There has been only one bright spot in what’s turning out to be an annus horribilis for U.S. stocks – the energy sector.
The S&P 500 has fallen into a bear market, down more than 20% this year. The benchmark index is on pace for one its worst opening six months since 1970. Historically, there have been only five times since 1932 that the S&P 500 lost 15% or more in the first six months of a year.
In contrast, energy stocks have climbed more than 30%, even after the sharp drawdown over the past two weeks amid a broad market sell-off and a fall in the price of crude oil.
However, I still think that the energy sector has much further to run as we enter – or have already entered – a structural bull market for commodities.
For certain, a structural deficit in the oil market has emerged since the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
That is just part of the story, though.
Other factors, not the least of which was a lack of investment in upstream exploration over the past few years, has left global capacity in a tough spot. As President Macron of France told President Biden recently, even Saudi Arabia has only about 150,000 barrels of spare capacity that can be brought online within six months.
Meanwhile, oil demand is set to top pre-pandemic levels next year, with 80% of the growth in demand coming from non-OECD nations. Just as the West seeks to use less oil, its demand is being replaced quickly by the emerging markets.
All of this is very good news for any oil company that can increase its oil output at low cost to take advantage of high prices.
One such company is Hess Corporation (HES), which is highly leveraged to the price of oil. Let’s take a look…
Hess and the Stabroek Block
This company is not one of Wall Street’s favorites because of its high debt level. At the end of the first quarter, its debt to capitalization ratio was above 55%. But with so much revenue coming in, that is much less of a concern.
Currently, Hess is one of the largest producers in the Bakken Shale. This includes a large portion in the
highly productive area near the Mountrail-McKenzie county line in North Dakota. Management believes this acreage still contains at least 2,000 incremental drilling opportunities and hopes to develop this asset with a four-rig program in the long run (giving it well over 10 years of potential drilling inventory). Four rigs would optimize the usage of its infrastructure and keep production flat at around 200 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.
However, the real excitement for investors in Hess is centered on the growing Stabroek Block, offshore Guyana. Morningstar called it “the firm’s core growth engine going forward and is a game-changer for the company, due to its large scale and exceptional economics.”
This area is one of the highest margin, lowest carbon intensity oil developments globally, according to a report by the energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie. Barrels from this field, the largest discovered in the last decade, are mainly light, which helps meet the rising demand for relatively low-carbon-intensity liquids.
The Stabroek Block, where Hess has a 30% interest and ExxonMobil (XOM) is the operator, is large and continues to grow. The company recently increased the gross discovered recoverable estimate to
approximately 11 billion barrels of oil equivalent, up from the previous estimate of about 10 billion.
Current management guidance indicates 6 development phases will come online by 2027, resulting in gross volumes of about 1.2 million barrels a day of oil output. But with over 20 confirmed discoveries already, this may be too conservative (management has hinted at possibly 10 phases of development).
Hess currently operates the Liza field, where its Phase 1 project is expected to increase to more than 140,000 barrels of oil per day within weeks. And the Liza Phase 2 development is ramping up quickly to approximately 220,000 barrels of oil per day by the third quarter.
In April, the company announced it is going ahead with its fourth development in the field, Yellowtail, which should produce 250,000 barrels per day starting in 2025. The third development on the Stabroek Block at the Payara Field, with capacity of approximately 220,000 barrels of oil per day, is ahead of schedule and expected to start producing in late 2023.
Goldman Sachs analysts sifted through hundreds of oil and gas projects globally and identified Hess as one the few “winners” who “own material new projects that are highly profitable and will materially lift their future cash flows and production”.
The analysis is spot on. The company’s four oil developments in Guyana have a breakeven oil price of between $25 per barrel and $35 per barrel. And, by 2026, the overall company breakeven oil price is forecast to decrease to an oil price of roughly $45 per barrel.
This will translate to cash flow growth being strong over the coming years. Cash flow is forecast to grow at 25% annually through 2026, more than double the top-line growth.
That makes Hess stock a buy on its recent weakness it is down to around $110 a share from its recent high at $131.44. Anywhere from $110 to $118 is a reasonable entry point.
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“Yes, The Market Is Categorically Unfun And Ugly” – What JPMorgan’s Traders Think Happens Next
"Yes, The Market Is Categorically Unfun And Ugly" – What JPMorgan’s Traders Think Happens Next
Today is the last day of Q3 2022, and so far…
Today is the last day of Q3 2022, and so far this quarter, the S&P is down 25% from its all time highs, and down 15% from its peak of the summer rally, it is also set for a -3.8% quarterly loss - the third negative quarter in a row - the longest such stretch since 2008.
"So where we go from here?" That's the question JPMorgan market intelligence trader Andrew Tyler asks this morning, and to answer it he quotes from a handful of JPM strategists and traders. We start with the JPM trading desk:
Ronald Alder (TMT)
Yes, the market is categorically unfun and ugly. Equities remain at the mercy of eco data and the bond market. Economic data remains solid (PCE, Jobs, etc.) albeit backwards looking and, in concert with the fed commentary, won’t allow for the market to be constructive just yet (even as high frequency data points to lower inflation). Yesterday’s Long-Only buyers in TMT (primarily the megacaps) are notably absent or more passive, while see more defensive buying in Telco, etc. AAPL breaking is making things a bit precarious for everyone and everything. The desk is 1.3:1 better for sale now with volumes down in the HSD% range. It’s early, but conversations continue to skew bearish with the challenge to find the bullish narrative. I still think the risk-reward is fairly balanced here at 3600-3700.
