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1.3 Million Jobs Were Result Of Double-Counting This Year, Heritage Economist Says

1.3 Million Jobs Were Result Of Double-Counting This Year, Heritage Economist Says

Authored by Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times (emphasis…

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1.3 Million Jobs Were Result Of Double-Counting This Year, Heritage Economist Says

Authored by Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The monthly U.S. jobs reports have topped market estimates many times this year, including the July and August non-farm payrolls reports, which showed 528,000 and 315,000 new jobs, respectively, higher than what many economists and analysts had initially projected.  

A man walks past a "We're Hiring" sign posted outside of a restaurant in Arlington, Va., on June 3, 2022. (Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images)

White House officials have taken victory laps on the data, noting that these numbers are proof the economy is strong and that President Joe Biden’s policies are supporting post-pandemic growth.  

But economists had questions about discrepancies between Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data and the various labor-related numbers revealed throughout the month. Plus, why has the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening campaign failed to diminish labor demand?

Several experts may have determined what is causing better-than-expected labor numbers. The answer may have to do with double-counting.  

Is Double-Counting Hiding Labor Weakness?  

The non-farm payrolls report contains the results of two surveys: the establishment survey and the household survey. The former measures employment, hours, and earnings through a sample of businesses. The latter gauges “the labor force status of the civilian noninstitutional population with demographic detail” using a sample of households.  

The key difference between these two surveys is the methodology, since the establishment survey allows for double-counting. In other words, it will identify multiple jobholders for every position, meaning that a person with two jobs will count for two jobs. But the household survey will only consider an individual with two jobs as having one job.

BLS researchers also will count someone shifting to working for a company from self-employment as a new position, despite the lack of net gains in employment.  

There is considerable evidence that this double-counting has accelerated recently,” according to E.J. Antoni, a research fellow for regional economics at The Heritage Foundation’s Center for Data Analysis.

Of the 5.8 million jobs noted as recovered in the last year, roughly 1.3 million were the result of double-counting, Antoni’s research found. In the August numbers, double-counting accounted for 208,000 jobs.  

“Over the last year, a disproportionate number of people have taken second (or third) jobs and switched from self-employment to working for other businesses,” he told The Epoch Times. “These changes in employment do not actually change the number of people with jobs, but they boost the headline jobs number from the establishment survey, one of two surveys which make up the monthly Employment Situation report from the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.”  

How the figures are put together should prompt analysts to adopt “a holistic view on the monthly report” rather than the headline numbers, he added.  

Last month, the total number of multiple jobholders was a seasonally adjusted 7.747 million, and self-employed workers fell to 9.629 million.  

Mike Shedlock, a registered investment adviser for SitkaPacific Capital and author of the popular global economics blog MishTalk, also noted the trouble with how BLS gathers labor data.  

“In the household survey, if you work as little as one hour a week, even selling trinkets on eBay, you are considered employed,” he wrote. “In the household survey, if you work three part-time jobs, 12 hours each, the BLS considers you a full-time employee.”  

Moreover, other factors can distort the monthly labor report. For example, a common measurement is that if someone is out of work and fails to search for a job, he or she is described as having dropped out of the labor force, rather than being listed as unemployed.  

These distortions artificially lower the unemployment rate, artificially boost full-time employment, and artificially increase the payroll jobs report every month,” Shedlock said.  

What About Wage Growth?  

Many have championed accelerated wage growth over the past 18 months. In August, average hourly earnings held steady at 5.2 percent year over year, hitting $32.36. But inflation has eaten away at those gains.  

BLS data show that real average hourly earnings (inflation-adjusted) fell 2.8 percent. In addition, when real average hourly earnings are combined with the 0.6 percent drop in the average workweek, the figure is negative 3.4 percent.  

The longer inflation and inflation expectations remain elevated, the higher and longer-lasting the pressures on wage growth are likely to be,” Oscar Jorda, a senior policy adviser in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve, wrote in a recent paper.  

