Connect with us

Stocks

Best monthly gains since October 2021 — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

July closed with Bitcoin up almost 17%, but now, analysts are turning to how long the bullish trend can last.
Bitcoin (BTC) starts…

Published

on

July closed with Bitcoin up almost 17%, but now, analysts are turning to how long the bullish trend can last.

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week and a new month on a cautiously positive footing after protecting crucial levels.

After an intense July in which macro factors provided significant volatility, BTC price action managed to provide both a weekly and monthly candle favoring the bulls.

The road to some form of recovery continues, and at some points in recent weeks, it seemed like Bitcoin would suffer even harder on the back of June’s 40% losses.

Now, however, there is already a sense of optimism among analysts, but one thing remains clear — this “bear market rally” does not mean the end of the tunnel yet.

As Summer 2022 enters its final month, Cointelegraph takes a look at the potential market triggers at play for Bitcoin as it lingers near its highest levels since mid-June.

Spot price snatches back bear market trendlines

In terms of Bitcoin’s July performance, things could have been a lot worse.

After June saw losses of nearly 40%, BTC/USD managed to close out last month with respectable 16.8% gains, according to data from analytics resource Coinglass.

BTC/USD monthly returns chart (screenshot). Source: Coinglass

While those gains at one point passed 20%, July’s tally nonetheless remains Bitcoin’s best since October 2021 — before the latest all-time highs of $69,000 hit.

With solid foundations in place, the question among analysts is now if and how long the party can continue.

“First monthly close in green since March,” popular trader and analyst Josh Rager responded.

“After monthly closed above 2017 all-time high from last cycle, price is slowly climbing up. Looks good so far and even if this is a ‘bear market,’ I'm happy to buy dips right now.”

Others were more cautious, among them fellow trader and analyst Crypto Tony, who noted that the recent local highs just above $24,000 were still acting as unchallenged resistance on the day.

“I am looking for a breakdown of this Bitcoin pattern and remain short while we are below the $24,000 supply zone we rejected off,” he confirmed to Twitter followers.

Nonetheless, the weekly and monthly close sealed some important levels as support for Bitcoin. Specifically, the 200-week moving average flipped from resistance on the weekly chart, and BTC/USD retained its realized price, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

In its latest weekly newsletter released last week, Blockchain infrastructure and cryptocurrency mining firm Blockware also noted that a reclaim of the 180-period exponential hull moving average (EHMA) at just under $22,000 on the monthly chart would be “quite bullish.”

“Monthly also appears to be reclaiming its 180-week EHMA, a level we’ve talked about over the last few months as a macro accumulation area for BTC. This closes Sunday night EST as well,” lead insights analyst William Clemente wrote.

“If it does reclaim, would be quite bullish as failed breakdowns/breakouts are a strong signal.”
BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp) with 200-week moving average. Source: TradingView

Macro triggers cool for August

The macro picture to begin August is one of relief mixed with a sense of distrust over how the rest of the year could play out.

On short timeframes, United States equities survived last month’s Federal Reserve-induced volatility to end July on a high. As Cointelegraph reported, calls for an extended rally in stocks are increasing, something which could only be good news for highly-correlated crypto markets.

Analyzing the state of commodities, meanwhile, popular Twitter account Game of Trades predicted that oil would soon lose ground, and that this would have a conspicuous impact on U.S. inflation.

Currently at more than forty-year highs, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is responsible for the Fed rate hikes pressuring risk assets across the board. An about turn in inflation and thus Fed policy could thus swiftly turn the tables.

“Big sellers stepped in for oil on Friday,” one post from the weekend read.

“Looks like oil is poised for a breakdown, taking the CPI with it.”

The global picture when it comes to commodities is not that straightforward, however, with macro analyst Alex Krueger conversely warning that Europe’s energy crisis had not yet played out in market pricing.

For Bitcoin, then, the current recovery is more a “bear market rally” than a true return to strength.

“Yes this is a bear market rally ... for now,” Krueger wrote.

