

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As I go about the Miami conference, I wonder, Aside from some of the conference speakers, where are these Bitcoin maximalists I keep hearing so much about?

When I tell the customs official Im going to Miami for the Bitcoin 2022 conference, there seems to be a light in the mans eyes. He peppers me with questions, even though Id gotten up at 5 am that day to fly, and my smartwatch is telling me that my energy levels are only at 70%. The customs official has way more interest in the subject than I can handle.

Why am I going to the conference? The philosophy of the event fascinates me its a Bitcoin-only conference with the divide between Bitcoin and the rest of the cryptocurrency world growing year by year.

I dont go into that much detail with the customs official, though. Sometimes, when I interact with too many crypto people, I forget that everyone else has paid so little attention to this space, they still use the terms Bitcoin and cryptocurrency synonymously. If I offload onto the customs official everything thats on my mind, hed probably think Im autistic or drunk (or maybe both).

 

 

Bitcoin 2022
For a conference aimed at Bitcoin Maxis, the crowd seemed pretty comfortable with crypto.

 

 

Florida state of mind

Ive always found Miami strange, but not in a bad way. Florida is known for the Florida Man meme all the wild and wacky stuff happening in the Sunshine State like the naked man downtown who bit off someones face in 2012. But thats largely because of Floridas strong information-transparency laws. As a fellow journalist, I dream about this sometimes. Where Im from, Canada, we have to fight twice as hard for half the disclosure. Florida is brash and loud because its open. In a way, Florida is America.

 

 

 

Indeed, writing in The Globe and Mail newspaper, journalist David Shribman would later say that the American center used to be California, which gave the world the movie theatre, skateboards and the linguistic filler like. Now, Shribman writes, Americas center is Florida. The state is the home of former-President Donald Trump, but it used to be governed by the moderate Jeb Bush in a way encapsulating the transformation of American conservatism of the last decade. Florida is home to the Stand Your Ground self-defense law, the rebellion against COVID-19 mask mandates and, of course, Disneyland. No wonder this libertarian fantasy world is attracting Bitcoiners and the tech elite.

Out of California and into Florida, PayPals Peter Thiel has made the move. So has another member of the so-called PayPal Mafia, the venture capitalist Keith Rabois. Elon Musk, too, has a SpaceX launch site in Florida, and Cathie Woods Ark Invest has moved to the state as well. Somewhere in there is also why Bitcoin 2022, the Bitcoin-only conference that excludes other cryptocurrencies, has come to this state.

Note how so many of these tech people moving to Florida are also Bitcoin people not just in the eyes of the mainstream who use Bitcoin and cryptocurrency interchangeably, but Bitcoin-only Bitcoin people. Thiel and Wood were both listed as speakers at Bitcoin 2022. Perhaps thats only natural.

 

 

 

 

During the conference, one of its hosts Natalie Brunell, speaking on the venture capitalist Anthony Pomplianos podcast, says Bitcoin represents the American Dream, with its ethos of self-determination, freedom, the idea of creating a better life for your family. But its not just that. That reputation of the Bitcoin-only folks often called maximalists is much like that of the new America that Florida has come to represent. Its loud. Its big on individual liberties. The open blockchain is transparent to a fault. Thus, Bitcoin is Florida.

 

 

 

 

Or, at least, thats one idea. On a different episode of the same Pompliano podcast, an enlightening statistic is brought up: 83% of those who own Bitcoin also own another cryptocurrency. For all of Bitcoins distinctness and how its identity is separate from the rest of crypto, that does not seem to extend to its holders. As I go about this Bitcoin-only event in the heart of this new America, I would wonder, How organic, really, is this maximalism sentiment running through it all?

 

 

Stacks community event at Bitcoin Unleashed. Source: Twitter

 

 

Bitcoin to the max

Its hardly a controversial thought to say that other cryptocurrencies cannot be truly compared to Bitcoin because they are not sufficiently decentralized and decentralization is the entire point of the first cryptocurrency. Nor is it outlandish to say that most of the tens of thousands of alternative coins and random blockchain projects are either scams or, to put it politely, overly ambitious. But Bitcoin maximalists have been criticized for taking that idea up a notch.

