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‘Bigger Than COVID Or Pronouns’ – Tucker Carlson & Peter Schiff Discuss Worst Inflation In US History

‘Bigger Than COVID Or Pronouns’ – Tucker Carlson & Peter Schiff Discuss Worst Inflation In US History


In November, the official government CPI rose by the highest annual amount since 1982. But for the most part, the..



'Bigger Than COVID Or Pronouns' - Tucker Carlson & Peter Schiff Discuss Worst Inflation In US History


In November, the official government CPI rose by the highest annual amount since 1982. But for the most part, the mainstream media continues to sugar-coat inflation. Tucker Carlson is an exception. He’s one mainstream media figure who seems to grasp the full extent of the problem. He recently interviewed Peter Schiff on the rising cost of living.

Carlson opened up the interview pointing out that it’s very obvious the inflation rate is not 7%. It’s much higher than that and it costs more than 7% more to live in the US than it did last year. Why is this not front-page news everywhere?

Peter said it’s because the government, Wall Street and the Federal Reserve all have a vested interest in keeping the public from understanding how bad inflation is.

In fact, one of the ways the Fed has been able to justify creating more inflation is because they claimed we didn’t have enough of it. But the only reason we didn’t have enough of it is because they were relying on their own highly rigged CPI.”

As Peter pointed out, the CPI wasn’t always this dishonest. The government changed the CPI calculation in the 1990s in order to understate the actual cost of living.

When they compare our inflation rates to the inflation of the 1970s, we’re not using the same CPI that we used then.”

The annualized rate of inflation in 2021 based on the CPI stands at 7.3%.

If we were using the same CPI we used in 1982, the rate would be closer to 15%, which means it’s the worst year in inflation in US history.”

The previous high water mark for inflation was 13.5% in 1980.

Carlson raises another poignant question. Why isn’t anybody punished for this “crime?” How is it that the people who destroy the US dollar seem to be getting away with it?

In fact, they often get rewarded as Peter pointed out. Jerome Powell just got nominated for a second term as Fed chair, “as if he did such a great job on his first term.”

This is the only way the government can finance all the spending. You have the Democrats now promising all sorts of stuff for nothing. We’re going to get free preschool. Everybody is going to get paid family medical leave. And no one’s going to have to pay for it. Nobody’s taxes are going up. We’re paying for it through inflation because the money to pay for all this government is being printed into existence and then it’s spent into circulation. And as it’s spent into circulation, it’s driving up prices.”

In fact, productivity is collapsing. We just got the worst productivity numbers in 62 years.

Our economy is imploding. It is a mess. We just can’t see it because we’re blinded by all the inflation.”

Tucker asked the next logical question: how long until the world completely loses faith in the US dollar and it is no longer the world’s reserve currency?

People still have confidence in the dollar and the Federal Reserve. I don’t know why. They’ve gotten so many things wrong. … But eventually the world is going to leave the US dollar. The dollar is going to collapse. Money is going to flow into other currencies. It’s going to flow into real money — gold and silver. It’s going to go into real assets — stocks, real estate — mostly outside the United States. Because we’re going to be the epicenter of a coming currency crisis and sovereign debt crisis that’s going to make the financial crisis of 2008 look like a Sunday school picnic.

As Carlson said, this is bigger than coronavirus or pronouns. So, why is most everybody ignoring it?

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/14/2021 - 15:26

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Six scary charts – happy Halloween!×576.pngIt’s Halloween again and time for the Bond Vigilantes’…



This blog first appeared in the Financial Times

It’s Halloween again and time for the Bond Vigilantes’ yearly round up of the spookiest charts in global finance.

With persistent levels of inflation and increasing signs of weakness in the global economy, 2023 has been a scary year for everyone. Turning our focus to markets, the effect of higher financing costs following central banks’ aggressive tightening of monetary policy has meant we have found no shortage of scary charts either.

Happy Halloween!

  1. Duration can be scary

Source: Bloomberg, M&G, Swiss Re/Jack Farley (October 2023)

With the release of pent-up demand following lockdowns, and with excess money in the economy as a result of stimulative monetary and fiscal policy during that period, the past few years have seen inflation make a comeback. As markets have repriced their inflation expectations and as central banks have aggressively increased interest rates, investors in longer-dated bonds have had a sharp reminder that duration can be scary.

Bonds with higher duration leave investors exposed for longer to the risk of inflation eroding the real value of their investment, which is why they tend to suffer in such environments. This chart really puts the moves in bonds since the pandemic into perspective: the total drawdown in long-duration US Treasury bonds now exceeds the peak-to-trough stock market crash seen in the Great Financial Crisis.