- The tape remains very choppy and macro driven. ETF volumes are currently in the high-30%s (and were >40% this am). Liquidity in S&P futures is ok while Treasuries (and from what I hear in the bond market) remains abysmal. The strength in the MOVE Index and the sustained VIX Index levels have led to risk management challenges (which typically leads to de-risking) and broad frustration. It’s hard to fight the Fed commentary (and CBs more broadly) + hot global macro data. It remains The Fed Funds ceiling – which was a tailwind for the past two days – has crept back up today to ~4.53%.
- We have been consolidating for a little while this am 3620-3650. Our supply is drying up a bit (we are now 1.2:1 better to buy on the desk) and there’s a lot of hope (again, per [@Jack Johnston] perhaps not the best strategy – but sometimes you must work with what you have) that we could rally post the European close
Brian Heavey (Consumer)
NKE: Overall the print is mixed; the top-line is very strong (NA nearly doubled our estimate at 10% FXN vs. St. 4.5%, EMEA in-line and sequential improvement in China). EPS beat JPM and missed Street by a penny (.93 vs. St. .94 and JPMe .87). Higher tax rate hurt EPS by 5 cents - so revenues and operational EPS beat vs Street. The GM was down ~220bps which offset the revenue beat and is tied to the inventory clearing actions NKE has been undertaking (recall Boss has been previewing this has seasonal inventory has being cleared). We will guide on the call which will be the main driver of the stock (as well as information on inventory clearance).
- The desk was very active yesterday w/ primarily LO demand in discretionary and supply in Staples (i.e. much more "risk on" in nature). Client activity is down substantially today as the daily volatility remains paralyzing.
- I think the magnitude of the KMX miss shows just how much downside remains in SPX earnings estimates. Yes, I think expectations were low, but KMX embodies all of the issues facing the market right now: Weakening consumer demand, higher SG&A (primarily Labor), and difficulty in forecasting given a rapidly changing macro environment. This follows an EPS cut from VFC yesterday, and while a lot of VFC's issues are company and brand specific, it was another data point that the $230 EPS estimate for the SPX that even the bulls are clinging to is probably too high.
- It's not all bad today... we are finally seeing the DXY stop making new highs. I think if we can move the USD into a downtrend it will provide some relief to EPS estimates (especially in the more FX sensitive staples names). Today's move lower is immaterial in the context of the last few weeks rip, but something to watch going forward
Stuart Humphrey (TMT)
MU | Bad Q, worse guide. Q4 revs in at $6.64B vs STe at $6.73B and JPMe at $6.56B (we lowered estimates into the print) with Q1 guide well below as revs for Q1 to be $4.25B at midpt vs STe of $5.71B came in well below expectations - GMs down below 30%, likely cutting utilization. Double ordering and supply chains are easing. Stock might be down more prob if not for positioning and the 50% capex cut vs last year.
Then we move on to the JPM strategists and economists:
Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou (strategist)
Nikolaos reminds us that cash allocation for non-bank investors has risen sharply this year due to simultaneous decline in both equities and bonds, and “a backdrop of high cash allocation may provide backstop for both equities and bonds likely limiting any further downside from here.” JPM still feels like a bear rally would be difficult to launch without a better CPI print to boost the market sentiment. As we are closer to Q3 earnings, a better-than-expected earnings and companies outlooks may also trigger a rally, but the margin shrinking and FX risks are still the biggest unknowns. More bullets from his note below:
Following this year’s unprecedented rise in bond yields, we find that non-bank investors globally have erased 14 years of previous bond overweights and lowered their allocation to bonds to only 17% currently, even below the pre-Lehman crisis average of 18%.
We see two main implications from this low bond allocation. First, going forward a sustained bull market in equities could require a bull market in bonds. Second, the pressure on multi asset investors to sell equities to offset the mechanical increase in their equity allocations stemming from bond price declines has diminished.
Outside any interplay between equity and bond allocations, a backdrop of high cash allocations provides in our opinion a backstop to both equities and bonds, likely limiting any further downside from here.
BoE calms concerns over collateral calls for now.
Revenue has declined for ethereum block makers post merge, yet the staking yield has increased
This year’s rise in bond yields is of historic proportions. The 250bp YTD rise in the Global Agg bond index yield that took place in a period of nine months, represents the steepest and largest rise in the history of the index, exceeding the bond yield rise of 1994. What is even more unprecedented is the decline in the return of the Global Agg bond index on a currency unhedged basis. Effectively more than a decade of previous returns has been unwound in a period of only nine months.
Similar to previous large bond selloffs, this year’s bond selloff has been taking place against a backdrop of very low liquidity. This is shown in Figure 3, which shows that, for most of this year, the market depth for USTs has been even lower than that seen in March 2020 at the peak of the pandemic crisis.
In other words, at the current juncture of very low market depth and elevated rate volatility one is feeding the other in an intense way: as rate volatility rises bond market makers step back from their market making role and raise bid offer spreads inducing low market depth and lower liquidity, which in turns creates even more rate volatility.
Michael Feroli (economist, discussing net trade)
So far the factory sector has held up well in the face of a surging dollar. But that’s unlikely to last, as lagged exchange rate effects and a European recession hit exporters. We expect net trade will subtract a little more than 1%-pt from GDP growth in ‘23.
