Government
18 months of the COVID-19 pandemic – a retrospective in 7 charts
A lot has happened since the WHO declared the coronavirus outbreak a pandemic. A portrait in data highlights trends in everything from case counts, to research publications, to variant spread.
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A year and a half into what the World Health Organization officially declared a pandemic on March 11, 2020, it’s an understatement to say that Americans are exhausted.
I’m an epidemiologist and an internationally recognized science communicator, and I’ve often found myself running between COVID-19 meetings asking “how did we get here?”
Figuring out the “how” is essential to preparing for the future. In trying to make sense of these past 18 months, I’ve found it helpful to broadly categorize the U.S. pandemic journey thus far into five phases: Scramble, Learn, Respond, Test and Hope.
Scramble: What’s going on?
In early 2020, SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, hit the United States. The first documented case was a traveler who landed in Seattle from Wuhan, China on Jan. 15. Only later did public health officials find that SARS-CoV-2 was already spreading throughout the community.
It wasn’t until March that Americans were forced to take the pandemic seriously, as states began to implement stay-at-home orders. While civilians were struggling to figure out child care, working from home and Immunology 101, epidemiologists started to react.
But maybe a better word is “scramble.” The U.S. did not have the public health infrastructure in place to effectively respond. A chronically underfunded and politicized public health system hampered the nation’s real-time response.
Epidemiologists were scrambling, left to rely on volunteers to report national level public health data because there was no centralized public health data system in the U.S. Public health officials were scrambling to enact safety recommendations and contact trace because of limited resources. Data scientists, like those at Johns Hopkins University, were scrambling to share accessible data for decision-making. Scientists were scrambling to develop COVID-19 tests. And everyone was scrambling to figure out how to communicate the evolving threat of the virus to American lives. From the beginning, the seeds were sown for a reactive, rather than proactive, approach.
Learn: Are we doing anything right?
Once the Northeast started to get under control, June 2020 was fairly quiet across the nation. Is this done? Maybe the decrease is due to weather? People started relaxing.
Then July hit. In one month, cases in the South were as high as they had been in the Northeast months earlier. The West started creeping up, too. The game of whack-a-mole began as there still wasn’t a coordinated, national response.
Health departments were expanding capacity for testing, tracing and surveillance. A multitude of multidisciplinary, academic teams were forming to understand COVID-19 from microscopic-level virology all the way to population-level social implications.
This is when published, peer-reviewed data on COVID-19 started coming through. In fewer than five months, scientific literature database Scopus indexed more than 12,000 publications. Researchers started discovering long COVID-19 symptoms and figuring out effective protective measures like social distancing and wearing a mask. Researchers also learned more about superspreader events and how COVID-19 is transmitted through the air – although this wasn’t officially recognized by the WHO or the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention until about a year later.
While the flood of evidence provided scientists and clinicians with critical information, a wave of retractions pulling papers with erroneous or unreliable data began to appear. This, coupled with lack of accurate scientific communication from unbiased sources, fueled a concurrent infodemic – an epidemic of misinformation and public health threats that researchers, social media companies and public health officials are still learning how to identify, mitigate and treat.
Respond: Bring it on, virus!
Then came winter, which proved to be a perfect storm of pandemic fatigue and holiday travel. This resulted in our biggest pandemic wave yet. More than 3,000 people were dying per day in the U.S.
Thankfully, help was on its way: vaccines. And not just pretty good vaccines – vaccines that blew efficacy out of the water. The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine proved to have an efficacy of 95%, significantly above the threshold target of 50%. Thanks to over 500,000 clinical trial volunteers, decades of mRNA research, an estimated US$39.5 billion and fast-moving scientists, the vaccines got to the public in record time. And, while the vaccine rollout was rough, more than 260 million doses were administered by May 2021 in the U.S.
With vaccines, though, came new challenges: a new fight against disinformation (no, mRNA does not change your DNA) and a struggle to understand breakthrough infections.
In the meanwhile, new COVID-19 variants arrived on the scene. Suboptimal genomic surveillance made it difficult to identify where and what variants were spreading. The race between vaccination and variant spread was upon us. The fight was far from over.
