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2023 RealTrends real estate brokerage rankings show growth in low-cost firms
The top four RealTrends 500 brokerage firms maintained their 20% market share in the U.S. But, low-cost firms gained market share.
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2022 was a roller coaster year, continuing the strong pandemic and post-pandemic fueled housing market through the first half of the year. Then, in the third quarter, we saw an abrupt stop to the record-breaking housing market. Despite market headwinds, the top brokerages continued to show growth in the 2023 RealTrends 500 brokerage rankings.
While the top four companies stayed at the top, eXp Realty displaced HomeServices of America, who had a stronghold on the No. 1 spot in transaction sides for the past four years.
Last year, Compass rose to No. 1 in sales volume to to the top of the list and retained their No. 1 spot this year, with Anywhere Advisors at No. 2.
eXp Realty moved from No. 4 with 355,627 transaction sides in 2022 to No. 1 this year, with 397,138 transactions side, sparking an incredible growth line for the brand.
Top four maintain 20% market share
The top four – Anywhere Advisors, HomeServices of America, Compass and eXp Realty – stayed at around 20% market share in the U.S.
“These four brokerage companies did just over $20 billion in residential gross commission revenue, which shows steady growth in a down market,” said RealTrends Senior Advisor Steve Murray. “In the 2021 rankings (based on 2020 data), these same firms closed just over $14 billion, so the increase was 43% in one year among just these four firms and stayed the same between 2022 and 2023.”
“This year’s list shows the impact of a shifting market on the top brokerage firms in the country. While transaction sides and volume were understandably down from their 2021 peak, the firms represented in the RealTrends 500 outperformed the market and their peers in almost all categories,” says Mark Adams, Vice President of Real Estate at HW Media.
After record 2020 and 2021 years, the 2023 RealTrends 500 brokerage rankings again show that the largest firms are gaining share at rates not seen before 2020. “We’ve seen three years in a row of record growth of the RealTrends 500 firms in share of transactions, volume and number of Realtors,” says Steve Murray, founder of the rankings and a senior advisor for RealTrends.
Steady numbers between 2022 and 2023
All firms in the 2023 RealTrends 500 (RT500) did approximately 40.6% of all brokerage-controlled sales in the country, staying even with the 2022 rankings, with 35.9% of all Realtors. Agents with RT500 firms had an average of 6.6 transactions per agent, compared to 7.9 transactions per agent last year. This year, the median number of agents per RT500 firm was 1,180, up from 1,138 in 2022’s rankings. The number was 1,025 in 2021.
Low-fee or low-cost brokerage firms stay steady
Of the top 25 RealTrends 500 brokerage firms by transaction sides, seven firms are considered low-fee or low-cost firms. Low-cost or low-fee firms charge a flat fee to the agents, or have higher splits to the agents, than traditional firms.
United Real Estate tops the list at No. 7. Others in the top 25 include, HomeSmart (9), Fathom Realty (10), The Real Brokerage (11), Real Estate ONE Group (15), West USA Realty (19), and Samson Properties (23). Several of these firms gained transaction and ranked higher this year than last year, including United Real Estate, West USA Realty and Samson Properties.
48 new Billionaire’s Club players
The Billionaire’s Club consists of the top U.S. real estate brokerage firms that closed at least one billion dollars’ worth of real estate in 2022, according to data from the 2023 RealTrends 500 brokerage rankings. While the number of Billionaire’s Club is lower than last year, sitting at 392 firms, compared to 435 in 2022, it’s still higher than the 347 members in 2021, but this year’s rankings also feature many firms on the list for the first time.
This year, there were 48 new firms in The Billionaire’s Club. It’s important to note that they may have made it in previous years but were not on the list last year.
Slower growth
“In a down year, leading brokerage firms represented on the RealTrends 500 once again picked up market share in terms of total transactions and sales volume,” said Murray. “Interesting to note that the four largest brokerage firms only held their own collectively. What is noticeable is that low-cost brokerage firms gained the most ground on the market.”