Fans of Kung Fu movies will be familiar with the delayed touch of death: a lethal blow whose effects are only realized after the passage of time. The closest equivalent among the various monetary transmission channels has to be the exchange rate channel. Whereas some financial conditions (e.g., mortgage rates) manifest themselves in the economy in a matter of months, historically it can take several quarters for the effect of moves in the exchange rate to play out in export and import growth.
In this note we discuss what these lags—combined with the recent strength of the dollar— imply for the outlook for trade and manufacturing next year. Layered on top of the dollar appreciation is a looming recession in the Eurozone, one of the US’s largest trading partners. We also discuss why the lags from the dollar to trade may be even longer than usual now, and that when the dollar effects do hit they may hit with even more force than usual. All in, we think trade could subtract more than a percentage point from GDP growth next year, with more drag to come in ’24.
Trade models are pretty simple, as far as economic models go. Demand for exports is determined by foreign income (GDP) and by the relative price of domestically-produced goods, i.e., the real exchange rate. Demand for imports is similarly a function of domestic income and the real exchange rate. Looking at the first of these, foreign income, Europe - both the Eurozone and other Europe—accounts for about a quarter of exports and appears to be heading into recession.
More generally, the J.P. Morgan forecast for our trading partners next year looks for one of the slowest growth years outside of global recessions (Figure 2).
The other main driver of US trade performance is the real, trade-weighted dollar. The real exchange weight is the nominal exchange weight adjusted for the price level differential between countries. Since various price indices can be used, there are various real exchange rates. The J.P. Morgan real dollar indices are up between 13% and 18% since the beginning of the year. Taking the average, and using our estimated trade elasticities, over time this should reduce the level of GDP—through both lower exports and more domestic demand shifted to imports—by over 1.5%-pts.
Nike Stock News – Excessive Seasonal Inventory Hurts Shares
The latest Nike stock news has shares down more than 13%. This comes after a 44% increase of excess inventories from the most recent quarter.
The latest Nike stock news has shares down more than 13%. This comes after a large 44% increase of excess inventories from the most recent quarter. Increased delivery times and consumer demand has greatly affected the company’s supply chain recently.
Nike CFO Matt Friend elaborated on the challenges the company has faced:
I could not be more proud of how our team continues to adapt to changing circumstances with a relentless focus on getting the right product to the right place at the right time. This quarter, it became clear to us that conditions in North America are shifting once again.
Earlier ordering by retailers, driven by strong consumer demand and less predictable delivery timelines, had led to elevated inventory levels broadly across consumer goods. Then transit times began to rapidly improve with signals that further improvement may be coming. At the same time, consumers are facing greater economic uncertainty, and promotional activity across the marketplace is accelerating, especially in apparel. As a result, we faced a new degree of complexity.
Nike will look to offer discounts to combat the excess inventory. Friend continued his positive outlook, by viewing Nike’s growth with a longer-term lens:
Since fiscal ’19, our digital business has nearly tripled to exceed $10 billion in revenue, representing 24% of total NIKE brand revenue in fiscal ’22. Over this period, NIKE Direct gross margins expanded through the combination of rapid digital growth and improvements in channel margin profitability, ultimately fueling NIKE’s overall gross margin expansion despite being partially offset by transitory headwinds experienced through the pandemic.
Nike Stock News – Stock Updates
It’s not a surprise that Friend referenced 2019 in order to display positive growth. You almost have to go back that far to see Nike Inc (NYSE: NKE) below current levels. This year alone, Nike stock has dropped more than 42%. At close yesterday, Nike was the eighth lowest priced stock on the Dow Jones Industrial Average at $95.33.
Despite the recent negative Nike stock news, the sports apparel and footwear brand is gearing up for the challenges ahead:
Now I’ll turn to our updated financial outlook for fiscal ’23. To date, we continue to see strong consumer demand for our portfolio of brands across our geographies. We are closely monitoring consumer confidence and behavior, and ultimately, the implications of high inflation on consumer demand. We’ve managed through cycles like this before, and we know these are times to stay on the offense, leveraging our financial strength to prioritize a quicker return to a healthy bull market.
Nike Stock News – Innovation
The company continues to focus on its bread and butter… shoes. With new innovations coming out of their line including the Peg 39, Pegasus, Invincible, Infinity, and what the company calls “the Must-Win 6.”
Also, the LeBron 20 recently launched, continuing the basketball superstar sneaker dynasty. The Lebron 20s are already hard to get, if not sold out. The Air Max Scorpion will also be a shoe to watch over the next six to twelve months. Between, NIKE and Jordan, the company continues its dominance in the basketball shoe space.
In addition to shoes, Nike’s Alate women’s fitness line (bras and tights) has generated positive early responses from consumers.
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Bounce In Futures Fizzles As Dollar Surge Returns
Bounce In Futures Fizzles As Dollar Surge Returns
If yesterday markets made little sense, when the dollar and yields slumped yet stocks and…
If yesterday markets made little sense, when the dollar and yields slumped yet stocks and other risk assets tumbled alongside them in a puzzling reversal of traditional risk relationships (a move which was likely precipitated by the plunge in AAPL and KMX), today things are a bit more logical with the dollar initially extending its slide helping futures rise to session highs just below 3,700, before the dollar surged just after 5am as sterling tumbled after Bloomberg reported that Prime Minister Liz Truss’s government signaled it was sticking with its plan for tax cuts after a meeting with the UK’s fiscal watchdog, dashing market expectations that a policy U-turn might be imminent which has pushed cable briefly above 1.12 overnight, wiping out a week's worth of losses. As a result, after rising as much as 0.8%, S&P futures were flat, up just 0.1%, the same as Nasdaq futures. Government bonds rallied across Europe and the US, as the dollar strengthened after reversing its earlier loss.
