Calculated Risk

A full time blogger, Bill McBride retired as a senior executive from a small public company in the '90s. Mr. McBride holds an MBA from the University of California, Irvine, and has a background in management, finance and economics.

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“If you only follow one economics blog, it has to be Calculated Risk, run by Bill McBride. The site provides concise and very accessible summaries of all the key economic data and developments. One of the reasons McBride is able to do this so well is that he has an almost uncanny knack of recognizing which facts really matter. He began the blog in 2005 because he saw a disaster brewing in the form of the housing bubble, and tried his best to warn the rest of us of what was coming. I've followed him closely ever since, and I don't know if he's ever been wrong. My advice is, if you've come up with a different conclusion from McBride on how economic developments are going to unfold, you'd be wise to think it over again!” Professor James Hamilton, Economics, University of California, San Diego

Latest Articles

Schedule for Week of October 20, 2019

The key reports this week are September New and Existing Home sales.For manufacturing, the Richmond and Kansas City Fed manufacturing surveys will be released this week.----- Monday, Oct 21st ----- No major economic releases scheduled.----- Tuesday, ...

Q3 GDP Forecasts: Under 2%

From Merrill Lynch: Weak inventories data edged down 3Q GDP tracking by a tenth to 1.5% qoq saar. [Oct 18 estimate]emphasis added From the NY Fed Nowcasting ReportThe New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.9% for 2019:Q3 and 1.1% for 2019:Q4. [Oct 18...

BLS: September Unemployment rates at New Series Lows in Alabama, California, Illinois, New Jersey and South Carolina

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment SummaryUnemployment rates were lower in September in 7 states, higher in 4 states, and stable in 39 states and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. ...

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in September

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in SeptemberBased on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Associat...

LA area Port Traffic Down Year-over-year in September

Special note: The expansion to the Panama Canal was completed in 2016 (As I noted a few years ago), and some of the traffic that used the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach is probably going through the canal. This might be impacting TEUs on the We...