FOMC Preview

Sep 15 13:09 2019 Print This Article

The consensus is the FOMC will cut the Fed Funds rate 25 bps to a range of 1.75% to 2.0% at the meeting this week.  A 50 bps cut is not impossible, but seems unlikely at this meeting.A key will be if the FOMC signals another rate cut in October.  The hints could be in the press conference, or in the dot plot.Revisions to the economic projections will probably be minor, and the statement will probably be mostly unchanged from July.Here are the June FOMC projections.Q1 real GDP growth was at 3.1% annualized, and Q2 at 2.0%.   Currently most analysts are projecting around 1.5% to 2% in Q3.  So the GDP projections will probably be little changed.

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents

Change inReal GDP1




Jun 2019

2.0 to 2.2

1.8 to 2.0

1.8 to 2.0

Mar 2019

Read More

About Article Author

Calculated Risk

A full time blogger, Bill McBride retired as a senior executive from a small public company in the '90s. Mr. McBride holds an MBA from the University of California, Irvine, and has a background in management, finance and economics.


Related Items

US Open – China GDP falls to 6%, Turkey’s win, Brexit Vote looms, Oil rises, Gold stuck in range

US stocks and the dollar little changed in early Friday trade despite a worse than expected third-quarter GDP reading from China and heightened uncertainty regarding how Brexit will unfold over the weekend and a temporary cease-fire between Turkey and Syria.  Asian markets sold off after China’ ...

Macro Briefing | 18 October 2019

Turkey agrees to temporarily halt military operations in Syria: WSJUK Parliament expected to reject Johnson’s new Brexit deal on Saturday: CNBCChina’s Q3 annual economic growth slows to 6.0%–lowest in decades: CNBCA variety of financial risks from climate change are lurking: SF FedHousing sta ...

Tech Talk for Friday October 18th 2019

  European and Emerging Markets move higher Short term breakouts by the Eurozone ETF and the Emerging Markets ETF! Weakness in the U.S. Dollar contributed to their strength   StockTwits released yesterday @EquityClock India ETN $PIN moved above $24.49 extending an intermediate uptrend. Blackro ...

China growth below forecast

  Worst growth on record The Chinese economy grew 6.0% y/y in the third quarter, a slowdown from Q2’s +6.2% and the weakest growth on record going back to 1995. Quarter-on-quarter growth slowed to 1.5% y/y but was in line with economists’ estimates. In the subsequent press conference, the Sta ...

Scary Like Monday Morning

Most of us are probably not as enthused by Monday mornings, as we are waking up late on Sunday mornings; let’s be honest. Another five days, (plus emails and productive out of hours “conference calls”), of graft at the dystopian coal face of the financial markets, lies ahead. Not being a pur ...

US Open – Brexit Deal Rally seems short-lived, Earnings, Oil, Gold, Bitcoin

It was not expected to happen today, but a Brexit deal got hammered out.  PM Boris Johnson got the job done and now he needs to survive the Parliamentary arithmetic.  Johnson needs 320 votes to get his deal through the House of Commons.  Johnson will have just under 259 votes in the bag as Cons ...

Is Your Investment Strategy Making Unintentional Factor Bets?

Factor investing has become a core part of the investment zeitgeist over the last decade or so, but as a practical matter investors sometimes have a hard time exploiting these risk factors in portfolios. That’s the conclusion of a recent study by BlackRock that analyzes 10,000 portfolios. That ...