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Automotive lead-acid battery market size to increase by USD 4,077.41 million: Market research insights highlight the increasing number of electronic applications in passenger cars as a key driver – Technavio
Automotive lead-acid battery market size to increase by USD 4,077.41 million: Market research insights highlight the increasing number of electronic applications in passenger cars as a key driver – Technavio
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NEW YORK, Jan. 24, 2023
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Automotive lead-acid battery market size to increase by USD 4,077.41 million: Market research insights highlight the increasing number of electronic applications in passenger cars as a key driver - Technavio
PR Newswire
NEW YORK, Jan. 24, 2023
NEW YORK, Jan. 24, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- According to Technavio, the automotive lead-acid battery market will witness a YOY growth of 2.41% between 2022 and 2023. The market is segmented by application (aftermarket and OEM), vehicle type (passenger and commercial), and geography (APAC, North America, Europe, South America, and Middle East and Africa). The automotive lead-acid battery market size is estimated to increase by USD 4,077.41 million at a CAGR of 2.84% from 2022 to 2027 - Request a sample report
Automotive lead-acid battery market - Vendor insights
The global automotive lead-acid battery market is fragmented, and the vendors are deploying various strategies to compete in the market. Prominent vendors are working on developing efficient automotive lead-acid batteries for customers. The rising electronic content in automobiles and the growing adoption of EVs are increasing the need for batteries, which is driving the demand for automotive lead-acid batteries. Such factors are expected to intensify the competition in the market during the forecast period.
The report analyzes the market's competitive landscape and offers information on several market vendors, including:
- Amara Raja Group
- Banner GmbH
- C and D Technologies Inc.
- Camel Group Co. Ltd.
- Clarios
- Crown Battery Manufacturing Co.
- CSB Energy Technology Co. Ltd.
- East Penn Manufacturing Co. Inc.
- EnerSys
- EverExceed Industrial Co. Ltd.
- Exide Industries Ltd.
- GS Yuasa Corp.
- HBL Power Systems Ltd.
- Johnson Controls International Plc.
- Leoch International Technology Ltd.
- For details on vendors and their offerings – Buy the report!
Automotive lead-acid battery market - Geographical analysis
APAC will provide maximum growth opportunities in the automotive lead-acid battery market during the forecast period. According to our research report, the region will account for 61% of the global market growth.
China, India, and Japan are the major markets for automotive lead-acid batteries in APAC. The increasing disposable income and the launch of new car models by OEMs are driving the market growth. APAC has the largest number of potential first-time buyers of passenger cars, which is leading to growth in the sales of such cars. These factors will drive the automotive lead-acid batteries market in the region during the forecast period.
Know more about this market's geographical distribution along with a detailed analysis of the top regions: https://www.technavio.com/report/automotive-lead-acid-battery-market-industry-analysis?v1
Automotive lead-acid battery market - Key segment analysis
The aftermarket segment will grow at a significant rate during the forecast period. Lead-acid batteries provide a quick power boost in a short time. Hence, they dominate the automotive aftermarket. In the automotive industry, lead-acid battery is the only available battery technology for scalable link interface (SLI) applications due to its high cold-cranking performance. The low cost of lead-acid batteries will drive the growth of this segment dominance during the forecast period.
Download a sample to obtain additional highlights and key points on various market segments and their impact in the coming years.
Automotive lead-acid battery market - Key market drivers & challenges
The increasing number of electronic applications in passenger cars is driving the global automotive lead-acid battery market growth. Some of the technologies used in passenger cars include global positioning systems (GPS), music systems, Bluetooth, and wireless charging. The adoption of electronic applications in passenger cars is increasing owing to the increasing demand for improved navigation systems, safety, and comfort. Hence, there is a high demand for efficient batteries, such as automotive lead-acid batteries, which can power electronic components. Such factors are expected to propel the growth of the global automotive lead-acid battery market during the forecast period.
Stringent laws to prevent lead pollution are challenging the global automotive lead-acid battery market growth. The increase in the production of lead-acid batteries can result in lead pollution. These batteries require high quantities of lead, which is often mixed with exhaust gases. To curb lead poisoning, governments of many countries have implemented stringent laws. For instance, the Government of China has shut down most lead-acid battery manufacturing plants and has also enforced stringent regulations and standards for battery disposal and production. Such regulations will hinder the growth of the market during the forecast period.