In premarket trading, Nike shares fall 10% after the sportswear giant cut its margin outlook for the year while reporting surging inventory, fueling worries over consumers’ ability to spend as inflation takes a toll. Micron shares rose 3% in premarket trading, after analysts said the ongoing inventory correction was only a short-term hurdle and that the bottom is near, a potential relief for semiconductor stocks that have taken a beating this year. Amylyx Pharmaceuticals’s (AMLX US) shares soared as much as 13% in US premarket trading after winning FDA approval for its Relyvrio drug, for the treatment of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) in adults. Analysts said they expected the drug to see a strong launch given demand from patients. Xos jumped 6.3% in extended trading after delivering 13 battery-electric vehicles to FedEx.
Thursday's bruising session took the S&P 500 down 2% to the lowest in almost two years and the Nasdaq 100 tumbling almost 4%. The S&P 500 Index has dropped on seven of the past 8 days, and is headed for its third straight quarter of losses for the first time since 2008-2009 and the Nasdaq 100 Stock Index for the first time in 20 years. Fears of global recession are growing by the day as the threat of higher rates saps growth and as the Fed confirms with every speech that not even a recession will stop it. The case of the UK shows how faultlines between government and central bank policy on tackling inflation can erupt into a crisis. Hopes evaporated that the British government would succumb to pressure to back down from tax cuts that brought the pound to the edge of dollar parity.
“Today, everything is just oversold so you are seeing a rebound,” said Esty Dwek, chief investment officer at Flowbank SA. “We are closer to bottoms and sentiment is so negative the downside is becoming more limited.”
Elsewhere, Global equity funds garnered inflows of $7.6 billion in the week to Sept. 28, according to data compiled by EPFR Global. Bonds had $13.7 billion of outflows in the week, while $8.9 billion flowed into US stocks, the data showed.
In Europe, the Stoxx 50 rose 0.9%. Real estate, energy and retailers are the strongest-performing sectors. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:
- Krones shares rose as much as 2.7% to their highest intra-day level since Feb. 2022, after HSBC increased the German machinery and equipment company’s price target to EU102
- Clariant shares rally by the most intraday since mid-May after Credit Suisse raises to outperform, partly as it expects Clariant’s new management team to boost performance
- ABN Amro jumped as much as 6.3% after Goldman Sachs raised the stock to buy from neutral, citing its gearing toward higher interest rates, increasing estimates on net interest income
- Zealand Pharma rise as much as 35%, the most on record, after the company announced positive data from its phase 3 trial of glepaglutide to treat patients with short bowel syndrome
- Sinch shares rise as much as 24% after SoftBank sold its entire stake in Sinch AB following a share price collapse of more than 90% in the Swedish cloud-based platform provider
- Adidas and Puma drop as their US peer Nike slumped in late trading Thursday after it said inventory buildup forced it to push through margin-busting discounts
- Hurricane Energy shares drop as much as 5.6% after 1H earnings; Canaccord Genuity notes the results did not surprise, and flags lack of regulatory reassurance on gas-management approvals
- Fingerprint Cards shares drop as much as 17% after saying it is raising fresh capital in order to strengthen the balance sheet and to address a forecasted covenant breach
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell again, putting the regional benchmark on course for its worst monthly performance since 2008, as a selloff spurred by concerns over higher interest rates and a global recession deepened. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.5% after earlier falling as much as 1% on Friday. Still down over 12% this month, the gauge has trailed global peers and is set to cap a seventh straight week of declines. That matches its losing streak from September 2015, which was the longest since 2011. Equities in Japan, which has the highest weight in the Asia index, were among the biggest losers on Friday, with the Topix falling 1.8%. Consumer discretionary and industrials were the worst sectors, while Chinese tech shares listed in Hong Kong also fell. READ: China Shares Plunge to Lowest Valuation on Record in Hong Kong Global funds have pulled almost $10 billion from Asian emerging-market stocks excluding China this month, as the dollar and Treasury yields climbed after Federal Reserve officials ramped up their rate-hike rhetoric. Taiwan’s tech-heavy market has suffered the bulk of the outflow from Asia. Its regulators tightened short selling rules as shares extended their slide.