“Thing is if inflation comes down fast enough, which is feasible, and Europe's energy crisis is not exacerbated by a harsh winter, also feasible, this could end up being the beginning of the bull market. Nobody knows as of now.”

Krueger added that the status quo should remain until “at least until the end of August” when fresh Fed events impact the market.

In order of importance, he listed the September key rate decision, September CPI, the Fed’s Jackson Hole summit on August 25 and the August 10 CPI print for July.

Turning to U.S. dollar strength, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) remained at lows not seen for nearly a month on the day, currently below 106.

For Game of Trades, the index was more significant than the numbers. After its parabolic uptrend, a clear change of direction was now visible on the DXY daily chart.

“DXY has broken its parabola. There is only one way a broken parabola ends,” it commented.

U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView

RSI raises questions over price bottom

Turning to on-chain signals, a rebound in one of Bitcoin’s core fundamentals has not been enough to convince analyst Venturefounder that the BTC price bottom is in.

Zooming out to a multi-year view and comparing BTC/USD across market cycles, the popular content creator argued that Bitcoin’s relative strength index (DXY) is still suppressed after its peak in April 2021.

RSI measures how overbought or oversold BTC/USD is at a certain price, and since May has seen its lowest readings on record.

Despite suggesting that Bitcoin is trading wildly lower than its fair value, RSI has yet to regain the “bullish momentum” that characterized the run past $20,000 and beyond at the end of 2020.

In April 2021, Bitcoin hit $58,000 before halving in price by the end of July.

“The only way to see the July 2022 low as the cycle bottom is if you were to see the April 2021 high as the cycle top for this cycle,” Venturefounder stated.

“Bitcoin and Altcoins RSI and bullish momentum peaked in April 2021 and never recovered for the rest of this cycle. Do you think we bottomed?”

Another conspicuous oversold period in RSI came immediately after the March 2020 COVID-19 crash, that event significantly impacting price strength going into the latest block subsidy halving.

BTC/USD, of course, never looked back, going on to reclaim its all-time high of the time around six months later.

BTC/USD 1-mon candle chart (Bitstamp) with RSI. Source: TradingView

Purpose ETF finally adds to holdings

Things could be looking up for institutional Bitcoin involvement as subtle signs of recovery play out in statistics.

The latest such signal comes from the world’s first Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF), the Purpose Bitcoin ETF.

After its holdings suddenly declined by 50% in June, the product is finally adding BTC again, suggesting that demand is no longer falling.

Purpose added 2,600 BTC, something commentator Jan Wuestenfeld additionally noted ended several weeks of dormancy.

“Assets under management still far away from the all-time high, however,” he added.

Purpose Bitcoin ETF holdings chart. Source: Glassnode

The recovery trend is far from omnipresent, however. A look at the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) continues the troublesome trend of lack of demand.

The fund’s premium to spot price, long in fact a discount, is now circling record lows of nearly 35%, data from Coinglass confirms.

Grayscale continues legal action against U.S. regulators over their refusal to allow a spot Bitcoin ETF to launch on the domestic market. GBTC would convert to such an ETF were conditions to allow.

GBTC premium vs. asset holdings vs. BTC/USD chart. Source: Coinglass

New month, new fear

It was a nice ride, but crypto market sentiment is already back in the “fear” zone.

Related: Top 5 cryptocurrencies to watch this week: BTC, BNB, UNI, FIL, THETA

The latest readings from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index confirm that “neutral” sentiment could barely last a day, and that despite high prices prevailing, cold feet are hard to shake.

The Index measures 33/100 as of Aug. 1, still high compared to recent months but already considerably below the highs of 42/100 seen just days ago.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

For research firm Santiment, however, there remains a cause for optimism. The firm’s proprietary metric governing transaction volume relative to overall network value for Bitcoin ended July in “neutral” territory of its own.

The network value to transaction (NVT) token circulation model, after printing bullish divergences in May and June, thus came through at the latest monthly close.

“With a neutral signal now as prices have risen and token circulation has declined slightly, August can move either direction,” Santiment summarized in a Twitter update about the latest numbers.