According to the Survey of Consumer Expectations conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations have remained little changed, at 3 percent, since December 2021. In addition, consumer inflation expectations over the next year eased to 5.7 percent in August, after potentially peaking at 6.8 percent in June. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/16/2022 - 14:45

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International

Nonprofit Blood Donation Service Starts Matching Unvaccinated Patients With Donors

Nonprofit Blood Donation Service Starts Matching Unvaccinated Patients With Donors

Authored by Allan Stein via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Swiss…

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Nonprofit Blood Donation Service Starts Matching Unvaccinated Patients With Donors

Authored by Allan Stein via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Swiss naturopathic physician George Della Pietra believes people worldwide should be free to choose whether to get a COVID-19 vaccine injection or not.

He believes the same should hold for those receiving transfusions with “vaccinated” blood.

“The problem is right now we have no choice,” said Della Pietra, founder of the nonprofit Safe Blood Donation service in 2021, matching unvaccinated blood recipients with donors in 65 countries.

“It was very clear from the beginning that the COVID hype was way out of control,” Della Pietra said. “It was not as dangerous as they say it was.

“As a naturopath, I can make no sense of this pandemic, which was never really a pandemic. It leaves space for so many explanations.”

Della Pietra believes that an mRNA injection is more dangerous than the pharmaceutical companies are willing to admit. He said the growing numbers of adverse reactions are reason to question their safety and effectiveness.

Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) showed that vaccinated and boosted people made up 58.6 percent (6,512) of the COVID-19 deaths in August—up from 41 percent in January.

We can no longer say this is a pandemic of the unvaccinated,” Cynthia Cox, the Vice President of the Kaiser Family Foundation told The Washington Post in an article on Nov. 23.

Nearly 70 percent of the world’s 8 billion people have received at least one mRNA injection for COVID-19 since the vaccines began rolling out in 2021 at the height of the virus’s spread.

Each of the three primary mRNA COVID-19 vaccines contains COVID-19 “spike protein” fragments, which bind at the cellular level to stimulate an immune response to the virus.

Della Pietra believes these spike proteins produce “classic symptoms”—namely blood clots—that “horrified” him.

“I’ve never seen anything similar—and I’m not talking only about spike proteins,” Della Pietra told The Epoch Times in a phone interview.

It’s unbelievable because we never had this problem before. It’s been only two years. They want to keep the narrative [that an mRNA vaccine] is not dangerous.”

A man looks at his phone while donating blood at Vitalant blood donation center in San Francisco on Jan. 11, 2022. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

Although donated blood and plasma must undergo a cleansing process before transfusion, Safe Blood Donation says this is not enough to remove all mRNA ingredients.

“I’m talking about graphene oxide and non-declared inorganic components in the vaccine, which we can see in the blood. When I see them, I have no idea how we can get rid of them again,” Della Pietra said.

Looking at the abnormalities in vaccinated blood, he said, “OK, we have a problem.” People are receiving the vaccine “more or less through the back door.”

“You can not avoid it anymore.”

In the United States alone, there are approximately 16 million units of donated blood annually. Of those units, about 643,000 are “autologous”—self-donated—and the number is increasing yearly, according to BloodBook.com.

Della Pietra said that, to his knowledge, Safe Blood Donation, based in Switzerland, is the first unvaccinated blood donation service of its kind.

“So, there is no blood bank with mRNA-free blood yet, not even with us,” Safe Blood Donation states on its website.

“And, although we have already asked hundreds of clinics, at the moment—at least in Europe—all of them still refuse to allow the human right of free blood choice with them—or at least do not want to be mentioned because otherwise, they fear reprisals.”

