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American Express Numbers Show What Still Gets People to Spend Money

American Express stock jumped nearly 12% since earnings dropped.

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American Express stock jumped nearly 12% since earnings dropped.

Even though American Express  (AXP) - Get Free Report earnings announced Friday afternoon fell somewhat short of expectations for the quarter, shares still soared to highs unseen for many months due to a number of strong metrics -- quarterly revenue growth of 17%, plans to raise its dividend by 15% from 52 to 60 cents and an annual revenue that surpassed $50 billion for the first time ever.

At $52.9 billion, the latter is driven primarily by an increase in quarterly member spending. Last year, that number was at $42.4 billion. 

According to American Express Chairman and CEO Stephen J. Squeri, the increase can be attributed to higher numbers of millennials gaining in earning power and using their AmEx above other cards to tap into rewards as many approach milestones like marriage, career advancement, and homeownership.

"Millennial and Gen Z customers continue to be the largest drivers of our growth, representing over 60% of proprietary consumer card acquisitions in the quarter and for the full year," Squeri said in an earnings call discussing the results.

People Are Using Their AmEx Cards a Lot

The $52.9 billion number is up 25% from what was seen last quarter and reflects a number of different factors also having to do with post-pandemic spending.

"We ended 2022 with record revenues, which grew 25% from a year earlier, and earnings per share of $9.85, both well above the guidance that we provided when we introduced our long-term growth plan at the start of last year, despite a mixed economic environment," Squeri said.

AmEx further reported that 12.5 million new members signed up for cards in 2022 while existing members used their cards frequently. Fourth-quarter sales at AmEx's U.S. consumer services and commercial segments rose by a respective 23% and 15%.

But higher expenses also led to falling below analyst expectations. The fourth-quarter income of $1.57 billion, or $2.07 a share, is down from $1.72 billion ($2.18 a share) in the fourth quarter of 2021. FactSet analysts had predicted $2.23 a share.

"I'm not sure what that's really a function of right now -- whether it's a function of the economy or of confusion on where to advertise right now," Squeri told Yahoo Finance in reference to lower spending on the part of small business and digital advertisers. "We're going to watch that, but the consumer is really strong, travel bookings are up over 50% vs pre-pandemic."

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It's a Good Time to Be Tracking Credit Card Companies

Immediately after the earnings dropped, AmEx stock started soaring and was up nearly 12% at $175.24 on Friday afternoon. This is a high unseen in months -- the last peak occurred when, on September 12, shares were at $162.45. 

Whether due to or despite analyst threats of a looming recession, people have been using their credit cards very actively throughout the end of 2022.

When it posted its earnings earlier this week, Mastercard  (MA) - Get Free Report surpassed Wall Street expectations of $5.8 billion and $2.65 per share in fourth-quarter earnings. Visa  (V) - Get Free Report also saw revenue rise 11.8% to $7.94 billion in the same quarter. The numbers also reflect higher numbers of people traveling and using their credit cards in different countries.

"Visa's performance in the first quarter of 2023 reflects stable domestic volumes and transactions and a continued recovery of cross-border travel," outgoing CEO Al Kelly said of the results during a call with financial analysts.

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Base network launches 8-week training course for blockchain developers

Base Bootcamp will offer students weekly meetings with a mentor, a dedicated Discord server, and access to Coinbase and Base engineers, the team stated.

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Base Bootcamp will offer students weekly meetings with a mentor, a dedicated Discord server, and access to Coinbase and Base engineers, the team stated.

On October 20, the team behind Ethereum layer-2 Base network announced that it's launching an eight-week training course to turn traditional software developers into blockchain developers. Called “Base Bootcamp,” the new program doesn't cost anything to attend. However, it's designed for “mid to senior level Software Engineering individual contributors” and students must fill out an application and be accepted to enroll. Less than 20 students will be accepted into each “cohort” or class, and the team will stop accepting applications on October 27, the announcement stated.

In its announcement, Base claimed  the program is necessary because most software developers still do not know how to build Web3 apps. “Today, there are fewer than 30,000 onchain developers,” they stated, “compared to nearly 30 million software developers.” This implies that only 0.1% of software developers work in Web3.

The team released an online training program called “Base Camp” earlier in the year, which was open to anyone. But they decided that this wasn’t enough, as “keeping the momentum to learn a complex new skill alone can be difficult.” They claim that Base Bootcamp will provide more support for developers who don’t want to study alone.

Related: Coinbase open sources code for layer-2 network Base

The Base Bootcamp will pair each student with a mentor who they will meet with each week. It will also give them access to a group of Coinbase and Base engineers who will be available during office hours to answer questions. A private Discord server will be created to allow students to communicate with each other and to Base engineers, and additional assignments will be given that will be graded by members of the team. At the end of the program, students will be required to create their own Web3 app and present it to other students.

Although the program does not charge tuition, students are required to put up 1 Ether (ETH) on deposit to ensure that they finish the program. The team claimed that this deposit will be returned to the student upon graduation.

The lack of qualified Web3 developers is a commonly reported problem in the industry. Some Australian educators have suggested teaching Web3 development in high schools as a means of combating the problem. Other companies have tried to create tools to make Web3 development more simple. For example, Circle recently released a set of tools that allow developers to deploy contracts using familiar Web2 methods.

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Greece establishes AI advisory committee to create national strategy

The Greek prime minister created an AI advisory committee comprising some of the country’s top tech, ethics and science professionals.

