Calculated Risk

A full time blogger, Bill McBride retired as a senior executive from a small public company in the '90s. Mr. McBride holds an MBA from the University of California, Irvine, and has a background in management, finance and economics.

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“If you only follow one economics blog, it has to be Calculated Risk, run by Bill McBride. The site provides concise and very accessible summaries of all the key economic data and developments. One of the reasons McBride is able to do this so well is that he has an almost uncanny knack of recognizing which facts really matter. He began the blog in 2005 because he saw a disaster brewing in the form of the housing bubble, and tried his best to warn the rest of us of what was coming. I've followed him closely ever since, and I don't know if he's ever been wrong. My advice is, if you've come up with a different conclusion from McBride on how economic developments are going to unfold, you'd be wise to think it over again!” Professor James Hamilton, Economics, University of California, San Diego

Latest Articles

Sacramento Housing in May: Sales Down 6% YoY, Active Inventory DOWN 8% YoY

From May sees increase in sales, inventoryThe month ended with 1,630 total sales, a 9% increase from the 1,496 sales of April. Compared to the same month last year (1,730), the current figure is down 5.8%....The Active Listing Invento...

Schedule for Week of June 16, 2019

The key reports this week are May housing starts and existing home sales.For manufacturing, the June New York and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released.The FOMC meets this week, and no change to policy is expected at this meeting.----- Mo...

California Bay Area Home Sales Decline 2% YoY in May, Inventory up 15% YoY

From Compass chief economist Selma Hepp: Plenty of Bay Area buyers, but why are they hesitant?• While April’s momentum is slightly slower in May, May sales are still only 2 percent below last year’s highs after double-digit declines earlier in ...

"Mortgage Rates Just Had Another Awesome Week"

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Just Had Another Awesome WeekWhile we can't say that this week's best mortgage rate offerings were quite as good as last week's best, they were pretty darn close. In fact, quite a few lenders...

Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 2%

From Merrill Lynch: Core retail sales popped 0.5% mom in May with positive revisions. Industrial production and inventories were also solid. The data lifted 2Q GDP tracking by 0.4pp to 2.5% qoq saar. 1Q GDP tracking was unchanged at 3.2%.[June 14 est...