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5 things to watch in Bitcoin this week as greed and leverage get ‘flushed out’

Bitcoin begins the new week above $50,000 after a relatively boring weekend.
Bitcoin (BTC) is keeping bulls and bears guessing as it opens a new weekly candle in the green, heading away from $50,000.After an uneventful but uninspiring

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Bitcoin begins the new week above $50,000 after a relatively boring weekend.

Bitcoin (BTC) is keeping bulls and bears guessing as it opens a new weekly candle in the green, heading away from $50,000.

After an uneventful but uninspiring weekend, BTC/USD has begun Monday by reclaiming $53,000 for the first time since Thursday. What could lie in store?

Cointelegraph takes a look at five factors that could shape BTC price action in the coming days.

BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Stocks steady but dollar dives

Stocks are once again cool this week as the macro picture presents a familiar mixture of hope and misery driven by the coronavirus.

While Asian markets had an uneventful day on the whole, India’s virus problems and Turkey’s financial woes were cause for concern.

Separately, with the United States set to send tourists to the European Union this summer, fresh economic incentives for traders are beginning to take shape.

With no overall direction, however, the impetus for Bitcoin to track a macro narrative is barely existent — and the day’s price movements are already proving it.

“What does the future hodl?” Tesla and SpaceX “Technoking” Elon Musk summarized on Saturday in a tweet that will be poignant for many a market participant. Tesla, one of the big-name BTC investors, is due to report on earnings after the Wall Street close.

When it comes to the dollar, the opportunity for Bitcoin is more skewed to the upside — the U.S. dollar currency index (DXY) is continuing its decline after closing below 91 on Friday. As Cointelegraph often reports, the index, particularly over the past year, tends to be negatively correlated with BTC/USD.

BTC regains $53,000 mark

Bitcoin spot price action is already offering surprises, and unlike last week, it’s the bears who are being caught unaware.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView reveals BTC/USD rising to hit $53,000 for the first time since losing the same level on its way down last week.

The level itself is significant, equalling a Bitcoin market cap of $1 trillion and thus previously forming a line in the sand that analysts thought would hold.

In the event, it was $46,000 that provided the floor, but as yet, there is no firm belief that the latest price dip is over. This is evidenced in trading positions, as the move up to $53,000 liquidated shorts to the tune of $150 million in an hour.

“Looks like this interim sell-off might be reaching its conclusion,” podcast host Preston Pysh suspected late on Sunday.

The scope of the dip was a shock to some investors, coming despite hordes of new buyers entering the network. On-chain metrics as a whole have remained in the green, lending further weight to the theory that current circumstances are a temporary blip in an otherwise enduring bull market.

“Market is very emotional over 2%+/- Swings on closes,” Filbfilb, co-founder of trading suite DecenTrader, told Telegram subscribers last week.

“Take note, volatility will be inbound soon. I’m quite bullish but think we need a bit more of a shake before up. Could be wrong... about the direction, but not so much about the volatility so buckle up.”

Difficulty set for biggest retrace since November

In fundamentals, miners continue to recover from a Chinese power outage that truncated the network’s hash rate overnight earlier in April.

As a result of flooding, as before in Bitcoin’s life, large segments of China’s mining power disappeared from the network, leading to a drop in hash rate, which at one point neared 25% of all-time highs.

Since then, miners have begun adapting, while a drop in mining difficulty will allow smaller operators to mine more profitably and provide an incentive for maintaining network security.

This drop, set to occur in around five days’ time, will be the largest negative move since Nov. 3, when BTC/USD was still at $13,000.

7-day average Bitcoin hash rate. Source: Blockchain.com

Difficulty adjustments form an essential, if not the most essential, part of Bitcoin’s ability to maintain itself regardless of external factors influencing its modus operandi.

Recent months have been characterized by upticks in difficulty, which together with the hash rate has seen consistent new all-time highs. Should history continue to repeat itself, price action should also revert to gains in line with their recovery.

