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Economics

“80% Chance Of Dread”: Every Time This Happened Before, The Fed Bailed Out The Market

"80% Chance Of Dread": Every Time This Happened Before, The Fed Bailed Out The Market

With stock futures set to rebound today – at least…

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"80% Chance Of Dread": Every Time This Happened Before, The Fed Bailed Out The Market

With stock futures set to rebound today - at least until the rip sellers re-emerge on this $1.9 trillion op-ex day - absent a 3% surge, stocks are set for a 7th consecutive week of declines...

... the longest such stretch since 2001.

And while traders are fixated on what today's op-ex delivers, others are turning their attention to the furious Wednesday selloff - and subsequent Thursday drop - and what it suggests for markets and the economy.

As Bloomberg's Ven Ram writes, while economists are frantically trying to figure out the probability of a recession, stock traders are at least sensing some kind of alarm. According to the BBG Markets Live commentator, while in more “normal” times, you would expect that a 4% selloff in the S&P 500 Index to lure buyers who were earlier on the sidelines, this time around that did not happen.

Ram set up a backtest to check this out, parsing data from the start of the millennium, with the null hypothesis being that all significant declines are followed by a bounce-back, however minuscule. There have only been 40 instances when we have seen a selloff matching the threshold of a 4% -- or greater -- single-day decline. Statistically, that means if you trade stocks for a 1,000 consecutive days, you may witness such an occasion on just seven such days. (Before the global financial crisis, there were only four such instances since the start of the test period!)

Here is the interesting part: on most occasions when stocks sold off on that scale, investors bought back enough on the following day to push the S&P 500 Index into positive territory. However, that failed to happen on Thursday.

According to Ram, that is incredibly rare "and has mostly happened when the U.S. economy has faced a stern test of character: during the bursting of the dotcom bubble, the global financial crisis and the first wave of the pandemic as the table below shows."

And here an even more remarkable fact: of the 40 occasions the selloff exceed 4%, there have been only 14 instances when it hasn’t been greeted with follow-through buying (excluding this week). On only three of those occasions were the findings not coincidental to - or heralding - something being seriously amiss with the economy, "meaning traders are ascribing a near-80% chance of spotting something dreadful."
 
As Ram concludes, "clearly, Wednesday’s slump was about more than just another correction amid the Fed’s continuing interest-rate increases. If it had been, investors would have waded right back in to swoop in and benefit from what they may have perceived as beaten-down valuations." The fact that didn’t happen prompts the Bloomberg commentator to speculate that traders are probably factoring in a collapse in earnings growth that may coincide with a sharp slowdown in the economy, or worse, a recession.

There is another read of the above: on all previous "plunge and non-bounce" occasions, the Fed stepped in: to end the Great Financial Crisis, the Fed launched QE; to end the 2011 "US downgrade" rout, the Fed announced Operation Twist; to reverse the 2020 Covid Crash, the Fed went all in with trillions in QE, Repos and bond purchases.

Will it really do nothing this time and leave the market to crash, dragging both the US and global economy down with it?

Yes, the S&P cratering from here will kill deflation... it will also spark the biggest depression in U.S. history. And while it may not have crossed the minds of Biden's handlers, a second great depression may be even worse for the Democrats' approval rating than hyperinflation...

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/20/2022 - 10:44

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Economics

Global IT Consulting Sourcing and Procurement Report with Pandemic Impact Analysis, Supplier Evaluation and Price Trends | SpendEdge

Global IT Consulting Sourcing and Procurement Report with Pandemic Impact Analysis, Supplier Evaluation and Price Trends | SpendEdge
PR Newswire
NEW YORK, July 3, 2022

Over 200 Forbes 2000 companies rely on our actionable insightsMore than 100 CPOs…

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Global IT Consulting Sourcing and Procurement Report with Pandemic Impact Analysis, Supplier Evaluation and Price Trends | SpendEdge

PR Newswire

  • Over 200 Forbes 2000 companies rely on our actionable insights
  • More than 100 CPOs and 500 category managers use our insights daily
  • SpendEdge has the fastest growth rate in number of reports and client base

NEW YORK, July 3, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- The IT Consulting market size is expected to grow by USD 131.35 Billion by 2025, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 9.19% during the forecast period. To know more about this market.

Request For a Free Sample Report

IT Consulting Market Analysis

Analysis of the cost and volume drivers and supply market forecasts in various regions are offered in this IT Consulting research report. This market intelligence report also analyzes the top supply markets, market opportunities, challenges and the critical cost drivers that can aid buyers and suppliers devise a cost-effective category management strategy.

