Almanac Trader

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S&P 500 Not the Best Economic Indicator

On a closing basis, the S&P 500 nearly reached correction territory in late October when it declined 9.88% from its high close on September 20 to its recent low close on October 29. After bouncing higher ahead of and after Election Day, S&P 500 has ...

Small Caps On Sale: Seasonal Bounce Ahead?

There has been a good deal of rhetoric lately as to how small caps have underperformed badly recently. On closer examination however small caps have actually performed right in line with historical seasonal patterns (yes, the magnitude of the moves ...

Tough Start, but Week before Thanksgiving Usually Bullish

In addition to this week being options expiration week, this week is also the week before Thanksgiving week. This overlap occurs in most years, but not all. November 2013 would be the most recent example when they did not overlap. After today’s de...

November Expiration Week: DJIA has Best Record

DJIA has been up 10 of the last 14 years on Monday of expiration week and Friday is up 12 of the last 16 years with an average gain of 0.55%. For you fact-checkers our there it is not a mistake that November Op-Ex day has the same point change and p...

Typical November Trading: Strength Early & Late

As of the market’s close yesterday, DJIA was up 2.07% thus far in November. S&P 500 was higher by 1.61% and NASDAQ was higher by 0.96%. Small-caps, measured by the Russell 2000 were performing the best, up 2.96% over the first four trading days in...