Bitcoin NVT model. Source: Santiment/ Twitter

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Read More

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Economics

Uber Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: UBER) Unveils New Features That Will Help Enhance Driver’s Experience

On Friday, Uber Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: UBER) unveiled a slew of new features geared at improving the ridesharing application’s driver experiences…

Published

on

On Friday, Uber Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: UBER) unveiled a slew of new features geared at improving the ridesharing application’s driver experiences as drivers continue to struggle with high fuel costs and inflation rates.

Uber drivers to know the amount they will receive for a trip beforehand 

Before accepting a job, drivers all around the country will be able to know precisely the amount they’ll make and where they are going. Additionally, they will be able to view many trip requests simultaneously by using a brand-new feature dubbed Trip Radar. According to Uber, these modifications will also help riders wait less time.

Additionally, the business unveiled the Uber Pro card and checking account, which gives drivers around 7% money back at specific petrol stations. The earnings of the drivers will be put right into the account.

It’s Uber’s most recent effort to assist drivers. To help compensate for the rise in gas prices, the firm increased fares and delivery costs in March. The new alternatives might aid the business in retaining current drivers and luring in new ones.

The business’s driver network had reportedly hit a post-pandemic record, and according to Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, the firm anticipates that driver growth will persist without major incremental incentives investments.

Khosrowshahi stated at the time, “Our need to increase the number of drivers on the platform is nothing new nor is it a surprise … there’s a lot of work ahead of us, but this is a machine that is rolling.”

Uber announces Q2 2022 results 

The company reported its Q2 2022 results in which revenue topped estimates and posted a free cash flow of £382 million. Revenue was $8.07 billion compared to analysts’ estimates of $7.39 billion. Net loss during the quarter was $2.6 billion, with $1.7 billion attributed to investment and stakes revaluation in Grab, aurora, and Zomato.  

Khosrowshahi stated that the company continues to benefit from the growing on-demand and consumer spending changes. Uber’s Eats delivery service had significant growth during the epidemic, but as passengers started taking more rides, its mobility sector’s revenue eclipsed Eats in the first quarter.

Please make sure to read and completely understand our disclaimer at https://www.wallstreetpr.com/disclaimer. While reading this article one must assume that we may be compensated for posting this content on our website.

The post Uber Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: UBER) Unveils New Features That Will Help Enhance Driver’s Experience appeared first on Wall Street PR.

Read More

Continue Reading

Spread & Containment

Monkeypox: demand for vaccines is outstripping supply – this is what’s causing the shortages

Chronic weaknesses in our global vaccine manufacturing and distribution systems may broadly be to blame.

Published

on

The smallpox vaccine is currently being used to protect against monkeypox. PhotobyTawat/ Shutterstock

Over 30,000 cases of monkeypox have been reported in more than 80 countries worldwide in 2022. Most are in countries that have never previously reported monkeypox. While monkeypox is not as transmissible as many respiratory infections (such as COVID-19), it’s still important to curb the spread.

One way to control spread is by vaccinating vulnerable people. Fortunately, we already have vaccines which are very effective at preventing monkeypox. But as case numbers continue to rise, reports are emerging that demand for vaccines is outstripping supply in many parts of the world currently seeing an outbreak, including the US, UK and Europe.

Vaccine supply

There are a number of reasons why we are seeing shortages of the vaccine used to protect against monkeypox. Broadly, it’s due to chronic weaknesses in our global vaccine manufacturing and distribution systems, which make it especially difficult to supply the vaccines needed to protect against new infections and outbreaks.

The vaccine currently being used to protect against monkeypox is the smallpox vaccine, which works because the monkeypox virus is so closely related to smallpox.

Until now, the smallpox vaccine has been a niche product because it’s not been needed since smallpox was eradicated in 1980. Pharmaceutical companies can’t afford to manufacture vast numbers of doses just in case, and few governments can justify buying a vaccine that isn’t used. This means the vaccines currently being administered are from emergency stockpiles that were created to respond to an accidental (or deliberate) release of smallpox.


