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2021: A Story in Charts

  2021 was a complete break from the norm of the last decade. We’re experiencing the first serious bout of inflation since the 1970s, a rally in commodities that some are calling a new “supercycle,” and some of the craziest short squeezes in history. …

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2021 was a complete break from the norm of the last decade. We’re experiencing the first serious bout of inflation since the 1970s, a rally in commodities that some are calling a new “supercycle,” and some of the craziest short squeezes in history. 

Many of 2021’s most compelling stories will surely have some place in the financial history books, and the pandemic is a catalyst for most of them. 

I’ve collected a mass of charts throughout this year from a barrage of sources, with the biggest source being The Daily Shot’s daily newsletter which is packed with charts, as well as financial Twitter, news articles, blogs, and the like.

The 2021 Mega Theme: Inflation

It comes as no surprise that after printing trillions of dollars and shutting down portions of the US economy that we’re experiencing inflation.

The Federal Reserve, for better or worse, responded to coronavirus with “unlimited” quantitative easing to stimulate a shutdown economy following the coronavirus panic. 

The combination of heaps of economic stimulus (much of it driven directly to consumers, like PPP and stimulus checks), pent-up demand from lockdowns easing, and supply chain constraints driven by labor shortages and sudden demand are the perfect storm for inflation. 

Nassim Taleb put it this way: buying 50 things in 2020 and 50 things in 2021 are not the same as buying 0 things in 2020 and 100 things in 2021.

One of the primary post-pandemic investing battlegrounds is between the “hyperinflationistas,” who believe destruction of the US dollar is imminent, and that we’re due for massive inflation, and the “transitory” crowd, who think that inflation will be short-lived merely as a result of short-term supply chain constraints that will sort themselves out. 

These charts tell the story of that battle. Let’s hope that whoever ends up being right in the end has the P&L to match that, or else what’s the point right?

M2: How Much Money Is There?

At its most basic, inflation occurs when there is more money chasing fewer goods. You can get that from increasing the money supply, or deflating the goods supply.

One way we can measure how much money is in the economy is the Federal Reserve’s M2 money supply.

This essentially counts up all of the money in cash, checking accounts, savings accounts, money market accounts, and time deposits like CDs. 

Below is a chart of M2 from the late 1950s to 2021: 

Higher M2 means more money is floating out there in the economy. This number is almost always going up, and that’s by design. As you can see, the money supply has been steadily growing over the last several decades. And this makes sense. Both GDP and population have been growing, and arguably, a good currency (which is transactional and not an investment or store of value) steadily loses value over time to encourage actual investment and not the hoarding of cash.

But the rate of change massively accelerated in 2020 and 2021. The chart almost looks like a stock which had a huge surprise earnings beat. The upshot here is that there’s a ton more money in circulation than there was before.

CPI: The Official Inflation Rate

CPI gets a lot of flak for questionable weightings and whatnot, but it’s the official inflation benchmark used by the US government and tons of inflation-pegged securities, so even if it’s not the best gauge of inflation, it’s still pretty important. 

CPI hit an annualized rate of 7% in December 2021, the highest since the 1970s. It’s inarguable that inflation is back, the argument now is whether it’s temporary or here to stay. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who popularized calling inflation “transitory” stepped back from that tone back in December, though, after repeated ugly CPI prints. For now, Team Inflation is in the driver’s seat. 

Below is a chart of CPI since the BLS started tracking the data in the 1940s: 

 

Let’s take a more granular look at the components driving the inflation: 

Lumber

Lumber prices went way up in 2021, way down, then way up again. This volatility was driven by the boom in housing development and renovation post-pandemic, which account for roughly 70% of lumber demand. 

All of this new development is driven by migration out of cities and into the suburbs and rural areas.

Just look at this rally compared to the previous 10 years of price action: 

 

Estimates puts $36,000 as the average added cost to a new home as a result of lumber prices at those elevated levels.

The Devaluation of the Turkish Lira

Turkey, like many nations right now, has an inflation problem. But Turkey’s is potentially regime-breaking, while the US and Europe’s are merely headache-making. 

