Calculated Risk

A full time blogger, Bill McBride retired as a senior executive from a small public company in the '90s. Mr. McBride holds an MBA from the University of California, Irvine, and has a background in management, finance and economics.

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“If you only follow one economics blog, it has to be Calculated Risk, run by Bill McBride. The site provides concise and very accessible summaries of all the key economic data and developments. One of the reasons McBride is able to do this so well is that he has an almost uncanny knack of recognizing which facts really matter. He began the blog in 2005 because he saw a disaster brewing in the form of the housing bubble, and tried his best to warn the rest of us of what was coming. I've followed him closely ever since, and I don't know if he's ever been wrong. My advice is, if you've come up with a different conclusion from McBride on how economic developments are going to unfold, you'd be wise to think it over again!” Professor James Hamilton, Economics, University of California, San Diego

Latest Articles

Tuesday: New Home Sales, Case-Shiller House Prices, Yellen Speech and More

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rate Resilience ContinuesMortgage rates held their ground yet again, and are finally starting to look resilient after a relatively sharp move higher over the past 2 weeks.  This was true even bef...

Duy: "Has The Fed Abandoned Its Reaction Function?"

From economist Tim Duy at FedWatch: Has The Fed Abandoned Its Reaction Function? The immediate policy outcomes of the FOMC meeting were largely as expected. Central bankers left interest rates unchanged while announcing that the reduction of the bala...

Dallas Fed: "Growth in Texas Manufacturing Activity Holds Steady" in September

From the Dallas Fed: Growth in Texas Manufacturing Activity Holds SteadyTexas factory activity continued to increase in September, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key meas...

Black Knight: House Price Index up 0.5% in July, Up 6.2% year-over-year

Note: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, Black Knight, Zillow, FHFA, FNC and more). Note: Black Knight uses the current month closings only (not a three month average like Case-Shiller or a weighted average like CoreLogic)...

Chicago Fed "Index points to slower economic growth in August"

From the Chicago Fed: Index points to slower economic growth in AugustLed by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) moved down to –0.31 in August from +0.03 in July. Two of the four broad categori...