The report provides insights on the following information:

  • Regional spend dynamism and factors impacting costs
  • The total cost of ownership and cost-saving opportunities
  • Supply chain margins and pricing models
  • Competitiveness index for suppliers
  • Market favorability index for suppliers
  • Supplier and buyer KPIs

Get detailed insights on the COVID-19 pandemic crisis and recovery analysis of IT Consulting Market

www.spendedge.com/report/it-consulting-services-market-procurement-research-report

Related Reports on Professional Services Market:

Detect blind spots in your revenue decisions by analyzing interconnected unknowns around the "IT Consulting Market."

Report Metrics

Details

Base year considered

2021

Forecast period

2021 - 2025

Forecast units

USD Billion

Geographies covered

North America, South America, Europe, Middle East and Africa, and APAC

Leading IT Consulting suppliers

Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Ltd., PricewaterhouseCoopers International Ltd., and Ernst & Young Global Ltd.

Top Pricing Models

Flat-fee model, hourly rate model, and cost-plus model

This procurement report answers help buyers identify and shortlist the most suitable suppliers for their IT Consulting Market requirements following questions:

  • Am I engaging with the right suppliers?
  • Which KPIs should I use to evaluate my incumbent suppliers?
  • Which supplier selection criteria are relevant for?
  • What are the workplace computing devices category essentials in terms of SLAs and RFx?

Table of Content

  • Executive Summary
  • Market Insights
  • Category Pricing Insights
  • Cost-saving Opportunities
  • Best Practices
  • Category Ecosystem
  • Category Management Strategy
  • Category Management Enablers
  • Suppliers Selection
  • Suppliers under Coverage
  • US Market Insights
  • Category scope

Appendix

About SpendEdge:

SpendEdge shares your passion for driving sourcing and procurement excellence. We are the preferred procurement market intelligence partner for 120+ Fortune 500 firms and other leading companies across numerous industries. Our strength lies in delivering robust, real-time procurement market intelligence reports and solutions.

Contact
SpendEdge
Anirban Choudhury
Marketing Manager
Ph No: +1 (872) 206-9340 
https://www.spendedge.com/contact-us

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Spread & Containment

Visualizing A Decade Of Population Growth And Decline In US Counties

Visualizing A Decade Of Population Growth And Decline In US Counties

There are a number of factors that determine how much a region’s population…

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Visualizing A Decade Of Population Growth And Decline In US Counties

There are a number of factors that determine how much a region’s population changes.

If an area sees a high number of migrants, along with a strong birth rate and low death rate, then its population is bound to increase over time. On the flip side, as Visual Capitalists Nick Routley details below, if more people are leaving the area than coming in, and the region’s birth rate is low, then its population will likely decline.

Which areas in the United States are seeing the most growth, and which places are seeing their populations dwindle?

This map, using data from the U.S. Census Bureau, shows a decade of population movement across U.S. counties, painting a detailed picture of U.S. population growth between 2010 and 2020.

Counties With The Biggest Population Growth from 2010-2020

To calculate population estimates for each county, the U.S. Census Bureau does the following calculations:

      A county’s base population → plus births → minus deaths → plus migration = new population estimate

From 2010 to 2020, Maricopa County in Arizona saw the highest increase in its population estimate. Over a decade, the county gained 753,898 residents. Below are the counties that saw the biggest increases in population:

Phoenix and surrounding areas grew faster than any other major city in the country. The region’s sunny climate and amenities are popular with retirees, but another draw is housing affordability. Families from more expensive markets—California in particular—are moving to the city in droves. This is a trend that spilled over into the pandemic era as more people moved into remote and hybrid work situations.

Texas counties saw a lot of growth as well, with five of the top 10 gainers located in the state of Texas. A big draw for Texas is its relatively affordable housing market. In 2021, average home prices in the state stood at $172,500$53,310 below the national average.

Counties With The Biggest Population Drops from 2010-2020

On the opposite end of the spectrum, here’s a look at the top 10 counties that saw the biggest declines in their populations over the decade:

The largest drops happened in counties along the Great Lakes, including Cook County (which includes the city of Chicago) and Wayne County (which includes the city of Detroit).

For many of these counties, particularly those in America’s “Rust Belt”, population drops over this period were a continuation of decades-long trends. Wayne County is an extreme example of this trend. From 1970 to 2020, the area lost one-third of its population.

