Q4 GDP Forecasts

Nov 09 18:11 2018 Print This Article

From Merrill Lynch:We continue to track 3.7% for 3Q GDP and 2.8% for 4Q. [Nov 9 estimate].emphasis added

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNowThe GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.9 percent on November 9, unchanged from November 2. The nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to fourth-quarter real GDP growth inched down from -0.05 percentage points to -0.08 percentage points after this morning's Producer Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and this morning's wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau. [Nov 9 estimate]From the NY Fed Nowcasting ReportThe New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2018:Q4 stands at 2.7%. News from this week's data releases increased the nowcast for 2018:Q4 by 0.1 percentage point. A positive surprise from producer prices data accounted for most of the increase.[Nov 9 estimate]CR Note: These early estimates suggest GDP in the high 2s for Q4.

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Calculated Risk

A full time blogger, Bill McBride retired as a senior executive from a small public company in the '90s. Mr. McBride holds an MBA from the University of California, Irvine, and has a background in management, finance and economics.

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