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A Genomics Event: Missing the Sunshine but Basking in Science

The 2021 AGBT meeting went virtual, denying attendees the usual beachside venue, but it still delivered the hottest advances in spatial transcriptomics, epigenomics, and COVID-19.
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Like most people at the time, those of us who attended the Advances in Genome Biology and Technology (AGBT) meeting in February 2020 had yet to fully appreciate how much devastation would be wreaked by the COVID-19 pandemic. We enjoyed the meeting’s venue, a Marriot hotel in Marco Island, FL. We took advantage of the usual networking activities. And we crowded the presentations and exhibit spaces. Many of us had little idea that after we flew home, we would find ourselves, well, grounded.

With the pandemic still in our midst, the March 2021 AGBT meeting was, as expected, a virtual event. Although a “chat” in the networking lounge was no match for a conversation by the Marriott pool, one element remained the same—the presentations were chock-full of tremendous science. During his welcome, Eric Green, MD, PhD, director of the National Human Genome Research Institute (NHGRI), shared what is no doubt a widely shared sentiment. The AGBT meeting, he said, remains the annual showcase for the “best of genomics research.” The 2021 program ranged from COVID-19 to CRISPR, and from spatial transcriptomics to spider silks.

The biggest buzz of the meeting surrounded the handful of product launches in spatial transcriptomics, a field that has been making rapid progress, as was evident in several presentations. Epigenomics was also on display, with several companies highlighting advances in methylation detection. And COVID-19 took the coveted last spots of the conference, highlighting the importance of emerging variants and the role that genomics is playing in quelling the pandemic.

AGBT general meeting screenshot
Genomics companies often decide that the AGBT general meeting presents a suitable occasion for announcing significant developments. After all, the meeting is where cutting-edge technologies and applications are discussed by academics, commercial researchers, business executives, and financial analysts. Big splashes of the past include the launch of Pacific Biosciences’ PacBio RS and of Oxford Nanopore Technologies’ MinION. Because this year’s event was virtual, the splashes were figurative. Still, they made waves.

Increasing diversity for All of Us

Addressing the lack of diversity in genomics databases and studies is a priority in the genomics community. The conference kicked off with an update on the National Institutes of Health’s All of Us Research Program, presented by the program’s CEO, Josh Denny, MD. Launched in May 2018, All of Us currently has more than 366,000 participants with some 272,000 completing the initial steps of the program; more than 80% are underrepresented in biomedical research. The goal is to deliver a rich database that is available to all researchers and that includes data from one million or more participants.

A second initiative focused on diversity is the Human Pangenome Reference Consortium (HPRC), an effort launched by the NHGRI. The HPRC was represented at the AGBT meeting by Karen Miga, PhD, the director of the HPRC’s Data Production Center. Miga, who is also assistant research scientist at the University of California, Santa Cruz, described the HPRC’s efforts to produce a more complete reference of human genome diversity. She explained that the program’s goal is to complete whole genomes of more than 350 diverse diploid humans or 700 phased haplotypes. According to Miga, this comprehensive map of genome variation should foster a new ecosystem of pangenomics tools.

Spatial: The freshmen

In one way, perhaps, the 2021 AGBT meeting felt a lot like the 2020 meeting—spatial transcriptomics was still the star of the show. Last year, a key spatial transcriptomics development was the commercialization of fluorescent in situ sequencing (FISSEQ) technology, which originated in George Church’s laboratory. The FISSEQ technology from Readcoor had a splashy launch, which was followed later in the year by news that the company had been acquired by 10X Genomics. This year, several new spatial technologies were paraded by other companies.

The Boston-area-based Vizgen presented the Merscope platform, which incorporates the multiplexed error-robust fluorescence in situ hybridization (MERFISH) technology developed by Xiaowei Zhuang, PhD, a Howard Hughes Medical Institute Investigator and professor of chemistry and chemical biology at Harvard University. MERFISH, first described in a 2015 Science paper, is based on single-molecule FISH and incorporates combinatorial labeling with error-robust encoding schemes. Vizgen will offer standard and customizable panels and plans to release the first commercial product this summer.

