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Best Bank Stocks To Buy Right Now? 3 Reported Earnings Today

Could these bank stocks be top buys given their stellar performances for the quarter?
The post Best Bank Stocks To Buy Right Now? 3 Reported Earnings Today appeared first on Stock Market News, Quotes, Charts and Financial Information | StockMarket.co…

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3 Bank Stocks To Add To Your October Watchlist

As most seasoned investors would know, bank stocks usually usher in the quarterly earnings season in the stock market. Even now, this remains the case with some of the biggest banks in the U.S. continuing to post solid figures across the board. For the most part, this would be a welcome sign for most investors. Namely, this would be the case with supply chain bottlenecks and the ongoing pandemic potentially decelerating the recovering economy. As such, investors could be turning to banks to get a better feel for how the U.S. economy is doing now. Given the recent figures posted this week, things could be looking up.

Earlier today, Citigroup (NYSE: C), owner of the fourth largest bank locally, saw green across the board. In its third fiscal quarter, the company posted an earnings per share of $2.15 on revenue of $17.15 billion. For comparison, Wall Street’s estimates were $1.65 and $16.97 billion respectively. Not to mention, Citigroup posted a year-over-year surge of 48% in net income. According to the bank, all of this is thanks to its releasing of loan loss reserves and notable growth in its investment banking division. In fact, Citigroup’s investment banking revenue jumped by a solid 39% year-over-year to a cool $1.9 billion for the quarter.

Notably, even the largest U.S. bank, JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) reported stellar figures in its quarterly earnings call yesterday. Overall, JPMorgan posted an earnings per share of $3.74 on revenue of $30.44 billion, topping consensus projections across the board. In the larger scheme of things, the strength in banks could translate to strength in the economy. Whether it is equity or consumer-related services, banks continue to thrive. Because of all this, should investors be watching these top bank stocks reporting earnings in the stock market today?

Best Bank Stocks To Buy [Or Sell] In October 2021

Bank of America Corporation

Bank of America (BAC) is a multinational investment bank and financial services holding company with headquarters in North Carolina. In fact, it serves a wide range of customers, from individuals to small and middle-market businesses and large corporations, totaling approximately 66 million consumer and small business clients. Impressively, the company’s award-winning digital banking serves approximately 41 million active users, with approximately 32 million of them being mobile users. BAC stock currently trades at $43.92 as of 10:24 a.m. ET.

Today, the company reported its third-quarter financials for fiscal 2021. Diving in, net income rose by 58% year-over-year to $7.7 billion or $0.85 per diluted share. A notable chunk of this income came from its consumer banking segment at $3 billion. The company says that it saw record consumer checking accounts at 34.2 million and also combined credit and debit card spending rose by 21% to $201 billion. Also, its global wealth and investment management segment posted a record net income of $1.2 billion.

BAC also reported a revenue increase of 12% to $22.8 billion for the quarter. CEO Brian Moynihan had this to say, “We reported strong results as the economy continued to improve and our businesses regained the organic customer growth momentum we saw before the pandemic. Deposit growth was strong and loan balances increased for the second consecutive quarter, leading to an improvement in net interest income even as interest rates remained low.” All things considered, is BAC stock worth adding to your portfolio right now?

BAC stock chart
Source: TD Ameritrade TOS

[Read More] Best Artificial Intelligence Stocks To Buy Right Now? 5 To Watch

Wells Fargo & Company

Next up, we have Wells Fargo, another bank stock that has just reported its earnings today. In essence, the company is a leading financial services company with $1.9 trillion in assets. It proudly serves one in three U.S. households and more than 10% of small businesses in the U.S. It is also the leading middle-market banking provider in the U.S. WFC stock currently trades at $45.64 as of 10:24 a.m. ET.

In its latest quarterly report, the company saw its profit increase by nearly 60% to $5.12 billion, or an earnings per share of $1.22. This topped the consensus estimate of 99 cents per share. Total revenue for the quarter was $18.8 billion. The company said that it is making investments in risk and regulatory-related work that come alongside investments in improving customer experience. This would include new digital and mobile capabilities, a new digital infrastructure strategy, and new products with unique value propositions like the Wells Fargo Reflect Card.

