FOMC Preview

Sep 15 13:09 2019 Print This Article

The consensus is the FOMC will cut the Fed Funds rate 25 bps to a range of 1.75% to 2.0% at the meeting this week.  A 50 bps cut is not impossible, but seems unlikely at this meeting.A key will be if the FOMC signals another rate cut in October.  The hints could be in the press conference, or in the dot plot.Revisions to the economic projections will probably be minor, and the statement will probably be mostly unchanged from July.Here are the June FOMC projections.Q1 real GDP growth was at 3.1% annualized, and Q2 at 2.0%.   Currently most analysts are projecting around 1.5% to 2% in Q3.  So the GDP projections will probably be little changed.

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents

Change inReal GDP1

2019

2020

2021

Jun 2019

2.0 to 2.2

1.8 to 2.0

1.8 to 2.0

Mar 2019

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About Article Author

Calculated Risk

A full time blogger, Bill McBride retired as a senior executive from a small public company in the '90s. Mr. McBride holds an MBA from the University of California, Irvine, and has a background in management, finance and economics.

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