Calculated Risk

A full time blogger, Bill McBride retired as a senior executive from a small public company in the '90s. Mr. McBride holds an MBA from the University of California, Irvine, and has a background in management, finance and economics.

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“If you only follow one economics blog, it has to be Calculated Risk, run by Bill McBride. The site provides concise and very accessible summaries of all the key economic data and developments. One of the reasons McBride is able to do this so well is that he has an almost uncanny knack of recognizing which facts really matter. He began the blog in 2005 because he saw a disaster brewing in the form of the housing bubble, and tried his best to warn the rest of us of what was coming. I've followed him closely ever since, and I don't know if he's ever been wrong. My advice is, if you've come up with a different conclusion from McBride on how economic developments are going to unfold, you'd be wise to think it over again!” Professor James Hamilton, Economics, University of California, San Diego

Latest Articles

Wednesday: FOMC Statement and Press Conference, Pending Home Sales

Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• At 10:00 AM, Pending Home Sales Index for December. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in the index.• At...

CBO Projection: Annual Budget Deficit to be above 4% GDP for the Next Decade

Remember the promise that the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) would "pay for itself", and that the current administration would reduce the deficit? Hoocoodanode? ("Who could have known?",Popularized by my former co-blogger Tanta!)The Congressional ...

Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices

CR Note: This is a repeat of earlier posts with updated graphs.A few key points:1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices.2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the seasonal pattern.3) Even though distressed sa...

Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Activity Rebounded in January

From the Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Activity Rebounded in JanuaryFifth District manufacturing activity rebounded in January, according to the most recent survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite index rose from −5 in December to 20 in January, ...

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 3.5% year-over-year in November

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November ("November" is a 3 month average of September, October and November prices).This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 citie...