  1. Will Uncle Sam be able to pay his bill before nightfall?

Source: Bloomberg, M&G (June 2023)

Uncle Sam has a big bill to pay. The combination of significant borrowing during the pandemic, together with the rise in interest rates means that debt interest payments have been rising fast for the US government. Annual interest payments look like they will soon hit $1 trillion, and likely rise even further as maturing debt will need to be refinanced at higher rates. In fact, total interest payments for the US have now reached the same level as their total debt in 1980!

There is a risk that rising Treasury bond supply and higher leverage will spook investors: perhaps the recent US downgrade by Fitch will not be the last. While default is highly unlikely, the increasing risk of US Treasuries is likely to be manifested primarily at the long end of the curve as market participants demand a higher term premium.

  1. Midnight approaches following curve inversion

Source: Bloomberg, Citi Velocity, M&G (October 2023)

The inversion of the US Treasury curve is a well-known signal that a recession is on the way. For many decades, a recession has always followed in the months following inversion. An inverted yield curve refers to the situation when short-term yields are higher than long-term yields, indicating that investors are repositioning into longer-dated bonds and suggesting market pessimism on near-term economic prospects.

But a closer look at the chart above reveals that it is in fact when the curve starts to steepen again following an inversion that recession usually strikes. With the 2s10s curve (10 year yield minus 2 year yield) having just started to steepen, is midnight nearly upon us?

  1. Will higher financing costs bite high yield issuers?

Source: Bloomberg, BofA Merrill Lynch, M&G (August 2023)

We are now 18 months into the hiking cycles of most central banks. Despite this, credit valuations have remained resilient, even within high yield bonds. The (option-adjusted) spread of the Global High Yield index has now fallen to the low 400s (bps), leaving it at close to its tightest levels since the Great Financial Crisis.

No doubt high yield credit spreads have been helped thus far by demand from yield-hungry investors, and also tighter supply of high yield bonds: high yield issuers have refrained from refinancing where they can in light of higher funding costs.

But, with many companies having put refinancing off for some time now, maturity walls are closing in: nearly 10% of high yield issuers face refinancing risk in the next two years. This is likely to become the largest refinancing effort for HY issuers since the GFC.

  1. Sharks lurking beneath the inflationary waters

Source: M&G, Bloomberg (September 2023)

Inflation usually comes in waves. This is perhaps because it tends to cause issues that governments and central banks try to resolve with expansionary policies.

For example, back in the 70s we had two big waves of inflation before then-Fed Chair Volker finally managed to put the inflation genie back in the bottle. With inflation dynamics looking similar to the ones we experienced in the 70s, there is a risk that inflation could make a comeback.

  1. Real rates are back into positively scary territory

Source: M&G, Bloomberg (31 August 2023)

The risk of recession is increasing. One of the key indicators we follow is the real rate, which we have defined in the chart above as the central bank rate minus core inflation. In the US, a real rate above 3% has traditionally been a precursor to recessions.

Real rates have been rising significantly over recent months and, following central banks’ tightening of monetary policy, now sit comfortably within positive territory. On a year-on-year basis, real rates are now approaching 2%. Looking at more recent inflation dynamics, however, real rates just crossed the 3% mark.

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Watch: COVID Authoritarians Want Forgiveness – Here’s Why They Don’t Deserve It

Watch: COVID Authoritarians Want Forgiveness – Here’s Why They Don’t Deserve It

Do authoritarians deserve a chance to be treated with grace…



Watch: COVID Authoritarians Want Forgiveness – Here's Why They Don't Deserve It

Do authoritarians deserve a chance to be treated with grace and forgiveness?  The question is circulating regularly these days in the wake of the complete failure of covid pandemic response and the victory of the anti-mandate movement.  The answer relies on a series of counter-questions based on logic and predictable outcomes.  It's the kind of discussion that covid cultists don't want to have; they just want everyone to forget because they now have something to lose politically  

Scott Galloway, Professor at the NYU Stern School of Business and member of the World Economic Forum's "Global Leaders Of Tomorrow" list, is one of the cultists that now wants to be given a free pass as he debates the issue on Real Time with Bill Maher.

The question that we need to ask Galloway is:  How forgiving was he when confronted with people who opposed his authoritarianism?  Galloway was rabidly pro-mandate.  He consistently called for harsher punishments for people refusing to comply and he demanded that the unvaccinated be treated as second tier citizens banned from places of business.  As he argued in his blog titled 'Half Of America Has Its Head Up Its Ass. It's Time For A Vaccine Mandate':

“Enough already. Federal law should require any citizen who wants to cash a government check, use public transport, or enter a place of business to show proof of vaccination...”