U.S. Population Growth in Percentage Terms (2010-2020)

While the map above is great at showing where the greatest number of Americans migrated, it downplays big changes in counties with smaller populations.

For example, McKenzie County in North Dakota, with a 2020 population of just 15,242, was the fastest-growing U.S. county over the past decade. The county’s 138% increase was driven primarily by the Bakken oil boom in the area. High-growth counties in Texas also grew as new sources of energy were extracted in rural areas.

The nation’s counties are evenly divided between population increase and decline, and clear patterns emerge.

Pandemic Population Changes

More recent population changes reflect longer-term trends. During the COVID-19 pandemic, many of the counties that saw the strongest population increases were located in high-growth states like Florida and Texas.

Below are the 20 counties that grew the most from 2020 to 2021.

Many of these counties are located next to large cities, reflecting a shift to the suburbs and larger living spaces. However, as COVID-19 restrictions ease, and the pandemic housing boom tapers off due to rising interest rates, it remains to be seen whether the suburban shift will continue, or if people begin to migrate back to city centers.

Tyler Durden Sat, 07/02/2022 - 21:00

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Economics

The Best Cities to Buy a Starter Home

Competition for starter homes is intense. What’s a buyer to do? Look to these cities to break into the real estate market.

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Competition for starter homes is intense. What's a buyer to do? Look to these cities to break into the real estate market.

Who wants to buy a home? A lot more people than there are homes to buy, and the outlook for first-time buyers is particularly grim.

About 26 million Americans plan to buy a home in the next 12 months, but just 5-6 million homes were sold in each of the past five years, according to a NerdWallet survey conducted in December 2021.

Millennials, aged about 26-41 years, are the largest group trying to buy homes, about 37%, according to the National Association of Realtors, and first-time buyers made up 31% of all home buyers. The supply of starter homes decreased by more than half from 2017-2021, according to an analysis by Realtor.com, which defined starters as single-family homes, condos, and townhomes under 1,850 square feet.

While median monthly asking rent in the U.S. surpassed $2,000 in May, the national median sale price topped $431,000, according to Redfin data.

And it’s not just low inventory and high prices, the competition is fierce for first-time homebuyers. Urban renters headed for the suburbs during the pandemic to compete for those entry-level homes, baby boomers looking to downsize also go after smaller properties, and to make matters worse, first-time home buyers must compete with investors who pay cash to fix and flip homes. These cash-rich flippers now make up about 10% of homebuyers

Lastly, builders have largely been unable to offset the decline in starter homes.

For the house hunter who still has the moxie to try, turn to this list of cheapest cities to buy a home. To find the cheapest places for homebuyers and the best places for starter homes, StorageCafe, an online platform that provides storage unit listings across the nation, looked at data from 108 U.S. cities with populations ranging from 90,000 to 8 million. The metrics include property values, number of sales between 2015 and 2021, housing affordability, cost of living, unemployment rate, homebuyers’ ages, the ratio of renters to owners, income levels, FHA lending limits and average mortgage rates. They scored each city on these metrics then ranked them based on their potential with regard to starter homes.

Here are the best cities for first-time homebuyers:

1. Fort Wayne, Ind.

  • Median property value: $113,144
  • Cost of living index: 87
  • Homebuyers' age: 35
  • 2021 average mortgage rate: 3.14%

The analysis used average mortgage rates from 2021, and rates have since gone up, hovering near 6% in June, but last year's rates might still give you a sense of where rates tend to be lower.

2. Columbia Md.

  • Median property value: $264,055
  • Cost of living index:106
  • Homebuyers' age: 39
  • 2021 average mortgage rate: 3.00%

3. Pittsburgh

  • Median property value: $170,042
  • Cost of living index:104
  • Homebuyers' age: 38
  • 2021 average mortgage rate: 3.03%

Shutterstock

4. Fishers, Ind.

  • Median property value: $258,679
  • Cost of living index: 92
  • Homebuyers' age: 38
  • 2021 average mortgage rate: 3.14%

5. Columbus, Ohio

  • Median property value: $164,229
  • Cost of living index: 92
  • Homebuyers' age: 39
  • 2021 average mortgage rate: 3.16%

aceshot1 / Shutterstock

6. Carmel, Ind.

  • Median property value: $244,670
  • Cost of living index: 104
  • Homebuyers' age: 40
  • 2021 average mortgage rate: 3.01%

7. St. Paul, Minn.

  • Median property value: $286,151
  • Cost of living index: 92
  • Homebuyers' age: 38
  • 2021 average mortgage rate: 3.14%

