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3 Hot Insider Stock Picks You Need to Know

3 Hot Insider Stock Picks You Need to Know

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The S&P 500 has gained nearly 11% so far this month, and this rally is truly what seems to be – a bullish rally in the midst of a larger bear market.

And this, of course, brings us to the main issue that investors must answer now: where to put their money. Markets bottomed on March 23, almost four weeks ago, and that trough brought many stocks down to an attractive point of entry. The current rally has not pushed them back high enough to erase that; the current price plateau offers latecomers a chance to buy into the rally while prices are still attractively low.

So how to recognize the most compelling buying opportunities?

One way is to follow the insiders. The word may have an unsavory flavor, especially after recent allegations that several Senators made ‘inside trades’ just as the coronavirus lockdowns started. But in reality, insiders are just corporate officers and Board members, the men and women responsible to shareholders for running America’s publicly traded corporations – and who also, by virtue of their positions, have access to earlier and better knowledge of the factors that will move stock values. They do trade on that knowledge – and to help keep the playing field level, they are required to make their inside stock moves public. Following their purchases is a viable strategy for finding potentially profitable stock plays.

TipRanks has the tools to help you do just that. The Insiders’ Hot Stocks page shows which stocks top insiders are most active on, for both purchases and sales. You can sort insider trades by a variety of filters, including trading strategy. We’ve done some of the legwork for you, and pulled up three stocks with recent informative buy-side transactions. Here are the results.

Fortress Transportation and Infrastructure (FTAI)

The first company on our list today, Fortress Transportation, resembles REITs. Fortress buys, owns, and manages properties in the transportation industry, especially in the infrastructure segment. Where it deviates from the usual REIT format is in its other assets: Fortress also owns and operates the actual equipment in the transport niche, equipment like shipping containers, offshore drilling ships, and commercial jet aircraft. That last, commercial aircraft, makes up over 61% of the company’s asset portfolio. Fortress generates its profits through leases on its owned assets.

On the insider front, three informative purchases have swung sentiment on this stock strongly positive. Two were made by members of the Board of Directors; the smaller, by Kenneth Nicholson, for $215,700, and the larger, by Paul Goodwin, for $435,880. The truly huge purchase, however, was made by a 10% owner in the company – an institutional investor, the Washington State Investment Board, which laid down $19.9 million for a 2.353 million shares. The magnitude of these purchases are clear indicators of confidence in the stock.

As last year ended, FTAI finished with strong quarterly earnings. The 12 cents reported were 71% above the forecast, it was the third consecutive quarter to beat the forecast. Better yet, for investors, Fortress reported that, as of the end of 2019, 80% of its aviation equipment assets were leased out – and that the average remaining lease term was 29 months. This puts the company in a strong position to weather the coronavirus storm, as it guarantees income from half of the company’s assets for another two years.

In addition to a solid fiscal footing, FTAI offers a 33-cent quarterly dividend. At $1.32, the annualized payment gives the stock a yield of 14.4%, more than enough to attract investors now that the Fed has cut rates back to near-zero, and made sweeter by a 5-year reliable payment history.

Stephens analyst Justin Long is also confident in FTAI. He notes the stock’s high dividend, as well as its advantageous debt position, despite a heavy recent sell-off. At the bottom line, he writes, “We feel like the damage has been done with a draconian scenario being priced-in. We would also note FTAI is relatively well positioned in the aviation leasing industry with total debt to cap under 50% and no debt maturities until 2022... We also believe the infrastructure assets should drive substantial cash flow over the long term with FTAI continuing to opportunistically assess opportunities to monetize these assets…”

Long puts a Buy on this FTAI shares, and his $22 price target implies a powerful upside potential of 125%, another attractive feature to go along with the high-yield dividend. (To watch Long’s track record, click here)

Fortress has a Strong Buy rating from the analyst consensus, with 6 Buys outweighing a single Hold. The shares sell for $9.77, and the $21.43 average price target suggests that there is room for an impressive 118% upside growth in the coming 12 months. (See Fortress stock analysis at TipRanks)

Stich Fix, Inc. (SFIX)

Now here is an interesting niche; this small-cap company works to personalize online clothing shopping. The company’s platform allows customers to make stylistic preferences – and then receive periodic packages of clothing, selected by the company’s stylists. Once received, customers can choose to keep or return some or all of the clothes choices. It’s a unique take on eCommerce, combining data science, machine learning, and a personal touch to predict what customers will enjoy most.

