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August Prices

August CPI At an annualized rate, monthly inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 7.8% in August, up from 2.0% in July. Our preferred…

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August CPI

At an annualized rate, monthly inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 7.8% in August, up from 2.0% in July. Our preferred measure of trend CPI inflation (the 3-month annualized) increased from 1.9% in July to 4.6% in August.

While we prefer to look at the overall CPI when looking to its trend, others prefer to look at core CPI inflation. Excluding food and energy, monthly inflation rose from 1.9% in July to 3.4% in August. However, the 3-month core CPI inflation rate actually fell, from 3.1% in July to 2.4% in August

What to make of all this? CPI inflation in August is up and well above the Fed’s 2% target for inflation. Comparing the overall CPI inflation with core CPI inflation shows that part of August’s increase in inflation is due to food and energy. The BLS specifically pointed to gasoline prices and the cost of shelter. Some commentators look at so-called `supercore’ CPI inflation, and that some of these supercore measures specifically exclude the cost of shelter. (What’s the end game for all these core measures? Will commentators be watching the price of bananas?)

August PPI

Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation for August similarly accelerated, from 4.9% in July to 9.3% in August (annualized monthly percent changes). The 3-month annualized PPI inflation rate also increased, from -0.1% (July) to 4.3% (August).

Looking instead at the PPI for personal consumption paints a more alarming picture: its monthly inflation rate rose from an annualized 4.3% in July to 40% in August! Its 3-month annualized counterpart also shows a marked increase, from -6.1% (July) to 15.4% (August).

It seems intuitive that producer prices should, eventually, be reflected in consumer prices. Looking across many years of data, the pattern that emerges is simply that inflation rates tend to move together. It seems difficult to make a case that higher PPI inflation is the harbinger of higher CPI inflation.

PCE for July

The PCE price index is released nearly a month after the CPI, and so August PCE inflation is not yet available. At an annualized rate, monthly PCE inflation rose slightly from 2.5% in June to 2.6% in July. On the other hand, the 3-month annualized PCE inflation rate fell from 2.5% (June) to 2.1% (July). Core PCE inflation shows a similar pattern.

Policy Outlook

Fed watchers know that its preferred measure of inflation is the PCE. The key question is: Will the large increases in CPI inflation in August also show up in the PCE inflation measures? It’s tempting to think that they must since the prices of individual items used in these indices are, presumably, essentially the same – the chief difference, then, being the weights associated with the prices of individual items. While PCE inflation generally tracks both CPI and core CPI inflation, these various measures of inflation exhibit considerable disparity.

Will the Fed take a pause, or continue raising its target for the Federal Funds Rate? If we knew the answer to this question, we’d probably be working on Wall Street. Answering this question probably means getting inside the heads of the voting members of the FOMC. Do they think that inflation is continuing to trend down? Or are the August CPI and PPI numbers the harbinger of an increase in inflation that needs to be nipped in the bud? Does the FOMC wish to avoid getting “behind the curve” as seems to have happened during the pandemic when they kept repeating that it was likely that the inflation was transitory due to supply chain issues?

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Ripple’s XRP price jumps 5% fuelled by Singapore licensing acquisition amidst crypto market downturn

Ripple’s XRP emerged as one of the rare gainers during a subdued 24 hours in the cryptocurrency market that saw Bitcoin (BTC) and other top digital assets…

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Ripple’s XRP emerged as one of the rare gainers during a subdued 24 hours in the cryptocurrency market that saw Bitcoin (BTC) and other top digital assets lose their value.

Data from CryptoSlate reveals that XRP surged by approximately 5%, reaching $0.53018 as of press time. This uptick follows Ripple’s significant victories during the reporting period as it secured licensing in Singapore and Judge Analisa Torres rejected the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) plea for an interlocutory appeal.

Ripple’s Singapore licensing

Earlier today, Ripple said its subsidiary, Ripple Markets APAC Pte Ltd, secured a “full” Major Payments Institution (MPI) license from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to provide digital payment token services in the country. The crypto payment country received an in-principle approval from the regulator in June.

The MPI license enables businesses to operate free from daily and monthly transaction limits. To qualify, the business must possess a Singaporean-registered company or branch, maintain a permanent business address for record-keeping, have a minimum capital of $250,000, and appoint at least one director with Singaporean citizenship or residency.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse described Singapore as a “progressive jurisdiction” that has ” developed into one of the leading fintech and digital asset hubs striking a balance between innovation, consumer protection, and responsible growth.”

Besides that, Judge Torres’s decision provides a closing chapter to the legal tussle between the company and the SEC for this year, with both parties scheduled for trial by April 23, 2024.

