Is a U.S. recession inevitable?

Sep 10 20:09 2019 Print This Article

The yield curve has been a constant topic of conversation among investors since mid-August, when the 2-year/10-year Treasury curve briefly inverted and launched furious speculation that a recession may be around the corner.  The same holds true among Invesco’s market strategists, who have been debating what an inverted yield curve means and whether a recession is indeed inevitable.

Below, Brian Levitt, Invesco’s Global Market Strategist for North America, and Talley Léger, an Invesco Investment Strategist who specializes in the equity markets, compare their views on the state of the markets today.

Are markets fulfilling their own prophecy?

Brian: Did the yield curve inversion keep you up at night?  Let’s be honest, it’s been a pretty good signal of recessions in the past.  I’ve always told investors that recessions are the results of policy mistakes, and that I expect an inverted yield curve to be the first visible symptom of such a policy mistake.  Trade uncertainty seems to be grinding business investment to a halt.  Yet, every ounce of my being is telling me that this would all change with a shift in tone from the Trump administration.

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Trimark Investments Blog

As one of Canada’s leading investment management companies, Trimark Investments is singularly focused on putting investors' interests first. Invesco Canada offers a diversified suite of investment solutions to investors across the country and around the world. The blog is comprised of portfolio managers, who are often asked about their views on various investment-, market- and economy-related topics and how these views impact investment decisions. Trimark Investment blog intends to answer the questions Invesco Canada is frequently asked.

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