Furthermore, the company repurchased 114.2 million shares or $5.3 billion of common stock in this third quarter. Wells Fargo also increased its common stock dividend to $0.20 per share. The bank says that it continues to improve operating effectiveness and financial returns, in addition to the benefits it is experiencing from the economic recovery. Given the impressive financials this quarter, will you say that WFC stock is a top bank stock to consider owning right now?

best bank stocks (WFC stock chart)
Source: TD Ameritrade TOS

[Read More] Best Dividend Stocks To Buy Today? 3 To Watch Before July 2021

Morgan Stanley

Another banking titan in focus today would be Morgan Stanley. As with most of its peers, the firm specializes in offering wealth management, investment banking, and commercial financial services. Also similar to its peers, Morgan Stanley reported its latest fiscal quarter earnings figures earlier today. Because of this, MS stock could be in the limelight now. As it stands, the company’s shares currently trade at $98.79 as of 10:24 a.m. ET after gaining by over 40% year-to-date.

To highlight, Morgan Stanley raked in a total revenue of $14.75 billion for the quarter, exceeding estimates of $14 billion. Additionally, the company smashed earnings per share estimates as well. This is evident as its earnings per share for the quarter came in at $1.98 versus projections of $1.68. Furthermore, the bank is now looking at year-over-year gains of over 25% in both its revenue and net income. All of this would serve to highlight the company’s current momentum amidst a recovering economy.

According to Morgan Stanley, its acquisition of E-Trade and Eaton Vance are key growth drivers for the quarter. As a result of this move, the company’s wealth and asset management operations have and continue to grow. So much so that the bank attributes $400 billion in net new client assets to said acquisitions. CEO James Gorman highlighted that Morgan Stanley now manages total combined client assets of $6.2 trillion. Would all of this make MS stock a top pick among its bank stock peers now?

MS stock chart
Source: TD Ameritrade TOS

The post Best Bank Stocks To Buy Right Now? 3 Reported Earnings Today appeared first on Stock Market News, Quotes, Charts and Financial Information | StockMarket.com.

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Economics

Peter Schiff: Transitory Permanence

Peter Schiff: Transitory Permanence

Via SchiffGold.com,

The inflation that we were emphatically told would be transitory and unmoored continues to persist and entrench. As the troubles gather momentum Washington is doing its best to ignore..

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Peter Schiff: Transitory Permanence

Via SchiffGold.com,

The inflation that we were emphatically told would be transitory and unmoored continues to persist and entrench. As the troubles gather momentum Washington is doing its best to ignore the problem or actively make it worse.

The latest batch of data shows that the Consumer Price Index rose 5.4% in September, the 5th consecutive month that year over year inflation came in at more than 5%. The figure rises to 6.5% if we project the inflation levels of the first 9 months of 2021 to the entire calendar year. The last time we had to contend with numbers like these, Jimmy Carter was telling us all to put on our sweaters.

Recent developments should be sounding the alarms. Whereas earlier in the year inflation was largely driven by supercharged price increases in narrow sectors, such as used cars and hotel rooms, it’s now occurring in a much wider spectrum of goods and services.

In September, the cost of used autos fell month over month (but are still up 24% year over year), but that didn’t help the overall CPI, which saw increases just about everywhere else. Over the past 12 months: beef prices are up 17.6%, seafood prices up 10.6%, home appliances up 10.5%, furniture and bedding up 11.2%, and new cars up 8.7%.

Even more alarming is that oil is up over $80 per barrel for the first time in almost 10 years and many analysts see $100 in the near future. That has translated to more than a $1 increase in per gallon gasoline prices, a 50% increase in a year. Home heating oil prices are already up 42% year over year and are expected to spike up again when winter demand peaks.  For many low-income residents of the North and Upper Midwest, these types of increases could be very hard to bear, particularly if we have a cold winter.

As I have said many times before, the biggest flaw in the way we measure inflation (and there are many of them) is how the government deals with housing. While the Case Shiller Home Price Index is up more than 20% year over year, and national rents are up more than 12% over the same time frame, the CPI has largely ignored these increases in housing costs. Instead, the government relies on the dubious and amorphous concept of “Owners Equivalent Rent” which asks homeowners to guess how much they would have to pay to rent a house of similar quality to the one they to the one they own. Conveniently, that meaningless figure, which constitutes almost 30% of the total CPI, is only up 3% year over year. If actual rent increases were used instead, the CPI would be almost three full percentage points higher.