Test: We’re tired
Early summer 2021 for Americans was blissful. The U.S. reached an all-time pandemic low in terms of COVID-19 cases. People who were vaccinated were told they could take off their masks, while some unvaccinated people took this carte blanche. More Americans started traveling again and getting back to working in person.
But then the delta variant knocked on the door. Significantly more transmissible and severe than the original strain of the coronavirus, it first created a tsunami of cases in the South that then spread to every corner of the United States.
Unfortunately, pandemic fatigue has settled in. And the pandemic is pushing the U.S. response to its limits. It’s testing the amount of pressure vaccines can withstand. It’s testing health care system capacity. It’s testing the resilience of public health and health care workers. It’s testing the ability of scientists to effectively communicate ever-evolving research findings. And it’s testing the public’s patience as pediatric vaccines undergo clinical trials.
Hope: This will end
Every epidemic curve comes down. And this one will too. But even after it comes down, the pandemic will still be far from over.
There’s still trauma to be addressed. Families were robbed of proper funerals and goodbyes. Friendships were ripped apart by politically charged misinformation and disinformation. Millions of people lost their jobs. And frontline workers are still not OK. A survey of public health workers across the U.S. found that more than half reported symptoms of at least one mental health condition from March to April 2021.
The U.S. will also need to self-reflect as a nation. In order to deal effectively with the next infectious disease crisis, the U.S. will need to create centralized public health systems and expand genomic surveillance, hospital networks and testing capabilities. Scientists need to revamp how they accessibly communicate science and research so the CDC can build public trust again. And by removing politics from public health, science might be able to infiltrate echo chambers instead of feeding them.
Americans need to prepare so when the next pandemic hits, everyone will be ready to mount a proactive, effective fight against a common enemy: the virus.
[Get The Conversation’s most important coronavirus headlines, weekly in a science newsletter]
Katelyn Jetelina receive(s/d) research funding from NIH, CDC, DOJ, DHHS, Merck, and several non-profits (THR, HABRI, MMHPI, Arnold Foundation, HOGG). She is the sole founder and owner of Your Local Epidemiologist. She is the Senior Scientific Advisor to Judge Lina Hidalgo in Harris County.
cdc disease control pandemic coronavirus covid-19 vaccine testing clinical trials dna spread social distancing stay-at-home orders wuhan china world health organization
Government
Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study
Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study
Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
People with inadequate…
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Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
People with inadequate iron levels in their blood due to a COVID-19 infection could be at greater risk of long COVID.
A new study indicates that problems with iron levels in the bloodstream likely trigger chronic inflammation and other conditions associated with the post-COVID phenomenon. The findings, published on March 1 in Nature Immunology, could offer new ways to treat or prevent the condition.
Long COVID Patients Have Low Iron Levels
Researchers at the University of Cambridge pinpointed low iron as a potential link to long-COVID symptoms thanks to a study they initiated shortly after the start of the pandemic. They recruited people who tested positive for the virus to provide blood samples for analysis over a year, which allowed the researchers to look for post-infection changes in the blood. The researchers looked at 214 samples and found that 45 percent of patients reported symptoms of long COVID that lasted between three and 10 months.
In analyzing the blood samples, the research team noticed that people experiencing long COVID had low iron levels, contributing to anemia and low red blood cell production, just two weeks after they were diagnosed with COVID-19. This was true for patients regardless of age, sex, or the initial severity of their infection.
According to one of the study co-authors, the removal of iron from the bloodstream is a natural process and defense mechanism of the body.
But it can jeopardize a person’s recovery.
“When the body has an infection, it responds by removing iron from the bloodstream. This protects us from potentially lethal bacteria that capture the iron in the bloodstream and grow rapidly. It’s an evolutionary response that redistributes iron in the body, and the blood plasma becomes an iron desert,” University of Oxford professor Hal Drakesmith said in a press release. “However, if this goes on for a long time, there is less iron for red blood cells, so oxygen is transported less efficiently affecting metabolism and energy production, and for white blood cells, which need iron to work properly. The protective mechanism ends up becoming a problem.”