Commenting on recent events, Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, cautioned observers on their choice of statistics resource and argued that the drop had not in fact been as large as some suggested.

“Bitcoin hashrate back at 157 EH about 5% below 168 EH peak. Mostly recovered from 25% down at 125 EH,” he tweeted on Sunday.

Sentiment tends toward “extreme fear”

Along with shorts and overleveraged longs alike, it seems that irrational sentiment in crypto has finally been shaken out.

That’s the conclusion of the popular Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which uses a basket of factors to determine trader sentiment and, therefore, what’s likely to occur on BTC/USD as a result of their actions.

Previously, as new all-time highs of $65,000 appeared, Fear & Greed was nearing historic record highs in line with the tops of bull markets past.

At nearly 80/100, a sell-off was clearly on the cards as per the metric, which took around a week to react to the price dip down to $46,000.

Now, however, the pressure is off, and the index has gone from “extreme greed” to “fear” — effectively a “reset” of sentiment, which provides scope for further price gains.

Analyst highlights price dip “silver lining”

It’s not just private individuals who have undergone a serious mood change. According to other metrics, erratic behavior from professional traders has also been effectively cleansed from the market.

In his latest update for Morgan Creek Digital co-founder Anthony Pompliano’s market newsletter on Friday, analyst William Clemente noted that longs had once again become an attractive bet.

“There was some silver lining to this event, greed and leverage was flushed out,” he wrote.

“In addition to the liquidations, this can be illustrated by funding rates. To peg the perpetual swap contract to Bitcoin spot price, funding rates are used. When the majority of traders go long, it becomes profitable to go short, and vice versa. During the event, funding rates flipped negative, meaning it became profitable for traders to take the long side of the trade. This has shown to be a buy signal in the previous two times this happened during this bull market.”

Also approaching a “full reset” is the spent output profit ratio (SOPR), a metric, which Cointelegraph previously noted, tends to dictate local market bottoms.

“Currently, SOPR is approaching the full reset mark, meaning price has either reached, or is very closing to reaching, the bottom of the current correction,” Clemente added.

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Shipping company files surprise Chapter 7 bankruptcy, liquidation

While demand for trucking has increased, so have costs and competition, which have forced a number of players to close.

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The U.S. economy is built on trucks.

As a nation we have relatively limited train assets, and while in recent years planes have played an expanded role in moving goods, trucks still represent the backbone of how everything — food, gasoline, commodities, and pretty much anything else — moves around the country.

Related: Fast-food chain closes more stores after Chapter 11 bankruptcy

"Trucks moved 61.1% of the tonnage and 64.9% of the value of these shipments. The average shipment by truck was 63 miles compared to an average of 640 miles by rail," according to the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics 2023 numbers.

But running a trucking company has been tricky because the largest players have economies of scale that smaller operators don't. That puts any trucking company that's not a massive player very sensitive to increases in gas prices or drops in freight rates.

And that in turn has led a number of trucking companies, including Yellow Freight, the third-largest less-than-truckload operator; J.J. & Sons Logistics, Meadow Lark, and Boateng Logistics, to close while freight brokerage Convoy shut down in October.

Aside from Convoy, none of these brands are household names. but with the demand for trucking increasing, every company that goes out of business puts more pressure on those that remain, which contributes to increased prices.

Demand for trucking has continued to increase.

Image source: Shutterstock

Another freight company closes and plans to liquidate

Not every bankruptcy filing explains why a company has gone out of business. In the trucking industry, multiple recent Chapter 7 bankruptcies have been tied to lawsuits that pushed otherwise successful companies into insolvency.

In the case of TBL Logistics, a Virginia-based national freight company, its Feb. 29 bankruptcy filing in U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Western District of Virginia appears to be death by too much debt.