Looking ahead, the company is expected to post a 15-cent per share loss in fiscal Q3, for the period in this month – and covering, in large part, the economic shutdown due to the COVID-19 epidemic.

But despite the tough path forward, two company directors have made multi-million dollar purchases in recent days. William Gurley spent $15.8 million on a 1 million share purchase this past Monday; Steven Spurlock spent $16.6 million on 1.05 million shares the same day. The two buys swung the sentiment need sharply into positive territory, and also show that both shareholders are willing to take advantage of current low prices to expand their holdings.

Youssef Squali, 5-star analyst with SunTrust Robinson, explains why this may be a good idea. Acknowledging that the company has sharply pulled back its Q3 and full year guidance due to the commercial disruptions of COVID-19, Squali also says, “While we recognize that demand trends are likely to worsen in 2Q and possibly 3Q before they start getting better in 4Q (our estimate), we believe that shareholders with a longer-term horizon will be rewarded given the company's strong competitive positioning and sustainable business model…”

For that long term, Squali sees a fit to place $27 price target, implying 80% growth for the stock. In line with this, he maintains his Buy rating. (To watch Squali’s track record, click here)

The Moderate Buy analyst consensus view on this stock is backed by a near-even split of 8 Buys and 6 Holds. The $19.31 average price target indicates a 23% premium from the $15.70 current trading price of the shares. (See Stitch Fix stock analysis at TipRanks)

Public Storage (PSA)

Public Storage is well known for its chain of self-storage facilities across the US. In organization, PSA is a real estate investment trust, owning the properties and deriving income from leases and management fees.

In recent days, three company Board members – Avedick Baruyr, Wayne Hughes, and Gary Pruitt – each purchased a block of 5,000 shares, for the price of $471,250. The purchases show clear confidence in the stock. These purchases bring the insider buys of the past three months to well over $1.5 million dollars.

Public Storage came into 2020 with rising earnings, although results were just below the forecasts. Finishing calendar year 2019, PSA showed $2.84 in Q4 funds from operations, along with $598 million in total quarterly revenues. For the full year, FFO was $10.75, up 1.8% yoy, and revenue came in at $2.4 billion, up 1.4% from 2018. The numbers give the company a firm foundation, which it found it needed to face the dislocations in today’s economic landscape. Looking forward, PSA will be reporting first quarter results at the end of the month, and is expected to show $2.58 in FFO – a sequential decline of 9.2%.

In a bright spot, however, PSA is maintaining its dividend. The company has made the payments reliably for the last 11 years – an admirable record – and the current payment is $2 per share quarterly. This gives a payout ratio of 70%, indicating that the dividend is affordable at current income levels – and will likely stay affordable, even if FFO slips this year. The annualized payment of $8 per share makes the dividend yield 4.1%; not huge, but still double the average among S&P listed companies.

Turning to Wall Street’s view of the stock, we find that Merrill Lynch analyst Jeffrey Spector has recently upgraded his stance on PSA. Spector bumped his outlook from Neutral to Buy, and raised his price target to $267, suggesting a robust 36% upside. (To watch Spector’s track record, click here)

Backing his view, Spector wrote, “PSA remains well positioned in our view, with minimal debt coming due in 2020 and ~$400M cash on hand as of 4Q… PSA [has] ample liquidity to take advantage of acquisition opportunities that arise.”

Overall, PSA shares are still rated a "hold" by Wall Street’s analyst corps, based on an even 3-way split: 3 Buys, 3 Holds, and 3 Sells. The stock sells for $196.48 – and the average price target of $208.78 suggests only 6% upside. (See Public Storage stock analysis on TipRanks)

To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.

The post 3 Hot Insider Stock Picks You Need to Know appeared first on TipRanks Financial Blog.

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Home buyers must now navigate higher mortgage rates and prices

Rates under 4% came and went during the Covid pandemic, but home prices soared. Here’s what buyers and sellers face as the housing season ramps up.

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Springtime is spreading across the country. You can see it as daffodil, camellia, tulip and other blossoms start to emerge. 

You can also see it in the increasing number of for sale signs popping up in front of homes, along with the painting, gardening and general sprucing up as buyers get ready to sell. 

Which leads to two questions: 

  • How is the real estate market this spring? 
  • Where are mortgage rates? 

What buyers and sellers face

The housing market is bedeviled with supply shortages, high prices and slow sales.

Mortgage rates are still high and may limit what a buyer can offer and a seller can expect.  

