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Analysts note parallels with March 2020: Will this time be different?

Analysts across crypto and traditional stocks have taken notice of the similarities between what happened in March 2020 and market moves so far this month.

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Analysts across crypto and traditional stocks have taken notice of the similarities between what happened in March 2020 and market moves so far this month.

Analysts in both crypto and traditional markets have noted some startling similarities between the recent downturn and the one caused by a pandemic panic in March, 2020.

The real question is whether it’s the start of a larger downturn or if there will be a significant bounce-back as in 2020 that led to an extended bull run in both crypto and stocks markets.

Podcaster and author of The Pomp Letter, Anthony “Pomp” Pompliano is on the permabull side of the ledger, tweeting on May 18 that since March 1, 2020 when one Bitcoin cost about $8,545, “Bitcoin is up 340%.”

Among those hopeful of a turnaround is investment firm Real Vision’s CEO Raoul Pal who believes Bitcoin markets have been painting a pattern that shares traits with the March 2020 crash.

In his May 13 episode of Raoul Pal Adventures in Crypto, Pal explained that with the downward price action last week, Bitcoin (BTC) may have “shot straight down” to the bottom of the current wedge formation and is now in a range that will eventually lead to another rise in price. He said,

“That was exactly the kind of pattern we had in March 2020.”

On March 12, 2020, investors panic-sold many assets, including Bitcoin, as fear about how the market would be impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic and global lockdowns. On that day, Bitcoin fell 45% from $7,935 to $5,142 according to CoinGecko.

The current decline in traditional markets has led to a loss of $7.6 trillion in market cap from the tech heavy Nasdaq, in non-inflation adjusted terms, more than the dot-com bubble and the March 2020 sell-offs.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index plunged to 8 on May 17 which is the lowest since March 2020.

The 50 day moving average (MA) of financials, real estate, and technology investments is close to the overwhelmingly oversold levels seen just over two years ago. Respectively, in March 2020 those levels were 0, 0, and 1 compared to 2, 3, and 4 so far in May based on data from Fidelity Investments. In a May 18 tweet, Fidelity’s own Director of Global Macro Jurrien Timmer called March 2020 “one of the most oversold setups in the history of the market.”

Managing partner at The Future Fund Gary Black pointed out on May 17 that Tesla (TSLA) is trading at a 20% discount, the widest from analyst target price since March 2020. He added that “Over the next 12 months, $TSLA rose 660%.”

The S&P 500 Index also displays similarities as it recorded a 52-week low of 3,930 on May 12 only to bounce back to 4,088 by market close on May 17. Chief Market Strategist for financial research firm LPL Research observed in a May 18 tweet that the last time the index had done that was in March 2020.

Before traders get too excited, market conditions are very different now, with rising inflation and interest rates. Back then, governments reacted with unprecedented support packages to prop up prices. Reuters reported on May 14 that the strong bounce in the market in 2020 was fueled by what it called an “unprecedented Fed stimulus.”

Analyst and author of the Rekt Capital Newsletter, Rekt Capital tweeted on May 17 that BTC “is entering a period of outsized opportunity” based on analysis of the Log Channel which he says resembles what happened in March 2020. However he’s not clear if we’ve bottomed out yet.

Related: Fear & Greed Index hits lowest since March 2020 even as Bitcoin price hits $30.5K

As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is up 1.1% over the past 24 hours trading at $30,545.

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Economics

Relief rally or sustained bounce?

In this video insight Roger discusses current market conditions with equities having rallied off the lows recently thanks to a lower oil price and a retreat…

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In this video insight Roger discusses current market conditions with equities having rallied off the lows recently thanks to a lower oil price and a retreat in bond yields amid fears of a recession. Have we reached the bottom yet?

Transcript

Roger Montgomery:

You have probably been relieved seeing the market rally over the last few days. The S&P500 Index made a low on June 17 and has since bounced almost eight per cent, dragging markets globally up with it. I was personally feeling pleased with my recent additional investment in the Polen Capital Global Small and Mid Cap Fund. But investing is a long-game, we’re in it for years not minutes.

Nevertheless, one of the biggest objections to investing during a crisis – which history has shown to be the best time – is the possibility the market could fall further. And it could. 

Equities have rallied off the lows recently thanks to a lower oil price and a retreat in bond yields amid fears of a recession. Recession concerns are dominating the narrative and even the head of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell has admitted the risk. Meanwhile google searches for “recession” have spiked ten-fold and are as high as during the Global Financial Crisis and the onset of the COVID pandemic.

Perhaps counterintuitively, recessions can be good news for equities particularly if prices have already fallen dramatically. That’s because, rather than focusing on the negative pressure on company earnings, investors instead look to the fall in bond yields and the consequent positive effect on present values.