Turkish President Erdogan ordered the printing of tons of money while simultaneously cutting interest rates: this makes money plentiful and hence, worth less. 

Let’s take a look at the US Dollar to Turkish Lira exchange rate: 

Turkish citizens responded by exchanging their Lira for crypto in yet another instance of victims of inflation turning to crypto. Tether trading volume was more than 50% in Turkish Lira briefly in December: 

Returns of Equity Strategies

One of the main equity themes of early 2021 was the ‘reflation’ trade, in other words, selling long-duration assets like unprofitable tech, and buying companies with strong cash flows that are resistant to inflation.

A good proxy for this is simply growth vs. value. Let’s see how the primary equity factors performed in 2021:

Source: S&P Global

 

It’s a pretty mixed bag, mostly owed to the different quantitative definitions for different factor indexes created by S&P Global. And much of this could be distorted by the fact that S&P 500 returns were driven primarily by the FAANG universe of stocks:

Source: S&P Global

 

It’s also worth noting the returns of cyclical assets relative to defensive assets:

Source: topdowncharts.com 

The Year of Retail

The retail trader played a huge role in the 2021 equity markets, accounting for 23% of all US equity trading, compared to just half that in 2019.

Source: FT 

Their increased interest in trading makes market makers more interested in trading, because retail trades are ‘uninformed order flow,’ which is profitable to trade against. So the more retail trades, the more MMs want to trade. This leads us to the following graph: 

We can’t talk about retail without talking about some of their favorite stocks: GameStop and AMC. These were historic short squeezes achieved by retail traders collaborating on Reddit, Twitter, and the like to buy the same highly-shorted, relatively illiquid names in size. 

After the pandemic, the writing was pretty much on the wall for GameStop and AMC. The former relies on people buying physical video games from the mall when most of that business is digital, and the latter is a movie theater chain in an era of at-home streaming during a pandemic. Both had pretty ugly financials and are classic ‘melting ice-cube’ shorts. 

So hedge funds shorted them in size. Shorting stocks like these provides a downside hedge, this allows hedge funds to buy their favorite stocks on margin because of the protection their shorts provides. The theory goes that if they’re good at picking both good and bad companies, their good companies will go up more than the bad ones, and they’ll make a nice return without taking massive risk. 

But Redditors figured out GameStop and AMC were “hedge fund hotels,” stocks which hedge funds crowd into, making it a game of hot potato. And this gets more violent on the short side, as was on display with the Volkswagen short squeeze during the financial crisis. 

While these trades were discussed all throughout the internet, Reddit’s WallStreetBets was definitely the central hub. 

Here’s a chart of GameStop (GME), the first of the mega short squeezes: 

AMC squeezed alongside GME in January 2021, but it wasn’t the main event until summer 2021: 

Perhaps most impressive is the staying power of these stocks. While most short squeezes are fleeting; they last a few days before returning to the pre-squeeze price, GME and AMC were different.

The traders in these stocks actually believed in these companies and many remain as long-term investors. Partly due to their belief in the company, partly because they believe more short squeezes are imminent, and partly as a form of protest against hedge funds that they believe are market manipulators. 

While both AMC and GME have cooled off considerably since their squeezes, their prices have remained steady above their post-squeeze levels for several months each, a testament to the unpredictability of retail investors: 

 

Beyond just trading short squeezes, retail traders became enamored with options trading in 2020 and 2021, driving record volumes in the options market. 

Much of this increased retail trading activity is attributed to the pandemic. People were stuck at home and found Robinhood and WallStreetBets. As evidence, Robinhood almost doubled their users in 2021 alone. Bloomberg’s Matt Levine calls this phenomenon the “boredom markets hypothesis.”

Source: BusinessOfApps 

Bill Hwang’s Big Bet Goes Wrong

Before his blow-up, Bill Hwang was a pretty legendary investor. He was a Tiger Cub, meaning he opened up his own Tiger fund under the guidance of Julian Robertson. He opened Tiger Asia Management which eventually grew to over $5 billion at its peak. 