On the second day of the conference, there is a zinger thrown during the panel called Wartime Bitcoin. The moderator asks what the biggest attack on Bitcoin is. Aleks Svetski, an Australian entrepreneur and author of a book on individual liberties, isnt first in line to speak. But he seemingly gets invigorated by the question. Svetski gestures at the moderator and another speaker. Let me go first, please, he says. Svetski speaks with his hands:

The attack is cryptocurrency. Thats the fucking attack.

 

 

 

 

The crowd cheers. Or, at least, some people do. I can hear the hoots. That is indeed quite clever, I think to myself as I watch Svetski. Hefurther explains his thinking:

The easiest way to Trojan Horse everyone is to pretend like youre building something technically and architecturally similar [to Bitcoin] and add a fucking wonderboy and then roll it out to the lemmings.

Such rhetoric, though those who disagree with it, disagree strongly. As the conference goes on, widely followed Twitter account Autism Capital tweets, We find it incredibly interesting how the majority of the talks at Bitcoin Miami are people justifying Bitcoin against Ethereum. Its not a conference, its a sermon.

 

 

 

 

Indeed, at Bitcoin 2021, the boxer Floyd Mayweather Jr. was booed when he showed up promoting an Ethereum-based project. Mayweather obviously didnt do a good job of reading the room. And the boos were perhaps justified, given what happened to the

Ethereum Max token he was promoting to the outside world. But what was on display at Bitcoin 2021 bordered on the religious. A Rolling Stone article on the event was headlined Welcome to the Church of Bitcoin.

But I didnt go to Bitcoin 2021. I only read about it. In person, at Bitcoin 2022, there was much less of that image of Bitcoin maximalism than I expected. Aside from the conference speakers and, I guess, the guys who cheered Svetski, whom I didnt really see, I would meet very few people who are actual Bitcoin maximalists. In fact, walking in and out of the formal talks and the rest of the conference, it seems as if I am stepping into different worlds.

 

 

 

 

Four days in Miami

The conference at the Miami Beach Exhibition Center is altogether four days, with the first being reserved for industry, the second and third for general admission, and the fourth for a music event called the Sound Money Fest.

The way the conference is structured is that there are a few big rooms with stages for the formal events such as the talks, and while those are going on, there is a massive exhibition floor with hundreds of booths by various companies and organizations. There are also quite a few bars strewn around the place.

Everywhere, there are a lot of spectacles around aside from the celebrity speakers like Jordan Peterson and Serena Williams. There is a cyborg bull statue outside mimicking the golden one that stands on Wall Street. Inside, on the exhibition floor, there is another bull that you can ride, a mechanical one operated by the exchange Bullish. The person who lasts the longest at the conference would win a whole Bitcoin.

 

 

 

 

The exhibition hall also has a Bitcoin volcano, referencing geothermal powered Bitcoin mining in El Salvador, and beside it is a stage with a table set up like at the sports network ESPN. Various personalities would sit around that table throughout the day and give their hot takes.

I spend part of my first day in the exhibition hall trying to look for the booth of this Ukrainian mining pool Hiveon. A publicist reached out to me earlier and said a lot about the companys involvement in the ongoing war with Russia Ukraine raised more than $100 million in crypto. I found that link fascinating, how crypto found its way into this big geopolitics conversation. Much of that was based on Ethereum, however, not Bitcoin.

To give you an idea of how big the exhibition hall is, though, and how absurdly bustling with activity it is, I never really end up finding the company.

 

 

 

 

With 20,000 people from around the world descending on Miami Beach, all the celebrity speakers, the global media attention its hard to believe all of that came out of a white paper by a pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto 13 years ago.

Its easy to see, though, that certain diffusion that happens as all ideas take hold. As Bitcoin grew, the border between it and the wider world blurred when it became more mainstream, it also became more mainstream.

Crypto used to be synonymous with Bitcoin because there were no other coins. It was all about peer-to-peer money that cant be controlled by any one party. When more people paid attention to it, they as much started to become influenced by that idea as they started to influence that idea. The result is the tens of thousands of different coins, the Ethereum network and its clones and competitors, the pictures of apes selling for hundreds of thousands, the blockchain movement hoping to tap the technology but not the coin, and the scams and the hacks. That is the term crypto as we know it today.

