Calculated Risk

A full time blogger, Bill McBride retired as a senior executive from a small public company in the '90s. Mr. McBride holds an MBA from the University of California, Irvine, and has a background in management, finance and economics.

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“If you only follow one economics blog, it has to be Calculated Risk, run by Bill McBride. The site provides concise and very accessible summaries of all the key economic data and developments. One of the reasons McBride is able to do this so well is that he has an almost uncanny knack of recognizing which facts really matter. He began the blog in 2005 because he saw a disaster brewing in the form of the housing bubble, and tried his best to warn the rest of us of what was coming. I've followed him closely ever since, and I don't know if he's ever been wrong. My advice is, if you've come up with a different conclusion from McBride on how economic developments are going to unfold, you'd be wise to think it over again!” Professor James Hamilton, Economics, University of California, San Diego

Latest Articles

Update: The Failed Promises of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA)

Yesterday I wrote: The Failed Promises of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA)I included this quote:"This change, along with a lower business tax rate, would likely give the typical American household around a $4,000 pay raise." Donald Trump, Octobe...

Existing Home Sales: Lawler vs. the Consensus

The NAR is scheduled to release Existing Home Sales for July at 10:00 AM tomorrow (Wednesday, Aug 20th).The consensus is for 5.39 million SAAR, up from 5.27 million in June. Housing economist Tom Lawler estimates the NAR will report sales of 5.40 mil...

30 Year Fixed Mortgage: 3.5% to 3.625%

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Hold Relatively Steady Despite Bond Market WeaknessMortgage rates mostly held steady today, despite a move higher in broader interest rate indicators like the 10yr Treasury yield. Treasuries ...

Housing Inventory Tracking

Update: Watching existing home "for sale" inventory is very helpful. As an example, the increase in inventory in late 2005 helped me call the top for housing.And the decrease in inventory eventually helped me correctly call the bottom for house price...

Los Angeles Area Home Sales Unchanged YoY in July, Inventory Down 1% YoY

From Pacific Union chief economist Selma Hepp: How are lower interest rates impacting Los Angeles housing markets?After a large dip in housing market activity starting in the last quarter of 2018 and first quarter of 2019, housing markets in recent m...