Calculated Risk

A full time blogger, Bill McBride retired as a senior executive from a small public company in the '90s. Mr. McBride holds an MBA from the University of California, Irvine, and has a background in management, finance and economics.

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“If you only follow one economics blog, it has to be Calculated Risk, run by Bill McBride. The site provides concise and very accessible summaries of all the key economic data and developments. One of the reasons McBride is able to do this so well is that he has an almost uncanny knack of recognizing which facts really matter. He began the blog in 2005 because he saw a disaster brewing in the form of the housing bubble, and tried his best to warn the rest of us of what was coming. I've followed him closely ever since, and I don't know if he's ever been wrong. My advice is, if you've come up with a different conclusion from McBride on how economic developments are going to unfold, you'd be wise to think it over again!” Professor James Hamilton, Economics, University of California, San Diego

Latest Articles

Richmond Fed: "Fifth District Manufacturing Firms Reported Robust Growth in May"

From the Richmond Fed: Fifth District Manufacturing Firms Reported Robust Growth in MayFifth District manufacturing firms saw robust growth in May, according to survey results from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index swung from ...

The Changing Mix of Light Vehicle Sales

Whenever I'm driving, it seems like I'm surrounded by more and more SUVs and trucks. So I thought I'd look at the changing mix of vehicle sales over time (between passenger cars and light trucks / SUVs).The first graph below shows the mix of sales si...

"Mortgage Rates Unchanged to Begin Week", Near 7 Year High

Tuesday:• At 10:00 AM ET, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for May.From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Unchanged to Begin WeekMortgage rates held steady today, which is better than what could be said for most of ...

Ten Years Ago: Looking back at a Foreclosure

Ten years ago today, I wrote House Price Mosaic. This was a discussion of how areas with significant foreclosure activity were seeing larger price declines (as expected).In the post, I mentioned a foreclosure that Jim the Realtor had listed for sale ...

Oil Prices Up almost 50% Year-over-year

First, an excerpt from a research note by Merrill Lynch economists today: If bad luck intersects with bad policy, a recession becomes a real risk. We would keep a particularly close eye on two traditional business-cycle killers-the Fed response to st...