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Air Canada’s Proposed Takeover Of Transat Faces EU Anti-Trust Probe

Air Canada’s Proposed Takeover Of Transat Faces EU Anti-Trust Probe

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Air Canada’s (ACDVF) proposed bid for tour operator Transat is being challenged by European regulators amid concern that the deal may hamper air traffic competition between European countries and Canada, leading to higher prices for consumers.

The European Commission opened an in-depth investigation to assess the proposed acquisition and will announce its decision on Sept. 30. Back in August, Air Canada shareholders approved the C$720 million acquisition of Transat, which operates Air Transat.

In a statement, the Commission said it is concerned that the proposed transaction could significantly reduce competition on 33 origin and destination (O&D) citypairs between European Economic Area countries and Canada. These include 29 O&Ds where both companies offer direct services.

“We will carefully assess whether the proposed transaction would negatively affect competition in these markets leading to higher prices, reduced quality or less choice for travellers flying over the Atlantic,” said Executive Vice-President Margrethe Vestager, responsible for European Union competition policy. "This is a challenging time, especially in markets severely impacted by the coronavirus outbreak, but a return to normal and healthy market conditions must be based on markets that remain competitive.”

The Commission added that it will investigate the extent to which the coronavirus crisis would impact Air Canada, Transat and their competitors' operations and hence the competitive landscape in the mid- and long-term.

In response to the probe, Transat said that it had notified Air Canada that it plans to postpone the outside date set for the transaction by one month to July 27. As a result, the company now expects the deal to close in the fourth quarter of this year.

Shares in Air Canada dropped 2% to $11.93 in U.S. trading on Friday. The stock is down 67% year-to-date.

Wall Street analysts have a cautiously optimistic outlook on the stock. The Moderate Buy consensus is based on 4 Buy ratings and 4 Hold ratings. In light of the recent plunge in the shares, the $18.88 average price target reflects 58% upside potential in the coming 12 months.

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The post Air Canada’s Proposed Takeover Of Transat Faces EU Anti-Trust Probe appeared first on TipRanks Financial Blog.

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Economics

Taylor Wimpey share price up 3% as housebuilder promises to return more cash to investors

The Taylor Wimpey share price has risen by 3.3% today, reversing some of the…
The post Taylor Wimpey share price up 3% as housebuilder promises to return more cash to investors first appeared on Trading and Investment News.

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The Taylor Wimpey share price has risen by 3.3% today, reversing some of the losses taken over a bad start to the year that has seen the housebuilder’s valuation decline by over 10%, after the company today promised investors it would return more cash to them over coming months. The windfall comes as a result of what Taylor Wimpey described as an “excellent” 2021.

Demand for larger properties, especially houses with gardens, has leapt as a result of the pandemic. As well families spending more time at home desiring more space, buyers were further encouraged to take the leap by the stamp duty holiday that ran from 2020 until late last year, offering savings of up to £15,000. Rock bottom interest rates and fierce competition between providers also led to cheaper mortgages which helped maximise selling prices.

taylor wimpey plc

The combination of favourable headwinds means the homebuilder expects to now realise an operating profit of £820 million for 2021 from the sale of a little under 14,000 homes. That represents a growth of 47% in the number of new-built properties delivered compared to 2020, when construction work and administrative processes were delayed by Covid-19 disruption.

As a result, Taylor Wimpey finished last year with a bank balance of £837 million. It will now, it says, see how much cash is left once it has paid out its dividend and planned for expenses over the rest of the year. Any “excess cash” surplus will be returned to shareholders, most likely through a major share buyback. The company will confirm details alongside its full-year results, due to be reported in March.

Taylor Wimpey is worth around £6 billion and is a member of the FTSE 100. It has existed in its present format since 2007 when created out of a merger between the housebuilders George Wimpey and Taylor Woodrow. The deal was legendarily struck by current chief executive Pete Redfern at a service station on the M40.

Despite sector concerns over how much it will cost to replace dangerous cladding used on buildings over the past 20 years and now banned as a result of the Grenfell Tower scandal, Taylor Wimpey has repeatedly stated it is confident the £165 million it has set aside to cover related expenses will suffice. It has been challenged on the sum but still considers it a “reasonable estimate”.

If the cladding provision does prove sufficient, that should leave plenty of cash for redistribution to investors through a major share buyback over 2022.

The post Taylor Wimpey share price up 3% as housebuilder promises to return more cash to investors first appeared on Trading and Investment News.

