Calculated Risk

A full time blogger, Bill McBride retired as a senior executive from a small public company in the '90s. Mr. McBride holds an MBA from the University of California, Irvine, and has a background in management, finance and economics.

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“If you only follow one economics blog, it has to be Calculated Risk, run by Bill McBride. The site provides concise and very accessible summaries of all the key economic data and developments. One of the reasons McBride is able to do this so well is that he has an almost uncanny knack of recognizing which facts really matter. He began the blog in 2005 because he saw a disaster brewing in the form of the housing bubble, and tried his best to warn the rest of us of what was coming. I've followed him closely ever since, and I don't know if he's ever been wrong. My advice is, if you've come up with a different conclusion from McBride on how economic developments are going to unfold, you'd be wise to think it over again!” Professor James Hamilton, Economics, University of California, San Diego

Latest Articles

Lawler: Selected Operating Statistics, Large Publicly-Traded Home Builders

Below is a table showing selected operating statistics for eight large, publicly-traded builders for the quarter ended September 30, 2017.From housing economist Tom Lawler:   Net Orders Settlements Average ClosingPrice $ (000s) Qtr. Ended: 9/17...

Comments on October Housing Starts

Last Friday: Housing Starts increased to 1.290 Million Annual Rate in OctoberThe housing starts report released Friday showed starts were up 13.7% in October compared to September, however starts were down 2.9% year-over-year compared to October 2016...

Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of Nov 19, 2017Monday:• No major economic releases scheduled.From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P 500 are down 3, and DOW futures are down 23 (fair value).Oil prices were down over the last week with W...

Sacramento Housing in October: Sales down 5% YoY, Active Inventory up 2% YoY

During the recession, I started following the Sacramento market to look for changes in the mix of houses sold (equity, REOs, and short sales). For several years, not much changed. But in 2012 and 2013, we saw some significant changes with a dramatic ...

Schedule for Week of Nov 19, 2017

The key economic report this week is October existing home sales.Happy Thanksgiving!----- Monday, Nov 20th ----- No economic releases scheduled.----- Tuesday, Nov 21st ----- 8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October. This is a compo...