Gene Inger: Gene Inger's Daily Briefing - August 2, 2019

Aug 02 23:08 2019 Print This Article

A 'transition phase' - from a market rising on the back of a presumption of a series of Fed rate cuts, this would indeed would seem to be what's underway. Both a rapid decline and partial rebound yesterday, followed by today's smart rally as the Fed Chairman further clarified the possibility of a mini-rate cut series as ongoing, certainly were embraced as contributing to the expected rebound. As we also suggested, there was a subsequent 'fade' last night (after the rebound); it really is impossible to say how extensive it would have been absent that tweet on China regarding additional tariffs to be imposed effective September 1. But, in any event, all of this is within the context of our ongoing summer forecast (for new members that was from late May: up into early-mid-July, then rotational corrections with a defensive bias for some weeks if not months, barring for-sure successful breakthroughs on the trade-front; more so than the Fed).

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