 

 

 

 

At the core of it all, theres still that Bitcoin-only movement, still focused on that singular original idea of peer-to-peer digital money. But they seem to be getting drowned out. Even at this conference that is ostensibly all about Bitcoin maximalism, the exhibition hall is flush with the sort of crypto companies that the speaker Svetski would call the biggest attack on Bitcoin.

The Ukrainian mining pool Hiveon, for example, whose booth I eventually later found, is for Ethereum. Some at the conference are openly selling NFTs. A writer for The Defiant, a DeFi publication, even says, I see signs that DeFi is taking root in the heart of Bitcoin. As I go about the exhibition hall, I ask myself, Aside from some of the conference speakers, where are all these Bitcoin maximalists I keep hearing so much about?

Much later, I get somewhat of an answer. At the conference, I ran into a team from the media company WGMI Studios that has been going around interviewing attendees. Among the questions it asked is Bitcoin or Ethereum? They later compiled the results for me. Out of 298 people, even at this Bitcoin-only conference, 22% said Ethereum, and 11% said both. One of the WGMI studios guys, Nathan Espinosa, tells me later: We also asked people, NFTs, yes or no? toward the end of the event It was quite interesting to see how [even some of who] chose Bitcoin and talked down Ethereum still supported NFTs.

 

 

 

 

More bull

On the third day, I see the mechanical bull again, the one on the expo floor that anyone can try to ride to win a Bitcoin. I quickly Google the tips and tricks on how to ride a mechanical bull and sign up. How hard can riding a mechanical bull be? I last four seconds.

I turn to less-physical pursuits after that. I play Lightning chess where players have only about five minutes to make all of their movies. I lost two games and won two games, which I think is a respectable finish.

What I truly gain from that chess experience, though, is a spreadsheet of all the side-parties going on that an opponent gave me. Among the 32 events on just the third conference day, there is a yacht party or two and a beach event by Maxim magazine just to give you an idea of what was on offer.

 

 

Bitmex at Bitcoin 2022
BitMEX took this pic at Bitcoin 2022. Looks nice, needs more adoption. Source: Twitter

 

 

ETHMiamis party is, unfortunately, miserable with under a dozen people. I am there for no more than 10 minutes before chugging my beer and walking out.

A much better party and one with an open bar seems to be one by this outfit called Bad Bitch Empire, which bills itself as a private crypto investment club for ambitious women. Yet the promised free drinks turn out to be a mirage, and there are way too many people all squeezed shoulder to shoulder on a tiny rooftop patio.

I go around asking people about my observation, that, somehow, at this Bitcoin-only conference, Ive encountered so few Bitcoin maximalists. A man who works at a Bitcoin ATM provider tells me he feels the maximalists are vocal but not necessarily in the majority. Where are the maxis at the conference? I dont know, but I see them only on Twitter, he tells me. Everyone seems to agree with my observation.

 

 

 

 

I also bump into someone from SpaceX, but it turned out he wasnt an attendee at Bitcoin 2022. In fact, quite few people at those side-parties were, and thats what strikes me. One sullen British guy, who works at a crypto hedge fund, tells me that the conference is not the point. Its the meetings you have with all the people who are in town, he says.

I guess he has a point. The conference talks are streamed online anyway. If youre solely after the information presented, you dont even need to leave your bedroom. Its the human connection with the hordes of other crypto folks all in one place that is the real point of such events. So, why pay $1,099 if you can just hobnob for free at the side parties?

That night at the Bad Bitch Empire event, Bitcoin 2022 itself doesnt really stand out among the dozens of crypto events going on around it the Maxim beach party, the yacht gatherings, even that little ETHMiami gathering, as unspectacular as it was. Its kind of like how, at the conference itself, its theme of Bitcoin maximalism seemed so lost among the wider crypto presence even if, without Bitcoin 2022, there would have been none of these side events promising free drinks.

 

 

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The final hours

On the last day, at the Sound Money Music Festival that is to cap off the conference, I speak to a trio of friends who are the absolute opposite of Bitcoin maximalists. One of them, a graphic designer who has gone into NFTs, an artist who goes by WHUT, proudly tells me that he holds no Bitcoin at all.

When I press him, he says, I have, but it is like a fraction. It doesnt really make sense to even speak about it. But I do have my bag in Tezos is pretty heavy. I own like over 70 NFTs. As an artist, he says, thats what he gravitated toward. He adds that all the altcoins have advanced the crypto mission that began with Bitcoin.