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Spread & Containment

Zinc Outlook 2022: Small Refined Zinc Deficit Ahead

Click here to read the previous zinc outlook. Following an uncertain 2020, zinc prices steadily rose throughout 2021 to hit a 14 year high in the second half of the year.The power crisis and an increasing demand for the base metal as the strict lockdown..

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Click here to read the previous zinc outlook.

Following an uncertain 2020, zinc prices steadily rose throughout 2021 to hit a 14 year high in the second half of the year.

The power crisis and an increasing demand for the base metal as the strict lockdown restrictions were lifted supported prices during the 12 month period.

As the new year begins, the Investing News Network (INN) caught up with analysts to find out what’s ahead for zinc supply, demand and prices.


Zinc outlook 2022: 2021 in review


Prices kicked off the year above the US$2,800 per tonne mark after rallying for most of the second half of 2020. The recovery in the steel sector helped the base metal throughout the first half of 2021 as COVID-19 lockdown measures eased, supporting demand for zinc.

Commenting on the main trends seen in the market in 2021, Helen O’Cleary of CRU Group told INN zinc’s demand recovery was stronger than expected in the US and Europe but lagged in Asia excluding China.

In October, zinc prices hit their highest level in 14 years, hovering around the US$3,800 mark on the back of the power crisis and cost associated with carbon emissions.

“Zinc’s price outperformed expectations in 2021 on the back of strong demand and smelter disruption, particularly in Q4 when European smelters started to cut back due to record high energy prices,” O’Cleary said.

One of the world’s top zinc smelters, Nyrstar (EBR:NYR), said in October it was planning to cut production at its European smelter operations. Mining giant Glencore (LSE:GLEN) also said it was adjusting production to reduce exposure to peak power pricing periods during the day.

Speaking with INN about zinc’s performance, Carlos Sanchez of CPM Group said zinc has been in recovery since prices bottomed out in 2020, helped in part by vaccination globally and also by supply disruptions around the world.

“The most recent issue is the concern about high energy input costs into smelters in Europe — that's been pushing prices higher recently,” he said.

Even though prices could not sustain that level until the end of the year, prices remained above US$3,500 on the last trading day of 2021.

Zinc outlook 2022: Supply and demand


As mentioned, demand for base metals saw an upward turn in 2021 as the world economy recovered on the back of stimulus plans and as vaccination rollouts took place in many parts of the world.

Looking at what’s ahead for demand in 2022, CRU is expecting Chinese demand growth to slow to 1.1 percent year-on-year as the effects of stimulus wane.

“In the world ex. China we expect demand to grow by 2.4 percent, with the ongoing auto sector recovery partially offsetting the construction sector slowdown in Europe and the US,” O’Cleary said.

CPM is also expecting demand to remain healthy in 2022, both in China and outside of China, including demand from developing countries.

“One thing that remains uncertain is what will happen with COVID,” Sanchez said.

Moving onto the supply side of the picture, the analyst expects that if everything remains status quo, disruptions are unlikely to happen.

“There are going to be some blips here and there, but there have been some labor issues in Peru, yes, there's been some energy problems in Europe and China, but that's a fact in zinc output and in demand to an extent,” Sanchez said. “But really the catalysts that we don't know, and how it can affect prices is how COVID will impact industries.”

For her part, O’Cleary is expecting most disruptions in Q1, with CRU currently having a disruption allowance of 55,000 tonnes for that period.

“But this may well tip over into Q2,” she said. CRU is expecting mine supply to grow by 5.10 percent year-on-year in 2022 and for the concentrates market to register a 190,000 tonnes surplus.

Meanwhile, smelter output is forecast to grow by less than 1 percent year-on-year in 2022, according to the firm, which is currently forecasting a small refined zinc deficit in 2022.

“Should smelter disruption exceed our 55,000 t allowance the deficit could grow,” O’Cleary said. “But high prices and a tight Chinese market could lead to further releases of refined zinc from the State Reserves Bureau stockpile, which could push the market towards balance or even a small surplus.”

Similarly, CPM Group is also expecting the market to shift into a deficit in 2022.

“That's due to the strong demand, recovering economies of COVID and its financial economic effects,” Sanchez said.

Zinc outlook 2022: What’s ahead


Commenting on how prices might perform next year, O’Cleary said prices are likely to remain high in Q1 due to the threat of further energy-related cutbacks in Europe during the winter heating season.