8. Cary, N.C.

  • Median property value: $308,611
  • Cost of living index: 94
  • Homebuyers' age: 43
  • 2021 average mortgage rate: 3.02%

9. Manchester, N.H.

  • Median property value: $276,257
  • Cost of living index: 111
  • Homebuyers' age: 40
  • 2021 average mortgage rate: 3.03%

10. Minneapolis

  • Median property value: $288,926
  • Cost of living index: 105
  • Homebuyers' age: 40
  • 2021 average mortgage rate: 3.01%

11. Nashville, Tenn.

  • Median property value: $318,046
  • Cost of living index: 93
  • Homebuyers' age: 39
  • 2021 average mortgage rate: 3.02%

f11photo / Shutterstock

12. Bakersfield, Calif.

  • Median property value: $216,063
  • Cost of living index: 102
  • Homebuyers' age: 40
  • 2021 average mortgage rate: 3.04%

13. Arvada, Colo.

  • Median property value: $476,672
  • Cost of living index: 114
  • Homebuyers' age: 39
  • 2021 average mortgage rate: 3.00%

14. Alexandria, Va.

  • Median property value: $432,703
  • Cost of living index: 137
  • Homebuyers' age: 40
  • 2021 average mortgage rate: 2.99%

Shutterstock

15. Centennial, Colo.

  • Median property value: $444,747
  • Cost of living index: 114
  • Homebuyers' age: 39
  • 2021 average mortgage rate: 3.00%

16. Denver

  • Median property value: $505,777
  • Cost of living index: 113
  • Homebuyers' age: 39
  • 2021 average mortgage rate: 3.00%

17. Raleigh, N.C.

  • Median property value: $279,304
  • Cost of living index: 94
  • Homebuyers' age: 43
  • 2021 average mortgage rate: 3.02%

18. Germantown, Md.

  • Median property value: $261,511
  • Cost of living index: 157
  • Homebuyers' age: 39
  • 2021 average mortgage rate: 3.00%

19. St. Petersburg, Fla.

  • Median property value: $283,684
  • Cost of living index: 96
  • Homebuyers' age: 53
  • 2021 average mortgage rate: 3.11%

20. Lakewood, Colo.

  • Median property value: $380,165
  • Cost of living index: 114
  • Homebuyers' age: 39
  • 2021 average mortgage rate: 3.00%

21. Aurora, Colo.

  • Median property value: $360,542
  • Cost of living index: 114
  • Homebuyers' age: 39
  • 2021 average mortgage rate: 3.00%

22. Boca Raton, Fla.

  • Median property value: $280,104
  • Cost of living index: 116
  • Homebuyers' age: 51
  • 2021 average mortgage rate: 3.11%

23. Modesto, Calif.

  • Median property value: $319,328
  • Cost of living index: 119
  • Homebuyers' age: 39
  • 2021 average mortgage rate: 3.04%

Shutterstock

24. Chandler, Ariz.

  • Median property value: $388,450
  • Cost of living index: 103
  • Homebuyers' age: 51
  • 2021 average mortgage rate: 3.12%

Shutterstock

25. Las Vegas

  • Median property value: $265,170
  • Cost of living index: 107
  • Homebuyers' age: 50
  • 2021 average mortgage rate: 3.11%

26. Washington, D.C.

  • Median property value: $623,135
  • Cost of living index: 157
  • Homebuyers' age: 40
  • 2021 average mortgage rate: 4.90%

27. Scottsdale, Ariz.

  • Median property value: $478,609
  • Cost of living index: 103
  • Homebuyers' age: 51
  • 2021 average mortgage rate: 3.12%

28. Spokane, Wash.

  • Median property value: $300,881
  • Cost of living index: 107
  • Homebuyers' age: 44
  • 2021 average mortgage rate: 3.06%

29. Peoria, Ariz.

  • Median property value: $373,588
  • Cost of living index: 103
  • Homebuyers' age: 51
  • 2021 average mortgage rate: 3.12%

30. Gilbert, Ariz.

  • Median property value: $409,324
  • Cost of living index: 103
  • Homebuyers' age: 51
  • 2021 average mortgage rate: 3.12%

31. Portland, Ore.

  • Median property value: $484,475
  • Cost of living index: 132
  • Homebuyers' age: 44
  • 2021 average mortgage rate: 3.08%

Check out how all 108 cities ranked and see the methodology for this study at StorageCafe.com

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