Will a 40-year low in unemployment help the Liberals win re-election?

May 14 14:05 2019 Print This Article



Politics in Canada

The economic news last week was welcome. Canada has hit a 40-year low in unemployment, according to a Statistics Canada report released May 10.

The Liberal Party -- trailing the Conservative opposition by a big six-point margin in opinion polling -- wants to make some political gains from the strong job creation numbers: over 100,000 new jobs in April.

Expect to hear a lot about how the Liberal government has managed the economy so as to benefit Canadians, from now until the October 21 federal election.

Political science research suggests that governments can lose elections when unemployment numbers go up sharply while they hold power.

Unfortunately for Justin Trudeau, it has not been shown that governments win because unemployment is low.

Focusing on job creation does make political sense for all political parties because economic security is a major voter preoccupation.

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