But should we be getting too excited? Have we hit the bottom already? Even though I have recently invested additional capital, I am not certain we have hit the bottom. I can see reasonable arguments to suggest there could be more losses for equities. To be clear of course this would be a positive for anyone who considers themselves a net buyer of shares. The lower the price goes, the higher the subsequent return.

The U.S. Federal Funds futures curve has recently reduced its bet on additional aggressive rate hikes and is even forecasting an easing of interest rates next year. Along with the decline in the oil price and other commodities such as wheat, corn and copper, the reversal of rising bond rates suggests investor sentiment had switched recently from inflation to recession.

Unfortunately, the optimism is due to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s history of backing off rate rises whenever the equity market has fallen between 15 and 20 per cent. It’s known as the “Fed Put.”

It is true that the U.S. Federal Reserve eases aggressively when bear markets in equities precede recessions. However, it is also true that when the Fed has chickened out the circumstances were very different to today.

Since the 1990s, and certainly after the GFC, the primary problem confronting central banks and governments has been pallid organic economic growth and low inflation, and even the intermittent threat of deflation. Understandably, rate cuts make sense.

But prior to the 1990s the Fed’s response differed. In the 1970s for example persistent inflation meant Fed policy was aimed squarely at fighting inflation, with less concern for the impact on economic growth. Back then the Fed raised rates despite already large falls in the stock market and a weakening economy.

I cannot be sure of whether today’s U.S. central bank will be as callous as it was decades back however the reality is inflation has broken out and wage growth is accelerating with unions protesting and striking, risking a dangerous wage-price spiral.

So have we reached the bottom yet? Well, uncertainty about the Fed’s stance is sure to mean more volatility. Until we get a clear read on interest rates, the lows could easily be retested.

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5 Top Biotech Stocks To Watch In July 2022

Amid choppy markets, could there be potential in these top biotech stocks?
The post 5 Top Biotech Stocks To Watch In July 2022 appeared first on Stock…

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Should Investors Be Watching These Top Biotech Stocks In The Stock Market Now?

Just as most people think that pandemic woes are behind us, we now have the emergence of the monkeypox. While this virus may not be as contagious as the coronavirus, there is still a real cause for concern. On Tuesday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced the activation of an emergency operations unit for monkeypox. This signals the initial stages of a public health concern. Epidemiologist Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding believes that the number of cases could reach 100,000 worldwide by August. In light of these circumstances, biotech stocks could be gaining more attention in the stock market. 

Furthermore, the coronavirus is not going away anytime soon. Recently, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) voted that there is a need to modify the current strain composition of available COVID-19 vaccines to target the Omicron variant. If this is approved, vaccine makers such as Pfizer/BioNTech, and Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) will need to provide modified boosters of their coronavirus vaccines. In fact, Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and BioNTech (NASDAQ: BNTX) just announced a new vaccine supply agreement with the U.S. government. Under the agreement, the U.S. government will receive 105 million doses with an option of up to 195 million additional doses. With all this in mind, here are five of the top biotech stocks to note in the stock market today. 

Biotech Stocks For Your July 2022 Watchlist

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals 

biotech stocks to buy (regn stock)

First up, we have the integrated biotech company, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals. Essentially, the company discovers, invents, manufactures, and commercializes medicines for serious diseases. For the most part, its medicines and products aim to help patients with eye diseases, allergic and inflammatory diseases, cancer, cardiovascular, and metabolic diseases. REGN stock has been trading sideways over the past year. 

Having said that, the company received a boost on Wednesday as the U.S. FDA has accepted for review the EYLEA Injection supplemental Biologics License Application for every 16-week 2 mg dosing regimen. This specifically caters to patients with diabetic retinopathy. Should this go according to plan, the 16-week dosing regimen could offer patients a potentially longer treatment interval. Also, it will allow doctors to have greater flexibility to individualize treatment. Given such a positive development, should investors be paying more attention to REGN stock?

[Read More] Stock Market Today: Dow Jones, S&P 500 Falter; Walgreens Stock Slides Despite Strong Quarter

Sanofi

best health care stocks to buy now (SNY stock)

Another top biotech name making waves this week is Sanofi. The France-based company engages in the research, development, and marketing of therapeutic solutions. Over the past week, there have been several key developments that could potentially excite investors. For starters, the company and GSK (NYSE: GSK) announced positive data from their vaccine trial last Friday. The vaccine candidate is the first to ever demonstrate efficacy in a placebo-controlled trial in an environment of high Omicron variant circulation. 

Furthermore, Sanofi’s Nexviadyme (avalglucosidase alfa) has recently gained marketing authorization from the European Commission. For the uninitiated, this is an enzyme replacement therapy for long-term treatment of both late-onset and infantile-onset Pompe disease. This is a significant development because Nexviadyme is the first and only newly approved medicine for Pompe disease in Europe since 2006. On that note, would you say that SNY stock is a top biotech stock to watch?