Silicon Valley–based Rebus Biosystems launched its spatial platform. The platform features the synthetic aperture optics (SAO) technology that the company’s co-founder and chief technology officer, Josh Ryu, PhD, developed when he was a graduate student at MIT. The technology reconstructs low-resolution images to create high-resolution images. The company emphasized the platform’s high resolution and ease of use. Currently, it can analyze 30 genes at most, making it best for researchers who approach their spatial experiments with prior knowledge of what they are looking for.

Resolve Biosciences had a lower profile at the meeting. Headquartered in Monheim, Germany, Resolve uses molecular cartography to obtain single-cell information that preserves spatial context. The company said that its technology is currently available through an early-access program. Veranome Biosystems, another spatial technology newcomer, had its latest work featured in a poster and in a short presentation given by the company’s collaborator, the Genome Institute of Singapore.

Spatial: The three-year-old veterans

“Who would have thought, three years ago, when we did the first spatial summit at AGBT, we’d be looking at data and capabilities like this?” asked Joseph Beechem, PhD, chief scientific officer and senior vice president of research and development at NanoString Technologies. “Even I wouldn’t have dreamt three years ago that we would be where we are now.”

Beechem, who has been attending AGBT for 20 years, gave a sense of how quickly this field is moving. In 2019, Beechem presented spatial profiling of 84 genes. In 2020, he spoke about the 1,800-gene cancer transcriptome atlas. This year, it was the whole transcriptome—22,000 genes.

NanoString indicated that it had introduced several upgrades to its GeoMx digital spatial profiler over the past year. For example, the company announced the availability of the Whole Transcriptome Atlas (WTA) for both human and mouse tissue. The transcriptomes follow the spatial axis, or shape, of the tissue under investigation. It’s not an average transcriptome. Rather, it’s associated with those unique, biological compartments. “The information content is just incredible,” declares Beechem.

Not only can GeoMx users read out high-plex RNA, they also can “read out high-plex protein, with the NGS readout, on exactly the same slide,” Beechem asserted.

Beechem also introduced the new spatial molecular imager (SMI), which he called the Hubble Space Telescope of spatial biology. Whereas the GeoMx attends to the whole transcriptome profiling of key tissue macroscopic substructures (roughly 100 µm), the SMI focuses on analyzing RNA and protein expression at single-cell and subcellular resolution (roughly 1 µm). With SMI, tissue samples may be analyzed using ~1000-plex RNA panels and 100-plex protein panels.

The capabilities of the GeoMx and the SMI complement each other in spatial biology research, Beechem asserts. In his view, the SMI is useful in single-cell discovery, where the focus is on single-cell identity and signaling, and the GeoMx is useful in translational discovery and high-throughput clinical applications.

10X Genomics held its inaugural online event, Xperience, the week before AGBT, where the company discussed the new capabilities it expects to bring to its well-established Visium spatial platform later this year or in 2022. The company described the Visium CytAssist, a benchtop instrument that will stain and prescreen tissue sections prior to Visium spatial experiments. 10X Genomics also teased that next year it will introduce the Visium HD, a product that will provide 400 times the resolution of the current Visium.

Optical mapping fills in gaps for pediatric neurological disorders

“Next-generation sequencing is important, but it is only part of the story,” said Catherine Brownstein, MPH, PhD, research associate, Division of Genetics and Genomics, Boston Children’s Hospital. Brownstein also serves as the scientific director of the Manton Center for Orphan Disease Research. She studies rare neurological disorders in children and is interested in finding ways to help patients avoid prolonged diagnostic odysseys. At the AGBT event, Brownstein presented the story of how investigators determined the genetic basis of early-onset psychosis in patients younger than 14.

Using a chromosomal array, investigators established that one patient had a deletion of three genes on chromosome 16—a notoriously difficult chromosome to analyze. When Brownstein used the Saphyr instrument from Bionano Genomics to look for structural variants (SVs), she obtained optical mapping data showing that the patient was missing 10 genes. By studying extra-long fragments of DNA molecules—from 400 kb to 1 megabase—the Saphyr can detect SVs that are missed using traditional DNA analysis techniques. Brownstein said that the Saphyr can do in three days what took her three years while she was working on her doctorate.