The research team believes that consistently low iron levels could explain why individuals with long COVID continue to experience fatigue and difficulty exercising. As such, the researchers suggested iron supplementation to help regulate and prevent the often debilitating symptoms associated with long COVID.
“It isn’t necessarily the case that individuals don’t have enough iron in their body, it’s just that it’s trapped in the wrong place,” Aimee Hanson, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Cambridge who worked on the study, said in the press release. “What we need is a way to remobilize the iron and pull it back into the bloodstream, where it becomes more useful to the red blood cells.”
The research team pointed out that iron supplementation isn’t always straightforward. Achieving the right level of iron varies from person to person. Too much iron can cause stomach issues, ranging from constipation, nausea, and abdominal pain to gastritis and gastric lesions.
1 in 5 Still Affected by Long COVID
COVID-19 has affected nearly 40 percent of Americans, with one in five of those still suffering from symptoms of long COVID, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Long COVID is marked by health issues that continue at least four weeks after an individual was initially diagnosed with COVID-19. Symptoms can last for days, weeks, months, or years and may include fatigue, cough or chest pain, headache, brain fog, depression or anxiety, digestive issues, and joint or muscle pain.
Government
Walmart joins Costco in sharing key pricing news
The massive retailers have both shared information that some retailers keep very close to the vest.
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As we head toward a presidential election, the presumed candidates for both parties will look for issues that rally undecided voters.
The economy will be a key issue, with Democrats pointing to job creation and lowering prices while Republicans will cite the layoffs at Big Tech companies, high housing prices, and of course, sticky inflation.
The covid pandemic created a perfect storm for inflation and higher prices. It became harder to get many items because people getting sick slowed down, or even stopped, production at some factories.
Related: Popular mall retailer shuts down abruptly after bankruptcy filing
It was also a period where demand increased while shipping, trucking and delivery systems were all strained or thrown out of whack. The combination led to product shortages and higher prices.
You might have gone to the grocery store and not been able to buy your favorite paper towel brand or find toilet paper at all. That happened partly because of the supply chain and partly due to increased demand, but at the end of the day, it led to higher prices, which some consumers blamed on President Joe Biden's administration.
Biden, of course, was blamed for the price increases, but as inflation has dropped and grocery prices have fallen, few companies have been up front about it. That's probably not a political choice in most cases. Instead, some companies have chosen to lower prices more slowly than they raised them.
However, two major retailers, Walmart (WMT) and Costco, have been very honest about inflation. Walmart Chief Executive Doug McMillon's most recent comments validate what Biden's administration has been saying about the state of the economy. And they contrast with the economic picture being painted by Republicans who support their presumptive nominee, Donald Trump.
Image source: Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Walmart sees lower prices
McMillon does not talk about lower prices to make a political statement. He's communicating with customers and potential customers through the analysts who cover the company's quarterly-earnings calls.
During Walmart's fiscal-fourth-quarter-earnings call, McMillon was clear that prices are going down.
"I'm excited about the omnichannel net promoter score trends the team is driving. Across countries, we continue to see a customer that's resilient but looking for value. As always, we're working hard to deliver that for them, including through our rollbacks on food pricing in Walmart U.S. Those were up significantly in Q4 versus last year, following a big increase in Q3," he said.
He was specific about where the chain has seen prices go down.
"Our general merchandise prices are lower than a year ago and even two years ago in some categories, which means our customers are finding value in areas like apparel and hard lines," he said. "In food, prices are lower than a year ago in places like eggs, apples, and deli snacks, but higher in other places like asparagus and blackberries."
McMillon said that in other areas prices were still up but have been falling.
"Dry grocery and consumables categories like paper goods and cleaning supplies are up mid-single digits versus last year and high teens versus two years ago. Private-brand penetration is up in many of the countries where we operate, including the United States," he said.
Costco sees almost no inflation impact
McMillon avoided the word inflation in his comments. Costco (COST) Chief Financial Officer Richard Galanti, who steps down on March 15, has been very transparent on the topic.
The CFO commented on inflation during his company's fiscal-first-quarter-earnings call.