“I think emerging markets as a whole are still going to have a pretty difficult six months until the Fed rate peaks,” Louis Lau, a fund manager at Brandes Investment Partners, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. How much damage is a strong dollar causing? That’s the theme of this week’s MLIV Pulse survey. It’s brief and we don’t collect your name or any contact information. Please click here to share your views. The turmoil in the UK has been another source of market volatility for Asia investors, who continue to grapple with the fallout from strict lockdowns in China, the region’s biggest economy. “There’s been some correlation (between risk assets and sterling) recently,” said Takeo Kamai, head of execution services at CLSA. Overall, “the theme hasn’t changed. The scenario that the Fed will cut rates next year is breaking down. I think we could see further downside in stock prices towards November,” he said. Stocks in India gained after the central bank raised the benchmark rate by an expected 50 basis points. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is down 4% this week and on course for its lowest close since April 2020
Japanese equities extended declines on Friday as a global market rout deepened, capping its worst month since the onset of the pandemic in 2020. The Topix Index fell 1.8% to 1,835.94 as of market close Tokyo time, taking declines in September to 6.5%. The Nikkei declined 1.8% to 25,937.21. Toyota Motor Corp. contributed the most to the Topix Index decline, decreasing 4.2%. Out of 2,169 stocks in the index, 299 rose and 1,823 fell, while 47 were unchanged. Federal Reserve officials reiterated Thursday that they will keep raising interest rates to rein in high inflation. “There are concerns that the economy will slow from further rate hikes while inflation doesn’t stop,” said Kenji Ueno, a portfolio manager at Sompo Asset Management.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 1.2% to close at 6,474.20, dragged by banks and industrials, after another plunge on Wall Street as the prospect of higher interest rates and turmoil in Europe stoked fears of global recession. The benchmark notched its third-straight week of losses. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 1.2% to 11,065.71
Stocks in India outperformed Asian peers after the Reserve Bank of India raised borrowing costs and exuded confidence to tackle inflation without any major impact to its growth projections. The S&P BSE Sensex added 1.8% to 57,426.92, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index rose by 1.6% as the indexes posted their biggest single-day jump since Aug. 30. Despite the rally, the key gauges fell more than 1% each for the week and over 3% for the month, their biggest decline since June. India’s central bank raised its repurchase rate by 50 basis points to 5.90%, matching the expectations of most economists. The RBI trimmed the economic growth outlook for the financial year ending March to 7% while retaining it 6.7% forecast for inflation. The increase in the benchmark interest rate “mainly supports stocks of financial companies, which have been seeing strong credit growth,” said Prashanth Tapse, an analyst at Mehta Securities.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rebounded after sliding initially, as cable tumbled when it emerged that Liz Truss is not backtracking on its massive fiscal easing. Iniitlally, the pound advanced a fourth day, to briefly trade above $1.12, fully reversing the moves since last Friday, however it then tumbled, wiping out all gains after Prime Minister Liz Truss’s government signaled it’s sticking with its plan for tax cuts after a meeting with the UK’s fiscal watchdog, dashing market expectations that a policy U-turn might be imminent. Notable data: U.K. 2Q final GDP rises 0.2% q/q versus preliminary -0.1%. The Aussie and kiwi crept higher, but are still set for their biggest monthly declines since April as rising Fed interest rates and fears of a global economic slowdown sap demand for risk assets
In rates, Treasuries advanced, 10-year yield dropping 8bps while bunds 10-year yield drops 6bps to 2.11%. Treasury 10-year yields around 3.685%, richer by 10bp on the day -- largest moves seen in UK front-end where 2-year yields are richer by 25bp on the day as BOE tightening premium fades out of interest-rate swaps. Short-end UK bonds surged amid political pressure on the government to water down some of its budget proposals, while the pound regained its budget-shock losses. US session focus is on PCE data and host of Federal Reserve speakers while month end may add some support into long end of the curve. Long end of the Treasuries curve may find additional month-end related buying support over the session; Bloomberg index projects 0.07yr Treasury extension for October. Gilts rallied, with short-end bonds leading gains as traders trimmed BOE tightening bets amid political pressure on the government to water down some of its budget proposals. Meanwhile in Japan, JGBs gained after the BOJ boosted purchases for maturities covering the benchmark 10-year zone. The Bank of Japan will buy more bonds with maturities of at least five years in the October-December period, according to a statement from the central bank
In commodities, WTI trades within Thursday’s range, adding 1.3% to near $82.26. Spot gold rises roughly $10 to trade near $1,671/oz.
Bitcoin is essentially unchanged and in very tight ranges of circa. USD 400 and as such well within the week's existing parameters
Looking to the day ahead now, and data releases include the flash Euro Area CPI release for September, as well as the Euro Area unemployment rate for August and German unemployment for September. In the US, we’ll also get August data on personal income and personal spending, the MNI Chicago PMI for September, and the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for September. Finally, central bank speakers include Fed Vice Chair Brainard, the Fed’s Barkin, Bowman and Williams, as well as the ECB’s Schnabel, Elderson and Visco.
- S&P 500 futures up 0.9% to 3,686.00
- STOXX Europe 600 up 1.3% to 387.83
- MXAP down 0.5% to 139.25
- MXAPJ little changed at 453.72
- Nikkei down 1.8% to 25,937.21
- Topix down 1.8% to 1,835.94
- Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 17,222.83
- Shanghai Composite down 0.6% to 3,024.39
- Sensex up 2.0% to 57,539.66
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.2% to 6,474.20
- Kospi down 0.7% to 2,155.49
- Brent Futures up 1.2% to $89.55/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.7% to $1,671.56
- U.S. Dollar Index down 0.52% to 111.67
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.10%
- Euro up 0.3% to $0.9840
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
- Prime Minister Liz Truss is under pressure to cut spending on the same scale as George Osborne’s infamous austerity drive of 2010 in order to stabilize the UK public finances and win back the confidence of investors
- Prime Minister Liz Truss and Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng are holding talks Friday with the UK government’s fiscal watchdog, amid intense criticism over their unfunded tax cuts that roiled markets
- A dash for cash among sterling investors after market turmoil sparked by pension fund margin calls is coming at a bad time, according to an M&G Investments executive
- The ECB shouldn’t let concerns about its profitability obstruct decision-making over monetary policy, according to Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus
- The SNB trimmed its foreign-exchange portfolio in the second quarter as the franc gyrated against the euro before rising above parity for the first time since 2015. The central bank sold 5 million francs ($5.1 million) worth of foreign currencies in the three months through June
- Norway’s central bank will increase its purchases of foreign currency to 4.3 billion kroner ($400 million) a day in October from 3.5 billion in September as it deposits energy revenues into the $1.1 trillion sovereign wealth fund.