Bionano Genomics’ genome imaging tool
Bionano Genomics’ genome imaging tool, the Saphyr System, relies on the direct imaging of ultralong DNA molecules. The migration of DNA through the Saphyr was depicted in a video presented at the AGBT meeting by Catherine Brownstein, PhD, a researcher at Boston Children’s Hospital. She noted how the DNA is linearized as it passes through the Saphyr’s NanoChannel arrays. She added that as in karyotyping, the DNA can be visualized directly from end to end without any amplification.

Brownstein and colleagues at Boston Children’s Hospital are now part of the COVID-19 host genome SV consortium and will focus on studying multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C). They will use Bionano’s Saphyr to investigate the role of host genetics by performing optical mapping on more than 80 children that have been admitted at the hospital with MIS-C.

Methylation detection

At the AGBT meeting, three of the sponsors delivered presentations about new tools for analyzing epigenomics and methylation. For example, James Hadfield, PhD, director of epigenomics oncology translational medicine at AstraZeneca, focused on the benchmarking of four methylation technologies: Enzymatic Methyl-seq (EM-seq), from New England Biolabs (NEB); Methyl-Seq, from SwiftBio; 5-methylcytosine capture; and EPIC, from Illumina.

When comparing EM-seq, an enzymatic alternative to bisulfite conversion, and Methyl-Seq, in a whole genome methylation sequencing workflow, Hadfield found that EM-seq generates longer libraries with fewer read duplicates and higher complexity but has lower mapping efficiencies than Methyl-Seq. Total efficiency is similar across the two methods, but EM-seq performs better in regions of high GC content and generates higher coverage over CpG islands. Despite the higher quality libraries produced by EM-Seq, both methods captured biologically relevant signal.

Much of the interest in DNA methylation stems from the changes to the methylome that occur during cancer, where methylation is lost throughout the genome and is gained in CpG islands that typically lack methylation. The need for flexible tools to confirm epigenetic signatures from comprehensive genome-wide scans was discussed by Jörg Tost, PhD, director of the Laboratory for Epigenetics and Environment, Centre National de Recherche en Génomique Humaine, CEA-Institut de Biologie François Jacob. Tost, together with QIAGEN, has developed an assay that can analyze a “huge number of CpG in a sequencing-based approach.” This customizable approach will hopefully allow for highly multiplexed identification of DNA methylation changes in complex human disorders.

Emily Leproust, PhD, CEO of Twist Bioscience, introduced Kenneth Chahine, PhD, CEO of Helio Health, an artificial intelligence–driven healthcare company, to discuss diagnostic applications. Specifically, Chahine described how his company is commercializing a methylation technology that can be used to evaluate blood samples and expedite the detection of cancer. Twist recently partnered with NEB. The companies incorporated Twist’s custom methylation panels to EM-seq to create an end-to-end methylation sequencing system, the Twist NGS Methylation Detection System, to improve targeted methylation sequencing.

Finding a needle in a haystack

TwinStrand Biosciences presented its duplex sequencing technology last year, focusing on how the technology can detect genetic variants at very low levels. The company has since expanded the technology to allogeneic cell therapy tracking, an application that could be particularly useful during anticancer cellular therapies such as chimeric antigen receptor T-cell therapies.

Genomics and COVID-19

The closing session featured four leading scientists working in COVID-19 and genomics. Jeffrey Barrett, MD, director of the COVID-19 Genomics Initiative at the Wellcome Sanger Institute, described work in the United Kingdom to sequence SARS-CoV-2 variants. The COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium, formed in March 2020, is at the center of this herculean effort. Although numbers are changing every week, as of mid-March, the United Kingdom had contributed more than 300,000 samples, sequencing over 20,000 each week. It is, Barrett said, “a globally unique scale.”