Related: Analyst warns that a TikTok ban could lead to major trouble for Apple, Big Tech

And there's a factor not expected that may affect the sales process. Fixed commission rates on home sales are going away in July.

Reports this week and in a week will make the situation clearer for buyers and sellers. 

The reports are:

  • Housing starts from the U.S. Commerce Department due Tuesday. The consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted rate of about 1.4 million homes. These would include apartments, both rentals and condominiums. 
  • Existing home sales, due Thursday from the National Association of Realtors. The consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted sales rate of about 4 million homes. In 2023, some 4.1 million homes were sold, the worst sales rate since 1995. 
  • New-home sales and prices, due Monday from the Commerce Department. Analysts are expecting a sales rate of 661,000 homes (including condos), up 1.5% from a year ago.

Here is what buyers and sellers need to know about the situation. 

Mortgage rates will stay above 5% 

That's what most analysts believe. Right now, the rate on a 30-year mortgage is between 6.7% and 7%. 

Rates peaked at 8% in October after the Federal Reserve signaled it was done raising interest rates.

The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey of March 14 was at 6.74%. 

Freddie Mac buys mortgages from lenders and sells securities to investors. The effect is to replenish lenders' cash levels to make more loans. 

A hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index released that day has pushed quotes to 7% or higher, according to data from Mortgage News Daily, which tracks mortgage markets.

Home buyers must navigate higher mortgage rates and prices this spring.

TheStreet

On a median-priced home (price: $380,000) and a 20% down payment, that means a principal and interest rate payment of $2,022. The payment  does not include taxes and insurance.

Last fall when the 30-year rate hit 8%, the payment would have been $2,230. 

In 2021, the average rate was 2.96%, which translated into a payment of $1,275. 

Short of a depression, that's a rate that won't happen in most of our lifetimes. 

Most economists believe current rates will fall to around 6.3% by the end of the year, maybe lower, depending on how many times the Federal Reserve cuts rates this year. 

If 6%, the payment on our median-priced home is $1,823.

But under 5%, absent a nasty recession, fuhgettaboutit.

Supply will be tight, keeping prices up

Two factors are affecting the supply of homes for sale in just about every market.

First: Homeowners who had been able to land a mortgage at 2.96% are very reluctant to sell because they would then have to find a home they could afford with, probably, a higher-cost mortgage.

More economic news:

Second, the combination of high prices and high mortgage rates are freezing out thousands of potential buyers, especially those looking for homes in lower price ranges.

Indeed, The Wall Street Journal noted that online brokerage Redfin said only about 20% of homes for sale in February were affordable for the typical household.

And here mortgage rates can play one last nasty trick. If rates fall, that means a buyer can afford to pay more. Sellers and their real-estate agents know this too, and may ask for a higher price. 

Covid's last laugh: An inflation surge

Mortgage rates jumped to 8% or higher because since 2022 the Federal Reserve has been fighting to knock inflation down to 2% a year. Raising interest rates was the ammunition to battle rising prices.

In June 2022, the consumer price index was 9.1% higher than a year earlier. 

The causes of the worst inflation since the 1970s were: 

  • Covid-19 pandemic, which caused the global economy to shut down in 2020. When Covid ebbed and people got back to living their lives, getting global supply chains back to normal operation proved difficult. 
  • Oil prices jumped to record levels because of the recovery from the pandemic recovery and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

What the changes in commissions means

The long-standing practice of paying real-estate agents will be retired this summer, after the National Association of Realtors settled a long and bitter legal fight.

No longer will the seller necessarily pay 6% of the sale price to split between buyer and seller agents.

Both sellers and buyers will have to negotiate separately the services agents have charged for 100 years or more. These include pre-screening properties, writing sales contracts, and the like. The change will continue a trend of adding costs and complications to the process of buying or selling a home.

Already, interest rates are a complication. In addition, homeowners insurance has become very pricey, especially in communities vulnerable to hurricanes, tornadoes, and forest fires. Florida homeowners have seen premiums jump more than 102% in the last three years. A policy now costs three times more than the national average.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

 

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Default: San Francisco Four Seasons Hotel Investors $3 Million Late On Loan As Foreclosure Looms

Default: San Francisco Four Seasons Hotel Investors $3 Million Late On Loan As Foreclosure Looms

Westbrook Partners, which acquired the San…

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Default: San Francisco Four Seasons Hotel Investors $3 Million Late On Loan As Foreclosure Looms

Westbrook Partners, which acquired the San Francisco Four Seasons luxury hotel building, has been served a notice of default, as the developer has failed to make its monthly loan payment since December, and is currently behind by more than $3 million, the San Francisco Business Times reports.