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The Greek prime minister created an AI advisory committee comprising some of the country’s top tech, ethics and science professionals.

Greek Prime Minister Kryiakos Mitsotakis announced the establishment of an advisory committee to create a national strategy for artificial intelligence (AI) in Greece on Oct. 19.

The Greek government said the “exponential pace” of AI development has created the necessity for an advisory committee under the country’s prime minister. The object of the committee is to prepare Greece for the developments and applications of the technology.

Mitsotakis commented on the establishment of the commission, saying the reception of the technology must be organized before it becomes a daily reality. “This is not about the future but the present,” he said.

The commission will be led by Constantinos Daskalakis, a professor of computer science at MIT, and has professionals in related fields such as technology, ethics, law and science. It also includes Greek researchers and scientists, a part of the diaspora living outside of Greece.

Daskalakis commented on the initiative, saying:

“We will also work in a coordinated manner so that Greece can be a member of the international initiatives for Artificial Intelligence that are being developed within the framework of the International Organization of Artificial Intelligence.”

Related: How Bitcoin ATMs in Greece fare during a record-breaking tourist season

A central component of the advisory committee will also be formulating policy recommendations and creating guidelines for a long-term national strategy.

According to the announcement, the AI strategy will include considering its impact on the economy and society, improving productivity, increasing innovation and strengthening local infrastructure, among other things.

Greece is among the 27 member states of the European Union that would be subject to the EU’s forthcoming EU AI Act

Earlier in October, EU officials announced that they are considering even more restrictive regulations for large AI models such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Meta’s Llama 2.

Magazine: ‘AI has killed the industry’: EasyTranslate boss on adapting to change

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Trends and Considerations in Adaptive Reuse

Low occupancy across the office sector as well as high demand for housing has many real estate development professionals asking whether adaptive reuse…

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Low occupancy across the office sector as well as high demand for housing has many real estate development professionals asking whether adaptive reuse of commercial buildings may be an option to add supply during the housing crisis. A NAIOP CRE.Converge conference panel in Seattle this week investigated that very question, focusing on a successful conversion case study in Alexandria, Virginia, as well as exploring what it takes to get conversion projects across the finish line. 

Completed in 2020, The Foundry transformed an underutilized federal office building into a mixed-use residential property. It sold in 2021 for $262 million, after the developer paid $50 million for the property and $150 million in construction, design, and carrying cost. The sale was CoStar’s 2021 Deal of the Year. Office conversions give developers a number of benefits: they can provide opportunities in attractive markets with limited available open space while saving time and money compared to ground-up construction. At the same time, they also present their own challenges, particularly around layout and structural considerations.  

One of the most prominent barriers to office conversion projects is the layout of these properties. Office buildings tend to have deeper floor plans than apartments, leading to issues with daylight penetration. Panel moderator Heidi Leinbach, AIA, NCARB, associate principal with architecture firm Cooper Carry, worked on The Foundry, and inventoried a number of solutions her team implemented on-site.

  1. Large windows in every unit.
  2. Clerestory windows added where possible.
  3. Making use of building core space for amenities such as fitness areas, a sports bar and storage.
  4. Three stories, added at the top of the property with additional units and rooftop amenities such as a pool, to replace lower floors given over to parking.

R. Mark Taylor, residential managing director at American Real Estate Partners, explained that adaptations like these can only work if the property is in a strong enough location to begin with. “At the end of the day, is the building located somewhere where people want to live, and will they pay a premium rent to live there? Because if you’re not in a submarket where you’re not getting at least $3 a foot in rent, you’re not doing an adaptive reuse,” he said. 

“Before you even get into doing the due diligence, the numbers have to pencil write on what the finished product is going to be. Once you know what that unit count, square footage, all those factors are, then we’re going to  see if the existing building can actually support it,” said TJ Sawner, project executive at Balfour Beatty Construction, who also worked on the project. 

Some of those building characteristics adaptive reuse developers should pay attention to include concrete work, which may have been built to previous codes, asbestos throughout the building, and how each floor will need to be wired and plumbed, which may impact each floor’s structural engineering. 

Steve Smith, managing director at Cooper Carry, suggested looking for new ways to collaborate with municipalities, with the possible end goal of gaining flexibility on some of the local government’s design requirements. “Most of our jurisdictions, certainly all the ones we play in, have sustainability requirements,” he said. “What’s greener than keeping the building where it is, all the embedded carbon that is with that…there needs to be some acknowledgement of that. So, I always say, look for a way to stretch your arms out and give some concessions instead of having your hand out, saying, ‘What are you going to do for me at the end of the day?’”

The panelists acknowledged that far from every building is a good candidate for adaptive reuse, but in the right circumstances, these projects are very possible. “[In] today’s metrics, you know you have to get a six-and-a-half untrended yield on cost,” Taylor said. “You need to get an IRR in the 17-plus range, and you’re going to get an MOIC (Multiple on Invested Cost) at least 2x, because your debt constant these days is north of 9%.”

Adaptive reuse projects may not be a recommended strategy for developers without deep expertise in the field, but with the right teams, they can represent a meaningful solution to an imbalance in the nation’s office and housing markets.

Featured image courtesy of CambridgeSeven.


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This post is brought to you by JLL, the social media and conference blog sponsor of NAIOP’s CRE.Converge 2023. Learn more about JLL at www.us.jll.com or www.jll.ca.

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