- Japan’s factory output expanded by 2.7% in August from July, according to the economy ministry Friday, beating analysts’ 0.2% forecast. The output of semiconductor and flat-panel making equipment hit its highest level in data going back to 2003, as the effect of lockdowns in China abated
- Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida instructed the government Friday to come up with an economic stimulus package by the end of October to help mitigate the impact of inflation, as economists warned against over-sized spending
- China’s factory activity continued to struggle in September, while services slowed, as the country’s economic recovery was challenged by lockdowns in major cities and an ongoing property market downturn. The official manufacturing purchasing managers index rose to 50.1 from 49.4 in August
- An organization formed by China’s biggest foreign- exchange traders asked banks to trade the currency at levels closer to the central bank’s fixing at the market open, according to people familiar with the matter
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pac stocks were mostly lower after the negative performance across global peers amid inflationary headwinds and with risk appetite subdued heading quarter-end, while the region also digested mixed Chinese PMI data. ASX 200 declined amid weakness across most sectors and with tech the notable underperformer after the recent upside in yields and with Meta the latest major industry player to announce a hiring freeze. Nikkei 225 was pressured and fell below the 26,000 level with better-than-expected Industrial Production and Retail Sales data releases overshadowed by the broad risk aversion. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were indecisive after the PBoC conducted its largest weekly cash injection in more than 32 months ahead of the week-long closure in the mainland, while participants also digested mixed PMI data in which Official Manufacturing PMI topped forecasts with a surprise return to expansion, but Non-Manufacturing and Composite PMIs slowed and Caixin Manufacturing PMI printed at a wider contraction. NIFTY eventually notched mild gains in the aftermath of the RBI rate decision in which it hiked the Repurchase Rate by 50bps to 5.90% as expected via 5-1 split and with the central bank refraining from any major hawkish surprises.
Top Asian News
- Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno said they want to compile an extra budget swiftly after the economic package in late October, while they will consider further support for hard-hit consumers and businesses in view of higher energy and food prices, as well as consider steps to promote wage hikes, according to Reuters.
- Chinese Finance Ministry is to offer a tax refund for people who sell their homes and repurchases new ones by the end of 2023; additionally, China has told banks to provide USD 85bln in property funding by the end of the year, according to Bloomberg.
- Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 50.1 vs. Exp. 49.6 (Prev. 49.4); Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 50.6 vs Exp. 52.4 (Prev. 52.6)
- Chinese Composite PMI (Sep) 50.9 (Prev. 51.7)
- Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI Final (Sep) 48.1 vs. Exp. 49.5 (Prev. 49.5)
- Japanese Industrial Production MM SA (Aug P) 2.7% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.8%); Retail Sales YY (Aug) 4.1% vs. Exp. 2.8% (Prev. 2.4%)
European equities are attempting to claw back some of yesterday’s downside on quarter and month end. Sectors are firmer across the board with Real Estate outperforming peers in what has been a tough week for the UK property market. Stateside, futures are also attempting to recover from yesterday’s losses which saw a tough session for the tech sector after Apple shed the best part of 5%.
Top European News
- UK OBR Chair Hughes says a statement will be released today after the meeting with UK PM Truss and Chancellor Kwarteng. On this, the UK Treasury has not sought to accelerate watchdog's economic forecast, according to Bloomberg. Reminder, UK PM Truss to conduct emergency talks with the OBR on Friday after failing to calm markets, according to the Guardian.
- UK cross-party MPs in the Treasury Select Committee called for Chancellor Kwarteng to release a full economic forecast from the OBR by end of October, according to Sky News.
- UK PM Truss has confirmed she will attend next week's European Political Community summit, via BBC.
- Reports that technical level discussions between the UK and EU could resume as soon as next week, via BBC's Parker; writing, that there has been a 'warmer' tone in recent weeks, some believe pressure from the US on the UK has had influence.
- German VDMA, survey of members: majority expect nominal sales growth in 2022 and 2023.
- GBP's revival has continued ahead of a meeting between PM Truss and the OBR, with a statement expected, a move that has taken Cable above 1.12 but shy of mini-Budget levels.
- USD is firmer overall but continues to retreat from YTD peaks, though the DXY is seemingly drawn to the 112.00 area.
- Yuan derived further, fleeting, support from reports the FX body has asked banks to trade closer to the onshore fixing.
- Elsewhere, FX peers are under modest pressure but more contained vs USD; EUR unfased by a record EZ flash CPI print of 10.0%.
- Benchmarks bid but modestly off best levels with Bunds leading the charge, but well within recent ranges, amid potential month/quarter-end influence.
- Gilts lifted, but the 10yr yield remains above 4.0% ahead of the OBR statement.
- Stateside, USTs are equally buoyed ahead of a packed PM agenda include PCE Price Index and Fed speak.
- The broader commodity market is benefitting from a pullback in the USD coupled with a broader risk appetite.
- Metals are buoyed by the recent pullback in the Dollar with spot gold edging above its 10 DMA (USD 1,656.72/oz) and towards the USD 1,680/oz mark which coincides with the yellow metal’s 21DMA (USD 1,680.56/oz) and 200WMA (USD 1,680.20/oz).
- Base metals are also firmer across the board with 3M LME copper back above the USD 7,500/t mark, whilst nickel and aluminium outperform on the exchange.
- China loosened FX restrictions in response to the Fed rate hike and the yuan's fall over the past week, according to people familiar with the matter cited by FT.
