Outlook

Dollar Recovers Fed Driven Losses on Safe-haven Flows

The US dollar had a wild week, finishing the week mixed against its major trading partners, as market participants reassess the effects of the Fed’s dovish commitment and how much weaker the German economy will become.  Risk-aversion remains the key theme for financial markets after the three-mo ...

Q1 GDP Forecasts: Around 1%

From Goldman Sachs: We boosted our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by three tenths to +0.7% (qoq ar). However ... we lowered our past-quarter GDP tracking estimate for Q4 by two tenths to +2.1%. [March 22 estimate]emphasis added From the NY Fed Nowcasting ReportThe New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.3% ...

Saskatchewan Budget: Government Actions Return Province to Balance

The Conference Board of Canada Economist Daniel Lam offers insights on Saskatchewan’s 2019 Budget: Quote “Following two years of recession in 2015 and 2016, that drove the province deep into the red, Saskatchewan drastically increased taxes and announced a stringent spending plan with the goal ...

Inflation Remains Muted and Retail Sales Fall

The Conference Board of Canada’s Economics Director Matthew Stewart offers the following insights on today’s consumer price index and retail sales data: Quote “Inflation remained weak in February and retail sales declined for the third month in a row. This slow start to the year is inline wit ...

Completing the Capitulation: The Entirety of the FED Turns Dovish - Nathan McDonald (22/03/2019)

March 22, 2019 As previously forecast, the FED has once again taken a step back from its stance on raising interest rates, admitting that the economy as a whole appears to be on shakier ground than they once thought. This complete and utter capitulation by FED Chairman Jerome Powell has shocked ...

Terrible German PMI data sinks global stocks and euro

Stocks & USD – Terrible European data kills risk appetite EUR – Euro falls as German bunds go negative Brexit – EU throws UK a delay bone  Oil – Stockpiles fell 9.6M even as imports rose 186K Gold – Stronger on dovish Fed Stocks & Dollar US equities are off to a poor start on the final d ...

Apple Leads Big Technology Rally

Market Recap for Thursday, March 21, 2019 Technology stocks (XLK, +2.51%) carried Wall Street higher on Thursday as computer hardware ($DJUSCR, +3.56%), semiconductors ($DJUSSC, +3.13%), and software ($DJUSSW, +2.20%) all surged to fresh 2019 highs.  Apple, Inc. (AAPL, +3.68%), which has regained ...

Euro plunges on German manufacturing woes

Brexit extension means more sterling volatility for longer Sterling is as volatile as you would expect one week from the initially scheduled Brexit day as traders continue to weigh up the risks of no-deal Brexit against what an extension does for May’s deal, or the prospect of other options still ...

EU grants UK stay of execution

EU grants UK stay of execution The US yield curve continued to flatten again overnight following an uber-dovish Federal Reserve. On a slow news day in North America, this flowed through to stocks with the tech sector leading the way with Apple and semiconductor shares surging higher. Levi Strauss ...

Stock Market Singing: "The Sun Will Come Out Tomorrow"

In this video podcast, I discuss the odd weakness in real GDP growth and in the Economic Surprise Index during the first quarter of the past few years. I agree with Annie (and the stock market) that the sun will come out tomorrow. ...