Calculated Risk

A full time blogger, Bill McBride retired as a senior executive from a small public company in the '90s. Mr. McBride holds an MBA from the University of California, Irvine, and has a background in management, finance and economics.

Visit Blog

Authors

Testimonials

“If you only follow one economics blog, it has to be Calculated Risk, run by Bill McBride. The site provides concise and very accessible summaries of all the key economic data and developments. One of the reasons McBride is able to do this so well is that he has an almost uncanny knack of recognizing which facts really matter. He began the blog in 2005 because he saw a disaster brewing in the form of the housing bubble, and tried his best to warn the rest of us of what was coming. I've followed him closely ever since, and I don't know if he's ever been wrong. My advice is, if you've come up with a different conclusion from McBride on how economic developments are going to unfold, you'd be wise to think it over again!” Professor James Hamilton, Economics, University of California, San Diego

Latest Articles

Schedule for Week of November 18, 2018

The key economic reports this week are October Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales.Happy Thanksgiving!----- Monday, Nov 19th ----- 10:00 AM: The November NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of  68, unchanged from 68. Any numbe...

Phoenix Real Estate in October: Sales down 1% YoY, Active Inventory down 5% YoY

This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports ("Stats Report"):1) Overall sales declined to 7,182 from 7,268 in October ...

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in OctoberBased on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports from across the country released through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Assoc...

NY Fed Q3 Report: "Total Household Debt Rises for 17th Straight Quarter"

From the NY Fed: Total Household Debt Rises for 17th Straight QuarterThe Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, which shows that total household debt increase...

Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Growth Edged Higher" in November

From the Kansas City Fed: Growth in Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Edged Higherhe Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the November Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Re...