He minted a fortune from managing the Tiger fund and opened a family office, which managed his own and close associates’ $10 billion of money. 

In dealings with several different investment banks, Hwang bought total return swaps on a concentrated portfolio of media and Chinese tech stocks with considerable leverage. He controlled so much of the float of these stocks that there was nobody to sell to should things go wrong. 

Well, one of his stocks, ViacomCBS, announced a secondary offering which must’ve given him a margin call as his brokers began aggressively selling shares to recoup their principal. But because he was so leveraged and the selling was so aggressive, the prime brokers ended up eating large losses. Credit Suisse lost an estimated $5.5 billion in the debacle. 

Here’s a Bloomberg chart of a few of his key portfolio holdings:

Source: Bloomberg 

However, you don’t see the real damage unless you look at individual charts.

ViacomCBS (VIAC): 

Discovery (DISCA): 

Many of these stocks have yet to recover their massive one-day losses. But that could simply be due to the fact that Hwang’s buying was pushing the price up to unsustainable levels, and once he exited the market they reverted to fair prices: 

Crypto vs Metals

Precious metals like gold and silver are seen as long-term stores of value and a hedge against US dollar inflation. But the growth of crypto is threatening its status as an inflation hedge. 

In the year with the highest inflation on record in decades, Bitcoin handily outperformed precious metals, which actually went down in value:

Source: Visual Capitalist

 

Many gold investors are disappointed, as this really seems like gold’s time to shine and it’s asleep at the wheel, moving sideways for all of 2021: 

However, Bitcoin is not without its own issues. Rather than lack of action, like gold, the entire crypto market has been predictably volatile in 2021. If the start and end dates were a bit different, gold may have outperformed: 

Bottom Line

2021 was such an exciting year in the financial markets. This article could easily be two or three times as long as it is, there were so many compelling stories. Among some of those I’ve left out: 

  • The US dollar’s relative strength against global currencies
  • The interesting developments between labor and capital, between work-from-home and labor shortages.
  • The parabolic moves in the used car market
  • How energy became centrally important to Europe in 2021
  • Supply chain bottlenecks, and the projections of industry insiders

The post 2021: A Story in Charts appeared first on Warrior Trading.

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Economics

5 Top Consumer Stocks To Watch Right Now

Are these consumer stocks a buy amid the earnings season?
The post 5 Top Consumer Stocks To Watch Right Now appeared first on Stock Market News, Quotes,…

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5 Trending Consumer Stocks To Watch In The Stock Market Now         

As we tread through the earnings season, consumer stocks could be worth watching in the stock market this week. This would be the case since a number of big consumer names such as Costco (NASDAQ: COST) and Macy’s (NYSE: M) will be posting their financials for the quarter. As such, investors will be keeping an eye on these reports for clues on the strength of consumer spending amid this period of high inflation.

However, despite the soaring prices across the economy, it seems that consumers are surprisingly showing resilience. According to the Commerce Department, retail sales in April outpaced inflation for a fourth straight month. This could suggest that consumers as a whole were not only sustaining their spending, but spending more even after adjusting for inflation. Ultimately, it could be a reassuring sign that consumers are still supporting the economy and helping to diminish the narrative of an incoming recession. With that being said, here are five consumer stocks to check out in the stock market today.

Consumer Stocks To Buy [Or Sell] Right Now

Nordstrom

retail stocks (JWN stock)

Starting off our list of consumer stocks today is Nordstrom. For the most part, it is a fashion retailer of full-line luxury apparel, footwear, accessories, and cosmetics among others. The company operates through multiple retail channels, boutiques, and online as well. As it stands, Nordstrom operates around 100 stores in 32 states in the U.S. and three Canadian provinces.

Yesterday, the company reported its financials for the first quarter of 2022. Starting with revenue, Nordstrom pulled in net sales worth $3.47 million for the quarter. This marks an increase of 18.7% from the same quarter last year. Its Nordstrom banner saw net sales rise by 23.5% year-over-year, exceeding pre-pandemic levels. Next to that, its Nordstrom Rack banner saw a 10.3% increase in net sales from last year. Besides, net earnings were $20 million, with earnings per share of $0.13 for the quarter. Considering Nordstrom’s solid quarter, should you invest in JWN stock?