A nurse works as employees donate blood during a blood drive held in a bloodmobile in Los Angeles on March 19, 2020. (Mario Tama/Getty Images)

Della Pietra said the main goal of Safe Blood Donation is not to start an mRNA-free blood bank. Rather, it is to make it possible to match unvaccinated blood donors and unvaccinated recipients, “which we bring together in a clinic (medical partner) that allows the choice of blood donor.”

Medical website Seed Scientific said that blood banks and biotech companies will offer as much as $1,000 monthly for blood donations.

While Della Pietra said there are no unvaccinated blood banks, he sees the demand for unvaccinated blood rising.

This is why I decided to do [SafeBlood Donation]. I wanted to make a network for unvaccinated people looking for a blood donor because they need it—whether they have scheduled surgery or an emergency,” he said.

Safe Blood Donation began working in the United States about a month ago, building an infrastructure of medical partners.

However, in the current medical environment, central blood banks such as the Red Cross do not segregate their blood donations based on their vaccinated or unvaccinated status.

Rendering of SARS-CoV-2 spike proteins binding to ACE2 receptors. (Shutterstock)

“The American Red Cross does not facilitate designated donations for standard blood needs, as this process often takes longer and is more resource intensive than obtaining a blood product through our normal process,” the Red Cross told The Epoch Times in an email.

In a small number of situations, there is an exception for rare blood types where compatible blood types are extremely difficult to find. A rare blood type is defined as one that is present in less than 1/1000 people.

“We want to emphasize that the Red Cross adheres to all donor and product requirements as determined by the FDA to ensure the safety of the blood supply and is committed to continuing to provide life-saving blood products for patients across the country.”

The National Library of Medicine said that “across study sites, the average hospital cost per unit transfused was $155 and the average charge per patient was $219.”

Still, the Red Cross, which provides 40 percent of the nation’s blood donations, said “no studies” demonstrate adverse outcomes from transfusions of blood products collected from vaccinated donors.

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Tyler Durden Sun, 12/04/2022 - 20:55

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Spread & Containment

Pedestrians choose healthy obstacles over boring pavements, study finds

Up to 78% of walkers would take a more challenging route featuring obstacles such as balancing beams, steppingstones and high steps, research has found….

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Up to 78% of walkers would take a more challenging route featuring obstacles such as balancing beams, steppingstones and high steps, research has found. The findings suggest that providing ‘Active Landscape’ routes in urban areas could help tackle an “inactivity pandemic” and improve health outcomes.

Credit: Anna Boldina

Up to 78% of walkers would take a more challenging route featuring obstacles such as balancing beams, steppingstones and high steps, research has found. The findings suggest that providing ‘Active Landscape’ routes in urban areas could help tackle an “inactivity pandemic” and improve health outcomes.

[A copy of the paper and images can be downloaded here]

Millions of people in the UK are failing to meet recommended targets for physical activity. Exercising “on the go” is key to changing this but while walking along a pavement is better than nothing it causes no significant increase in heart rate so only qualifies as mild exercise. Walking also fails to significantly improve balance or bone density, unless it includes jumping, balancing, and stepping down.

But would adults opt for such ‘fun’ routes if given the choice? A University of Cambridge-led study published today in the journal Landscape Research suggests that with the right design, most would.

Previous research on ‘healthy route choices’ has focused on people’s likelihood of walking instead of using transport. But this study examined how likely people are to pick a more challenging route over a conventional one and which design characteristics influenced their choices.

Lead author, Anna Boldina, from the University of Cambridge’s Department of Architecture, said: “Even when the increase in level and extent of activity level is modest, when millions of people are using cityscapes every day, those differences can have a major positive impact on public health.”

“Our findings show that pedestrians can be nudged into a wider range of physical activities through minor changes to the urban landscape. We want to help policy makers and designers to make modifications that will improve physical health and wellbeing.”

Boldina began this research after moving from Coimbra in Portugal – where she found herself climbing hills and ancient walls – to London, which she found far less physically challenging.