- China's FX body is reportedly asking banks to trade the Yuan closer to the PBoC fixing, according to Bloomberg.
- PBoC injected CNY 128bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.00% and injected CNY 58bln via 14-day reverse repos with the rate kept at 2.15% for a CNY 184bln net daily injection and a net CNY 868bln weekly injection.
- RBI hiked Repurchase Rate by 50bps to 5.90%, as expected, via 5-1 vote and the Standing Deposit Facility was adjusted to 5.65%. RBI Governor Das said MPC is to remain focused on the withdrawal of accommodation and that the persistence of high inflation necessitates further calibrated withdrawal of monetary accommodation. However, Das noted that the Indian economy continues to be resilient with economic activity stable and overall monetary and liquidity conditions still remain accommodative, while Real GDP growth forecast for 2022/23 was revised lower to 7.0% from 7.2% and 2022/23 CPI was seen at 6.7%.
- RBI is reportedly encouraging state-run refiners to reduce USD buying in the spot market; asking to lean on USD 9bln credit line instead, according to Reuters sources.
- BoE was reportedly warned about a looming catastrophe in the pensions sector within the next 5 years before it was forced to intervene to prevent a market collapse, according to The Telegraph.
- Fed's Daly (2024 voter) said a downshift in economic activity and labour is needed to bring down inflation and additional rate increases are necessary and appropriate. Daly also stated that a myriad of risks narrows the path to a smooth landing but does not close it, while she added they have gotten rates to neutral and expect to raise rates further in coming meetings and early next year.
- Norges Bank will purchase FX equivalent to NOK 4.3bln/day in October (3.5bln in September); reflecting an increase in projected NOK revenues from petroleum activity.
- Russian President Putin signed decrees recognising occupied Ukrainian regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia as independent territories which is an intermediate step before the regions are formally incorporated into Russia, according to Reuters.
- ** Russia's Kremlin says strikes against the new territories incorporated into Russia will be considered an act of aggression against Russia**; says Ukraine has shown no willingness to negotiate, via Reuters.
- Russia's Spy Chief says they have material which show a Western role in Nord Stream incidents, via Ifx.
- Armenia's Foreign Ministry says their Ministers and Azerbaijani counterparts will meet in Geneva on October 2nd, via AJA Breaking.
US Event Calendar
- 08:30: Aug. Personal Spending, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1%
- Aug. Real Personal Spending, est. 0.1%, prior 0.2%
- Aug. Personal Income, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
- Aug. PCE Deflator MoM, est. 0.1%, prior -0.1%
- Aug. PCE Core Deflator MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.1%
- Aug. PCE Core Deflator YoY, est. 4.7%, prior 4.6%
- Aug. PCE Deflator YoY, est. 6.0%, prior 6.3%
- 09:45: Sept. MNI Chicago PMI, est. 51.8, prior 52.2
- 10:00: Sept. U. of Mich. Current Conditions, est. 58.9, prior 58.9
- U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 59.5, prior 59.5
- U. of Mich. Expectations, est. 59.9, prior 59.9
- U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, est. 4.6%, prior 4.6%; 5-10 Yr Inflation, est. 2.8%, prior 2.8%
Central Bank Speakers
- 08:30: Fed’s Barkin Speaks at Chamber of Commerce Event
- 09:00: Fed’s Brainard Speaks at Fed Conference on Financial Stability
- 11:00: Fed’s Bowman Discusses Large Bank Supervision
- 12:30: Fed’s Barkin Discusses the Drivers of Inflation
- 16:15: Williams Speaks at Fed Conference on Financial Stability
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
As we arrive at the end of a tumultuous month in financial markets, there’s been little sign of respite for investors over the last 24 hours, with the S&P 500 (-2.11%) reversing the previous day’s gains to close at a 21-month low. There were a number of factors behind the latest selloff, but fears of further rate hikes were prominent after the US weekly initial jobless claims showed that the labour market was still in decent shape, whilst the PCE inflation readings for Q2 were revised higher as well. That came alongside fresh signals of inflationary pressures in Europe, where German inflation in September moved into double-digits for the first time in over 70 years. Thanks to some hawkish rhetoric from central bank officials on top of that, the result was that the synchronised selloff for equities and bonds continued. In fact, barring a massive turnaround today, both the S&P 500 and the STOXX 600 are on course for their third consecutive quarterly decline, which is the first time that’s happened to either index since the financial crisis.
We’ll come to some of that below, but here in the UK there were signs that the market turmoil was beginning to stabilise slightly relative to earlier in the week. For instance, sterling (+2.09%) strengthened against the US Dollar for a third consecutive session, moving back above $1.10 for the first time since last Friday when the mini-budget was announced, and at a couple of points overnight was very briefly trading above $1.12. Indeed, it was the strongest-performing G10 currency on the day, so this wasn’t simply a case of dollar weakness. In the meantime, investors moved again to lower the chances of an emergency inter-meeting hike from the Bank of England, instead looking ahead to the next scheduled MPC meeting on November 3. That followed a speech from BoE Chief Economist Pill, in which he said “it is hard to avoid the conclusion that the fiscal easing announced last week will prompt a significant and necessary monetary policy response in November.”