Selling pressure on the horizon

Despite this recent surge, XRP still confronts substantial selling pressure due to Ripple recently releasing one billion tokens from its escrow system.

Top 10 Assets by Market Cap. (Source: CryptoSlate)

While the crypto payment firm immediately relocked 800 million XRP, the company still holds 200 million tokens that could add more than $100 million in selling pressure to the market, potentially altering the current upward momentum of the asset.

The post Ripple’s XRP price jumps 5% fuelled by Singapore licensing acquisition amidst crypto market downturn appeared first on CryptoSlate.

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Blockchain finance to grow into $79.3B market by 2032

COVID-19 pandemic-induced disruptions in traditional finance, coupled with the promise to reduce operational costs set the stage for the mainstreaming…

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COVID-19 pandemic-induced disruptions in traditional finance, coupled with the promise to reduce operational costs set the stage for the mainstreaming of the digital ecosystem.

The global blockchain finance market — encompassing public and private blockchains, trading, payments, settlements and asset management — is well-positioned to grow into a $79.3B market by 2032.

A report by Allied Market Research revealed that the blockchain finance market players are heavily exploring collaborations and acquisitions as a top strategy. COVID-19 pandemic-induced disruptions in traditional finance, coupled with the promise to reduce operational costs set the stage for the mainstreaming of the digital ecosystem.

The public blockchain sub-segment accounts for dominant market share. Source: Allied Market Research

In 2023, the public blockchain sub-segment represents the lion’s share of the type of blockchains being used worldwide. Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) are some of the prominent crypto ecosystems that use public blockchains. Public blockchains come with numerous upsides, as explained in the report:

“Public blockchains leverage significant computational power, making them ideal for maintaining large distributed ledgers associated with financial transactions. These factors are anticipated to boost the blockchain finance market.”

When it comes to the applications of blockchain finance, cross-border payments and trading are two of the largest sub-segments, driven by the rising demand from individuals, enterprises, merchants, industries and international development groups.

The cross-border payments and settlement sub-segment accounts for dominant market share. Source: Allied Market Research

As shown above, the trend is expected to continue as users continue to seek cheaper alternatives to move their savings across the world. North America dominated the blockchain finance market in 2022 and is expected to maintain its lead for blockchain finance adoption.

Blockchain finance market report highlights. Source: Allied Market Research

Based on the quantitative analysis of trends and dynamics of the blockchain finance industry, Allied Market Research predicted a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) growth of 60.5%. Based on the estimates, the industry is poised to grow into a $79.3 billion market.

Related: Beyond finance and Bitcoin: How blockchain is disrupting secure messaging

A report recently published by digital payments network Ripple revealed that blockchain could potentially save financial institutions approximately $10 billion in cross-border payment costs by the year 2030.

“In the survey, over 50% of respondents believe that lower payment costs — both domestically and internationally — is crypto’s primary benefit,” the report notes. The statement complements Allied Market Research’s report, which bases its growth trajectory prediction on cheaper and safer alternatives.

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CBDC lays foundation for new global monetary system: French central bank

The first deputy governor at Banque de France calls central bank digital currency “the catalyst for improving cross-border payments.“

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The first deputy governor at Banque de France calls central bank digital currency “the catalyst for improving cross-border payments.“

Representatives of Banque de France, the French central bank, have embraced the global perspective on the central bank digital currency (CBDC) discussion, touting it as the foundation of a new international monetary system.

On Oct.3, Denis Beau, the first deputy governor at Banque de France, called the CBDC “the catalyst for improving cross-border payments by enabling the build-up of a new international monetary system.” The official emphasizes the necessity of considering cross-border issue around CBDCs from the outset and not as an afterthought.

Related: Head of Portugal central bank deems crypto unsustainable, calls for global regulation

Beau sees several paths for developing a CBDC. The first is the development of common standards and interoperability between wholesale CBDCs and legacy systems. The second — promoted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) — is the development of regional or global CBDC platforms. Wholesale CBDCs could be standardized to be exchanged directly on these platforms and perform payment versus payment and delivery versus payment transactions.

Beau cited the example of Project Mariana, which explored the possibilities of an automated market maker (AMM). The project, involving the Banque de France, the Monetary Authority of Singapore and the Swiss National Bank, successfully concluded in late September.

The official talked not only about the CBDCs but also about the tokenization of finance. He expressed his belief that the public sector must support the private sector more to enable the full potential of blockchain while limiting the risks. In his opinion, tokenized “central bank money availability” and tokenized assets are allies rather than competitors.

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