The perspective of a public health laboratory was shared by Natalie Prystajecky, PhD, program head for the Environmental Microbiology program at the British Columbia Centre for Disease Control Public Health Laboratory. She detailed how the program has been scaled up to support the assessment of community transmission, school-based transmission, and hospital outbreaks, as well as the tracking of variants of concern since December 2020. Prystajecky also recalled that on Boxing Day, while she was enjoying a rare moment of relaxation, drinking a beer, she learned that the first confirmed B.1.1.7 variant had come off the sequencer.

Since the program implemented routine screening of all positives, it has been decentralizing and intensifying its work—necessary measures if the program is to sustain the aggressive detection of variants of concern. Prystajecky’s team works from 7:00 am to midnight, seven days a week, despite supply chain issues and the need for more robotics (which were bought on eBay.)

Trevor Bedford, PhD, associate professor, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, presented the evolutionary dynamics of SARS-CoV-2—the emergence of variants of concern, the circulation patterns, and the required scale of genomic surveillance. He shared data from nextstrain.org, the online tool that he helped build to analyze viral genomic data.

NextStrain generated the diagram of SARS-CoV-2 genomes
NextStrain, an open-source project dedicated to the real-time tracking of pathogen evolution, originally focused on the genome of the influenza virus. Since then, NextStrain has become a key player in SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance, where the project contributes its analytical prowess. Using GISAID data (3,870 SARS-CoV-2 genomes sampled from the start of the pandemic to March 2021), NextStrain generated the diagram shown here. It depicts the genomic epidemiology of COVID-19. Bright orange represents the U.K. variant.

At this point, his working hypothesis regarding variants of concern is that within-host evolution is occurring during prolonged infection, driven by natural selection for immune escape. Regarding genomic surveillance, and efforts toward the overall goal of informing vaccine development, Bedford asserts that another 1,000 genomes per month would be far more valuable from South America or Africa than 1,000 more genomes from the United States or the United Kingdom.

The final and much-coveted speaker slot was taken by Edward Holmes, PhD, a professor at the University of Sydney Medical School. Holmes, who has visited Wuhan several times, displayed photos that were taken at the notorious Huanan seafood market in 2014. It was, he said, a “fault line”—the kind of place where a zoonotic event could take place.

Researchers, Holmes explained, have known for years that there were a lot of coronaviruses in bats and that some were spilling into humans. In collaboration with Chinese researchers, Holmes found that bats around Wuhan, along with rodents, carry a lot of coronaviruses. And there were antibodies present in humans. At that time, he knew that the fault line was shaking.

Going forward, Holmes recommends active surveillance, both genomic and immunological, of people living and working at the human–animal interface. He also advocated open data sharing, that is, data sharing that is immediate, free, and protected from political interference. “We have to learn lessons from this,” he insisted, “and prepare for next time, now.”

Virtual events do have their benefits—increased accessibility, lower cost, and a decrease in carbon footprints. (In a recent Nature poll, 74% of scientists agreed that conferences should maintain some virtual aspects.) That said, it would be far more enjoyable to be able to write this meeting wrap-up from the beach next year. Perhaps, if Holmes’s recommendations are followed, we will be there in the flesh for AGBT 2022.

The post A Genomics Event: Missing the Sunshine but Basking in Science appeared first on GEN - Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology News.

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Analyst reviews Apple stock price target amid challenges

Here’s what could happen to Apple shares next.

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They said it was bound to happen.

It was Jan. 11, 2024 when software giant Microsoft  (MSFT)  briefly passed Apple  (AAPL)  as the most valuable company in the world.

Microsoft's stock closed 0.5% higher, giving it a market valuation of $2.859 trillion. 

It rose as much as 2% during the session and the company was briefly worth $2.903 trillion. Apple closed 0.3% lower, giving the company a market capitalization of $2.886 trillion. 

"It was inevitable that Microsoft would overtake Apple since Microsoft is growing faster and has more to benefit from the generative AI revolution," D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria said at the time, according to Reuters.