- CAGR of the market during the forecast period
- Detailed information on factors that will drive the growth of the automotive lead-acid battery market between 2023 and 2027
- Precise estimation of the size of the automotive lead-acid battery market and its contribution to the parent market
- Accurate predictions about upcoming trends and changes in consumer behavior
- Growth of the market across APAC, North America, Europe, South America, and Middle East and Africa
- Thorough analysis of the market's competitive landscape and detailed information about vendors
- Comprehensive analysis of factors that will challenge the growth of automotive lead-acid battery market vendors
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The automotive Li-ion battery market size is expected to increase by USD 38.96 billion from 2021 to 2026. This report extensively covers automotive Li-ion battery market segmentation by vehicle type (BEV and PHEV) and geography (APAC, Europe, North America, South America, and MEA).
The carbon black in lead-acid battery market size is expected to increase by USD 116.06 million from 2021 to 2026, and the market's growth momentum will accelerate at a CAGR of 4.45%. This report extensively covers segmentation by battery type (flooded lead-acid battery and valve regulated lead-acid (VRLA) battery) and geography (APAC, North America, Europe, South America, and Middle East and Africa).
Automotive Lead-acid Battery Market Scope | |
Report Coverage | Details |
Page number | 168 |
Base year | 2022 |
Historic period | 2017-2021 |
Forecast period | 2023-2027 |
Growth momentum & CAGR | Accelerate at a CAGR of 2.84% |
Market growth 2023-2027 | USD 4,077.41 million |
Market structure | Fragmented |
YoY growth 2022-2023 (%) | 2.41 |
Regional analysis | APAC, North America, Europe, South America, and Middle East and Africa |
Performing market contribution | APAC at 61% |
Key countries | US, China, Japan, India, and Germany |
Competitive landscape | Leading vendors, market positioning of vendors, competitive strategies, and industry risks |
Key companies profiled | Accumulatorenwerke HOPPECKE Carl Zoellner and Sohn GmbH, Amara Raja Group, Banner GmbH, C and D Technologies Inc., Camel Group Co. Ltd., Clarios, Crown Battery Manufacturing Co., CSB Energy Technology Co. Ltd., East Penn Manufacturing Co. Inc., EnerSys, EverExceed Industrial Co. Ltd., Exide Industries Ltd., GS Yuasa Corp., HBL Power Systems Ltd., Johnson Controls International Plc., Leoch International Technology Ltd., MIDAC SpA, Panasonic Holdings Corp., Robert Bosch GmbH, and The Furukawa Battery Co. Ltd. |
Market dynamics | Parent market analysis, market growth inducers and obstacles, fast-growing and slow-growing segment analysis, COVID-19 impact and recovery analysis and future consumer dynamics, and market condition analysis for the forecast period. |
Customization purview | If our report has not included the data that you are looking for, you can reach out to our analysts and get segments customized. |
Browse for Technavio's utilities market reports
1 Executive Summary
- 1.1 Market overview
- Exhibit 01: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Overview
- Exhibit 02: Executive Summary – Data Table on Market Overview
- Exhibit 03: Executive Summary – Chart on Global Market Characteristics
- Exhibit 04: Executive Summary – Chart on Market by Geography
- Exhibit 05: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Segmentation by Application
- Exhibit 06: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Segmentation by Vehicle Type
- Exhibit 07: Executive Summary – Chart on Incremental Growth
- Exhibit 08: Executive Summary – Data Table on Incremental Growth
- Exhibit 09: Executive Summary – Chart on Vendor Market Positioning
2 Market Landscape
- 2.1 Market ecosystem
- Exhibit 10: Parent market
- Exhibit 11: Market Characteristics
3 Market Sizing
- 3.1 Market definition
- Exhibit 12: Offerings of vendors included in the market definition
- 3.2 Market segment analysis
- Exhibit 13: Market segments
- 3.3 Market size 2022
- 3.4 Market outlook: Forecast for 2022-2027
- Exhibit 14: Chart on Global - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
- Exhibit 15: Data Table on Global - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
- Exhibit 16: Chart on Global Market: Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
- Exhibit 17: Data Table on Global Market: Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
4 Historic Market Size
- 4.1 Global automotive lead-acid battery market 2017 - 2021
- Exhibit 18: Historic Market Size – Data Table on Global automotive lead-acid battery market 2017 - 2021 ($ million)
- 4.2 Application Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021
- Exhibit 19: Historic Market Size – Application Segment 2017 - 2021 ($ million)
- 4.3 Vehicle type Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021
- Exhibit 20: Historic Market Size – Vehicle type Segment 2017 - 2021 ($ million)
- 4.4 Geography Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021
- Exhibit 21: Historic Market Size – Geography Segment 2017 - 2021 ($ million)
- 4.5 Country Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021
