BCE.PR.Q : Convert or Hold?

Sep 11 03:09 2018 Print This Article

It will be recalled that BCE.PR.Q will reset at 4.812% effective September 30.

BCE.PR.Q is a FixedReset that came into being through an Exchange from BAF.PR.E which in turn commenced trading 2013-2-14 as a FixedReset, 4.25%+264, after being announced 2013-1-30.

The most logical way to analyze the question of whether or not to convert is through the theory of Preferred Pairs, for which a calculator is available. Briefly, a Strong Pair is defined as a pair of securities that can be interconverted in the future (e.g., BCE.PR.Q and the FloatingReset that will exist if enough holders convert). Since they will be interconvertible on this future date, it may be assumed that they will be priced identically on this date (if they aren’t then holders will simply convert en masse to the higher-priced issue). And since they will be priced identically on a given date in the future, any current difference in price must be offset by expectations of an equal and opposite value of dividends to be received in the interim. And since the dividend rate on one element of the pair is both fixed and known, the implied average rate of the other, floating rate, instrument can be determined. Finally, we say, we may compare these average rates and take a view regarding the actual future course of that rate relative to the implied rate, which will provide us with guidance on which element of the pair is likely to outperform the other until the next interconversion date, at which time the process will be repeated.

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About Article Author

PrefBlog

PrefBlog is presented as a public service by Hymas Investment Management Inc., Manager / Trustee of Malachite Aggressive Preferred Fundand publisher of PrefLetter, a monthly newsletter directed towards long term buy-and-hold retail investors. James Hymas, president of Hymas Investment Management Inc, with years of experience designing quantitative investment technology and applying this technology to conservative portfolios, seeks to provide institutions and retail investors with the information and advice necessary to produce top quartile returns in the preferred share market without the assumption of excess risk.

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