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Big tech may be able to stabilize Q1 earnings this week, but investors will be taking their cues from COVID updates

Big tech may be able to stabilize Q1 earnings this week, but investors will be taking their cues from COVID updates

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This week officially marks the beginning of peak earnings season with over 300 companies set to report. The season got off to a disappointing start last week with all the big banks showing a year-over-year (YoY) deceleration in growth on the top and bottom line, and as a result markets traded lower on Tuesday and Wednesday.

You might be thinking “but hey, the markets are forward-looking, and we knew to expect bad news from the banks, why wasn’t this priced in?” … and that’s true a lot of the bad news was priced in, a lot of the surprise came when banks announced how much they were putting aside for loan loss provisions for anticipated defaults, and more generally for staying mum on expectations for the second half of the year, only a few gave any form of expectations for Q2. Lack of guidance tends to be more of an ominous sign than poor guidance.  Banks actuals, plus downgrades to earnings estimates in other sectors, brought the blended earnings growth rate from FactSet down to -15% from the expectation of -10% last week.

Despite the banks dragging down markets in the first half of the week, things were looking up Thursday and Friday as plans to reopen America emerged, and Gilead Sciences announced its antiviral medicine remdesivir was showing promise in combating COVID-19. It’s likely those are the headlines that will push investors this earnings season, instead of the earnings themselves, which might be a good thing for this rally.

It’s an incredibly busy week, so here’s the 6 (yes six) things we’re watching: 

1. Big Tech reports earnings

All five FAANG stocks report in the next two weeks, and two in particular, Amazon and Netflix hit record high stock prices last week. In fact, all of these names appeared on our TipRanks trending stocks list as of this morning, which tracks the names with the most number of analyst ratings over a 3 day period. 

Netflix is anticipated to post YoY earnings growth of 114% and revenue growth of 27%. Of course this has been one of the favorite stay at home names since “pause” orders have been mandated in much of the US. 

Leading into its report Tuesday after the bell, most of the sell side analysts covered by TipRanks have reiterated past ratings (mostly buy),  with Morgan Stanley’s 5 star analyst Benjamin Swinburne upgrading to a buy last week. Keep in mind we are still seeing these reiterations of Buy calls despite NFLX being at an all time high. The 12-mo price target amongst our best analysts is for $414.26. And we’ve got a smart score* of 10, with the only negative factor being insider selling in the last 3 mos. 

(*The TipRanks Smart score is calculated using 8 factors we’ve found to be most highly indicative of future stock performance, ie: analyst recommendations, activity from insiders and hedge funds, sentiment from news, individual investors and financial bloggers, as well as technicals and fundamentals)

The other big name that rose to record levels on Thursday and is getting plenty of their own momentum due to coronavirus lockdowns is Amazon. Still, they are expected to post a YoY earnings decline of -10% and revenues of 22%. 

And you can see below, not only do they have a smart score of 10, but every single analyst that we capture that covers AMZN, 32 in total, has a buy rating. I haven’t looked too deeply into this, but I have to imagine there aren’t a ton of names in our universe that have that pedigree… especially as they report record high share prices. Right now we’re seeing a price target of $2460, that’s almost 4% higher than current prices. And you’ll see in the second screen, the 5 most recent ratings are even coming in higher than that target (ratings from Cowen, Wolfe, JPM, Robert Baird and Barclays).

Amazon saw all time intraday high of $2461 on Thursday, and Netflix saw an intraday high of $449.52 on the same day. Both names started to slip as plans to reopen America were announced, boosted by rising optimism that potential medical treatments could accelerate the restarting of the economy, hence getting people out of their homes.

Apple and Alphabet the other two FAANGs on tap this week that are getting some attention after announcing a rare collaboration last week around “contact tracing” -- an initiative to integrate technology into their smartphones that will alert users if they have come in contact with someone with COVID-19. Apple currently has a Smart Score of 10, while Alphabet has a Smart Score of 6. 

2. Updates from GILD  - and other health care names working on therapies and vaccines. 

The real marker that the economy is ready to open will be the emergence of a COVID-19 treatment. A vaccine will no doubt get investor attention as well, but with that not expected to happen for 12-18 months we need a treatment to bridge the gap. Otherwise there will be constant fear around a second wave looming that will impact consumer behavior. 

Specifically we’ll be looking to hear more from Gilead Sciences, who reported last week that very early and small trials in Chicago were looking positive. Their antiviral drug, remdesivir, was originally developed for Ebola, but failed to combat that disease, and instead has shown potential in fighting coronaviruses. There is still a long way to go, and the data is still too early, but it gave everyone a little bit of hope they were looking for. 

