Chicago Fed: Summary of 2019 Results and 2020 Forecasts

Jan 13 19:01 2020 Print This Article

It is always interesting to see the consensus outlook. The Chicago Fed held an Economic Outlook Symposium in December with more than 140 economists and analysts, and they just published the 2020 Forecasts.   Note that the consensus always misses turning points, but I don't expect a recession in 2020 either.The consensus is for real GDP to increase 1.7% Q4 over Q4 in 2020 (my view is GDP growth will be a little higher than the consensus). The consensus is the unemployment rate will be at 3.7% in Q4 2020 (my view is the unemployment rate will be lower).The consensus is that housing starts will increase slightly to 1.28 million in 2020 (my view is starts will be somewhat higher).Unfortunately they didn't forecast employment growth - I expect employment growth to slow further in 2020.

Read More

About Article Author

Calculated Risk

A full time blogger, Bill McBride retired as a senior executive from a small public company in the '90s. Mr. McBride holds an MBA from the University of California, Irvine, and has a background in management, finance and economics.

Related Items

Q4 GDP Forecasts: 1.2% to 2.2%

The preliminary estimate of Q4 GDP will be released on Thursday, January 30th. The consensus is that annualized real GDP increased 2.2% in Q4.From Merrill Lynch We expect GDP growth in 4Q to hold steady at 2.0% qoq saar. [Jan 24 estimate]emphasis added From the NY Fed Nowcasting ReportThe New York F ...

Pond Technologies to Satisfy Cross Pond Ventures LLC Debt with Issuance of Pond Shares

MARKHAM, ON, Jan. 24, 2020 /CNW/ – Pond Technologies Holdings Inc. (“Pond”) (TSX.V: POND) (OTC: IOGIF) announced today that its strategic project development partner, Cross Pond Ventures LLC, (“Cross Pond”), has agreed to have certain amounts owing under its Master Project Development Agr ...

Closest Ever: Bulletin of Atomic Scientists Adjusts Doomsday Clock 100 Seconds From Midnight - Nathan Mcdonald (24/01/2020)

January 24,2020 Unfortunately, the news of late has been one bad thing after another, with geopolitical situations around the globe continuing to either deteriorate or simply flounder in their current degraded state, with little to no improvement in sight. The situation with North Korea, which sa ...

Oops! They QE’d Again

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has gone back to expanding its balance sheet. Some claim that quantitative easing (QE) is back; the Fed denies it. What we call it isn’t the point, says Sonal Desai, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO—what matters are the implications of this “permanently loose” ...

The Korelin Economics Report with OANDA discussing a call for caution with US equities

Ed Moya, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA joins Cory Fleck to recap the strong start tech stocks are having in this second week of earnings season. Moya highlights it’s another bullish point for the markets however there are a number of bearish events that are hanging around where the market has ...

Asia Midday: Coronavirus Steals The Headlines

Coronavirus continues to steal the world’s headlines, with Chinese authorities quarantining additional cities around Wuhan. Chinese New Year public festivities were cancelled across the mainland and Hong Kong, with even Jackie Chan’s latest movie release, postponed. Mainland stock markets had ...

The Seemingly Unstoppable US Stock Market?

Jeff Cox of CNBC reports the stock market just set another record, this one going back to 1972:The seemingly unstoppable U.S. stock market continues to set new records, with the latest standard a trend that hasn’t been beaten since 1972.One gauge closely watched by traders is where the market is ...

BLS: December Unemployment rates at New Series Lows in Eight States

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary Unemployment rates were lower in December in 11 states, higher in 4 states, and stable in 35 statesand the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Eight states had jobless rate decreases from a yea ...