The two tech titans have jostled for top spot over the years and Microsoft was ahead at last check, with a market cap of $3.085 trillion, compared with Apple's value of $2.684 trillion.

Analysts noted that Apple had been dealing with weakening demand, including for the iPhone, the company’s main source of revenue. 

Demand in China, a major market, has slumped as the country's economy makes a slow recovery from the pandemic and competition from Huawei.

Sales in China of Apple's iPhone fell by 24% in the first six weeks of 2024 compared with a year earlier, according to research firm Counterpoint, as the company contended with stiff competition from a resurgent Huawei "while getting squeezed in the middle on aggressive pricing from the likes of OPPO, vivo and Xiaomi," said senior Analyst Mengmeng Zhang.

“Although the iPhone 15 is a great device, it has no significant upgrades from the previous version, so consumers feel fine holding on to the older-generation iPhones for now," he said.

A man scrolling through Netflix on an Apple iPad Pro. Photo by Phil Barker/Future Publishing via Getty Images.

Future Publishing/Getty Images

Big plans for China

Counterpoint said that the first six weeks of 2023 saw abnormally high numbers with significant unit sales being deferred from December 2022 due to production issues.

Apple is planning to open its eighth store in Shanghai – and its 47th across China – on March 21.

Related: Tech News Now: OpenAI says Musk contract 'never existed', Xiaomi's EV, and more

The company also plans to expand its research centre in Shanghai to support all of its product lines and open a new lab in southern tech hub Shenzhen later this year, according to the South China Morning Post.

Meanwhile, over in Europe, Apple announced changes to comply with the European Union's Digital Markets Act (DMA), which went into effect last week, Reuters reported on March 12.

Beginning this spring, software developers operating in Europe will be able to distribute apps to EU customers directly from their own websites instead of through the App Store.

"To reflect the DMA’s changes, users in the EU can install apps from alternative app marketplaces in iOS 17.4 and later," Apple said on its website, referring to the software platform that runs iPhones and iPads. 

"Users will be able to download an alternative marketplace app from the marketplace developer’s website," the company said.

Apple has also said it will appeal a $2 billion EU antitrust fine for thwarting competition from Spotify  (SPOT)  and other music streaming rivals via restrictions on the App Store.

The company's shares have suffered amid all this upheaval, but some analysts still see good things in Apple's future.

Bank of America Securities confirmed its positive stance on Apple, maintaining a buy rating with a steady price target of $225, according to Investing.com

The firm's analysis highlighted Apple's pricing strategy evolution since the introduction of the first iPhone in 2007, with initial prices set at $499 for the 4GB model and $599 for the 8GB model.

BofA said that Apple has consistently launched new iPhone models, including the Pro/Pro Max versions, to target the premium market. 

Analyst says Apple selloff 'overdone'

Concurrently, prices for previous models are typically reduced by about $100 with each new release. 

This strategy, coupled with installment plans from Apple and carriers, has contributed to the iPhone's installed base reaching a record 1.2 billion in 2023, the firm said.

More Tech Stocks:

Apple has effectively shifted its sales mix toward higher-value units despite experiencing slower unit sales, BofA said.

This trend is expected to persist and could help mitigate potential unit sales weaknesses, particularly in China. 

BofA also noted Apple's dominance in the high-end market, maintaining a market share of over 90% in the $1,000 and above price band for the past three years.

The firm also cited the anticipation of a multi-year iPhone cycle propelled by next-generation AI technology, robust services growth, and the potential for margin expansion.

On Monday, Evercore ISI analysts said they believed that the sell-off in the iPhone maker’s shares may be “overdone.”

The firm said that investors' growing preference for AI-focused stocks like Nvidia  (NVDA)  has led to a reallocation of funds away from Apple. 

In addition, Evercore said concerns over weakening demand in China, where Apple may be losing market share in the smartphone segment, have affected investor sentiment.

And then ongoing regulatory issues continue to have an impact on investor confidence in the world's second-biggest company.