Galloway cited the ever present inflated CDC data on covid deaths in America as the justification for his authoritarian position.  Of course, data was available not long after the spread of covid indicating that the Infection Fatality Rate of the virus was a tiny 0.23% and that 99.8% of the population (including the unvaccinated) had nothing to fear.  Not only that, but the CDC has recently and quietly published information showing that around 95% of people who died with covid also had one or more comorbidities and 75% had at least four – Meaning, if you did not have multiple comorbidities your chances of dying from covid were incredibly small.   

Do Galloway and those like him deserve a clean slate?  No, they don't, and here's why...

No Apologies

We hear many covid authoritarians talk about forgiveness but very few of them actually apologize for their behavior.  Galloway calls for “grace”, perhaps trying to appeal to the Christian notion of “turning the other cheek.”  He admits he was wrong on the mandates (because the data forces him to), but he doesn't actually apologize for his behavior.  In fact, he excuses his behavior and the behavior of leftist politicians as them doing the best they could do given the imperfect information they had at the time.  This is a common tactic of misdirection.

As noted above, within months of covid becoming active in the US, the data was already available showing that the virus was not a legitimate threat.  So the claim that their information was "the best they had at the time" does not hold water.  There was more than enough evidence to warrant opposition to unconstitutional policies (frankly, even if covid had been more deadly it doesn't justify violations of the Bill of Rights).  Millions of Americans tried to explain the truth to those panicking over covid, and they chose not to listen, calling us “selfish conspiracy theorists.” 

But the greatest trespasses were among those analysts and "influencers" who used covid as an opportunity for political gain, knowing that there was information that debunked government and media spin.  The worst people are those that have no intention of making amends because they plan to try again.  People who do wrong and refuse to give a legitimate apology are the kinds of people that are likely to commit similar offenses in the future.   

Mad With Power

The covidians were primarily from the left side of the political spectrum and wherever leftists were most concentrated is where the most egregious violations of liberty took place.  The political left went absolutely mad with power, with a large number of Democrats supporting Orwellian controls to punish people refusing to submit to the mandates. 

There were calls to fine the unvaccinated, imprison people who question the vaccine, put the vaccinated on home lockdown and even take away their children.  In some states, like New York, there was active legislation put forward to create detention facilities for people that did not comply (covid camps).  That is some serious Stalinist behavior and we are still waiting for it to be addressed and for certain political leaders to be punished.  

As the old saying goes: "Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man’s character, give him power."  We have now seen the character of the political left.  We have seen the character of people like Galloway, and they have been found untrustworthy.

It Can And Will Happen Again

The covid event was really a litmus test for authoritarian tendencies in the US.  At least half the public failed that test miserably.  We may not see another pandemic agenda in our lifetimes, but that doesn't really matter.  There will be many other opportunities in the future for ignorant people and sociopathic people to act out on their darker impulses.  It is important to make a note of how the individuals around us behave when they think it's safe to be evil, and we must remember who they are.  These are not people that should be given “grace” or trust down the road when the next crisis strikes; they have shown themselves to be unworthy of that.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/30/2023 - 20:40

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DeSantis Warns China ‘Key Player’ Behind Ukraine, Israel Wars

DeSantis Warns China ‘Key Player’ Behind Ukraine, Israel Wars

Authored by Jackson Richman, Eva Fu and Jan Jekielek via The Epoch Times (emphasis…



DeSantis Warns China 'Key Player' Behind Ukraine, Israel Wars

Authored by Jackson Richman, Eva Fu and Jan Jekielek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Florida governor and Republican presidential candidate Ron DeSantis warned on Oct. 27 that China is "the key player" behind the conflicts in Ukraine and Israel.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) during a Q&A with Epoch Times senior editor Jan Jekielek (L) and Heritage Foundation President Kevin Roberts at the Heritage Foundation in Washington on Oct. 27, 2022. (Erin Granzow)

Appearing at an event hosted by the Heritage Foundation, a  conservative think tank in Washington, in conjunction with The Epoch Times, Mr. DeSantis struck a hawkish tone toward Beijing, calling it a “key player” behind the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza Strip.

"The CCP is keeping both Iran and Russia afloat financially," Mr. DeSantis said in his speech, using the acronym for the Chinese Communist Party. "China's purchasing massive amounts of Iranian oil on the black market, thereby enriching the mullahs and Russia is selling China gas and much, much more. And that is bolstering Russia's war machine."

