Calculated Risk

A full time blogger, Bill McBride retired as a senior executive from a small public company in the '90s. Mr. McBride holds an MBA from the University of California, Irvine, and has a background in management, finance and economics.

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“If you only follow one economics blog, it has to be Calculated Risk, run by Bill McBride. The site provides concise and very accessible summaries of all the key economic data and developments. One of the reasons McBride is able to do this so well is that he has an almost uncanny knack of recognizing which facts really matter. He began the blog in 2005 because he saw a disaster brewing in the form of the housing bubble, and tried his best to warn the rest of us of what was coming. I've followed him closely ever since, and I don't know if he's ever been wrong. My advice is, if you've come up with a different conclusion from McBride on how economic developments are going to unfold, you'd be wise to think it over again!” Professor James Hamilton, Economics, University of California, San Diego

Latest Articles

Schedule for Week of January 20th

Special Note on Government Shutdown: If the Government shutdown continues, then some additional releases will be delayed. For example, this coming week, the new home sales and durable goods reports will not be released if the government remains shut...

Phoenix Real Estate in December: Sales down 9% YoY, Active Inventory up 6% YoY

This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports ("Stats Report"):1) Overall sales declined to 6,403 from 7,070 in December...

Q4 GDP Forecasts: Mid-to-High 2s

From Merrill Lynch: 4Q GDP tracking remains at 2.8%. We forecast 1Q GDP growth of 2.2%, but downside risks are emerging due to the government shutdown. [Jan 18 estimate]emphasis added From the NY Fed Nowcasting ReportThe New York Fed Staff Nowcast s...

Consumer Sentiment Declined in January, Lowest since 2006

From the University of Michigan: Preliminary Results for January 2019 Consumer sentiment declined in early January to its lowest level since Trump was elected. The decline was primarily focused on prospects for the domestic economy, with the year-ah...

BLS: Unemployment Rates Higher in 4 states in December; Lower in 3 States

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary Unemployment rates were higher in December in 4 states, lower in 3 states, and stable in 43 states and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. ...