China growth below forecast

Oct 18 04:10 2019 Print This Article


Worst growth on record

The Chinese economy grew 6.0% y/y in the third quarter, a slowdown from Q2’s +6.2% and the weakest growth on record going back to 1995. Quarter-on-quarter growth slowed to 1.5% y/y but was in line with economists’ estimates.

In the subsequent press conference, the Statistics Bureau acknowledged that the domestic economy faces a complex and serious situation amid a rise in external uncertainties. Net exports made up 19.6% of the year-to-date growth while capital formation contributed 19.8%. It put a brave face on the numbers, saying it felt the policy measures already in place were starting to filter through into the economy and was certain stable growth could be maintained into Q4.


Industrial production beats estimates

In other data released at the same time, September industrial production rose 5.8% y/y, beating expectations of 5.0% and the quickest expansion in three months. Retail sales for the same month were bang in line with forecasts, rising 7.8% y/y, a faster pace than August’s +7.5%. Fixed asset investment rose 5.4% y/y year-to-date, matching economists’ predictions but a slight slowdown from the +5.5% seen in August.

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