In fact, relying on the government to tell us the truth about inflation is a bit like asking high school students to grade their own report cards. There are countless incentives that exist institutionally for the government to underreport inflation. It allows them to make stealth cuts to Social Security, to create higher nominal incomes and capital “gains” to tax, and to minimize the interest rates it pays on over $28 trillion in debt as inflation. But since GDP is adjusted for inflation, it also makes economic growth appear higher than it really is.  The methodology for computing the CPI index was specifically designed to minimize the impact of rising prices. But I don’t believe that this is a conspiracy. Once you understand how institutional bias works, how careers are made by finding new plausible ways to underreport inflation, and how they are ruined by claiming the opposite, you can see how the numbers get farther away from reality with each passing year.

But the disconnect has become so obvious that top officials at the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department have begun warning the public to prepare for higher prices. In her latest exercise of goal post moving, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said, “I believe that price increases are transitory, but that doesn’t mean they’ll go away over the next several months.” We can expect that months will soon turn into years, as the definition of “transitory,” gets ever more elastic.

This week the government announced that the inflation-adjusted cost of living increases for Social Security payments in 2022 will be 5.9%, the highest such increase since 1982. In addition to throwing yet another log on the government deficit fire, the increase is a direct admission that inflation is not going away.

Despite the marginal increase in wages that the Biden Administration likes to talk about, or the cost of living increases for our seniors, the average American makes less money. After adjusting for inflation real hourly earnings in the United States have dropped 1.9% so far this year. This is the stagflation that I have been warning about. Welcome back to the Carter Administration. We can expect Joe Biden to break out our sweaters if home heating bills get too high this winter.

Team Biden has been working overtime to suggest that the price increases and supply shortages are resulting from temporary bottlenecks at port facilities. Imports are particularly sensitive as our trade deficit has widened to record levels in recent months, making Americans ever more reliant on overseas goods. To combat the problem the Administration has ordered that some ports begin to operate 24 hours a day. (Left unsaid was the very fact that American ports – due to the strength of the Longshoreman’s Union – operate at very spare schedules versus foreign counterparts).

But the effect of this order will be far milder than the Administration hopes. Firstly, it is unclear how many port facilities will comply. Some have noted for instance that the Port of Los Angeles agreed to go 24 hours at only one of its six docks. (Currently, the wait time to enter that port is approaching three weeks). And secondly, most industry analysts note that the problem is not the hours of the dock facilities themselves but the shortfalls of the domestic trucking industry to move the goods once they arrive. Not only are we struggling with a lack of drivers, who struggle with government regulations that sharply limit the number of hours they are allowed to drive, but a lack of shipping containers to put back on the ships. Since many ships refuse to leave unloaded, which greatly reduces their profitability, America needs to first solve a host of problems to get the ports in better order.

But what we are seeing in a larger sense are the fruits of 15 years of bad investments in things that we don’t need and very little investment in the things we do. The ultra-low interest rates that have become the bedrock of our bubble economy have channeled investment capital into the wrong places. These low rates have encouraged corporations to borrow recklessly to buy back shares and inflate stock prices. Such moves have enriched shareholders but have done little to expand productive capacity.

Low rates have also led to runaway speculation in untested and unneeded industries. We have seen massive investments in social media, e-commerce, entertainment, cryptocurrencies, financial technology, and most recently Non-Fungible Tokens (NFT’s). As a result, we have really built out our capacity to post videos, buy things online, and pay for them in new ways. But we have invested comparatively little in boring industries like manufacturing, energy, transportation, and agriculture. As a result, we have all sorts of ways to buy stuff, and gimmicks for how to pay for it later, but we lack the capacity to produce and distribute all the goods we want to buy in the first place.

What’s worse is that given the current policies of the Biden Administration, none of that is going to change anytime soon. His expanded social safety net programs, overly generous unemployment benefits, higher taxes and regulation, and unneeded vaccine mandates are discouraging workers from working and employers from hiring. The American workforce is more than five million workers smaller than it was before the pandemic. That is not an accident. If the Democrats get their caucus together long enough to pass even a slimmed-down version of Biden’s Build Back Better plan look for all these problems to get worse.

With fewer workers working, supplies of goods and services have diminished. Government will look to replace the lost production with even more monetary and fiscal stimulus, which just leads to more inflation, financial speculation, and rising asset prices, largely benefiting the wealthy, and falling the hardest on the poor who have no appreciating assets to compensate for the rising cost of living.