Another among the trio, a recording artist named Cassius Cuve, says:

Mass adoption by way of Web3 is by NFTs. Artists are driving the adoption… You cant have Web3 with only Bitcoin, basically.

Whatever you make of their view, you cant dispute that these guys believe it, and theyre not alone among the thousands of attendees of what is supposed to be a Bitcoin-only conference.

It might seem, on the surface, that the conclusion to draw would be that this Bitcoin-only conference is becoming pointless. But the other perspective is that the very existence of all these non-maximalists validates this conferences purpose. Whats the point, after all, of spreading maximalism if everyone is already a maximalist? Maybe the hordes of non-maximalist crypto people of the past days are exactly the sort of attendees the Bitcoin 2022 organizers want.

 

 

 

 

Crypto once meant Bitcoin. Now crypto has grown to become not only a world of which Bitcoin is only a small part, but also one which Bitcoin doesnt really want to belong. To some, thats a natural progression. To others, its a perversion. But to everyone, its a process that is plainly happening. Therein must lie the true raison dtre of the conference, its reason for being what it is: to counter that rising tide, to play the yang to the growing yin.

Its hard to say how successful that mission statement is, but like how people say any publicity is good publicity, what matters in any endeavor isnt so much how far you go but that you take a little step each day and do not stop. Exposing all those thousands of crypto folks to maximalist thought maybe that in itself is a victory.

 

 

 

 

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Airline, travel companies face Chapter 11 bankruptcy, default risk

New data from Creditsafe shows that three big-name brands face significant cash issues.

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It's actually fairly rare that a company files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy without throwing off signs that it's in deep financial trouble. Observant customers sometimes see the signs.

You might notice lower staffing levels or poor inventory in a retail setting. Restaurants facing financial troubles might drop the quality of their ingredients, cut portion sizes, or find other ways to cut corners.

Related: Fast-food chain closes restaurants after Chapter 11 bankruptcy

It's generally impossible to cut your way to a good financial position unless you were making huge mistakes in the first place. A company might find some savings by examining its operations and focuing on waste in areas customers don't see, but giving people less almost never works.

In many businesses, especially when companies are publicly traded, signs of upcoming financial trouble are obvious. 

Public companies have to report their financial results and when there's more money going out than coming in, and cash balances get low, observant analysts can see a company likely to default on its bills that may be headed for bankruptcy well before it happens.

CreditSafe Head of Brand Ragini Bhalla recently shared her company's Financial & Bankruptcy Outlook: Transportation Report and some comments on it with TheStreet. 

The report shows that three big-name companies in the travel/transportation space are facing significant financial risk, which is reflected in their stock prices. Bhalla gave some color as to why companies in those markets are struggling.

Air travel has bounced back from the covid pandemic.

Image source: Shutterstock

The transportation industry faces a crisis  

Bhalla shared her thoughts on what Creditsafe found.

"We are reflecting on the current challenges faced by transportation companies and the total industry outlook. During the pandemic, M&A activity in the industry soared, as transportation players and investors made deals to extend capabilities and acquire high-performing assets. To that end, deal values soared from $51 billion in 2020 to more than $150 billion in 2021, before it dipped to $95 billion in 2022," she said in an email to TheStreet.

Bhalla said she sees a different pattern in 2024.

"While M&A activity in the transportation industry cooled down in 2023, industry insiders are projecting that 2024 will be the year of consolidation. If that’s the case, then it will be more important than ever for both sides (sellers and buyers) to do their due diligence," she wrote.

Not every company that would benefit from being acquired will survive the M&A scrutiny.

"This should include various elements, such as running business credit checks on potential acquisitions to make sure they would be a good investment and aren’t in dire financial straits. It should also include running comprehensive compliance checks to make sure potential acquisitions aren’t violating sanctions, haven’t been convicted of regulatory violations, and aren’t involved in unethical practices like bribery, corruption, fraud, and the use of child/forced labor," she added.

One airline, two rental cars are at risk

Spirit Airlines  (SAVE) has been on unofficial bankruptcy watch since the company's merger with JetBlue  (JBLU)  fell apart. There are real questions as to whether the super-low-cost airline model works, and Creditsafe sees a real risk of the airline ending up filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

"Earlier this year, Spirit Airlines said it was looking to refinance its debt and hopes to refinance $1.1 billion of debt due in 2025," according to Creditsafe. "To make matters worse, the airline doesn’t have a stable track record of paying bills on time."