O’Cleary suggested investors to keep an eye on high prices and inflation, as these factors could hamper zinc demand growth.

Similarly, CPM Group is expecting prices to remain above current levels and to average around US$3,400 for the year.

“I wouldn't be surprised to see zinc top US$4,000,” Sanchez said. “But at the same time, I don't think it holds above there; you'd have to have really strong fundamentals for that to happen, stronger than what's happening now.”

The CPM director suggested zinc investors should keep an eye on COVID developments and be quick movers, taking a position whether it's short or long.

Looking ahead, for FocusEconomics analysts, prices for zinc are seen cooling markedly next year before falling further in 2023, as output gradually improves and new mines come online.

“Moreover, fading logistical disruptions and easing energy prices will exert additional downward pressure, although solid demand for steel will continue to support prices,” they said in their December report, adding that pandemic-related uncertainty clouds the outlook.

Panelists recently polled by the firm see prices averaging US$2,827 per metric tonne in Q4 2022 and US$2,651 per metric tonne in Q4 2023.

Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time news updates.

Securities Disclosure: I, Priscila Barrera, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.

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Economics

TOURMALINE INCREASES QUARTERLY DIVIDEND BY 11%, DECLARES A $1.25/SHARE SPECIAL DIVIDEND AND PROVIDES OPERATIONAL UPDATE

 Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TSX: TOU) ("Tourmaline" or the "Company") is pleased to announce a quarterly dividend increase and special cash dividend and provide an operational update. QUARTERLY DIVIDEND INCREASE AND SPECIAL DIVIDEND Tourmaline…

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 Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TSX: TOU) ("Tourmaline" or the "Company") is pleased to announce a quarterly dividend increase and special cash dividend and provide an operational update.

QUARTERLY DIVIDEND INCREASE AND SPECIAL DIVIDEND

Tourmaline is pleased to announce both a quarterly base dividend increase of 11% and the declaration of a special cash dividend of $1.25 /share, given the continued strong financial performance and outlook for the Company.  The quarterly dividend will be increased from $0.18 /share to $0.20 /share beginning in the first quarter of 2022.  The special dividend, the second by the Company, is part of Tourmaline's comprehensive shareholder return plan and will be paid on February 1, 2022 , to shareholders of record on January 25 , 2022.  This special cash dividend is designated as an "eligible dividend" for Canadian income tax purposes.

The Company anticipates paying further special dividends in 2022 as well as utilizing its normal course issuer bid during the course of the year.  Net debt (1) is forecast below the long-term net debt target of $1.0 - $1.2 billion .

EP OPERATIONS UPDATE

  • Tourmaline achieved the 2021 exit production target of 500,000 boepd and expects first quarter 2022 production to range between 500,000 and 510,000 boepd.
  • Current liquids production is 115,000 bpd, including 35,000 bpd of condensate.
  • Full-year 2022 production guidance remains at 500,000 boepd on unchanged EP capital spending of $1.125 billion .
  • Q4 2021 production averaged approximately 485,000 boepd, within the lower end of guidance.  Production was impacted by approximately 6,000 boepd in December due to weather related outages and minor EP operational and start-up delays.
  • The Company plans to drill 85 wells (gross), complete 97 wells (gross) and bring on production 83 new wells (gross) during the first quarter of 2022.  The Company accelerated the drilling of one NEBC pad and fracs on two additional pads into 2H December 2021 from Q1 2022, for operational continuity and to be in a position to take advantage of stronger winter natural gas prices.
  • Tourmaline is currently operating 13 drilling rigs and five frac spreads across the three operated EP complexes.
  • The two 2H 2021 BC major facility expansions were completed on budget.  The 2022 EP capital budget contains minimal new facility expenditures resulting in anticipated record 2022 capital efficiencies of approximately $6,000 /boepd.

________________________________

(1)

"Net debt" is defined as bank debt and senior unsecured notes plus working capital deficit (adjusted for the fair value of financial instruments, short-term lease liabilities, short-term decommissioning obligations and unrealized foreign exchange in working capital deficit). See "Non-GAAP Financial Measures" in this news release and in the Company's Q3 2021 Management's Discussion and Analysis.

Reader Advisories

CURRENCY

All amounts in this news release are stated in Canadian dollars unless otherwise specified.

FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION

This news release contains forward-looking information and statements (collectively, " forward-looking information ") within the meaning of applicable securities laws. The use of any of the words "forecast", "expect", "anticipate", "continue", "estimate", "objective", "ongoing", "on track", "may", "will", "project", "should", "believe", "plans", "intends" and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking information. More particularly and without limitation, this news release contains forward-looking information concerning Tourmaline's plans and other aspects of its anticipated future operations, management focus, objectives, strategies, financial, operating and production results, business opportunities and shareholder return plan, including the following: the use of the normal course issuer bid; the future declaration and payment of dividends and the timing and amount thereof which assumes, among other things, the availability of free cash flow to fund such dividends; anticipated petroleum and natural gas production and production growth for various periods including estimated production levels for Q1 2022 and full-year 2022; expected full-year 2022 EP capital spending levels; the number of expected wells to be drilled, completed, and brought on production in Q1 2022; anticipated winter natural gas prices; and anticipated 2022 capital efficiencies. The forward-looking information is based on certain key expectations and assumptions made by Tourmaline, including expectations and assumptions concerning the following: prevailing and future commodity prices and currency exchange rates; the degree to which Tourmaline's operations and production may be disrupted by circumstances attributable to supply chain disruptions and the COVID-19 pandemic and the responses of governments and the public to the pandemic; applicable royalty rates and tax laws; interest rates; future well production rates and reserve volumes; operating costs, the timing of receipt of regulatory approvals; the performance of existing wells; the success obtained in drilling new wells; anticipated timing and results of capital expenditures; the sufficiency of budgeted capital expenditures in carrying out planned activities; the timing, location and extent of future drilling operations; the benefits to be derived from acquisitions; the state of the economy and the exploration and production business including the impacts of  the COVID-19 pandemic and the responses of governments and the public to the pandemic thereon; the availability and cost of financing, labour and services; and ability to market crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids successfully. Without limitation of the foregoing, future dividend payments, if any, and the level thereof is uncertain, as the Company's dividend policy and the funds available for the payment of dividends from time to time is dependent upon, among other things, free cash flow, financial requirements  for the Company's operations and the execution of its growth strategy, fluctuations in working capital and the timing and amount of capital expenditures, debt service requirements and other factors  beyond the Company's control. Further, the ability of Tourmaline to pay dividends will be subject to applicable laws (including the satisfaction of the solvency test contained in applicable corporate legislation) and contractual restrictions contained in the instruments governing its indebtedness, including its credit facility.

Although Tourmaline believes that the expectations and assumptions on which such forward-looking information is based are reasonable, undue reliance should not be placed on the forward-looking information because Tourmaline can give no assurances that it will prove to be correct. Since forward-looking information addresses future events and conditions, by its very nature it involves inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from those currently anticipated due to a number of factors and risks. These include, but are not limited to: the risks associated with the oil and gas industry in general such as operational risks in development, exploration and production; delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration or development projects or capital expenditures; supply chain disruptions; the uncertain impacts of COVID-19 on Tourmaline's business, and the societal, economic and governmental response to COVID-19; the uncertainty of estimates and projections relating to reserves, production, revenues, costs and expenses; health, safety and environmental risks; commodity price and exchange rate fluctuations; interest rate fluctuations; marketing and transportation; loss of markets; environmental risks; competition; incorrect assessment of the value of acquisitions; failure to complete or realize the anticipated benefits of acquisitions or dispositions; ability to access sufficient capital from internal and external sources; uncertainties associated with counterparty credit risk; failure to obtain required regulatory and other approvals; and changes in legislation, including but not limited to tax laws, royalties and environmental regulations. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of factors is not exhaustive.

Additional information on these and other factors that could affect Tourmaline, or its operations or financial results, are included in the Company's most recently filed  Management's Discussion and Analysis (See "Forward-Looking Statements" therein), Annual Information Form (See "Risk Factors" and "Forward-Looking Statements" therein) and other reports on file with applicable securities regulatory authorities and may be accessed through the SEDAR website ( www.sedar.com ) or Tourmaline's website ( www.tourmalineoil.com ).

The forward-looking information contained in this news release is made as of the date hereof and Tourmaline undertakes no obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, unless expressly required by applicable securities laws.

BOE EQUIVALENCY

In this news release, production information may be presented on a "barrel of oil equivalent" or "BOE" basis. BOEs may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A BOE conversion ratio of 6 Mcf:1 bbl is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. In addition, as the value ratio between natural gas and crude oil based on the current prices of natural gas and crude oil is significantly different from the energy equivalency of 6:1, utilizing a conversion on a 6:1 basis may be misleading as an indication of value.

NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES

This news release includes references to "net debt" which is a financial measure commonly used in the oil and gas industry and does not have a standardized meaning prescribed by International Financial Reporting Standards ("GAAP"). Accordingly, the Company's use of this term may not be comparable to similarly defined measures presented by other companies. Management uses the term "net debt" for its own performance measures and to provide shareholders and potential investors with a measurement of the Company's efficiency. Investors are cautioned that this non-GAAP measure should not be construed as an alternative to financial measures determined in accordance with GAAP as an indication of the Company's performance. "Net debt" is defined as bank debt and senior unsecured notes plus working capital deficit (adjusted for the fair value of financial instruments, short-term lease liabilities, short-term decommissioning obligations and unrealized foreign exchange in working capital deficit). See "Non-GAAP Financial Measures" in the most recent Management's Discussion and Analysis for more information on the definition and description of this term.

OIL AND GAS METRICS

This news release contains certain oil and gas metrics which do not have standardized meanings or standard methods of calculation and therefore such measures may not be comparable to similar measures used by other companies and should not be used to make comparisons. Such metrics have been included in this document to provide readers with additional measures to evaluate the Company's performance; however, such measures are not reliable indicators of the Company's future performance and future performance may not compare to the Company's performance in previous periods and therefore such metrics should not be unduly relied upon.

SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION REGARDING PRODUCT TYPES

This news release includes references to 2021 exit production, Q4 2021 production, Q1 2022 expected average daily production and full-year 2022 expected average daily production. The following table is intended to provide supplemental information about the product type composition for each of the production figures that are provided in this news release:


Light and Medium
Crude Oil (1)


Conventional
Natural Gas


Shale Natural Gas


Natural Gas
Liquids (1)


Oil Equivalent
Total


Company Gross
(Bbls)


Company Gross
(Mcf)


Company Gross
(Mcf)


Company Gross
(Bbls)


Company Gross
(Boe)

2021 Exit Production........

40,000


1,334,000


1,000,000


71,000


500,000

Q4 2021
Production........................

40,850


1,300,000


969,500


65,900


485,000

Q1 2022 Expected
Average Daily Production

42,000


1,250,000


1,090,000


73,000


505,000

2022 Expected Average
Daily Production...............

42,600


1,224,000


1,085,000


72,600


500,000











(1)

For the purposes of this disclosure, condensate has been combined with Light and Medium Crude Oil as the associated revenues and certain costs of condensate are similar to Light and Medium Crude Oil.   Accordingly, NGLs in this disclosure exclude condensate.

CERTAIN DEFINITIONS:

1H

first half

2H

second half

bbl

barrel

bbls/day

barrels per day

bbl/mmcf

barrels per million cubic feet

bcf

billion cubic feet

bcfe

billion cubic feet equivalent

bpd or bbl/d

barrels per day

boe

barrel of oil equivalent

boepd or boe/d

barrel of oil equivalent per day

bopd or bbl/d

barrel of oil, condensate or liquids per day

DUC

drilled but uncompleted wells

EP

exploration and production

gj

gigajoule

gjs/d

gigajoules per day

mbbls

thousand barrels

mmbbls

million barrels

mboe

thousand barrels of oil equivalent

mboepd

thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day

mcf

thousand cubic feet

mcfpd or mcf/d

thousand cubic feet per day

mcfe

thousand cubic feet equivalent

mmboe

million barrels of oil equivalent

mmbtu

million British thermal units

mmbtu/d

million British thermal units per day

mmcf

million cubic feet

mmcfpd or mmcf/d

million cubic feet per day

MPa

megapascal

mstb

thousand stock tank barrels

natural gas

conventional natural gas and shale gas

NCIB

normal course issuer bid

NGL or NGLs

natural gas liquids

tcf

trillion cubic feet

ABOUT TOURMALINE OIL CORP.

Tourmaline is an investment grade Canadian senior crude oil and natural gas exploration and production company focused on providing strong and predictable long-term growth and a steady return to shareholders through an aggressive exploration, development, production and acquisition program in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin by building its extensive asset base in its three core exploration and production areas and exploiting and developing these areas to increase reserves, production and cash flows at an attractive return on invested capital.

SOURCE Tourmaline Oil Corp.

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