Calculated Risk

A full time blogger, Bill McBride retired as a senior executive from a small public company in the '90s. Mr. McBride holds an MBA from the University of California, Irvine, and has a background in management, finance and economics.

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“If you only follow one economics blog, it has to be Calculated Risk, run by Bill McBride. The site provides concise and very accessible summaries of all the key economic data and developments. One of the reasons McBride is able to do this so well is that he has an almost uncanny knack of recognizing which facts really matter. He began the blog in 2005 because he saw a disaster brewing in the form of the housing bubble, and tried his best to warn the rest of us of what was coming. I've followed him closely ever since, and I don't know if he's ever been wrong. My advice is, if you've come up with a different conclusion from McBride on how economic developments are going to unfold, you'd be wise to think it over again!” Professor James Hamilton, Economics, University of California, San Diego

Latest Articles

Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg, Flow of Funds

Note: The weekly claims report will be for the week ending September 15th. Hurricane Florence impacted the Carolinas starting around September 13th, so there might be some increase in claims due to the hurricane, but it is more likely a bump in claim...

Nine Years Ago: Fast or Sluggish Recovery?

This is my 14th year writing this blog, and sometimes it is fun to look back at earlier predictions.In the early stages of the recovery (September 2009), a number of analysts were predicting a rapid recovery (see: A couple of Bullish Views). My view ...

AIA: "August architecture firm billings rebound"

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: August architecture firm billings rebound as building investment spurt continuesArchitecture firm billings rebounded solidly in August, p...

Comments on August Housing Starts

Earlier: Housing Starts Increased to 1.282 Million Annual Rate in AugustHousing starts in August were above expectations,  and starts for June and July were revised up.  Most of the increase, and upward revisions, were due to the multi-family start...

Housing Starts Increased to 1.282 Million Annual Rate in August

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts:Privately-owned housing starts in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,282,000. This is 9.2 percent above the revised July estimate of 1,174,000 and is 9.4 percen...