Not paying bills on time is often a sign that a company is running out of cash.

"Late payments increased over several months in 2023. For example, the number of late payments (1-30 days) rose from 7.00% in September 2023 to 30.87% in October 2023. A similar pattern occurred soon after when the number of late payments (1-30 days) rose from 6.37% in November 2023 to 30.54% in December 2023 and then again to 51.08% in January 2024," Creditsafe data showed.

Investors are shying from the stock. Shares were at $4.29 down 73.8% on the year as of Friday.

Two rental car companies, Avis Budget Group  (CAR) and Hertz (HTZ) are facing similar woes.

"Avis Budget Group's long-term debt has consistently increased for the last three years, and how late the company paid its bills spiked drastically from 8 days late in March to 31 days in April and remained high until September 2023," Creditsafe shared.

Hertz has been following a similar path.

"The company’s number of delinquent payments (91+ days) increased consistently during the second half of 2023. For instance, the number of delinquent payments (91+ days) rose from 4.64% in August to 6.90% in September, then rose again to 10.73% in October 2023, indicating it is having trouble paying its bills," according to Creditsafe.

Avis Budget closed Friday at $107.70 and are down 39.2% this year. Hertz finished Friday at $7.58, down 25.7% on the year.

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AI vs. elections: 4 essential reads about the threat of high-tech deception in politics

Using disinformation to sway elections is nothing new. Powerful new AI tools, however, threaten to give the deceptions unprecedented reach.

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Like it or not, AI is already playing a role in the 2024 presidential election. kirstypargeter/iStock via Getty Images

It’s official. Joe Biden and Donald Trump have secured the necessary delegates to be their parties’ nominees for president in the 2024 election. Barring unforeseen events, the two will be formally nominated at the party conventions this summer and face off at the ballot box on Nov. 5.

It’s a safe bet that, as in recent elections, this one will play out largely online and feature a potent blend of news and disinformation delivered over social media. New this year are powerful generative artificial intelligence tools such as ChatGPT and Sora that make it easier to “flood the zone” with propaganda and disinformation and produce convincing deepfakes: words coming from the mouths of politicians that they did not actually say and events replaying before our eyes that did not actually happen.

The result is an increased likelihood of voters being deceived and, perhaps as worrisome, a growing sense that you can’t trust anything you see online. Trump is already taking advantage of the so-called liar’s dividend, the opportunity to discount your actual words and deeds as deepfakes. Trump implied on his Truth Social platform on March 12, 2024, that real videos of him shown by Democratic House members were produced or altered using artificial intelligence.

The Conversation has been covering the latest developments in artificial intelligence that have the potential to undermine democracy. The following is a roundup of some of those articles from our archive.

1. Fake events

The ability to use AI to make convincing fakes is particularly troublesome for producing false evidence of events that never happened. Rochester Institute of Technology computer security researcher Christopher Schwartz has dubbed these situation deepfakes.

“The basic idea and technology of a situation deepfake are the same as with any other deepfake, but with a bolder ambition: to manipulate a real event or invent one from thin air,” he wrote.

Situation deepfakes could be used to boost or undermine a candidate or suppress voter turnout. If you encounter reports on social media of events that are surprising or extraordinary, try to learn more about them from reliable sources, such as fact-checked news reports, peer-reviewed academic articles or interviews with credentialed experts, Schwartz said. Also, recognize that deepfakes can take advantage of what you are inclined to believe.


Read more: Events that never happened could influence the 2024 presidential election – a cybersecurity researcher explains situation deepfakes


How AI puts disinformation on steroids.

2. Russia, China and Iran take aim

From the question of what AI-generated disinformation can do follows the question of who has been wielding it. Today’s AI tools put the capacity to produce disinformation in reach for most people, but of particular concern are nations that are adversaries of the United States and other democracies. In particular, Russia, China and Iran have extensive experience with disinformation campaigns and technology.

“There’s a lot more to running a disinformation campaign than generating content,” wrote security expert and Harvard Kennedy School lecturer Bruce Schneier. “The hard part is distribution. A propagandist needs a series of fake accounts on which to post, and others to boost it into the mainstream where it can go viral.”