- Exhibit 22: Historic Market Size – Country Segment 2017 - 2021 ($ million)
5 Five Forces Analysis
- 5.1 Five forces summary
- Exhibit 23: Five forces analysis - Comparison between 2022 and 2027
- 5.2 Bargaining power of buyers
- Exhibit 24: Chart on Bargaining power of buyers – Impact of key factors 2022 and 2027
- 5.3 Bargaining power of suppliers
- Exhibit 25: Bargaining power of suppliers – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
- 5.4 Threat of new entrants
- Exhibit 26: Threat of new entrants – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
- 5.5 Threat of substitutes
- Exhibit 27: Threat of substitutes – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
- 5.6 Threat of rivalry
- Exhibit 28: Threat of rivalry – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
- 5.7 Market condition
- Exhibit 29: Chart on Market condition - Five forces 2022 and 2027
6 Market Segmentation by Application
- 6.1 Market segments
- Exhibit 30: Chart on Application - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
- Exhibit 31: Data Table on Application - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
- 6.2 Comparison by Application
- Exhibit 32: Chart on Comparison by Application
- Exhibit 33: Data Table on Comparison by Application
- 6.3 Aftermarket - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
- Exhibit 34: Chart on Aftermarket - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
- Exhibit 35: Data Table on Aftermarket - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
- Exhibit 36: Chart on Aftermarket - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
- Exhibit 37: Data Table on Aftermarket - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
- 6.4 OEM - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
- Exhibit 38: Chart on OEM - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
- Exhibit 39: Data Table on OEM - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
- Exhibit 40: Chart on OEM - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
- Exhibit 41: Data Table on OEM - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
- 6.5 Market opportunity by Application
- Exhibit 42: Market opportunity by Application ($ million)
7 Market Segmentation by Vehicle Type
- 7.1 Market segments
- Exhibit 43: Chart on Vehicle Type - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
- Exhibit 44: Data Table on Vehicle Type - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
- 7.2 Comparison by Vehicle Type
- Exhibit 45: Chart on Comparison by Vehicle Type
- Exhibit 46: Data Table on Comparison by Vehicle Type
- 7.3 Passenger - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
- Exhibit 47: Chart on Passenger - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
- Exhibit 48: Data Table on Passenger - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
- Exhibit 49: Chart on Passenger - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
- Exhibit 50: Data Table on Passenger - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
- 7.4 Commercial - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
- Exhibit 51: Chart on Commercial - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
- Exhibit 52: Data Table on Commercial - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
- Exhibit 53: Chart on Commercial - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
- Exhibit 54: Data Table on Commercial - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
- 7.5 Market opportunity by Vehicle Type
- Exhibit 55: Market opportunity by Vehicle Type ($ million)
8 Customer Landscape
- 8.1 Customer landscape overview
- Exhibit 56: Analysis of price sensitivity, lifecycle, customer purchase basket, adoption rates, and purchase criteria
9 Geographic Landscape
- 9.1 Geographic segmentation
- Exhibit 57: Chart on Market share by geography 2022-2027 (%)
- Exhibit 58: Data Table on Market share by geography 2022-2027 (%)
- 9.2 Geographic comparison
- Exhibit 59: Chart on Geographic comparison
- Exhibit 60: Data Table on Geographic comparison
- 9.3 APAC - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
- Exhibit 61: Chart on APAC - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
- Exhibit 62: Data Table on APAC - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
- Exhibit 63: Chart on APAC - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
- Exhibit 64: Data Table on APAC - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
- 9.4 North America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
- Exhibit 65: Chart on North America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
- Exhibit 66: Data Table on North America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
- Exhibit 67: Chart on North America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
- Exhibit 68: Data Table on North America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
- 9.5 Europe - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
- Exhibit 69: Chart on Europe - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
- Exhibit 70: Data Table on Europe - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
- Exhibit 71: Chart on Europe - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
