Moderate US Growth Expected In This Week’s Q4 GDP Report

Jan 28 12:01 2020 Print This Article

The coronavirus that’s roiling China and beyond is creating uncertainty about global economic activity in early 2020, but this week’s initial estimate of US GDP for last year’s fourth quarter is on track to post a gain that’s comparable to Q3’s moderate rise.

Output is expected to show a 2.1% gain in Thursday’s GDP report (Jan. 30), based on a median nowcast for a set of estimates compiled by The Capital Spectator. The projection matches Q3’s increase, which suggests that recession risk is still low as a softer-but-stable run of economic activity prevails.

Today’s revised Q4 estimate marks an improvement over the previous 1.8% median nowcast for 2019’s final three months, published on Jan. 8. Note, too, that Econoday.com’s consensus point forecast for Thursday’s release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis is also 2.1%.

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About Article Author

The Capital Spectator

CapitalSpectator.com is a finance/investment/economics blog that’s edited by James Picerno. The site’s focus is macroeconomics, the business cycle and portfolio strategy (with an emphasis on asset allocation and related analytics). In late-2009, the Eastern Economics Journal named Picerno as one of the nation’s “top economics bloggers”. Picerno is the author of Dynamic Asset Allocation: Modern Portfolio Theory Updated for the Smart Investor (Bloomberg Press, 2010) and Nowcasting The Business Cycle: A Practical Guide For Spotting Business Cycle Peaks (Beta Publishing, 2014). His articles on finance and economics have appeared in a variety of publications and news outlets over the years, including The Atlantic, Financial Advisor, BankRate.com, HorsesMouth.com, and Bloomberg Briefs: Economics. He also pens a daily economics column for the Saxo Group’s TradingFloor.com web site. Picerno has been writing about investing and macroeconomics since the early 1990s at Bloomberg, Dow Jones and other media groups before becoming an independent writer/analyst in 2008. He also offers consulting services on asset allocation and portfolio strategy, the US business cycle, and related data analytics in R and Excel.

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