Russia and China have a history of testing disinformation campaigns on smaller countries, according to Schneier. “Countering new disinformation campaigns requires being able to recognize them, and recognizing them requires looking for and cataloging them now,” he wrote.


Read more: AI disinformation is a threat to elections − learning to spot Russian, Chinese and Iranian meddling in other countries can help the US prepare for 2024


3. Healthy skepticism

But it doesn’t require the resources of shadowy intelligence services in powerful nations to make headlines, as the New Hampshire fake Biden robocall produced and disseminated by two individuals and aimed at dissuading some voters illustrates. That episode prompted the Federal Communications Commission to ban robocalls that use voices generated by artificial intelligence.

AI-powered disinformation campaigns are difficult to counter because they can be delivered over different channels, including robocalls, social media, email, text message and websites, which complicates the digital forensics of tracking down the sources of the disinformation, wrote Joan Donovan, a media and disinformation scholar at Boston University.

“In many ways, AI-enhanced disinformation such as the New Hampshire robocall poses the same problems as every other form of disinformation,” Donovan wrote. “People who use AI to disrupt elections are likely to do what they can to hide their tracks, which is why it’s necessary for the public to remain skeptical about claims that do not come from verified sources, such as local TV news or social media accounts of reputable news organizations.”


Read more: FCC bans robocalls using deepfake voice clones − but AI-generated disinformation still looms over elections


How to spot AI-generated images.

4. A new kind of political machine

AI-powered disinformation campaigns are also difficult to counter because they can include bots – automated social media accounts that pose as real people – and can include online interactions tailored to individuals, potentially over the course of an election and potentially with millions of people.

Harvard political scientist Archon Fung and legal scholar Lawrence Lessig described these capabilities and laid out a hypothetical scenario of national political campaigns wielding these powerful tools.

Attempts to block these machines could run afoul of the free speech protections of the First Amendment, according to Fung and Lessig. “One constitutionally safer, if smaller, step, already adopted in part by European internet regulators and in California, is to prohibit bots from passing themselves off as people,” they wrote. “For example, regulation might require that campaign messages come with disclaimers when the content they contain is generated by machines rather than humans.”


Read more: How AI could take over elections – and undermine democracy


This story is a roundup of articles from The Conversation’s archives.


This article is part of Disinformation 2024: a series examining the science, technology and politics of deception in elections.

You may also be interested in:

Disinformation is rampant on social media – a social psychologist explains the tactics used against you

Misinformation, disinformation and hoaxes: What’s the difference?

Disinformation campaigns are murky blends of truth, lies and sincere beliefs – lessons from the pandemic


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Free school meals for all may reduce childhood obesity, while easing financial and logistical burdens for families and schools

Since nutrition standards were strengthened in 2010, eating at school provides many students better diet quality compared with other major U.S. food s…

School meal waivers that started with the COVID-19 pandemic stopped with the end of the public health emergency. Jonathan Wiggs/The Boston Globe via Getty Images

School meals are critical to child health. Research has shown that school meals can be more nutritious than meals from other sources, such as meals brought from home.

A recent study that one of us conducted found the quality of school meals has steadily improved, especially since the 2010 Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act strengthened nutrition standards for school meals. In fact, by 2017, another study found that school meals provided the best diet quality of any major U.S. food source.

Many American families became familiar with universal free school meals during the COVID-19 pandemic. To ease the financial and logistical burdens of the pandemic on families and schools, the U.S. Department of Agriculture issued waivers that allowed schools nationwide to provide free breakfast and lunch to all students. However, these waivers expired by the 2022-23 school year.

Since that time, there has been a substantial increase in schools participating in the Community Eligibility Provision, a federal policy that allows schools in high poverty areas to provide free breakfast and lunch to all attending students. The policy became available as an option for low-income schools nationwide in 2014 and was part of the Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act. By the 2022-23 school year, over 40,000 schools had adopted the Community Eligibility Provision, an increase of more than 20% over the prior year.

Many families felt stressed when a federal program providing free school meals during the pandemic came to an end.

We are public health researchers who study the health effects of nutrition-related policies, particularly those that alleviate poverty. Our newly published research found that the Community Eligibility Provision was associated with a net reduction in the prevalence of childhood obesity.