- Exhibit 72: Data Table on Europe - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
- 9.6 South America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
- Exhibit 73: Chart on South America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
- Exhibit 74: Data Table on South America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
- Exhibit 75: Chart on South America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
- Exhibit 76: Data Table on South America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
- 9.7 Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
- Exhibit 77: Chart on Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
- Exhibit 78: Data Table on Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
- Exhibit 79: Chart on Middle East and Africa - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
- Exhibit 80: Data Table on Middle East and Africa - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
- 9.8 China - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
- Exhibit 81: Chart on China - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
- Exhibit 82: Data Table on China - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
- Exhibit 83: Chart on China - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
- Exhibit 84: Data Table on China - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
- 9.9 US - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
- Exhibit 85: Chart on US - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
- Exhibit 86: Data Table on US - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
- Exhibit 87: Chart on US - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
- Exhibit 88: Data Table on US - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
- 9.10 Japan - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
- Exhibit 89: Chart on Japan - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
- Exhibit 90: Data Table on Japan - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
- Exhibit 91: Chart on Japan - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
- Exhibit 92: Data Table on Japan - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
- 9.11 India - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
- Exhibit 93: Chart on India - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
- Exhibit 94: Data Table on India - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
- Exhibit 95: Chart on India - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
- Exhibit 96: Data Table on India - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
- 9.12 Germany - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
- Exhibit 97: Chart on Germany - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
- Exhibit 98: Data Table on Germany - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
- Exhibit 99: Chart on Germany - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
- Exhibit 100: Data Table on Germany - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
- 9.13 Market opportunity by geography
- Exhibit 101: Market opportunity by geography ($ million)
10 Drivers, Challenges, and Trends
- 10.1 Market drivers
- 10.2 Market challenges
- 10.3 Impact of drivers and challenges
- Exhibit 102: Impact of drivers and challenges in 2022 and 2027
- 10.4 Market trends
11 Vendor Landscape
- 11.1 Overview
- 11.2 Vendor landscape
- Exhibit 103: Overview on Criticality of inputs and Factors of differentiation
- 11.3 Landscape disruption
- Exhibit 104: Overview on factors of disruption
- 11.4 Industry risks
- Exhibit 105: Impact of key risks on business
12 Vendor Analysis
- 12.1 Vendors covered
- Exhibit 106: Vendors covered
- 12.2 Market positioning of vendors
- Exhibit 107: Matrix on vendor position and classification
- 12.3 Accumulatorenwerke HOPPECKE Carl Zoellner and Sohn GmbH
- Exhibit 108: Accumulatorenwerke HOPPECKE Carl Zoellner and Sohn GmbH - Overview
- Exhibit 109: Accumulatorenwerke HOPPECKE Carl Zoellner and Sohn GmbH - Product / Service
- Exhibit 110: Accumulatorenwerke HOPPECKE Carl Zoellner and Sohn GmbH - Key offerings
- 12.4 Amara Raja Group
- Exhibit 111: Amara Raja Group - Overview
- Exhibit 112: Amara Raja Group - Business segments
- Exhibit 113: Amara Raja Group - Key offerings
- Exhibit 114: Amara Raja Group - Segment focus
- 12.5 Banner GmbH
- Exhibit 115: Banner GmbH - Overview
- Exhibit 116: Banner GmbH - Product / Service
- Exhibit 117: Banner GmbH - Key offerings
- 12.6 C and D Technologies Inc.
- Exhibit 118: C and D Technologies Inc. - Overview
- Exhibit 119: C and D Technologies Inc. - Product / Service
- Exhibit 120: C and D Technologies Inc. - Key offerings
- 12.7 Camel Group Co. Ltd.
- Exhibit 121: Camel Group Co. Ltd. - Overview
- Exhibit 122: Camel Group Co. Ltd. - Product / Service
- Exhibit 123: Camel Group Co. Ltd. - Key offerings
- 12.8 Clarios
- Exhibit 124: Clarios - Overview
- Exhibit 125: Clarios - Product / Service
- Exhibit 126: Clarios - Key news
- Exhibit 127: Clarios - Key offerings
- 12.9 Crown Battery Manufacturing Co.
- Exhibit 128: Crown Battery Manufacturing Co. - Overview
- Exhibit 129: Crown Battery Manufacturing Co. - Product / Service
- Exhibit 130: Crown Battery Manufacturing Co. - Key offerings
- 12.10 East Penn Manufacturing Co. Inc.