Gilead currently has a Smart Score of 10, with the best analysts on the platform rating it a moderate buy. 

3. Reopening America

President Trump announced a plan on Thursday to reopen the American economy in three phases, mostly aimed at easing restrictions in areas that have reported lower rates of infection, while harder hit locations will likely be on pause longer. A handful of states, including Texas, Vermont, Minnesota and Montana have started to announce dates for their easing of restrictions that begin as early as the end of this month. Many harder hit eastern and midwestern states have extended their stay at home orders until May 15. We’ll be looking out for more updates from the Trump administration this week, as well as from the states as governors have made clear they will move at a pace that makes sense for their specific situation. 

4. Updated COVID numbers

We’ll also be looking for continued evidence that COVID hotspots such as NYC report improved numbers, and that the plateau of cases there starts to morph into a downturn. Other hotspots such as Massachusetts, Florida and Connecticut will all be in focus as they are expected to peak this week. It looks as though all of the precautions taken around social distancing and the use of personal protective equipment are helping, now we’ll wait to hear about other important initiatives such as expanding antibody testing.

5. Stimulus Progress

Next we’ll want to hear more about how stimulus is working in America. What we know so far: 

  • Stimulus checks - 80M have gotten their stimulus checks, some fintech companies (Current, Netspend) that have been distributing those payments report most of that cash has been spent on food, gas and other essentials. But we know glitches with distribution abound, including issues for tax preparers using services such as H&R Block and TurboTax, and those filing with dependents.
  • PPP - The fight over small business funding will continue this week. The $349B allocated to the paycheck protection program ran out on Thursday, with about 1.3 million loans approved. There is a push to have that replenished with $250B - $400B (no official word as of Sunday evening) before moving on with other stimulus efforts.
  • Mortgages - Nearly 3M homeowners have taken advantage of the mortgage forbearance program for government-backed loans, we’ll be tracking how that number increases this week. 
  • Unemployment - Over 22M Americans have applied for unemployment in the last 4 weeks, jobless benefits will now include up to $600 more per week, on top of what each individual state provides. We’ll want to see signs that people are able to successfully apply for and receive these benefits, as of last week only ⅔ of states were making those additional payments. 

6. Economic Data

On top of all that we have a slew of relevant economic data reporting this week: 

  • Home sales - This week we get monthly reports on Existing Home Sales and New Home sales for March. We know this is not going to be good news. We already got dismal Housing Starts numbers last week, which sharply missed consensus after recently spiking to a 12 year high. MoM results for Existing Home Sales are expected to be down 8%, while New Home Sales are expected to be down nearly 13%. With the spring season off to a bad start, we’ll likely see these numbers suppressed for some time as consumers will no doubt be unwilling to make large ticket purchases. Historically low mortgage rates have encouraged an increase in refinancing, but new mortgage applications have fallen 35% from last year. 
  • Consumer - Retail sales for March came in last week, and were down 8.7% from February, no surprise there. This week we get another important metric on the consumer in the form of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index, which measures how US consumers are feeling about the economy and their willingness to spend money. The indicator is expected to show consumer sentiment plunged 24% in April from the prior month. 
  • Jobless claims - This has become a must watch item each Thursday as over 22M people have applied for unemployment here in the US over the last 4 weeks. No doubt this number will continue to be high this week, but we are looking for it to be lower than last week. Last week’s number of 5.25M was high, but showed a decrease from the prior 2 weeks and we want to see that pattern continue. 

Next week we have over 600 companies reporting as peak season continues and that includes a bunch of the biotech names which will be in view this season as investors (and really everyone) looks for updates from those working on COVID vaccine and therapies.

The post Big tech may be able to stabilize Q1 earnings this week, but investors will be taking their cues from COVID updates appeared first on TipRanks Financial Blog.

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Home buyers must now navigate higher mortgage rates and prices

Rates under 4% came and went during the Covid pandemic, but home prices soared. Here’s what buyers and sellers face as the housing season ramps up.

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Springtime is spreading across the country. You can see it as daffodil, camellia, tulip and other blossoms start to emerge. 

You can also see it in the increasing number of for sale signs popping up in front of homes, along with the painting, gardening and general sprucing up as buyers get ready to sell. 

Which leads to two questions: 

  • How is the real estate market this spring? 
  • Where are mortgage rates? 

What buyers and sellers face

The housing market is bedeviled with supply shortages, high prices and slow sales.