Murray notes that the larger firms — with well known national or local brands and access to technology and marketing tools that are not generally available to all others — gained ground as well. “Most importantly, growth was not owned solely by one brand or model or market area. This leads us to conclude that leadership at the local level remains the most important factor in growth,” he said.
RealTrends has been the undisputed leader in the ranking of real estate brokerage firms, agents and teams. Third-party verification is mandatory to confirm the validity of transaction sides and sales volume submitted by the firms.
Due to RealTrends and RTC Consulting’s large valuation and M&A practice, “we have access to hundreds of brokerage financial statements every year,” said Murray. “Because of those financial statements, we are at an advantage to determine the accuracy of the numbers submitted to us, which serves as an additional layer of verification in the process we use.”
Find the 2023 RealTrends 500 brokerage rankings and more analysis of insights from the report at Realtrends.com.
real estate housing market pandemic
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How much more financial pressure can Australian mortgagees take?
Talk to anyone on the street these days and the conversation will inevitably turn to how inflation is increasing their cost of living in some form or another….
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Talk to anyone on the street these days and the conversation will inevitably turn to how inflation is increasing their cost of living in some form or another. Inflation has risen steadily since the beginning of 2022 despite the determined efforts of Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to bring it back towards its target range of 2-3 per cent.
In less than 1 year and 11 interest rate rises later, official interest rates have risen from 0.10 per cent to 3.85 per cent but inflation remains stubbornly high at 7 per cent. Interest rates have never risen this fast before nor from such a historically low level either.
As previously outlined in an earlier blog entry on Commonwealth Bank (ASX:CBA), the big four banks of Australia have just under 80 per cent of the residential property mortgage loan market. In “normal” economic times of rising interest rates, banks should be natural beneficiaries of these conditions. However, these are not normal times.
The business model of banks has generally stayed the same for centuries, i.e. borrow money from one source at a low interest rate and lend it to a customer at a higher rate. Today, the Australian banks generally get their funding from wholesale and retail sources. However, the banks were offered a one-off funding source from the RBA called the Term Funding Facility (TFF) during the COVID-19 period to support the economy. This started in April 2020, priced at an unprecedented low fixed rate of 0.10 per cent for 3 years with the last drawdown accepted in June 2021 for a total of $188 billion. Fast forward to today and the first drawdowns from this temporary facility have already started to roll-off which means that these fund sources need to be replaced with one of considerably more expensive sources, namely wholesale funding or retail deposits. As a result of this change in funding, bank CEOs have unanimously declared that net interest margins, and hence its effect on bank earnings, have peaked for this cycle despite speculation that interest rates may still rise later in the year.
Prior to the start of the roll-off of TFF drawdowns, the entire Australian banking industry engaged in cutthroat competition for new and refinancing mortgage loans in a bid to maintain or grow market share. In the aftermath of the bank reporting season, two of the big four banks have stated they are no longer pursuing market share at any price, with CBA and National Australia Bank (ASX:NAB) announcing they will scrap their refinancing cashback offers after 1 June and 30 June respectively.
Turning our attention back to the average Australian, the big bank mortgage customers have been remarkably resilient. The Australian dream of owning the house you live in is still alive for now, with owners willing to endure significant lifestyle changes in a bid to keep up with mortgage payments. The big banks have reflected this phenomenon with a reduction in individual loan provisions and only a modest increase in collective loan provisions.
Time will tell how much more financial pressure Australian mortgagees can take, especially with the RBA still undecided on the future trajectory of interest rates. What has been agreed on by the big banks, is that things are not going to get easier. At least not in the short-term.