Westbrook, which acquired the property at 345 California Center in 2019, has 90 days to bring their account current with its lender or face foreclosure.

Related

As SF Gate notes, downtown San Francisco hotel investors have had a terrible few years - with interest rates higher than their pre-pandemic levels, and local tourism continuing to suffer thanks to the city's legendary mismanagement that has resulted in overlapping drug, crime, and homelessness crises (which SF Gate characterizes as "a negative media narrative).

Last summer, the owner of San Francisco’s Hilton Union Square and Parc 55 hotels abandoned its loan in the first major default. Industry insiders speculate that loan defaults like this may become more common given the difficult period for investors.

At a visitor impact summit in August, a senior director of hospitality analytics for the CoStar Group reported that there are 22 active commercial mortgage-backed securities loans for hotels in San Francisco maturing in the next two years. Of these hotel loans, 17 are on CoStar’s “watchlist,” as they are at a higher risk of default, the analyst said. -SF Gate

The 155-room Four Seasons San Francisco at Embarcadero currenly occupies the top 11 floors of the iconic skyscrper. After slow renovations, the hotel officially reopened in the summer of 2021.

"Regarding the landscape of the hotel community in San Francisco, the short term is a challenging situation due to high interest rates, fewer guests compared to pre-pandemic and the relatively high costs attached with doing business here," Alex Bastian, President and CEO of the Hotel Council of San Francisco, told SFGATE.

Heightened Risks

In January, the owner of the Hilton Financial District at 750 Kearny St. - Portsmouth Square's affiliate Justice Operating Company - defaulted on the property, which had a $97 million loan on the 544-room hotel taken out in 2013. The company says it proposed a loan modification agreement which was under review by the servicer, LNR Partners.

Meanwhile last year Park Hotels & Resorts gave up ownership of two properties, Parc 55 and Hilton Union Square - which were transferred to a receiver that assumed management.

In the third quarter of 2023, the most recent data available, the Hilton Financial District reported $11.1 million in revenue, down from $12.3 million from the third quarter of 2022. The hotel had a net operating loss of $1.56 million in the most recent third quarter.

Occupancy fell to 88% with an average daily rate of $218 in the third quarter compared with 94% and $230 in the same period of 2022. -SF Chronicle

According to the Chronicle, San Francisco's 2024 convention calendar is lighter than it was last year - in part due to key events leaving the city for cheaper, less crime-ridden places like Las Vegas

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/17/2024 - 18:05

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Mistakes Were Made

Mistakes Were Made

Authored by C.J.Hopkins via The Consent Factory,

Make fun of the Germans all you want, and I’ve certainly done that…

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Mistakes Were Made

Authored by C.J.Hopkins via The Consent Factory,

Make fun of the Germans all you want, and I’ve certainly done that a bit during these past few years, but, if there’s one thing they’re exceptionally good at, it’s taking responsibility for their mistakes. Seriously, when it comes to acknowledging one’s mistakes, and not rationalizing, or minimizing, or attempting to deny them, and any discomfort they may have allegedly caused, no one does it quite like the Germans.

Take this Covid mess, for example. Just last week, the German authorities confessed that they made a few minor mistakes during their management of the “Covid pandemic.” According to Karl Lauterbach, the Minister of Health, “we were sometimes too strict with the children and probably started easing the restrictions a little too late.” Horst Seehofer, the former Interior Minister, admitted that he would no longer agree to some of the Covid restrictions today, for example, nationwide nighttime curfews. “One must be very careful with calls for compulsory vaccination,” he added. Helge Braun, Head of the Chancellery and Minister for Special Affairs under Merkel, agreed that there had been “misjudgments,” for example, “overestimating the effectiveness of the vaccines.”

This display of the German authorities’ unwavering commitment to transparency and honesty, and the principle of personal honor that guides the German authorities in all their affairs, and that is deeply ingrained in the German character, was published in a piece called “The Divisive Virus” in Der Spiegel, and immediately widely disseminated by the rest of the German state and corporate media in a totally organic manner which did not in any way resemble one enormous Goebbelsian keyboard instrument pumping out official propaganda in perfect synchronization, or anything creepy and fascistic like that.

Germany, after all, is “an extremely democratic state,” with freedom of speech and the press and all that, not some kind of totalitarian country where the masses are inundated with official propaganda and critics of the government are dragged into criminal court and prosecuted on trumped-up “hate crime” charges.