- Exhibit 131: East Penn Manufacturing Co. Inc. - Overview
- Exhibit 132: East Penn Manufacturing Co. Inc. - Product / Service
- Exhibit 133: East Penn Manufacturing Co. Inc. - Key news
- Exhibit 134: East Penn Manufacturing Co. Inc. - Key offerings
- 12.11 EnerSys
- Exhibit 135: EnerSys - Overview
- Exhibit 136: EnerSys - Business segments
- Exhibit 137: EnerSys - Key news
- Exhibit 138: EnerSys - Key offerings
- Exhibit 139: EnerSys - Segment focus
- 12.12 EverExceed Industrial Co. Ltd.
- Exhibit 140: EverExceed Industrial Co. Ltd. - Overview
- Exhibit 141: EverExceed Industrial Co. Ltd. - Product / Service
- Exhibit 142: EverExceed Industrial Co. Ltd. - Key offerings
- 12.13 Exide Industries Ltd.
- Exhibit 143: Exide Industries Ltd. - Overview
- Exhibit 144: Exide Industries Ltd. - Product / Service
- Exhibit 145: Exide Industries Ltd. - Key offerings
- 12.14 GS Yuasa Corp.
- Exhibit 146: GS Yuasa Corp. - Overview
- Exhibit 147: GS Yuasa Corp. - Business segments
- Exhibit 148: GS Yuasa Corp. - Key news
- Exhibit 149: GS Yuasa Corp. - Key offerings
- Exhibit 150: GS Yuasa Corp. - Segment focus
- 12.15 HBL Power Systems Ltd.
- Exhibit 151: HBL Power Systems Ltd. - Overview
- Exhibit 152: HBL Power Systems Ltd. - Business segments
- Exhibit 153: HBL Power Systems Ltd. - Key offerings
- Exhibit 154: HBL Power Systems Ltd. - Segment focus
- 12.16 Leoch International Technology Ltd.
- Exhibit 155: Leoch International Technology Ltd. - Overview
- Exhibit 156: Leoch International Technology Ltd. - Business segments
- Exhibit 157: Leoch International Technology Ltd. - Key offerings
- Exhibit 158: Leoch International Technology Ltd. - Segment focus
- 12.17 The Furukawa Battery Co. Ltd.
- Exhibit 159: The Furukawa Battery Co. Ltd. - Overview
- Exhibit 160: The Furukawa Battery Co. Ltd. - Business segments
- Exhibit 161: The Furukawa Battery Co. Ltd. - Key offerings
- Exhibit 162: The Furukawa Battery Co. Ltd. - Segment focus
13 Appendix
- 13.1 Scope of the report
- 13.2 Inclusions and exclusions checklist
- Exhibit 163: Inclusions checklist
- Exhibit 164: Exclusions checklist
- 13.3 Currency conversion rates for US$
- Exhibit 165: Currency conversion rates for US$
- 13.4 Research methodology
- Exhibit 166: Research methodology
- Exhibit 167: Validation techniques employed for market sizing
- Exhibit 168: Information sources
- 13.5 List of abbreviations
- Exhibit 169: List of abbreviations
Technavio is a leading global technology research and advisory company. Their research and analysis focus on emerging market trends and provide actionable insights to help businesses identify market opportunities and develop effective strategies to optimize their market positions. With over 500 specialized analysts, Technavio's report library consists of more than 17,000 reports and counting, covering 800 technologies, spanning across 50 countries. Their client base consists of enterprises of all sizes, including more than 100 Fortune 500 companies. This growing client base relies on Technavio's comprehensive coverage, extensive research, and actionable market insights to identify opportunities in existing and potential markets and assess their competitive positions within changing market scenarios.
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Uncategorized
February Employment Situation
By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…
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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert
The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.
Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.
Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.
The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.
The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.
Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.
As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.
Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.
The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.
unemployment pandemic unemploymentUncategorized
Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes
Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.
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Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.
The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.
From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250
Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.
1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.
2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.
Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.
3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too
Total employment data
4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels.
From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.
Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:
In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:
- Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
- High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
- Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
- Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.
recession unemployment covid-19 fed federal reserve mortgage rates recession recovery unemploymentUncategorized
Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month
Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month
Last month we though that the January…
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Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush.
What happened? Let's take a closer look.
On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.
Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.
Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K, a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!
Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.
In the past month the Biden department of goalseeking stuff higher before revising it lower, has revised the following data sharply lower:
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 30, 2023
- Jobs
- JOLTS
- New Home sales
- Housing Starts and Permits
- Industrial Production
- PCE and core PCE
To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).
And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...
... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...
... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.
While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.
But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).
This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.
There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).
Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!
But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!
The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!
Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...
... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!
This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...
... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.
Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.
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