"In its filing, TBL Logistics listed its assets and liabilities as between $1 million and $10 million. The company stated that it has up to 49 creditors and maintains that no funds will be available for unsecured creditors once it pays administrative fees," Freightwaves reported.

The company's owners, Christopher and Melinda Bradner, did not respond to the website's request for comment.

Before it closed, TBL Logistics specialized in refrigerated and oversized loads. The company described its business on its website.

"TBL Logistics is a non-asset-based third-party logistics freight broker company providing reliable and efficient transportation solutions, management, and storage for businesses of all sizes. With our extensive network of carriers and industry expertise, we streamline the shipping process, ensuring your goods reach their destination safely and on time."

The world has a truck-driver shortage

The covid pandemic forced companies to consider their supply chain in ways they never had to before. Increased demand showed the weakness in the trucking industry and drew attention to how difficult life for truck drivers can be.

That was an issue HBO's John Oliver highlighted on his "Last Week Tonight" show in October 2022. In the episode, the host suggested that the U.S. would basically start to starve if the trucking industry shut down for three days.

"Sorry, three days, every produce department in America would go from a fully stocked market to an all-you-can-eat raccoon buffet," he said. "So it’s no wonder trucking’s a huge industry, with more than 3.5 million people in America working as drivers, from port truckers who bring goods off ships to railyards and warehouses, to long-haul truckers who move them across the country, to 'last-mile' drivers, who take care of local delivery." 

The show highlighted how many truck drivers face low pay, difficult working conditions and, in many cases, crushing debt.

"Hundreds of thousands of people become truck drivers every year. But hundreds of thousands also quit. Job turnover for truckers averages over 100%, and at some companies it’s as high as 300%, meaning they’re hiring three people for a single job over the course of a year. And when a field this important has a level of job satisfaction that low, it sure seems like there’s a huge problem," Oliver shared.

The truck-driver shortage is not just a U.S. problem; it's a global issue, according to IRU.org.

"IRU’s 2023 driver shortage report has found that over three million truck driver jobs are unfilled, or 7% of total positions, in 36 countries studied," the global transportation trade association reported. 

"With the huge gap between young and old drivers growing, it will get much worse over the next five years without significant action."

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Wendy’s has a new deal for daylight savings time haters

The Daylight Savings Time promotion slashes prices on breakfast.

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Daylight Savings Time, or the practice of advancing clocks an hour in the spring to maximize natural daylight, is a controversial practice because of the way it leaves many feeling off-sync and tired on the second Sunday in March when the change is made and one has one less hour to sleep in.

Despite annual "Abolish Daylight Savings Time" think pieces and online arguments that crop up with unwavering regularity, Daylight Savings in North America begins on March 10 this year.

Related: Coca-Cola has a new soda for Diet Coke fans

Tapping into some people's very vocal dislike of Daylight Savings Time, fast-food chain Wendy's  (WEN)  is launching a daylight savings promotion that is jokingly designed to make losing an hour of sleep less painful and encourage fans to order breakfast anyway.

Wendy's has recently made a big push to expand its breakfast menu.

Image source: Wendy's.

Promotion wants you to compensate for lost sleep with cheaper breakfast

As it is also meant to drive traffic to the Wendy's app, the promotion allows anyone who makes a purchase of $3 or more through the platform to get a free hot coffee, cold coffee or Frosty Cream Cold Brew.

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Available during the Wendy's breakfast hours of 6 a.m. and 10:30 a.m. (which, naturally, will feel even earlier due to Daylight Savings), the deal also allows customers to buy any of its breakfast sandwiches for $3. Items like the Sausage, Egg and Cheese Biscuit, Breakfast Baconator and Maple Bacon Chicken Croissant normally range in price between $4.50 and $7.

The choice of the latter is quite wide since, in the years following the pandemic, Wendy's has made a concerted effort to expand its breakfast menu with a range of new sandwiches with egg in them and sweet items such as the French Toast Sticks. The goal was both to stand out from competitors with a wider breakfast menu and increase traffic to its stores during early-morning hours.

