Calculated Risk

A full time blogger, Bill McBride retired as a senior executive from a small public company in the '90s. Mr. McBride holds an MBA from the University of California, Irvine, and has a background in management, finance and economics.

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“If you only follow one economics blog, it has to be Calculated Risk, run by Bill McBride. The site provides concise and very accessible summaries of all the key economic data and developments. One of the reasons McBride is able to do this so well is that he has an almost uncanny knack of recognizing which facts really matter. He began the blog in 2005 because he saw a disaster brewing in the form of the housing bubble, and tried his best to warn the rest of us of what was coming. I've followed him closely ever since, and I don't know if he's ever been wrong. My advice is, if you've come up with a different conclusion from McBride on how economic developments are going to unfold, you'd be wise to think it over again!” Professor James Hamilton, Economics, University of California, San Diego

Latest Articles

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 16 MarchThe U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 10-16 March 2019, according to data from STR.In comparison wi...

Schedule for Week of March 24, 2019

The key reports this week are the third estimate of Q4 GDP, February Housing Starts and New Home Sales.Other key reports include Case-Shiller house prices, and Personal Income for February, and Personal Outlays for January.For manufacturing, the Marc...

Q1 GDP Forecasts: Around 1%

From Goldman Sachs: We boosted our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by three tenths to +0.7% (qoq ar). However ... we lowered our past-quarter GDP tracking estimate for Q4 by two tenths to +2.1%. [March 22 estimate]emphasis added From the NY Fed Nowcasting R...

BLS: Unemployment Rates at New Series Lows in Alabama, North Dakota, Tennesse and Vermont

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary Unemployment rates were lower in February in 4 states and stable in 46 states and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. ... Iowa, New Hampshi...

Comments on February Existing Home Sales

Earlier: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 5.51 million in FebruaryA few key points:1) Seasonally February is one of the weakest months of the year for existing home sales (See Not Seasonally Adjusted NSA graph below).  Since existing home sales...