But rather than fixing the problem, our current leaders are mostly worried about equity and diversity. The five leading candidates to replace Jerome Powell, if he is not renominated, all are either female or African American. Now I have no problems with hiring women or minorities in key positions. But if all your candidates come exclusively from those groups, then it’s clear that identity is more important than competency at this moment in time. But if there was ever a time that we needed competence, it’s now.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/22/2021 - 09:10

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Spread & Containment

UK Banks – Digital Dinosaurs

UK Banks – Digital Dinosaurs

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

“Tuppence wisely invested in the bank…”

As UK bank reporting season kicks off, the dull, boring, predictable UK banks should look good. But the reality…

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UK Banks – Digital Dinosaurs

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

“Tuppence wisely invested in the bank…”

As UK bank reporting season kicks off, the dull, boring, predictable UK banks should look good. But the reality is they are dinosaurs – their failure to digitise and evolve leaves them vulnerable to tech-savy FinTechs and Challenger filling their niche. If the future of modern finance is a Tech hypersonic missile… British Banks are still building steam trains. 

Today see’s the start of the UK bank reporting season. Yawn….

I wrote a piece for the Evening Standard y’day – Another set of numbers to disguise the rot. (I’ve reused some of it this morning – lazy, eh?) Exactly as I predicted in that note, Barclays came in strong this morning with a decent lift from its investment banking businesses. Lloyds and HSBC will also produce acceptable numbers and limited losses on post pandemic recovery.  The sector outlook looks positive, the regulator will allow them to increase dividends, and there is higher income potential from rising interest rates.

But… would you buy the UK banks?

They face substantial market and ongoing pandemic risk. The cost of economic reality falls heavy across them all. This morning the headlines are about Medical groups screaming out for a renewal of lockdown measures to protect the NHS – a move that will 100% nail-on recession and cause multiple small businesses to give up. The threat of recession in the UK is pronounced – exacerbated by global supply chain crisis and risks of policy mistakes. The worst outcome for banks would be stagflation resulting in exploding loan impairments.

Lloyds is the most vulnerable to the UK economy – hence it’s underperformed the others. Even without renewed Covid measures, potential policy mistakes by the Bank of England in raising interest rates too early, or by government by raising taxes and austerity spending, will hit business and consumer sentiment hardest, causing the stock prices to crumble back towards its low back in Sept 2020 when it hit £24.72. It’s got the largest mortgage exposure – but no one really expects a significant housing sell-off. (When no-one expects it – is when to worry!)

If you believe the UK’s economic potential is under-stated, then Lloyds has the best upside stock potential among the big three. If the economy recovers strongly, Lloyds goes up. If it stumbles, then so will Lloyds!

Barclays is a more difficult call. It’s a broader, more diversified name. It retains an element of “whoosh” from its markets businesses – which have delivered excellent returns from its capital markets businesses fuelled by low rates, but it also runs a higher-than-average reputational risk for generating embarrassing headlines. But, when the global economy normalises, higher interest rates will impact the fee income of all the investment banks, thus impacting Barclays to a greater extent than Lloyds. Barclay’s international business gives it some hedge against a UK economic slide.

HSBC is the most complex call. The UK banking operation is a rounding error compared to the Bank’s Hong Kong business. The bank is pivoting towards Asia, orbiting China and other high-growth Far East economies where it seeks to attract rising middle-class wealth. It’s underperformed due to a distaste among global investors for its China business, but also the perception it’s just too big a bank to manage effectively.

If its China strategy was to pay off, it will be a long-term winner. But that’s no means certain – Premier Xi’s crackdown on Chinese Tech threatens to morph into a China first policy, and the space for a strong foreign bank in China’s banking system looks questionable, even as the developing crisis in real-estate could pull it lower.

Ok – so good for UK banks…

Whatever the respective bank numbers show this week, the banks will remain core holdings for many investors. Generally, big banks are perceived to be “relatively” safe. Regulation has reduced their market risk profiles, and strengthened capital bases since the post-Lehman unpleasantness in 2008 which saw RBS rescued by government.

Conventional investment wisdom says the more “dull, boring and predictable” a bank is, the more valuable it will be perceived in terms of stable predictable dividends, sound risk management, and for not surprising investors. Strong banks are perceived to be less vulnerable to competition with deep moats around their business.

Since 2008 that’s changed – in ways the incumbent banks have completely missed. The costs of entry have tumbled as banking has evolved into a completely different service. New, more nimble Fin-Techs like Revolut, digital challenger banks such as Starling, and cheaper foreign competitors, including the Yanks, are not only eating their lunch, but dinner as well.