OK, sure, in a non-democratic totalitarian system, such public “admissions of mistakes” — and the synchronized dissemination thereof by the media — would just be a part of the process of whitewashing the authorities’ fascistic behavior during some particularly totalitarian phase of transforming society into whatever totalitarian dystopia they were trying to transform it into (for example, a three-year-long “state of emergency,” which they declared to keep the masses terrorized and cooperative while they stripped them of their democratic rights, i.e., the ones they hadn’t already stripped them of, and conditioned them to mindlessly follow orders, and robotically repeat nonsensical official slogans, and vent their impotent hatred and fear at the new “Untermenschen” or “counter-revolutionaries”), but that is obviously not the case here.

No, this is definitely not the German authorities staging a public “accountability” spectacle in order to memory-hole what happened during 2020-2023 and enshrine the official narrative in history. There’s going to be a formal “Inquiry Commission” — conducted by the same German authorities that managed the “crisis” — which will get to the bottom of all the regrettable but completely understandable “mistakes” that were made in the heat of the heroic battle against The Divisive Virus!

OK, calm down, all you “conspiracy theorists,” “Covid deniers,” and “anti-vaxxers.” This isn’t going to be like the Nuremberg Trials. No one is going to get taken out and hanged. It’s about identifying and acknowledging mistakes, and learning from them, so that the authorities can manage everything better during the next “pandemic,” or “climate emergency,” or “terrorist attack,” or “insurrection,” or whatever.

For example, the Inquiry Commission will want to look into how the government accidentally declared a Nationwide State of Pandemic Emergency and revised the Infection Protection Act, suspending the German constitution and granting the government the power to rule by decree, on account of a respiratory virus that clearly posed no threat to society at large, and then unleashed police goon squads on the thousands of people who gathered outside the Reichstag to protest the revocation of their constitutional rights.

Once they do, I’m sure they’ll find that that “mistake” bears absolutely no resemblance to the Enabling Act of 1933, which suspended the German constitution and granted the government the power to rule by decree, after the Nazis declared a nationwide “state of emergency.”

Another thing the Commission will probably want to look into is how the German authorities accidentally banned any further demonstrations against their arbitrary decrees, and ordered the police to brutalize anyone participating in such “illegal demonstrations.”

And, while the Commission is inquiring into the possibly slightly inappropriate behavior of their law enforcement officials, they might want to also take a look at the behavior of their unofficial goon squads, like Antifa, which they accidentally encouraged to attack the “anti-vaxxers,” the “Covid deniers,” and anyone brandishing a copy of the German constitution.

Come to think of it, the Inquiry Commission might also want to look into how the German authorities, and the overwhelming majority of the state and corporate media, accidentally systematically fomented mass hatred of anyone who dared to question the government’s arbitrary and nonsensical decrees or who refused to submit to “vaccination,” and publicly demonized us as “Corona deniers,” “conspiracy theorists,” “anti-vaxxers,” “far-right anti-Semites,” etc., to the point where mainstream German celebrities like Sarah Bosetti were literally describing us as the inessential “appendix” in the body of the nation, quoting an infamous Nazi almost verbatim.

And then there’s the whole “vaccination” business. The Commission will certainly want to inquire into that. They will probably want to start their inquiry with Karl Lauterbach, and determine exactly how he accidentally lied to the public, over and over, and over again …

And whipped people up into a mass hysteria over “KILLER VARIANTS” …

And “LONG COVID BRAIN ATTACKS” …

And how “THE UNVACCINATED ARE HOLDING THE WHOLE COUNTRY HOSTAGE, SO WE NEED TO FORCIBLY VACCINATE EVERYONE!”

And so on. I could go on with this all day, but it will be much easier to just refer you, and the Commission, to this documentary film by Aya Velázquez. Non-German readers may want to skip to the second half, unless they’re interested in the German “Corona Expert Council” …

Look, the point is, everybody makes “mistakes,” especially during a “state of emergency,” or a war, or some other type of global “crisis.” At least we can always count on the Germans to step up and take responsibility for theirs, and not claim that they didn’t know what was happening, or that they were “just following orders,” or that “the science changed.”

Plus, all this Covid stuff is ancient history, and, as Olaf, an editor at Der Spiegel, reminds us, it’s time to put the “The Divisive Pandemic” behind us …

… and click heels, and heil the New Normal Democracy!

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/16/2024 - 23:20

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