Improving the health of American children

President Harry Truman established the National School Lunch Program in 1946, with the stated goal of protecting the health and well-being of American children. The program established permanent federal funding for school lunches, and participating schools were required to provide free or reduced-price lunches to children from qualifying households. Eligibility is determined by income based on federal poverty levels, both of which are revised annually.

In 1966, the Child Nutrition Act piloted the School Breakfast Program, which provides free, reduced-price and full-price breakfasts to students. This program was later made permanent through an amendment in 1975.

The Community Eligibility Provision was piloted in several states beginning in 2011 and became an option for eligible schools nationwide beginning in 2014. It operates through the national school lunch and school breakfast programs and expands on these programs.

Gloved hand placing cheese slices on bun slices
Various federal and state programs have sought to make food more accessible to children. John Moore/Getty Images

The policy allows all students in a school to receive free breakfast and lunch, rather than determine eligibility by individual households. Entire schools or school districts are eligible for free lunches if at least 40% of their students are directly certified to receive free meals, meaning their household participated in a means-based safety net program, such as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or the child is identified as runaway, homeless, in foster care or enrolled in Head Start. Some states also use Medicaid for direct certification.

The Community Eligibility Provision increases school meal participation by reducing the stigma associated with receiving free meals, eliminating the need to complete and process applications and extending access to students in households with incomes above the eligibility threshold for free meals. As of 2023, the eligibility threshold for free meals is 130% of the federal poverty level, which amounts to US$39,000 for a family of four.

Universal free meals and obesity

We analyzed whether providing universal free meals at school through the Community Eligibility Provision was associated with lower childhood obesity before the COVID-19 pandemic.

To do this, we measured changes in obesity prevalence from 2013 to 2019 among 3,531 low-income California schools. We used over 3.5 million body mass index measurements of students in fifth, seventh and ninth grade that were taken annually and aggregated at the school level. To ensure rigorous results, we accounted for differences between schools that adopted the policy and eligible schools that did not. We also followed the same schools over time, comparing obesity prevalence before and after the policy.

Child scooping food from salad bar onto a tray; other children lean against the wall
Free school meals may help reduce health disparities among marginalized and low-income children. Whitney Hayward/Portland Portland Press Herald via Getty Images

We found that schools participating in the Community Eligibility Provision had a 2.4% relative reduction in obesity prevalence compared with eligible schools that did not participate in the provision. Although our findings are modest, even small improvements in obesity levels are notable because effective strategies to reduce obesity at a population level remain elusive. Additionally, because obesity disproportionately affects racially and ethnically marginalized and low-income children, this policy could contribute to reducing health disparities.

The Community Eligibility Provision likely reduces obesity prevalence by substituting up to half of a child’s weekly diet with healthier options and simultaneously freeing up more disposable income for low-to-middle-income families. Families receiving free breakfast and lunch save approximately $4.70 per day per child, or $850 per year. For low-income families, particularly those with multiple school-age children, this could result in meaningful savings that families can use for other health-promoting goods or services.

Expanding access to school meals

Childhood obesity has been increasing over the past several decades. Obesity often continues into adulthood and is linked to a range of chronic health conditions and premature death.

Growing research is showing the benefits of universal free school meals for the health and well-being of children. Along with our study of California schools, other researchers have found an association between universal free school meals and reduced obesity in Chile, South Korea and England, as well as among New York City schools and school districts in New York state.

Studies have also linked the Community Eligibility Provision to improvements in academic performance and reductions in suspensions.

While our research observed a reduction in the prevalence of obesity among schools participating in the Community Eligibility Provision relative to schools that did not, obesity increased over time in both groups, with a greater increase among nonparticipating schools.

Universal free meals policies may slow the rise in childhood obesity rates, but they alone will not be sufficient to reverse these trends. Alongside universal free meals, identifying other population-level strategies to reduce obesity among children is necessary to address this public health issue.

As of 2023, several states have implemented their own universal free school meals policies. States such as California, Maine, Colorado, Minnesota and New Mexico have pledged to cover the difference between school meal expenditures and federal reimbursements. As more states adopt their own universal free meals policies, understanding their effects on child health and well-being, as well as barriers and supports to successfully implementing these programs, will be critical.

Jessica Jones-Smith receives funding from the National Institutes of Health.

Anna Localio does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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