However, gilts continued to struggle yesterday following the massive Wednesday rally after the BoE’s intervention. Yields on 10yr gilts were up by +13.0bps by the close, a larger increase than for German bunds (+6.4bps) or French OATs (+8.0bps). Furthermore, the spread on the UK’s 5yr credit default swaps closed at its highest level since 2013, so there are still plenty of signs of investor jitters. That came as the government showed no signs of U-turning on their programme of tax cuts, with Prime Minister Truss saying “I’m very clear the government has done the right thing”. It’s also worth noting that one factor seen as supporting sterling overnight was growing speculation that Truss might come under political pressure to reverse course on the fiscal announcements, particularly after a YouGov poll gave the opposition Labour Party a 33-point lead, which is its largest in any poll since the late-1990s. We also heard from the Conservative chair of the Treasury Select Committee, who tweeted that Chancellor Kwarteng should bring forward the November 23 statement on his medium-term fiscal plan and publish the independent OBR forecast as soon as possible.
Away from the UK, the broader selloff in financial markets resumed yesterday as investors priced in a more hawkish response from central banks over the months ahead. In the US, that followed a fresh round of data that was collectively seen as offering the Fed more space to keep hiking rates. First, the weekly initial jobless claims fell to a 5-month low of 193k over the week ending September 24. That was beneath the 215k reading expected, and the previous week was also revised down by -4k. Nor was this just a blip either, as the 4-week moving average is now at its lowest level since late May as well. In the meantime, we had an upward revision to core PCE in Q2, taking the rate up by three-tenths to an annualised +4.7%.
Those data releases came alongside some pretty hawkish Fed rhetoric, with Cleveland Fed President Mester saying that a recession wouldn’t stop the Fed from raising rates. And in turn, that led markets to price in a more aggressive Fed reaction, with the terminal rate expected in March 2023 up by +3.0bps on the day. Incidentally, we saw yet further signs that the Fed’s tightening was having an effect on the real economy, with Freddie Mac’s mortgage market survey showing that the average 30-year fixed rate had risen to 6.70%, which is their highest level since 2007. The more hawkish developments were reflected in US Treasury yields too, particularly at the front end, with yields on 2yr Treasuries up +5.8bps to 4.19%, and those on 10yr Treasuries up +5.4bps to 3.79%. Overnight in Asia, yields on the 10yr USTs are fairly stable as we go press, seeing a small +0.3bps rise, whilst those on 2yr Treasuries are up +1.8bps to 4.21%.
Europe got a fresh reminder about inflation as well yesterday, after the German CPI release for September came in well above expectations. Using the EU-harmonised measure, inflation rose to +10.9% (vs. +10.2% expected), which marks the first time since 1951 that German inflation has been running in double-digits. Earlier in the day, the German government separately announced that they’d be borrowing another €200bn to cap gas prices, with the previously planned consumer levy not going ahead. Looking forward, it’ll be worth looking out for the flash CPI release for the entire Euro Area today at 10am London time, where the consensus is expecting we’ll see the highest inflation since the formation of the single currency. That would keep the pressure on the ECB, and markets are continuing to price in another 75bps hike as the most likely outcome at the October meeting.
With investors digesting the prospect of continued hawkishness from central banks, equities lost further ground over yesterday’s session. The S&P 500 fell -2.11%, meaning the index is now down by nearly a quarter (-24.10%) since its closing peak in early January. The declines were incredibly broad-based across sectors, but interest-sensitive tech stocks struggled in particular, with the NASDAQ (-2.84%) and the FANG+ index (-3.38%) seeing even larger losses. Those heightened levels of volatility were also reflected in the VIX index (+1.7pts), which closed at 31.8pts. For European equities it was much the same story, with the STOXX 600 (-1.67%) closing at a 22-month low. Adding to the tech woes, Meta (-3.67%) joined the growing list of firms announcing a hiring freeze, with the tech giant also issuing a warning of potential restructuring, so it’ll be important to see if this is echoed more broadly and what this means for the labour market. In overnight trading, equity futures are pointing to further losses today, with those on the S&P 500 (-0.25%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.27%) both moving lower.
As we arrive at the final day of the month, Asian equities are similarly retreating this morning, putting a number of indices on course for their worst monthly performance in years. For instance, the Nikkei is currently on track for its worst month since March 2020, and the Hang Seng is on track for its worst month since September 2011. In terms of today, the Nikkei (-1.67%) is leading losses in the region with the Shanghai Composite (-0.21%), the CSI (-0.14%), the Kospi (-0.11%) and the Hang Seng (-0.07%) following after that overnight sell-off on Wall Street.
One source of better news came from the Chinese PMIs, with the official manufacturing PMI unexpectedly in positive territory in September with a 50.1 reading (vs. 49.7 expected), which is up from a contractionary 49.4 in August. The composite PMI was also in positive territory with a 50.9 reading. However, the Caixin manufacturing PMI unexpectedly deteriorated further to 48.1 in September, so not every indicator was positive. In the meantime, Japanese data showed that industrial production growth came in above expectations with a +2.7% reading (vs. +0.2% expected), as did retail sales with growth of +1.4% (vs. +0.2% expected).
There wasn’t much in the way of other data yesterday. However, the European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator for the Euro Area fell for a 7th consecutive month to 93.7 in September (vs. 95.0 expected).
To the day ahead now, and data releases include the flash Euro Area CPI release for September, as well as the Euro Area unemployment rate for August and German unemployment for September. In the US, we’ll also get August data on personal income and personal spending, the MNI Chicago PMI for September, and the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for September. Finally, central bank speakers include Fed Vice Chair Brainard, the Fed’s Barkin, Bowman and Williams, as well as the ECB’s Schnabel, Elderson and Visco.
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