Trading Ideas

Book Bits | 14 September 2019

● The Case For People’s Quantitative Easing By Frances CoppolaReview via Brave New Europe The thesis behind the book is that, although quantitative easing since the Great Financial Crisis of 2007/8 has failed, the cause of failure was its implementation, not the policy itself. Quantitative easi ...

September 13, 2019

And now it’s time to start preparing PrefLetter! HIMIPref™ Preferred IndicesThese values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ IndicesValues are provisional and are finalized monthly Index MeanCurrentYield(at bid) MedianYTW MedianAverageTradingValue MedianMod Dur(YTW) Issue ...

Trade Optimism and Easy Money Set to Drive Stocks to Fresh Record Highs

The bull story for the rest of the year remains in place as trade war angst ebbs, the stimulative effect from lower rates kicks in, the US consumer remains resilient and credit markets show money is still available. The S&P 500 could rally another 3-5% as long as we don’t see a policy mistake by ...

USD/CAD Canadian Dollar Lower on Record High Household Debt

The Canadian dollar fell 0.45 percent on Friday and will finish 0.78 pecan lower against the US dollar. Canadian households have a 174.1 percent debt to income ratio in 2019 Q2. Rating agencies have already downgraded some of the banks as the risk of higher defaults rises as consumers take on more ...

European Central Bank Policy: QE Infinity

At his penultimate press conference before his term ends next month, European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi delivered the package of monetary policy easing measures he had skilfully telegraphed during previous months. That fiscal policy is becoming the new monetary policy when it comes ...

Week ahead – Central banks the only game in town

Brexit, Fed and trade war remain in focus For many months now, all of the attention has been on the trade war, Brexit and central bank easing. Next week is going to be no different as the UK Supreme Court rules on Boris Johnson’s prorogation of Parliament, talks continue ahead of a meeting betwee ...

Cool Video: Thoughts on ECB

A few hours after the ECB announced a new package of monetary accommodation, I joined a discussion on CNBC Asia with Nancy Hungerford and Sir Jegarajah.  Here is a clip of part of our discussion.   I make two points.  The first is about the euro's price action.  What impressed me about it ...

Bitcoin Rebounds on ECB Cut Looks Ahead to Fed

Cryptocurrencies had a volatile trading week. Risk appetite returned to the market with the news that US and China were defrosting their trade negotiations. The crypto world saw a correction to the downside at the beginning of the week as Bitcoin had attracted investor flows as a safe haven, so nat ...

US Open – Trade Concessions, Retail Sales, Backstop, Oil, Gold

US stocks are continuing to inch higher toward record territory after China expanded their tariff exemption list and as investors begrudgingly expect the bull market to reassert itself on renewed stimulus measures by central banks.  Optimism is growing once again that we could see a US-China trade ...

Retail Sales increased 0.4% in August

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.4 percent from July to August (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.1 percent from August 2018.From the Census Bureau report:Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2019, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and tra ...