"Most recently, in the last fourth-quarter discussion, we had estimated that year-over-year inflation was in the 1% to 2% range. Our estimate for the quarter just ended, that inflation was in the 0% to 1% range," he said.
Galanti made clear that inflation (and even deflation) varied by category.
"A bigger deflation in some big and bulky items like furniture sets due to lower freight costs year over year, as well as on things like domestics, bulky lower-priced items, again, where the freight cost is significant. Some deflationary items were as much as 20% to 30% and, again, mostly freight-related," he added.
bankruptcy pandemic trumpGovernment
Walmart has really good news for shoppers (and Joe Biden)
The giant retailer joins Costco in making a statement that has political overtones, even if that’s not the intent.
Share this:
As we head toward a presidential election, the presumed candidates for both parties will look for issues that rally undecided voters.
The economy will be a key issue, with Democrats pointing to job creation and lowering prices while Republicans will cite the layoffs at Big Tech companies, high housing prices, and of course, sticky inflation.
The covid pandemic created a perfect storm for inflation and higher prices. It became harder to get many items because people getting sick slowed down, or even stopped, production at some factories.
Related: Popular mall retailer shuts down abruptly after bankruptcy filing
It was also a period where demand increased while shipping, trucking and delivery systems were all strained or thrown out of whack. The combination led to product shortages and higher prices.
You might have gone to the grocery store and not been able to buy your favorite paper towel brand or find toilet paper at all. That happened partly because of the supply chain and partly due to increased demand, but at the end of the day, it led to higher prices, which some consumers blamed on President Joe Biden's administration.
Biden, of course, was blamed for the price increases, but as inflation has dropped and grocery prices have fallen, few companies have been up front about it. That's probably not a political choice in most cases. Instead, some companies have chosen to lower prices more slowly than they raised them.
However, two major retailers, Walmart (WMT) and Costco, have been very honest about inflation. Walmart Chief Executive Doug McMillon's most recent comments validate what Biden's administration has been saying about the state of the economy. And they contrast with the economic picture being painted by Republicans who support their presumptive nominee, Donald Trump.
Image source: Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Walmart sees lower prices
McMillon does not talk about lower prices to make a political statement. He's communicating with customers and potential customers through the analysts who cover the company's quarterly-earnings calls.
During Walmart's fiscal-fourth-quarter-earnings call, McMillon was clear that prices are going down.
"I'm excited about the omnichannel net promoter score trends the team is driving. Across countries, we continue to see a customer that's resilient but looking for value. As always, we're working hard to deliver that for them, including through our rollbacks on food pricing in Walmart U.S. Those were up significantly in Q4 versus last year, following a big increase in Q3," he said.
He was specific about where the chain has seen prices go down.
"Our general merchandise prices are lower than a year ago and even two years ago in some categories, which means our customers are finding value in areas like apparel and hard lines," he said. "In food, prices are lower than a year ago in places like eggs, apples, and deli snacks, but higher in other places like asparagus and blackberries."
McMillon said that in other areas prices were still up but have been falling.
"Dry grocery and consumables categories like paper goods and cleaning supplies are up mid-single digits versus last year and high teens versus two years ago. Private-brand penetration is up in many of the countries where we operate, including the United States," he said.
Costco sees almost no inflation impact
McMillon avoided the word inflation in his comments. Costco (COST) Chief Financial Officer Richard Galanti, who steps down on March 15, has been very transparent on the topic.
The CFO commented on inflation during his company's fiscal-first-quarter-earnings call.
"Most recently, in the last fourth-quarter discussion, we had estimated that year-over-year inflation was in the 1% to 2% range. Our estimate for the quarter just ended, that inflation was in the 0% to 1% range," he said.
Galanti made clear that inflation (and even deflation) varied by category.
"A bigger deflation in some big and bulky items like furniture sets due to lower freight costs year over year, as well as on things like domestics, bulky lower-priced items, again, where the freight cost is significant. Some deflationary items were as much as 20% to 30% and, again, mostly freight-related," he added.
bankruptcy pandemic trump
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