The Montgomery Funds own shares in the Commonwealth Bank of Australia and National Australia Bank. This article was prepared 29 May 2023 with the information we have today, and our view may change. It does not constitute formal advice or professional investment advice. If you wish to trade these companies you should seek financial advice.
interest rates covid-19Uncategorized
U.S. Breakeven Inflation Comments
I just refreshed my favourite U.S. breakeven inflation chart (above), and I was surprised by how placid pricing has been. This article gives a few observations regarding the implications of TIPS pricing.Background note: the breakeven inflation rate is …
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Background note: the breakeven inflation rate is the inflation rate that results in an inflation-linked bond — TIPS in the U.S. market — having the same total return as a conventional bond. If we assume that there are no risk premia, then it can be interpreted as “what the market is pricing in for inflation.” I have a free online primer here, as well as a book on the subject.
(As an aside, I often run into people who argue that “breakeven inflation has nothing to do with inflation/inflation forecasts.” I discuss this topic in greater depth in my book, but the premise that inflation breakevens have nothing to do with inflation only makes sense from a very short term trading perspective — long-term valuation is based on the breakeven rate versus realised inflation.)
The top panel shows the 10-year breakeven inflation rate. Although it scooted upwards after the pandemic, it is below where is was pre-Financial Crisis, and roughly in line with the immediate post-crisis period. (Breakevens fell at the end of the 2010s due to persistent misses of the inflation target to the downside.) Despite all the barrels of virtual ink being dumped on the topic of inflation, there is pretty much no inflation risk premium in pricing.
The bottom panel shows forward breakeven inflation: the 5-year rate starting 5 years in the future. (The 10-year breakeven inflation rate is (roughly) the average of the 5-year spot rate — not shown — and that forward rate.) It is actually lower than its “usual” level pre-2014, and did not really budge after recovering from its post-recession dip. (My uninformed guess is that the forward rate was depressed because inflation bulls bid up the front breakevens — because they were the most affected by an inflation shock — while inflation bears would have focussed more on long-dated breakevens, with the forward being mechanically depressed as a result.)
Since I am not offering investment advice, all I can observe is the following.
Since it looks like one would need a magnifying glass to find an inflation risk premium, TIPS do seem like a “non-expensive” inflation hedge. (I use “non-expensive” since they do not look cheap.) Might be less painful than short duration positions (if one were inclined to do that).
Breakeven volatility is way more boring than I would have expected based on the recent movements in inflation. The undershoot during the recession was not too surprising given negative oil prices and expectations of another lost decade, but the response to the inflation spike was restrained.
The “message for the economy” is that market pricing suggests that either inflation reverts on its own, or the Fed is expected to break something bigger than a few hapless regional banks if inflation does not in fact revert.
Otherwise, I am preparing for a video panel on MMT at the Canadian Economics Association 2023 Conference on Tuesday. (One needs to pay the conference fee to see the panel.) I have also been puttering around with my inflation book. I have a couple draft sections that I might put up in the coming days/weeks.
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“What’s More Tragic Is Capitalism”: BLM Faces Bankruptcy As Founder Cullors Is Cut By Warner Bros
"What’s More Tragic Is Capitalism": BLM Faces Bankruptcy As Founder Cullors Is Cut By Warner Bros
Authored by Jonathan Turley,
Two years…
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Two years ago, I wrote columns about companies pouring money into Black Lives Matter to establish their bona fides as “antiracist” corporations. The money continued to flow despite serious questions raised about BLM’s management and accounting. Democratic prosecutors like New York Attorney General Letitia James showed little interest in these allegations even as James sought to disband the National Rifle Association (NRA) over similar allegations. At the same time, Black Lives Matter co-founder Patrisse Cullors cashed in with companies like Warner Bros. eager to give her massive contracts to signal their own reformed status. It now appears that BLM is facing bankruptcy after burning through tens of millions and Warner Bros. cut ties with Cullors after the contract produced no — zero — new programming.
Some states belatedly investigated BLM as founders like Cullors seemed to scatter to the winds.
Gone are tens of millions of dollars, including millions spent on luxury mansions and windfalls for close associates of BLM leaders.