Working with Dr Paul Hanel from the Department of Psychology at the University of Essex, and Prof. Koen Steemers from Cambridge, Boldina invited almost 600 UK residents to compare photorealistic images of challenging routes – variously incorporating steppingstones, balancing beams, and high steps – with conventional pavements.

Participants were shown images of challenging and conventional tarmac routes and asked which route they would choose. The researchers tested out a range of encouraging / discouraging parameters in different scenarios, including crossing water, shortcuts, unusual sculptures and the presence / absence of a handrail and other people. Participants were asked to score how challenging they thought the route would be from 1 (as easy as walking on level tarmac) to 7 (I would not be able to do it).

Eighty per cent of the study’s participants opted for a challenging route in at least one of the scenarios, depending on perceived level of difficulty and design characteristics. Where a challenging option was shorter than a conventional route, this increased the likelihood of being chosen by 10%. The presence of handrails achieved a 12% rise.

Importance for health

The WHO and NHS recommend at least 150 minutes of ‘moderate’ or 75 minutes of ‘vigorous’ activity spread over a week, including a variety of activities aimed at enhancing bones, muscles, and agility to stay healthy. In addition, adults over 65 are advised to perform strength, flexibility, and balance exercises.

Boldina said: “The human body is a very complex machine that needs a lot of things to keep working effectively. Cycling and swimming are great for your heart and for your leg muscles but do very little for your bone density.”

“To improve cardiovascular health, bone density and balance all at once, we need to add a wider range of exercises into our routine daily walks.”

Psychology of choice

Co-author Dr Paul Hanel said: “Children don’t need much encouragement to try out a balance beam but we wanted to see how adults would respond, and then identify design modifications which made them more likely to choose a challenging route.”

“We found that while embarrassment, anxiety, caution and peer pressure can put some adults off, the vast majority of people can be persuaded to take a more challenging route by paying careful attention to design, safety, difficulty level, location and signage.”

The proportion of participants who were willing to pick a more challenging route varied from 14% for a particular balance beam route to 78% for a route involving wide, low stepping stones and a log with a handrail. The least intimidating routes were found to be those with wide, steady-looking balancing beams and wide steppingstones, especially with the presence of handrails.

The researchers suggest that routes that incorporate more difficult challenges, such as obstacle courses and narrow balancing beams, should be placed in areas more likely to be frequented by younger users.

The participants expressed a range of reasons for picking challenging routes. Unsurprisingly, the study found that challenging routes which also acted as short cuts appealed. Up to 55% of participants chose such routes. The researchers also found that the design of pavements, lighting and flowerbeds, as well as signage helped to nudge participants to choose more challenging routes. Many participants (40%) said the sight of other people taking a challenging route encouraged them to do the same.

The participants who picked conventional routes often had concerns about safety but the introduction of safety measures, such as handrails, increased uptake of some routes. Handrails next to one steppingstones route increased uptake by 12%.

To test whether tendency to choose challenging routes was linked to demographic and personality factors, participants were asked to answer questions about their age, gender, habits, health, occupation, and personality traits (such as sensation seeking or general anxiety).

The researchers found that people of all levels of activity are equally likely to pick a challenging route. But for the most difficult routes, participants who regularly engaged in strength and balancing exercises were more likely to choose them.

Older participants were as supportive of the concept as younger ones but were less likely to opt for the more challenging routes for themselves. Nevertheless, across all age groups, only a small percentage of participants said they would avoid adventurous options completely.

The study applies the idea of “Choice Architecture” (making good choices easier and less beneficial choices harder) plus “Fun theory”, a strategy whereby physical activity is made more exciting; as well as some of the key principles of persuasion: social proof, liking, authority, and consistency.

Future work

The researchers hope to run experiments in physical test sites to see how intentions convert into behaviour, and to measure how changes in habits improve health. In the meantime, Dr Boldina continues to present her findings to policy makers.

Critics might question the affordability and cost effectiveness of introducing ‘Active landscape routes’ in the current economic environment.