Read more: Monkeypox Q&A: how do you catch it and what are the risks? An expert explains


As such, there are limited stocks and production capacity globally, so demand is rapidly outstripping supply. Even the US, with one of the largest smallpox vaccine stockpiles, recently ordered 2.5 million additional doses in response to the monkeypox outbreak. But there are reports that the factory in Denmark which makes the world’s only smallpox vaccine approved for monkeypox is temporarily closed, which may further impact the world’s ability to source more vaccine doses. And unfortunately, transferring production to other facilities is not straightforward.

One particular problem for vaccine manufacturers is that it’s hard to predict when or where big outbreaks of infections may happen. Of course, there are some infections that we know consistently require a regular supply of vaccines – such as the influenza virus. But while 1 billion influenza vaccines are produced globally each year, it still takes approximately six months from picking the most important new strains to manufacturing and rolling out jabs.

So even with vaccines in high demand, it isn’t simple to manufacture more doses. This is why we are still striving to innovate ways to rapidly produce new vaccines affordably and at a very large scale.

Vaccines are inherently complicated to make. Because they are made from relatively fragile and complex biological materials (such as a virus), the product has to be exactly right every time. If the formula changes even slightly, it might not work as well – or even increase the risk of side-effects.

Adding to this challenge is the fact that different vaccine products may be manufactured by different methods. For example, the equipment needed to produce a viral vaccine (such as the smallpox vaccine used against monkeypox) will be very different to that used to make COVID-19 RNA vaccines. It’s also slow and expensive to test any necessary modifications or improvements that may be needed to make a vaccine safer and more effective.

Glass vials arranged in a row move through a conveyer belt, where they are filled with the vaccine.
It isn’t just as easy as making more vaccines to meet demand. wacomka/ Shutterstock

Surprisingly, even some simple processes common to all vaccines and other medicines – such as filling doses into vials for distribution to patients – still have a mismatch of capacity. Vaccines are usually manufactured in different locations to packaging facilities, raising logistical hurdles (such as strictly controlled refrigeration requirements) that can further delay distribution. These facilities are used for many different medicines and are usually fully booked years in advance; schedules that are still recovering from COVID-19 disruptions may now be experiencing urgent changes to package the smallpox vaccine from stockpiles.

It also isn’t just a case of developing new monkeypox vaccines that are easier to manufacture. Even with major recent scientific progress, it would take many months to develop a safe and effective new vaccine. For monkeypox, it’s far quicker and simpler to use the existing smallpox vaccine.

What can be done?

Smallpox vaccine production is likely to be increased to meet demand. But until this happens, many countries will have to make best use of what supplies they can access, and rely on other strategies to help curb the virus’s spread.

The most effective way to prevent monkeypox causing further harm is by using an integrated, locally led public health response – vaccines are just one part of this. Testing and contact tracing is vital. If enough infected people in a region can be identified and supported to isolate while they’re infectious, transmission can be blocked.

Given the vaccine shortages, we expect that people don’t need two vaccine doses to be protected against monkeypox. This is why vaccinating the most at-risk groups with one dose now, paired with other public health measures, is the most effective strategy for curbing the spread of monkeypox – especially while vaccine supplies are limited. Second doses can be administered to maximise immunity when supplies do become available.

The current monkeypox outbreak is yet another reminder of the importance of investing in global health, and ensuring there’s more equal access to vaccines and other medical interventions that can help prevent the spread of harmful diseases.

Alexander Edwards does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Read More

Continue Reading

Economics

Is housing inventory growth really slowing down?

The problem with new listings declining now is what will happen if mortgage rates make a solid push lower.
The post Is housing inventory growth really…

Published

on

One of the most important housing market stories in recent weeks has been the decline in new listings, which has slowed the growth rate of total inventory. What does this mean? Some have said this is evidence of a soft landing for housing since we are in August and it doesn’t look like we are going to even get to the peak inventory levels we saw in 2019 this year, or even breach the lower levels of 2019 on the national data.

From the National Association of Realtors:

What I want to talk about is the concern I’ve had throughout this post-COVID-19 housing market: When will we get total inventory back into a range of 1.52 million to 1.93 million? Once that happens, I can finally take the savagely unhealthy housing market theme  off my talking points.