The usual suspects gathered around the activists like former Clinton campaign general counsel Marc Elias, who later removed himself from his “key role” as the scandals grew.
When questions were raised about the lack of accounting and questionable spending, BLM attacked critics as “white supremacists.”
Warner Bros. was one of the companies eager to grab its own piece of Cullors to signal its own anti-racist virtues. It gave Cullors a lucrative contract to guide the company in the creation of both scripted and non-scripted content, focusing on reparations and other forms of social justice. It launched a publicity campaign for everyone to know that it established a “wide-ranging content partnership” with Cullors who would now help guide the massive corporation’s new programming. Calling Cullors “one of the most influential thought leaders in American public life,” Warner Bros. announced that she was going to create a wide array of new programming, including “but not limited to live-action scripted drama and comedy series; longform/event series; unscripted docuseries; animated programming for co-viewing among kids, young adults and families; and original digital content.”
Some are now wondering if Warner Bros. ever intended for this contract to produce anything other than a public relations pitch or whether Cullors took the money and ran without producing even a trailer for an actual product. Indeed, both explanations may be true.
Paying money to Cullors was likely viewed as a type of insurance to protect the company from accusations of racial insensitive. After all, the company was giving creative powers to a person who had no prior experience or demonstrated talent in the area. Yet, Cullors would be developing programming for one of the largest media and entertainment companies in the world.
One can hardly blame Cullors despite criticizism by some on the left for going on a buying spree of luxury properties.
After all, Cullors was previously open about her lack of interest in working with “capitalist” elements. Nevertheless, BLM was run like a Trotskyite study group as the media and corporations poured in support and revenue.
It was glaringly ironic to see companies like Warner Bros. falling over each other to grab their own front person as the group continued boycotts of white-owned businesses. Indeed, if you did not want to be on the wrong end of one of those boycotts, you needed to get Cullors on your payroll.
Much has now changed as companies like Bud Light have been rocked by boycotts over what some view as heavy handed virtue signaling campaigns.
It was quite a change for Cullors and her BLM co-founder, who previously proclaimed “[we] are trained Marxists. We are super versed on, sort of, ideological theories.” She denounced capitalism as worse than COVID-19. Yet, companies like Lululemon rushed to find their own “social justice warrior” while selling leggings for $120 apiece.
When some began to raise questions about Cullors buying luxury homes, Facebook and Twitter censored them.
With increasing concerns over the loss of millions, Cullors eventually stepped down as executive director of the Black Lives Matter Global Network Foundation, as others resigned. At the same time, the New York Post was revealing that BLM Global Network transferred $6.3 million to Cullors’ spouse, Janaya Khan, and other Canadian activists to purchase a mansion in Toronto in 2021.
According to The Washington Examiner, BLM PAC and a Los Angeles-based jail reform group paid Cullors $20,000 a month. It also spent nearly $26,000 on meetings at a luxury Malibu beach resort in 2019. Reform LA Jails, chaired by Cullors, received $1.4 million, of which $205,000 went to the consulting firm owned by Cullors and her spouse, according to New York magazine.
Once again, while figures like James have spent huge amounts of money and effort to disband the NRA over such accounting and spending controversies, there has been only limited efforts directed against BLM in New York and most states.
Cullors once declared that “while the COVID-19 illness is tragic, what’s more tragic is capitalism.” These companies seem to be trying to prove her point. Yet, at least for Cullors, Warner Bros. fulfilled its slogan that this is all “The stuff that dreams are made of.”
U.S. Breakeven Inflation Comments
Biden reaches ‘tentative’ US debt ceiling deal: Report
Biden reaches ‘tentative’ US debt ceiling deal: Report
“What’s More Tragic Is Capitalism”: BLM Faces Bankruptcy As Founder Cullors Is Cut By Warner Bros
How much more financial pressure can Australian mortgagees take?
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