The Capital Spectator

CapitalSpectator.com is a finance/investment/economics blog that’s edited by James Picerno. The site’s focus is macroeconomics, the business cycle and portfolio strategy (with an emphasis on asset allocation and related analytics). In late-2009, the Eastern Economics Journal named Picerno as one of the nation’s “top economics bloggers”. Picerno is the author of Dynamic Asset Allocation: Modern Portfolio Theory Updated for the Smart Investor (Bloomberg Press, 2010) and Nowcasting The Business Cycle: A Practical Guide For Spotting Business Cycle Peaks (Beta Publishing, 2014). His articles on finance and economics have appeared in a variety of publications and news outlets over the years, including The Atlantic, Financial Advisor, BankRate.com, HorsesMouth.com, and Bloomberg Briefs: Economics. He also pens a daily economics column for the Saxo Group’s TradingFloor.com web site. Picerno has been writing about investing and macroeconomics since the early 1990s at Bloomberg, Dow Jones and other media groups before becoming an independent writer/analyst in 2008. He also offers consulting services on asset allocation and portfolio strategy, the US business cycle, and related data analytics in R and Excel.

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Authors

Awards & Publications

Books: Dynamic Asset Allocation: Modern Portfolio Theory Updated for the Smart Investor (Bloomberg Press, 2010) Nowcasting The Business Cycle: A Practical Guide For Spotting Business Cycle Peaks (Beta Publishing, 2014)

Latest Articles

US Business Cycle Risk Report | 18 July 2019

How slow can it go before slipping into recession? Economic growth in the US has decelerated in recent months and there are new signs in today’s update that the macro trend is at risk of continuing to lose speed (gradually) in the months ahead. Th...

Macro Briefing: 18 July 2019

Ebola outbreak in Congo declared a global health emergency: APUS-China trade talks stuck in neutral: WSJUS preparing to send troops to Saudi Arabia as Iran tensions rise: CNNHouse kills impeachment vote on Trump: The HillGDPNow estimate of US Q2 gro...

Fed Chair Powell Vows To Support The US Expansion

It was far from the equivalent of Mario Draghi’s muscular “whatever it takes” comment in 2012, when the European Central Bank president famously outlined his resolve to save the euro. Yesterday’s comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Po...

Macro Briefing: 17 July 2019

Will Washington sanction Turkey over Russian arms deal? CNBCBig tech faced tough questions in Congress on Tuesday: APChina and Vietnam remain in standoff over South China Sea dispute: ReutersJapan-South Korea trade battle escalates: CNBCAmazon faces...

Is Manufacturing’s Potency Fading For US Business Cycle Analysis?

There are no silver bullets in the search for early warnings of economic recession, but manufacturing activity has long been on the short list of key variables to watch. No surprise, given the mostly reliable tendency of output to stumble in this co...