First let’s take a look at the data.

Redfin:

Image-from-iOS-2-1

Realtor.com:

Image-from-iOS-2

Altos Research:

Image-from-iOS

Clearly, we are seeing a slowdown in new listings as the data has been negative now for months. One thing that I have stressed is that higher mortgage rates can create a slowdown in demand and thus allow more inventory to accumulate through a weakness in demand. After March of this year when rates were rising, this was the case, especially when rates ranged between 5% to 6%. Inventory growth is happening much like we saw in 2014 — the last time total inventory grew — which was also the last time mortgage purchase application data went negative year over year. 

However, inventory accumulation due to weakness in demand is only one of many ways to see inventory increase. If you really want to see inventory grow to 2019, 2016, 2014 or even 2012 levels, you need a healthy amount of new listing growth each year. We aren’t talking forced sellers, foreclosures or even short sellers. With just traditional new listings and with higher rates and time, we should be able to hit peak 2019 inventory levels. 

The problem with new listings declining now is what will happen if mortgage rates make a solid push lower. At that point housing inventory could slow even more, pause, and in some cases fall again due to demand. If mortgage rates peaked at 6.25% or 6.50%, that means that the next big move should be lower and that is a risk to getting balance back into the system.

How low do rates need to go?

Mortgage rates have made a move of 1.25% in recent week and I have talked about how low they need to go to make a material shift in the markets. Looking at the most recent mortgage purchase application data, I haven’t seen anything yet to show that demand is coming back in the meaningful way. In fact the recent data shows that even though we saw a positive 1% move week to week, the year-over-year data is still down 19%.

Image-from-iOS-2-copy-2


So as of now, the growth rate of inventory slowing down is a supply issue more than demand picking up in a meaningful way. This is why if rates do fall, we will have more supply and more choices for borrowers, who in some areas won’t have to get into a bidding war for a home. This is something I will be keeping an eye on for the rest of the year, since I do have all six of my recession red flags up, which historically means that rates and bond yields fall.

Two things that I believe are key for a soft landing are rates falling to get housing back in line and inflation growth falling so the Fed can stop with the rate hikes and start cutting rates if the economic data gets even worse.

Inflation!

The recent inflation data did surprise the downside a bit, sending the bond market rallying, stocks higher and mortgage rates falling.

Image-from-iOS-2-copy-3

However, we are far from calling it a victory as inflation growth rate is still very high and we do have some variables that can create supply shortages, such as war and aggression by other countries. 

For today, people cheered the growth rate of inflation falling as they know this is the biggest driver of the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone and more aggressive rate hikes. Also, in general, the mood of Americans is much better when gasoline prices are falling and not rising. However, we need much more aggressive monthly prints heading lower for the Fed to be convinced that inflation is no longer a concern. 

All in all, the decline in new listings does warrant a conversation on how much more growth we will see for the rest of the year. Inventory data is very seasonal and traditionally we see inventory start to fall in October as people start getting ready for the holidays and the New Year, and then in the spring and summer inventory pops up again.

I would remind everyone that the growth rate of inventory, working from all-time lows, was aggressive in the last few months, so some context is needed if we do see some weekly declines in inventory during the summer months. For now, this is due to a lack of new sellers rather than demand picking up. If demand starts to pick up due to falling rates, that is an entirely different conversation we will have, but we haven’t crossed that bridge yet. 

Just remember that American homeowners are just in much better shape these days.

Image-from-iOS-2-copy-4

I know the professional grift online since October of 2021 was that a massive wave of millions of people were going to list their homes to sell at any cost to get out before the housing market crashed. 

However, homeowners don’t operate this way. A traditional home seller is a natural homebuyer, buying another property when they sell. They don’t sell their house to be homeless or purposely sell to rent at a higher cost for no good reason. If we get a job loss recession we can have a further discussion of credit risk profiles, but for now, it shouldn’t be too shocking that new listings are declining, except for the fact it’s happening sooner than later in the year.

The post Is housing inventory growth really slowing down? appeared first on HousingWire.

Read More

Continue Reading

Trending