[Read More] Best Stocks To Invest In Right Now? 5 Value Stocks To Watch This Week

The Wendy’s Company

best consumer stocks (WEN stock)

Next up, we have The Wendy’s Company. For the most part, it is the holding company for the major fast-food chain, Wendy’s. Being one of the world’s largest hamburger fast-food chains, the company boasts over 6,500 restaurants in the U.S. and 29 other countries. The chain is known for its square hamburgers, sea salt fries, and the Frosty, a form of soft-serve ice cream mixed with starches. WEN stock is rising by over 8% on today’s opening bell.

According to an SEC filing, Wendy’s largest shareholder, Trian Partners, is looking into making a potential deal with the company. Trian said that it is considering a deal to “enhance shareholder value.” Also, the firm adds that this could lead to an acquisition or business combination. In response, Wendy’s stated that it is constantly reviewing strategic priorities and opportunities. It added that the company’s board will carefully review any proposal from Trian. Given this piece of news, will you be watching WEN stock?

[Read More] 4 Semiconductor Stocks To Watch In The Stock Market Today

Foot Locker

FL stock

Another stock investors could be watching is the shoes and apparel company, Foot Locker. In brief, the company uses its omnichannel capabilities to bridge the digital world and physical stores. As such, it provides buy online and pickup-in-store services, order-in-store, as well as the growing trend of e-commerce. Some of its most notable brands include Eastbay, Footaction, Foot Locker, Champs Sports, and Sidestep. Last week, the company reported its results for the first quarter of the year.

For starters, total sales came in at $2.175 billion, a slight uptick compared to sales of $2.153 billion in the year prior. Next to that, Foot Locker reported a net income of $133 million. Accordingly, adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.60, beating Wall Street’s expectations of $1.54. CEO Richard Johnson added, “Our progress in broadening and enriching our assortment continues to meet our customers’ demand for choice. These efforts helped drive our strong results in the first quarter, which will allow us to more fully participate in the robust growth of our category going forward.”  As such, is FL stock one to add to your watchlist? 

Tyson Foods 

TSN stock

Tyson Foods is a company that built its name on providing families with wholesome and great-tasting protein products. Its segments include Beef, Pork, Chicken, and Prepared Foods. With some of the fastest-growing portfolio of protein-centric brands, it should not be surprising that TSN stock often comes to mind when investors are looking for the best consumer stocks to buy. 

Earlier this month, Tyson Foods provided its fiscal second-quarter financial update. The company’s total sales for the quarter were $13.1 billion, representing an increase of 15.9% compared to the prior year’s quarter. Meanwhile, its GAAP earnings per share climbed to $2.28, up 75% year-over-year. According to Tyson, these financial figures are a reflection of the increasing consumer demand for its brands and products. To top it off, the company was also able to reduce its total debt by approximately $1 billion. Thus, does TSN stock have a spot on your watchlist?

[Read More] Stock Market Today: Dow Jones, S&P 500 Rise, Wendy’s Stock Gains On Potential Deal

DoorDash

food delivery stocks (DASH Stock)

DoorDash is a consumer company that operates an online food ordering and delivery platform. In fact, it is one of the largest delivery companies in the U.S. and enjoys a huge market share. The company connects hundreds of thousands of merchants to over 25 million consumers in the U.S., Canada, Australia, and Japan through its local logistics platform. Accordingly, its platform allows local businesses to thrive in today’s “convenience economy,” as the company puts it.

On May 5, the company reported its first-quarter financials for 2022. Diving in, it posted a revenue of $1.5 billion, growing by 35% year-over-year. This was driven by total orders that grew by 23% year-over-year to $404 million. Along with that, it reported a GAAP gross profit of $662 million, an increase of 34% year-over-year. The company said that it added more consumers than any quarter since Q1 2021, due in part to the growth of its DashPass members. The growth in Monthly Active Users and average order frequency has helped it gain share in the U.S. Food Delivery category this quarter as well. Given DoorDash’s performance for the quarter, should you watch DASH stock?