Mortgage rates are still high and may limit what a buyer can offer and a seller can expect.  

Related: Analyst warns that a TikTok ban could lead to major trouble for Apple, Big Tech

And there's a factor not expected that may affect the sales process. Fixed commission rates on home sales are going away in July.

Reports this week and in a week will make the situation clearer for buyers and sellers. 

The reports are:

  • Housing starts from the U.S. Commerce Department due Tuesday. The consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted rate of about 1.4 million homes. These would include apartments, both rentals and condominiums. 
  • Existing home sales, due Thursday from the National Association of Realtors. The consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted sales rate of about 4 million homes. In 2023, some 4.1 million homes were sold, the worst sales rate since 1995. 
  • New-home sales and prices, due Monday from the Commerce Department. Analysts are expecting a sales rate of 661,000 homes (including condos), up 1.5% from a year ago.

Here is what buyers and sellers need to know about the situation. 

Mortgage rates will stay above 5% 

That's what most analysts believe. Right now, the rate on a 30-year mortgage is between 6.7% and 7%. 

Rates peaked at 8% in October after the Federal Reserve signaled it was done raising interest rates.

The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey of March 14 was at 6.74%. 

Freddie Mac buys mortgages from lenders and sells securities to investors. The effect is to replenish lenders' cash levels to make more loans. 

A hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index released that day has pushed quotes to 7% or higher, according to data from Mortgage News Daily, which tracks mortgage markets.

Home buyers must navigate higher mortgage rates and prices this spring.

TheStreet

On a median-priced home (price: $380,000) and a 20% down payment, that means a principal and interest rate payment of $2,022. The payment  does not include taxes and insurance.

Last fall when the 30-year rate hit 8%, the payment would have been $2,230. 

In 2021, the average rate was 2.96%, which translated into a payment of $1,275. 

Short of a depression, that's a rate that won't happen in most of our lifetimes. 

Most economists believe current rates will fall to around 6.3% by the end of the year, maybe lower, depending on how many times the Federal Reserve cuts rates this year. 

If 6%, the payment on our median-priced home is $1,823.

But under 5%, absent a nasty recession, fuhgettaboutit.

Supply will be tight, keeping prices up

Two factors are affecting the supply of homes for sale in just about every market.

First: Homeowners who had been able to land a mortgage at 2.96% are very reluctant to sell because they would then have to find a home they could afford with, probably, a higher-cost mortgage.

More economic news:

Second, the combination of high prices and high mortgage rates are freezing out thousands of potential buyers, especially those looking for homes in lower price ranges.

Indeed, The Wall Street Journal noted that online brokerage Redfin said only about 20% of homes for sale in February were affordable for the typical household.

And here mortgage rates can play one last nasty trick. If rates fall, that means a buyer can afford to pay more. Sellers and their real-estate agents know this too, and may ask for a higher price. 

Covid's last laugh: An inflation surge

Mortgage rates jumped to 8% or higher because since 2022 the Federal Reserve has been fighting to knock inflation down to 2% a year. Raising interest rates was the ammunition to battle rising prices.

In June 2022, the consumer price index was 9.1% higher than a year earlier. 

The causes of the worst inflation since the 1970s were: 

  • Covid-19 pandemic, which caused the global economy to shut down in 2020. When Covid ebbed and people got back to living their lives, getting global supply chains back to normal operation proved difficult. 
  • Oil prices jumped to record levels because of the recovery from the pandemic recovery and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

What the changes in commissions means

The long-standing practice of paying real-estate agents will be retired this summer, after the National Association of Realtors settled a long and bitter legal fight.

No longer will the seller necessarily pay 6% of the sale price to split between buyer and seller agents.

Both sellers and buyers will have to negotiate separately the services agents have charged for 100 years or more. These include pre-screening properties, writing sales contracts, and the like. The change will continue a trend of adding costs and complications to the process of buying or selling a home.

Already, interest rates are a complication. In addition, homeowners insurance has become very pricey, especially in communities vulnerable to hurricanes, tornadoes, and forest fires. Florida homeowners have seen premiums jump more than 102% in the last three years. A policy now costs three times more than the national average.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

 

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Default: San Francisco Four Seasons Hotel Investors $3 Million Late On Loan As Foreclosure Looms

Default: San Francisco Four Seasons Hotel Investors $3 Million Late On Loan As Foreclosure Looms

Westbrook Partners, which acquired the San…

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Default: San Francisco Four Seasons Hotel Investors $3 Million Late On Loan As Foreclosure Looms

Westbrook Partners, which acquired the San Francisco Four Seasons luxury hotel building, has been served a notice of default, as the developer has failed to make its monthly loan payment since December, and is currently behind by more than $3 million, the San Francisco Business Times reports.