Mr. DeSantis went on to say that the protracted conflict between Ukraine and Russia since February 2022 "will ultimately benefit China because it will distract America and it will deplete our already dwindling Western weapons and ammunition stockpiles."

And while the United States will support Israel in defending itself, he believes that China “like[s] the Hamas-Israel conflict.”

Clearly the way the world has gone the last two years has benefits to China,” he said. “There’s no question.”

“The threat posed by the CCP requires our primary focus and attention right now. They are the first truly peer competitor that we have dealt with in our lifetimes."

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) during a Q&A with Epoch Times senior editor Jan Jekielek (M) and Heritage Foundation President Kevin Roberts (L) at the Heritage Foundation in Washington on Oct. 27, 2022. (Erin Granzow)

The Biden administration has relaxed or failed to enforce sanctions on Iran, which has given drones to Russia and exports oil to China. Mr. DeSantis noted that Russia has been selling China gas and “much, much more.”

He blamed “bad decisions made by America's ruling class” for the economic leverage China now has over the U.S. economy, noting that the United States had given China most-favored-nation trading status and allowed Beijing to be part of the World Trade Organization.

"And China has grand ambitions. They seek to be the dominant power in the entire world and they are marshaling all their society to be able to achieve that objective," he said. "So this is a formidable threat and it requires a whole-of-society approach."

He warned that “a world that's dominated by CCP will see them export their authoritarian vision all across the world.

“This will be a world marked by internet policing, artificial intelligence, facial recognition, and social credit scores. It will end up creating a global dystopia and this is a regime that you do not want to have control or influence over our society,” he said, comparing the China threat to the Soviet Union's effort to spread communism worldwide.

The death toll that the Chinese regime is responsible for over its 70 some years of ruling “may very well be the highest of any government in history and numbers in the 10s of millions,” and the regime’s coverup of the pandemic, he added, has “put the rest of the world in great peril.”

Mr. DeSantis pledged to reorient U.S. foreign policy to prioritize the Indo-Pacific region to defend U.S. national security. Deterring CCP aggression, he said, requires the United States to project strength, which he detailed as bolstering the U.S. military to deny Chinese ambitions toward Taiwan, unleashing “America's full economic potential,” ensuring U.S. technological dominance, and closing border loopholes.

The Florida governor has maintained a tough-on-China record during his tenure, including by restricting Chinese purchases of property in the state and banning the controversial Beijing-funded Confucius Institute program from school campuses. In September, he directed the Florida Department of Education to cut state funding for four schools, citing their “direct ties to the CCP” that he said "constitute an imminent threat to the health, safety, and welfare of these school’s students and the public."

During a Q&A with Mr. DeSantis, Heritage Foundation President Kevin Roberts and Epoch Times senior editor Jan Jekielek asked the governor if the issue of human rights should be tied to U.S. policy on trade with China.

"Traditionally, human rights have been linked to trade or trade has been linked to human rights," noted Mr. Jekielek, also the host of EpochTV's "American Thought Leaders."

"I think human rights is something that's good to stand for. What is the concrete interest? I do think it informs a concrete interest because this is one of the great weaknesses of the CCP," said Mr. DeSantis. "What they're trying to export around the world ultimately, is something that is going to suffocate human freedom. Their vision is a dystopian vision."

Mr. DeSantis' statements came hours before Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with President Joe Biden at the White House. The regime's top diplomat is in Washington for meetings with senior Biden administration officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. The administration has framed its relationship with the regime as one of "strategic competition" rather than directly adversarial.

Along with warning about China, other topics Mr. DeSantis highlighted in his major foreign policy speech include the latest Hamas-Israel conflict, which began on Oct. 7 and consisted of the biggest single-day massacre of Jews since the Holocaust, and border security amid the crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border.

During his Q&A, Mr. DeSantis noted the trend of leftist governments in Latin America.

"We should have an updated version of the Monroe Doctrine for our own neighborhood in the 21st century," he said, referring to a late 19th-century principle that viewed attempts by Europe to intervene in the Americas as a potentially hostile act against the United States itself.

Mr. DeSantis emphasized the United States is now at “the decisive decade” to “arrest our country's decline” and tackle the challenge from China.

“At the end of the day, China has a lot of liabilities. They have a lot of weaknesses,” he said. “They want to maintain ironclad control over their population indefinitely,” but there are already cracks showing, and increasing, “because they are not doing what needs to be done for individuals to ultimately flourish.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/30/2023 - 14:40

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