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The post 5 Top Consumer Stocks To Watch Right Now appeared first on Stock Market News, Quotes, Charts and Financial Information | StockMarket.com.

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Economics

Finding Shelter in an Inverse ETF

As the old saying goes, “What goes up must come down.” Indeed, up until the recent selling wave caused by Russia’s war against Ukraine and the continued…

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As the old saying goes, “What goes up must come down.”

Indeed, up until the recent selling wave caused by Russia’s war against Ukraine and the continued effects of supply chain disruptions amid the COVID-19 pandemic, tech stocks, including semiconductors, were the darlings of the investment world. That is, it seemed as if the sky-high valuations of some tech stocks were sustainable in an atmosphere of seemingly perpetual growth.

That, of course, was not the case, and the too-good-to-be-true valuations were quickly brought down to earth by the forces of inflation and tight monetary policy. As a result, the tech-heavy Nasdaq entered a free-fall that has not yet found a bottom.

At the same time, that does not mean that we should abandon the sector as a lost cause. One such way to play the sector during its downhill slide is the exchange-traded fund (ETF) Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X Shares (NYSEARCA: SOXS).

As its title suggests, this is an inverse ETF, meaning that it is built to go up in value when its parent index goes down. Specifically, SOXS provides three times leveraged inverse exposure to a modified market-cap-weighted index of semiconductor companies that trade in American markets by using swap agreements, futures contracts and short positions.

While the index’s holdings are weighted by market capitalization, the fund’s managers cap the weights of the top five securities in the portfolio at 8% each. The weight of the remaining securities is capped at 4% each.

As of May 24, SOXS has been up 0.37% over the past month and up 24.73% for the past three months. It is currently up 60.47% year to date.

Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com

The fund has amassed $258.15 million in assets under management and has an expense ratio of 1.01%.

In short, while SOXS does provide an investor with a way to invest in an inverse ETF, this kind of ETF may not be appropriate for all portfolios. Thus, interested investors always should conduct their due diligence and decide whether the fund is suitable for their investing goals.

As always, I am happy to answer any of your questions about ETFs, so do not hesitate to send me an email. You just may see your question answered in a future ETF Talk.

The post Finding Shelter in an Inverse ETF appeared first on Stock Investor.

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Stocks

Will Albertsons outperform due to its high return on equity for low beta?

Albertsons Companies Inc. (NYSE:ACI) is trading at $29. The stock has risen 81.25% from the IPO in the last quarter of 2020. In the two years since going…

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Albertsons Companies Inc. (NYSE:ACI) is trading at $29. The stock has risen 81.25% from the IPO in the last quarter of 2020. In the two years since going public, Albertsons Companies paid dividends each quarter. The annual dividend currently stands at $0.48, with a yield of 1.64%.

Albertsons is rated high on both value and growth. The company’s heritage has been built over the years since its founding in 1939. Today, the company is the second-largest traditional grocer in the US.

The company went public during a pandemic to fund new growth opportunities. However, it faces the headwinds of inflation and bear markets. Despite pressures, Albertsons will be among the few stocks that will outperform the market.

The ROE stands at 74.48%. This is a fundamental strength that should make investors troop to Albertsons. The EPS is at $2.8 and growing at more than 6.13%. At the valuation of $29, the PE is just about 10. All this for a beta of only 0.3, indicating a low risk.

Albertsons has support at $26.80 and resistance at $36.75

Source – TradingView

Albertsons has support at $26.80. This week, the stock has been bullish, having gained 7.82%. It is among a handful of stocks that have been braving the bear markets. This analysis projects that the stock will face some resistance at $36.75. However, it would break out at the next earnings release on July 28. If an investor were to take a position today, there is the likelihood of enjoying significant gains by the next earnings call.

Summary

Albertsons is an attractive value and growth stock. The share is trading at $29 with a price target of $36 by the end of July. Albertsons is also emerging as an attractive dividend stock.

The post Will Albertsons outperform due to its high return on equity for low beta? appeared first on Invezz.

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