Westbrook, which acquired the property at 345 California Center in 2019, has 90 days to bring their account current with its lender or face foreclosure.

Related

As SF Gate notes, downtown San Francisco hotel investors have had a terrible few years - with interest rates higher than their pre-pandemic levels, and local tourism continuing to suffer thanks to the city's legendary mismanagement that has resulted in overlapping drug, crime, and homelessness crises (which SF Gate characterizes as "a negative media narrative).

Last summer, the owner of San Francisco’s Hilton Union Square and Parc 55 hotels abandoned its loan in the first major default. Industry insiders speculate that loan defaults like this may become more common given the difficult period for investors.

At a visitor impact summit in August, a senior director of hospitality analytics for the CoStar Group reported that there are 22 active commercial mortgage-backed securities loans for hotels in San Francisco maturing in the next two years. Of these hotel loans, 17 are on CoStar’s “watchlist,” as they are at a higher risk of default, the analyst said. -SF Gate

The 155-room Four Seasons San Francisco at Embarcadero currenly occupies the top 11 floors of the iconic skyscrper. After slow renovations, the hotel officially reopened in the summer of 2021.

"Regarding the landscape of the hotel community in San Francisco, the short term is a challenging situation due to high interest rates, fewer guests compared to pre-pandemic and the relatively high costs attached with doing business here," Alex Bastian, President and CEO of the Hotel Council of San Francisco, told SFGATE.

Heightened Risks

In January, the owner of the Hilton Financial District at 750 Kearny St. - Portsmouth Square's affiliate Justice Operating Company - defaulted on the property, which had a $97 million loan on the 544-room hotel taken out in 2013. The company says it proposed a loan modification agreement which was under review by the servicer, LNR Partners.

Meanwhile last year Park Hotels & Resorts gave up ownership of two properties, Parc 55 and Hilton Union Square - which were transferred to a receiver that assumed management.

In the third quarter of 2023, the most recent data available, the Hilton Financial District reported $11.1 million in revenue, down from $12.3 million from the third quarter of 2022. The hotel had a net operating loss of $1.56 million in the most recent third quarter.

Occupancy fell to 88% with an average daily rate of $218 in the third quarter compared with 94% and $230 in the same period of 2022. -SF Chronicle

According to the Chronicle, San Francisco's 2024 convention calendar is lighter than it was last year - in part due to key events leaving the city for cheaper, less crime-ridden places like Las Vegas

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/17/2024 - 18:05

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Mistakes Were Made

Mistakes Were Made

Authored by C.J.Hopkins via The Consent Factory,

Make fun of the Germans all you want, and I’ve certainly done that…

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Mistakes Were Made

Authored by C.J.Hopkins via The Consent Factory,

Make fun of the Germans all you want, and I’ve certainly done that a bit during these past few years, but, if there’s one thing they’re exceptionally good at, it’s taking responsibility for their mistakes. Seriously, when it comes to acknowledging one’s mistakes, and not rationalizing, or minimizing, or attempting to deny them, and any discomfort they may have allegedly caused, no one does it quite like the Germans.

Take this Covid mess, for example. Just last week, the German authorities confessed that they made a few minor mistakes during their management of the “Covid pandemic.” According to Karl Lauterbach, the Minister of Health, “we were sometimes too strict with the children and probably started easing the restrictions a little too late.” Horst Seehofer, the former Interior Minister, admitted that he would no longer agree to some of the Covid restrictions today, for example, nationwide nighttime curfews. “One must be very careful with calls for compulsory vaccination,” he added. Helge Braun, Head of the Chancellery and Minister for Special Affairs under Merkel, agreed that there had been “misjudgments,” for example, “overestimating the effectiveness of the vaccines.”

This display of the German authorities’ unwavering commitment to transparency and honesty, and the principle of personal honor that guides the German authorities in all their affairs, and that is deeply ingrained in the German character, was published in a piece called “The Divisive Virus” in Der Spiegel, and immediately widely disseminated by the rest of the German state and corporate media in a totally organic manner which did not in any way resemble one enormous Goebbelsian keyboard instrument pumping out official propaganda in perfect synchronization, or anything creepy and fascistic like that.