Wendy's deal comes after controversy over 'dynamic pricing'

But last month, the chain known for the square shape of its burger patties ignited controversy after saying that it wanted to introduce "dynamic pricing" in which the cost of many of the items on its menu will vary depending on the time of day. In an earnings call, chief executive Kirk Tanner said that electronic billboards would allow restaurants to display various deals and promotions during slower times in the early morning and late at night.

Outcry was swift and Wendy's ended up walking back its plans with words that they were "misconstrued" as an intent to surge prices during its most popular periods.

While the company issued a statement saying that any changes were meant as "discounts and value offers" during quiet periods rather than raised prices during busy ones, the reputational damage was already done since many saw the clarification as another way to obfuscate its pricing model.

"We said these menuboards would give us more flexibility to change the display of featured items," Wendy's said in its statement. "This was misconstrued in some media reports as an intent to raise prices when demand is highest at our restaurants."

The Daylight Savings Time promotion, in turn, is also a way to demonstrate the kinds of deals Wendy's wants to promote in its stores without putting up full-sized advertising or posters for what is only relevant for a few days.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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International

United Airlines adds new flights to faraway destinations

The airline said that it has been working hard to "find hidden gem destinations."

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Since countries started opening up after the pandemic in 2021 and 2022, airlines have been seeing demand soar not just for major global cities and popular routes but also for farther-away destinations.

Numerous reports, including a recent TripAdvisor survey of trending destinations, showed that there has been a rise in U.S. traveler interest in Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea and Vietnam as well as growing tourism traction in off-the-beaten-path European countries such as Slovenia, Estonia and Montenegro.

Related: 'No more flying for you': Travel agency sounds alarm over risk of 'carbon passports'

As a result, airlines have been looking at their networks to include more faraway destinations as well as smaller cities that are growing increasingly popular with tourists and may not be served by their competitors.

The Philippines has been popular among tourists in recent years.

Shutterstock

United brings back more routes, says it is committed to 'finding hidden gems'

This week, United Airlines  (UAL)  announced that it will be launching a new route from Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) to Morocco's Marrakesh. While it is only the country's fourth-largest city, Marrakesh is a particularly popular place for tourists to seek out the sights and experiences that many associate with the country — colorful souks, gardens with ornate architecture and mosques from the Moorish period.

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"We have consistently been ahead of the curve in finding hidden gem destinations for our customers to explore and remain committed to providing the most unique slate of travel options for their adventures abroad," United's SVP of Global Network Planning Patrick Quayle, said in a press statement.

The new route will launch on Oct. 24 and take place three times a week on a Boeing 767-300ER  (BA)  plane that is equipped with 46 Polaris business class and 22 Premium Plus seats. The plane choice was a way to reach a luxury customer customer looking to start their holiday in Marrakesh in the plane.

Along with the new Morocco route, United is also launching a flight between Houston (IAH) and Colombia's Medellín on Oct. 27 as well as a route between Tokyo and Cebu in the Philippines on July 31 — the latter is known as a "fifth freedom" flight in which the airline flies to the larger hub from the mainland U.S. and then goes on to smaller Asian city popular with tourists after some travelers get off (and others get on) in Tokyo.

United's network expansion includes new 'fifth freedom' flight

In the fall of 2023, United became the first U.S. airline to fly to the Philippines with a new Manila-San Francisco flight. It has expanded its service to Asia from different U.S. cities earlier last year. Cebu has been on its radar amid growing tourist interest in the region known for marine parks, rainforests and Spanish-style architecture.

With the summer coming up, United also announced that it plans to run its current flights to Hong Kong, Seoul, and Portugal's Porto more frequently at different points of the week and reach four weekly flights between Los Angeles and Shanghai by August 29.

"This is your normal, exciting network planning team back in action," Quayle told travel website The Points Guy of the airline's plans for the new routes.

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