Calculated Risk

A full time blogger, Bill McBride retired as a senior executive from a small public company in the '90s. Mr. McBride holds an MBA from the University of California, Irvine, and has a background in management, finance and economics.

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“If you only follow one economics blog, it has to be Calculated Risk, run by Bill McBride. The site provides concise and very accessible summaries of all the key economic data and developments. One of the reasons McBride is able to do this so well is that he has an almost uncanny knack of recognizing which facts really matter. He began the blog in 2005 because he saw a disaster brewing in the form of the housing bubble, and tried his best to warn the rest of us of what was coming. I've followed him closely ever since, and I don't know if he's ever been wrong. My advice is, if you've come up with a different conclusion from McBride on how economic developments are going to unfold, you'd be wise to think it over again!” Professor James Hamilton, Economics, University of California, San Diego

Latest Articles

Schedule for Week of Feb 18, 2018

The key economic report this week is January existing home sales.----- Monday, Feb 12th ----- All US markets are closed in observance of the Presidents' Day holiday.----- Tuesday, Feb 13th ----- No major economic releases scheduled.----- Wednesday, F...

Oil Rigs "Continued gains in rig counts"

A few comments from Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC on Feb 16, 2018:• Total US oil rigs saw another solid week, +7 to 798• Horizontal oil rigs were up even better, +10 to 696...• All the action was in the inscrutable ‘Other’ ...

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January

From housing economist Tom Lawler:Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports from across the country released through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjust...

Quarterly Housing Starts by Intent, Q4 2017

In addition to housing starts for January, the Census Bureau also released the Q4 "Started and Completed by Purpose of Construction" report today.It is important to remember that we can't directly compare single family housing starts to new home sale...

Comments on January Housing Starts

Earlier: Housing Starts increased to 1.326 Million Annual Rate in JanuaryThe housing starts report released this morning showed starts were up 9.7% in January compared to December, and starts were up 7.3% year-over-year compared to January 2017.   T...