The old established UK banks don’t seem to have a clue it’s happening. These incumbent banks look like dinosaurs wondering what that bright shiny light getting bigger in the sky might be. Despite proudly boasting of hundreds years of history, they are constrained by old tech ledger systems and never built centralised data-lakes from their information on individuals or the financial behaviours of crowds to improve and develop their services and income streams.

The future of banking is going to be about Tech and how effectively banks compete in a marketplace of online digital facilities and services. Banks that you use tech smartly will see their costs tumble, freeing up resources to do more, better! (When I ran a major bank’s FIG (Financial Institutions Group) about 100 years ago – the best banks were those with lowest cost-to-income ratio!)

There is an excellent article outlining FinTechs and Challengers from Chris Skinner this morning: Europe’s Challenger Banks are Challenging (and worth more than the old names). Let me pluck a bite from his piece: “Revolut is the most valuable UK tech start-up in history and the eighth biggest private company in the world, worth an estimated US$33 billion, according to CB Insights. Revolut has more than 16 million customers worldwide and sees over 150 million transactions per month.”

The new generation of nimbler Fin Techs and Challengers can innovate product offerings with sophisticated new systems and software. In contrast, UK bank IT departments are engaged in digital archaeology.  I understand only 17% of Senior Tech positions are held by women. Within the banks, I’m told its still a boys club, where the best paid IT jobs are for ancient bearded D&D playing coders brought into to patch 50 year-old archaic systems. Legacy systems leave the big banks with impossible catch up costs.

It’s probably unfair to say the big UK banks don’t know what’s happening – their management can’t be that unaware? Surely not…. But…. Maybe..

Although the banks brag how well diversified they are with over 37% of UK board members female – how much have they really changed? Hiring on the basis of diversity is a fad. At the risk of lighting the blue-touch paper and this comment exploding in my face, I would hazard to suggest the appointment of senior ladies who’ve worked their way up the existing financial system simply risks confirmation-bias on how things are conventionally done in banking.

They might do better hiring outside movers and shakers – rather than listening to themselves.

The bottom line is its not just their failure to innovate tech that’s a crisis. Over the years the UK banks have become increasingly sclerotic – slow to shift and adapt. The middle to senior levels of banking are hamstrung by bureaucracy, a satisficing culture, stifled innovation, a compliance fearful mindset, and senior management fixated on impressing the regulators first and foremost.

If the future of modern finance is a Tech hypersonic missile… British Banks are still building steam trains.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/22/2021 - 05:00

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Government

Pound yawns after mixed UK data

The British pound continues to have an uneventful week and the lack of activity has continued in the Friday session. GBP/USD has been trading close to the 1.38 level for most of the week and is currently at 1.3804, up 0.09% on the day. UK Retail Sales…

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The British pound continues to have an uneventful week and the lack of activity has continued in the Friday session. GBP/USD has been trading close to the 1.38 level for most of the week and is currently at 1.3804, up 0.09% on the day.

UK Retail Sales dip

UK Retail Sales declined by 0.2% in September. This is a cause for concern, given that retail sales have now declined for three straight months, pointing to ongoing weakness in consumer spending. Retail sales remain subdued despite the relaxation of Covid restrictions in July, which has not resulted in consumers increasing their spending. On a positive note, retail sales remain above the pre-pandemic levels (February 2020).

There was better news from the September PMIs. Both the manufacturing and services PMIs accelerated and beat expectations, with readings of 57.7 and 58.0, respectively. This points to strong expansion in both sectors.

The markets have priced in a November rate hike, likely by 15 basis points. Although this would be a relatively small increase, it would mark the first rate hike by a major central bank since the Covid pandemic began. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey is poised to raise rates in order to curb inflation, which is running above 3%, well above the bank’s target of 2%. A majority of MPC members are expected to follow suit, but a vocal minority of members are warning that the move is unwarranted and could dampen the recovery and hurt growth and jobs.

In the US, positive data on Thursday gave the dollar a boost, although the pound has recovered much of these losses on Friday. The dollar index continues to trade in a range between 93.50 and 94.00 and is at 93.67 in Europe. A drop below 93.50 could see the index fall to the 0.93 line.

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GBP/USD Technical Analysis

  • On the upside, there is a triple top at 1.3830. A close above this line would leave the pair room to climb until resistance at the round number of 1.3900
  • There are support levels at 1.368 and 1.3492

 

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