Novavax

best biotech stocks (NVAX stock)

Following that, let us look at the biotech company, Novavax. In detail, it promotes improved health globally through the discovery, development, and commercialization of vaccines to prevent serious infectious diseases. Its recombinant technology platform harnesses the power and speed of genetic engineering. As a result, the company produces immunogenic nanoparticles designed to address urgent global health needs. That said, NVAX stock has been struggling to find its footing since the start of the year. 

During the VRBPAC meeting, Novavax highlighted data showing that its protein-based coronavirus vaccine showed epitopes across both the original strain and emerging variants. Therefore, it will be able to contribute to the generation of broadly cross-reacting antibodies. The company also provided pre-clinical data that suggests boosting with Novavax’s Omicron or prototype vaccine will induce an immune response against Omicron variants. Overall, there are reasons to believe that Novavax will close the second half of the year on a better note. With that in mind, would you consider adding NVAX stock to the top of your watchlist?

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals 

ARWR stock

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals develops medicines that treat intractable diseases by silencing the genes that cause them. It uses a portfolio of ribonucleic acid (RNA) chemistries and modes of delivery. Most of its therapies trigger the RNA interference mechanism to induce rapid, deep, and durable knockdown of target genes. Those following the medical space would notice that gene therapies have been gaining popularity within the industry over the past few years. Hence, it would not be surprising if investors are taking note of Arrowhead. 

As a matter of fact, the company recently claimed that its experimental drug fazirsiran can reduce the accumulation of mutant protein known as Z-AAT by 83%. This result is based on an open-label phase 2 trial involving 16 volunteers with alpha1-antitrypsin deficiency disease. For now, there is still no approved treatment for such genetic liver disease. All in all, Arrowhead appears to be making strides in the right direction. Thus, should you be keeping a closer tab on ARWR stock?

[Read More] Best Long-Term Stocks To Buy Now? 5 Semiconductor Stocks To Know

Global Blood Therapeutics

gbt stock

To sum it all up, we have the biopharmaceutical company, Global Blood Therapeutics. As its name suggests, this is a company that specializes in blood-related treatments. The company is currently focused on Oxbryta, an FDA-approved medicine that inhibits sickle hemoglobin polymerization. In addition, it is also advancing its pipeline program in Sickle Cell Disease with inclacumab, and GBT021601. Impressively, GBT stock has been on bullish momentum lately, rising more than 28% within the past month.

Not to mention, the company announced on Thursday that it initiated the Phase 2 portion of its Phase 2/3 trial of GBT021601. The study aims to evaluate the safety, tolerability, efficacy, pharmacokinetics, and pharmacodynamics of the drug. So far, the preclinical results and data have been encouraging. Smith-Whitley, the company’s head of research and development, believes the drug has “the potential to improve on the clinical results achieved with Oxbryta® at a lower daily dose.” If so, this would be a huge boost for the company as it continues to work towards its long-term goals. All things considered, is GBT stock a buy right now?

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The post 5 Top Biotech Stocks To Watch In July 2022 appeared first on Stock Market News, Quotes, Charts and Financial Information | StockMarket.com.

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Bonds

Bitcoin nears worst monthly losses since 2011 with BTC price at $19K

Bitcoin price action will seal monthly losses over 40% for the first time in 11 years if it closes at $19,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) drifted…

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Bitcoin price action will seal monthly losses over 40% for the first time in 11 years if it closes at $19,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) drifted further downhill into the June 30 Wall Street open as United States equities opened with a whimper.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

U.S. dollar returns to multi-decade highs

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it abandoned $19,000 to hit its lowest in over ten days.

Bulls failed to preserve either $20,000 or $19,000 at the hands of limp U.S. stock market moves, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index down 1.8% and 2.6% respectively at the time of writing.

At the same time, the U.S. dollar once again staged a comeback to fix a trajectory toward twenty-year highs seen this quarter.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) was above 105.1 on the day, coming within just 0.2 points of its highest levels since 2002.

U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView

"The US dollar (DXY) looks set to test highs last seen in December 2002 as the short-term downtrend is broken convincingly amid risk markets' continued crumble," researche and trader Faisal Khan summarized on Twitter.

Data on inflation meanwhile once more suggested the worst could be behind the market.

As Cointelegraph reported, however, central banks began to acknowledge that the low rates seen before COVID-19 may never return.

Bulls' worst month in 11 years

With the majority of on-chain metrics now at historic lows, price data hinted how far BTC could theoretically go in a bear market increasingly unlike the rest.

Related: No flexing for Bitcoin Cash users as BCH loses 98% against Bitcoin

Should it close at current levels of $19,000, BTC/USD would seal monthly losses of over 40% for June 2022.

That would make it the worst June ever and the heaviest monthly losses since September 2011, data from TradingView and on-chain monitoring resource Coinglass confirms. 

Even March 2020 and the 2018 and 2014 bear markets were less severe on monthly timeframes. 40% drops were last seen when BTC/USD traded at $8.

BTC/USD monthly returns chart. Source: Coinglass

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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