“We think the sell-off is rather overdone, while we suspect there is strong valuation support at current levels to down 10%, there are three distinct drivers that could unlock upside on the stock from here – a) Cap allocation, b) AI inferencing, and c) Risk-off/defensive shift," the firm said in a research note.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Major typhoid fever surveillance study in sub-Saharan Africa indicates need for the introduction of typhoid conjugate vaccines in endemic countries

There is a high burden of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan African countries, according to a new study published today in The Lancet Global Health. This high…

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There is a high burden of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan African countries, according to a new study published today in The Lancet Global Health. This high burden combined with the threat of typhoid strains resistant to antibiotic treatment calls for stronger prevention strategies, including the use and implementation of typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs) in endemic settings along with improvements in access to safe water, sanitation, and hygiene.

Credit: IVI

There is a high burden of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan African countries, according to a new study published today in The Lancet Global Health. This high burden combined with the threat of typhoid strains resistant to antibiotic treatment calls for stronger prevention strategies, including the use and implementation of typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs) in endemic settings along with improvements in access to safe water, sanitation, and hygiene.

 

The findings from this 4-year study, the Severe Typhoid in Africa (SETA) program, offers new typhoid fever burden estimates from six countries: Burkina Faso, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Ghana, Madagascar, and Nigeria, with four countries recording more than 100 cases for every 100,000 person-years of observation, which is considered a high burden. The highest incidence of typhoid was found in DRC with 315 cases per 100,000 people while children between 2-14 years of age were shown to be at highest risk across all 25 study sites.

 

There are an estimated 12.5 to 16.3 million cases of typhoid every year with 140,000 deaths. However, with generic symptoms such as fever, fatigue, and abdominal pain, and the need for blood culture sampling to make a definitive diagnosis, it is difficult for governments to capture the true burden of typhoid in their countries.

 

“Our goal through SETA was to address these gaps in typhoid disease burden data,” said lead author Dr. Florian Marks, Deputy Director General of the International Vaccine Institute (IVI). “Our estimates indicate that introduction of TCV in endemic settings would go to lengths in protecting communities, especially school-aged children, against this potentially deadly—but preventable—disease.”

 

In addition to disease incidence, this study also showed that the emergence of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in Salmonella Typhi, the bacteria that causes typhoid fever, has led to more reliance beyond the traditional first line of antibiotic treatment. If left untreated, severe cases of the disease can lead to intestinal perforation and even death. This suggests that prevention through vaccination may play a critical role in not only protecting against typhoid fever but reducing the spread of drug-resistant strains of the bacteria.

 

There are two TCVs prequalified by the World Health Organization (WHO) and available through Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. In February 2024, IVI and SK bioscience announced that a third TCV, SKYTyphoid™, also achieved WHO PQ, paving the way for public procurement and increasing the global supply.

 

Alongside the SETA disease burden study, IVI has been working with colleagues in three African countries to show the real-world impact of TCV vaccination. These studies include a cluster-randomized trial in Agogo, Ghana and two effectiveness studies following mass vaccination in Kisantu, DRC and Imerintsiatosika, Madagascar.

 

Dr. Birkneh Tilahun Tadesse, Associate Director General at IVI and Head of the Real-World Evidence Department, explains, “Through these vaccine effectiveness studies, we aim to show the full public health value of TCV in settings that are directly impacted by a high burden of typhoid fever.” He adds, “Our final objective of course is to eliminate typhoid or to at least reduce the burden to low incidence levels, and that’s what we are attempting in Fiji with an island-wide vaccination campaign.”

 

As more countries in typhoid endemic countries, namely in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, consider TCV in national immunization programs, these data will help inform evidence-based policy decisions around typhoid prevention and control.

 

###

 

About the International Vaccine Institute (IVI)
The International Vaccine Institute (IVI) is a non-profit international organization established in 1997 at the initiative of the United Nations Development Programme with a mission to discover, develop, and deliver safe, effective, and affordable vaccines for global health.