Germany, after all, is “an extremely democratic state,” with freedom of speech and the press and all that, not some kind of totalitarian country where the masses are inundated with official propaganda and critics of the government are dragged into criminal court and prosecuted on trumped-up “hate crime” charges.

OK, sure, in a non-democratic totalitarian system, such public “admissions of mistakes” — and the synchronized dissemination thereof by the media — would just be a part of the process of whitewashing the authorities’ fascistic behavior during some particularly totalitarian phase of transforming society into whatever totalitarian dystopia they were trying to transform it into (for example, a three-year-long “state of emergency,” which they declared to keep the masses terrorized and cooperative while they stripped them of their democratic rights, i.e., the ones they hadn’t already stripped them of, and conditioned them to mindlessly follow orders, and robotically repeat nonsensical official slogans, and vent their impotent hatred and fear at the new “Untermenschen” or “counter-revolutionaries”), but that is obviously not the case here.

No, this is definitely not the German authorities staging a public “accountability” spectacle in order to memory-hole what happened during 2020-2023 and enshrine the official narrative in history. There’s going to be a formal “Inquiry Commission” — conducted by the same German authorities that managed the “crisis” — which will get to the bottom of all the regrettable but completely understandable “mistakes” that were made in the heat of the heroic battle against The Divisive Virus!

OK, calm down, all you “conspiracy theorists,” “Covid deniers,” and “anti-vaxxers.” This isn’t going to be like the Nuremberg Trials. No one is going to get taken out and hanged. It’s about identifying and acknowledging mistakes, and learning from them, so that the authorities can manage everything better during the next “pandemic,” or “climate emergency,” or “terrorist attack,” or “insurrection,” or whatever.

For example, the Inquiry Commission will want to look into how the government accidentally declared a Nationwide State of Pandemic Emergency and revised the Infection Protection Act, suspending the German constitution and granting the government the power to rule by decree, on account of a respiratory virus that clearly posed no threat to society at large, and then unleashed police goon squads on the thousands of people who gathered outside the Reichstag to protest the revocation of their constitutional rights.

Once they do, I’m sure they’ll find that that “mistake” bears absolutely no resemblance to the Enabling Act of 1933, which suspended the German constitution and granted the government the power to rule by decree, after the Nazis declared a nationwide “state of emergency.”

Another thing the Commission will probably want to look into is how the German authorities accidentally banned any further demonstrations against their arbitrary decrees, and ordered the police to brutalize anyone participating in such “illegal demonstrations.”

And, while the Commission is inquiring into the possibly slightly inappropriate behavior of their law enforcement officials, they might want to also take a look at the behavior of their unofficial goon squads, like Antifa, which they accidentally encouraged to attack the “anti-vaxxers,” the “Covid deniers,” and anyone brandishing a copy of the German constitution.

Come to think of it, the Inquiry Commission might also want to look into how the German authorities, and the overwhelming majority of the state and corporate media, accidentally systematically fomented mass hatred of anyone who dared to question the government’s arbitrary and nonsensical decrees or who refused to submit to “vaccination,” and publicly demonized us as “Corona deniers,” “conspiracy theorists,” “anti-vaxxers,” “far-right anti-Semites,” etc., to the point where mainstream German celebrities like Sarah Bosetti were literally describing us as the inessential “appendix” in the body of the nation, quoting an infamous Nazi almost verbatim.

And then there’s the whole “vaccination” business. The Commission will certainly want to inquire into that. They will probably want to start their inquiry with Karl Lauterbach, and determine exactly how he accidentally lied to the public, over and over, and over again …

And whipped people up into a mass hysteria over “KILLER VARIANTS” …

And “LONG COVID BRAIN ATTACKS” …

And how “THE UNVACCINATED ARE HOLDING THE WHOLE COUNTRY HOSTAGE, SO WE NEED TO FORCIBLY VACCINATE EVERYONE!”

And so on. I could go on with this all day, but it will be much easier to just refer you, and the Commission, to this documentary film by Aya Velázquez. Non-German readers may want to skip to the second half, unless they’re interested in the German “Corona Expert Council” …

Look, the point is, everybody makes “mistakes,” especially during a “state of emergency,” or a war, or some other type of global “crisis.” At least we can always count on the Germans to step up and take responsibility for theirs, and not claim that they didn’t know what was happening, or that they were “just following orders,” or that “the science changed.”

Plus, all this Covid stuff is ancient history, and, as Olaf, an editor at Der Spiegel, reminds us, it’s time to put the “The Divisive Pandemic” behind us …

… and click heels, and heil the New Normal Democracy!

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/16/2024 - 23:20

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