In response, the researchers argue that installing stepping stones in a turfed area can be cheaper than laying and maintaining conventional tarmac pavements. They also point out that these measures could save governments far greater sums by reducing demand for health care related to lack of exercise.

Reference

A. Boldina et al., ‘Active Landscape and Choice Architecture: Encouraging the use of challenging city routes for fitness’, Landscape Research (2022). DOI: 10.1080/01426397.2022.2142204

Media contact

Tom Almeroth-Williams, Communications Manager (Research), University of Cambridge: researchcommunications@admin.cam.ac.uk / tel: +44 (0) 7540 139 444


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International

Tesla’s Chinese Rivals Set New Records

Tesla’s Chinese EV rivals are putting pressure on the market leader with monthly records.

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Tesla's Chinese EV rivals are putting pressure on the market leader with monthly records.

Tesla's competition in the electric vehicle market has been heating up over the past two years as more EV manufacturers ramp up production and deliveries.

Elon Musk's Austin, Texas-based company has seen its share of the EV market shrink from about 79% in 2020 to 75.8% in June 2022 to about 65% today as rival automakers continue to ramp up their factories.

Tesla  (TSLA) - Get Free Report still has a lot of good news to report through the first three quarters of 2022, as it is well on its way to delivering 1 million EVs with 908,000 delivered in the year through Sept. 30 after delivering 343,000 in the third quarter. The company also rolled out its newest EV on Dec. 1 with the delivery of its Semi Trucks.

While Tesla's top competitors in the U.S. hold small percentages of the market -- Ford  (F) - Get Free Report, 7%; Kia, 5%; Chevrolet, 4%, Hyundai, 4% -- these companies and smaller ones are setting records at delivering EVs as they increase production.

Ford reported in November that it had a 103% year-over-year increase in EV sales. Kia in the same month said it had a 133% increase in sales year-over-year. Volkswagen reported in November that it had reached its delivery benchmark of 500,000 units a year earlier than expected after recording  a 25% year-over-year increase in deliveries in October.

Shutterstock

Pressure from Chinese Rivals

Tesla is seeing increased pressure coming from China, and not just from covid pandemic-related restrictions and factory closures. Chinese rivals Nio  (NIO) - Get Free Report, Li Auto  (LI) - Get Free Report, and BYD all had impressive numbers for November.

BYD reported that it sold 113,915 fully electric vehicles in November, which was a 147% increase year-over-year. It also sold 116,027 plug-in hybrids, which was a 164% year-over-year increase.

Nio on Dec. 1 reported it delivered 14,178 vehicles in November, a new record-high delivery amount, for an increase of 30.3% year-over-year. Cumulative deliveries of Nio vehicles reached 273,741 as of Nov. 30.

Nio's November deliveries consisted of 8,003 premium smart electric SUVs including 4,897 ES7s, and 6,175 premium smart electric sedans including 3,207 ET7s and 2,968 ET5s.

Nio said that it plans to further accelerate production and delivery in December.

Li Auto on Dec. 1 said that it delivered a record-high 15,034 EVs in November for an 11.5% year-over-year increase. Cumulative deliveries through November reached 236,101.

Li Auto SUV Sales

“We set another monthly record with 15,034 deliveries in November," Yanan Shen, co-founder and president of Li Auto said in a statement "In particular, Li L9 has been the sales champion of full-size SUVs in China for two consecutive months since it commenced delivery, establishing it as a top choice for six-seat full-size family SUVs in China."

Shen said that the Li L9 SUV in November received the highest safety rating for tests on the driver and passenger sides from the China Insurance Automotive Safety Index.   

NIO and Tencent Holdings on Nov. 28 entered into a strategic cooperation agreement to further deepen partnership in the areas of autonomous driving related cloud services, intelligent driving maps and digital ecosystem to provide users with experiences beyond expectation, according to a statement.

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