IVI’s current portfolio includes vaccines at all stages of pre-clinical and clinical development for infectious diseases that disproportionately affect low- and middle-income countries, such as cholera, typhoid, chikungunya, shigella, salmonella, schistosomiasis, hepatitis E, HPV, COVID-19, and more. IVI developed the world’s first low-cost oral cholera vaccine, pre-qualified by the World Health Organization (WHO) and developed a new-generation typhoid conjugate vaccine that is recently pre-qualified by WHO.

IVI is headquartered in Seoul, Republic of Korea with a Europe Regional Office in Sweden, a Country Office in Austria, and Collaborating Centers in Ghana, Ethiopia, and Madagascar. 39 countries and the WHO are members of IVI, and the governments of the Republic of Korea, Sweden, India, Finland, and Thailand provide state funding. For more information, please visit https://www.ivi.int.

 

CONTACT

Aerie Em, Global Communications & Advocacy Manager
+82 2 881 1386 | aerie.em@ivi.int


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US Spent More Than Double What It Collected In February, As 2024 Deficit Is Second Highest Ever… And Debt Explodes

US Spent More Than Double What It Collected In February, As 2024 Deficit Is Second Highest Ever… And Debt Explodes

Earlier today, CNBC’s…

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US Spent More Than Double What It Collected In February, As 2024 Deficit Is Second Highest Ever... And Debt Explodes

Earlier today, CNBC's Brian Sullivan took a horse dose of Red Pills when, about six months after our readers, he learned that the US is issuing $1 trillion in debt every 100 days, which prompted him to rage tweet, (or rageX, not sure what the proper term is here) the following:

We’ve added 60% to national debt since 2018. Germany - a country with major economic woes - added ‘just’ 32%.   

Maybe it will never matter.   Maybe MMT is real.   Maybe we just cancel or inflate it out. Maybe career real estate borrowers or career politicians aren’t the answer.

I have no idea.  Only time will tell.   But it’s going to be fascinating to watch it play out.

He is right: it will be fascinating, and the latest budget deficit data simply confirmed that the day of reckoning will come very soon, certainly sooner than the two years that One River's Eric Peters predicted this weekend for the coming "US debt sustainability crisis."

According to the US Treasury, in February, the US collected $271 billion in various tax receipts, and spent $567 billion, more than double what it collected.

The two charts below show the divergence in US tax receipts which have flatlined (on a trailing 6M basis) since the covid pandemic in 2020 (with occasional stimmy-driven surges)...

... and spending which is about 50% higher compared to where it was in 2020.

The end result is that in February, the budget deficit rose to $296.3 billion, up 12.9% from a year prior, and the second highest February deficit on record.

And the punchline: on a cumulative basis, the budget deficit in fiscal 2024 which began on October 1, 2023 is now $828 billion, the second largest cumulative deficit through February on record, surpassed only by the peak covid year of 2021.

But wait there's more: because in a world where the US is spending more than twice what it is collecting, the endgame is clear: debt collapse, and while it won't be tomorrow, or the week after, it is coming... and it's also why the US is now selling $1 trillion in debt every 100 days just to keep operating (and absorbing all those millions of illegal immigrants who will keep voting democrat to preserve the socialist system of the US, so beloved by the Soros clan).

And it gets even worse, because we are now in the ponzi finance stage of the Minsky cycle, with total interest on the debt annualizing well above $1 trillion, and rising every day

... having already surpassed total US defense spending and soon to surpass total health spending and, finally all social security spending, the largest spending category of all, which means that US debt will now rise exponentially higher until the inevitable moment when the US dollar loses its reserve status and it all comes crashing down.

We conclude with another observation by CNBC's Brian Sullivan, who quotes an email by a DC strategist...

.. which lays out the proposed Biden budget as follows:

The budget deficit will growth another $16 TRILLION over next 10 years. Thats *with* the proposed massive tax hikes.

Without them the deficit will grow $19 trillion.

That's why you will hear the "deficit is being reduced by $3 trillion" over the decade.

No family budget or business could exist with this kind of math.

Of course, in the long run, neither can the US... and since neither party will ever cut the spending which everyone by now is so addicted to, the best anyone can do is start planning for the endgame.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/12/2024 - 18:40

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