Q4 GDP Forecasts

Nov 09 18:11 2018 Print This Article

From Merrill Lynch:We continue to track 3.7% for 3Q GDP and 2.8% for 4Q. [Nov 9 estimate].emphasis added

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNowThe GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.9 percent on November 9, unchanged from November 2. The nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to fourth-quarter real GDP growth inched down from -0.05 percentage points to -0.08 percentage points after this morning's Producer Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and this morning's wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau. [Nov 9 estimate]From the NY Fed Nowcasting ReportThe New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2018:Q4 stands at 2.7%. News from this week's data releases increased the nowcast for 2018:Q4 by 0.1 percentage point. A positive surprise from producer prices data accounted for most of the increase.[Nov 9 estimate]CR Note: These early estimates suggest GDP in the high 2s for Q4.

Read More

About Article Author

Calculated Risk

A full time blogger, Bill McBride retired as a senior executive from a small public company in the '90s. Mr. McBride holds an MBA from the University of California, Irvine, and has a background in management, finance and economics.

Related Items

Week Ahead: Nifty has multiple overhead resistances to deal with in this short week

The Indian Equity Markets spent the entire week on expected lines. The previous week was expected to be turbulent, and the zone of 10600-10750 was set to pose stiff resistance to the Markets and on these analyzed lines, the NIFTY continued to remain volatile all throughout the week. The benchmark I ...

You Really CAN Make Money in a Rough Market Environment

The quarter beginning 10-1-18 has been challenging for a lot of traders. The NASDAQ has lost almost 10% while the S&P has lost 6%, both well off the quarter's low. Volatility has reigned with the VIX at elevated levels for most of the quarter. It has been challenging for us at EarningsBeats as well ...

DP Weekly Wrap: Does SPY Have Bullish Reverse H&S? Gold Sentiment Is Looking Contrarian

A lot of people are seeing a reverse head and shoulders pattern developing, and it is really not hard to spot. From Friday's close, it will take a rally of a little less than 3% for price to reach the neckline. Add another 4.5% and new, all-time highs will be made. Some indicators favoring a positi ...

Schedule for Week of November 18, 2018

The key economic reports this week are October Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales.Happy Thanksgiving!----- Monday, Nov 19th ----- 10:00 AM: The November NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of  68, unchanged from 68. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales ...

TFMR Podcast - Friday, November 16

With TF The old TFMR adage of "it's not how you begin the week that matters, it's how you end it" has rarely been more accurate than it was this week. Monday looked and felt horrible but, by the close today, we're feeling pretty good. And why? Because we're beginning to look ahead at 2019 and ...

Dollar Lower Ahead of Crucial Week for Brexit and Italian Budget

The US dollar is weaker across the board on Friday. The comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Vice-Chair Richard Clarida on interest rates nearing a neutral rate were dollar negative. Rising optimism about the US-China trade disagreement also depreciated the greenback as investors exited the safe have ...

Have we seen the bottom in Gold? David Brady (16/11/2018)

Nov 16, 2018 Gold initially began its bounce on Wednesday on the back of news that China hawk Peter Navarro had been muzzled by the White House and there were ongoing trade discussions between China and the U.S. at all levels of government. The same evening, Fed Chair Powell made some statements th ...

Its Like 1999 All Over Again For TSX Venture $CDNX Investors

I would never of thought it but its like 20 years have gone by and TSX Venture investors are at same value as 1999.  At that time copper was under 75 cents a pound.  Now its close to $3 per lb.  Gold was under $300 now its above $1200. The junior mining space is the cheapest its ever been and I ...