Outlook

FOMC Preview

The consensus is the FOMC will cut the Fed Funds rate 25 bps to a range of 1.75% to 2.0% at the meeting this week.  A 50 bps cut is not impossible, but seems unlikely at this meeting.A key will be if the FOMC signals another rate cut in October.  The hints could be in the press conference, or in t ...

This Week on TRB

We held the inaugural Wealth/Stack event this past week and it blew away all expectations. 700 registered, standing room only in every session, attendees reviews off the charts. We put the CEOs and founders of the largest RIAs in the country on stage, as well as some of the leading technology provid ...

Book Bits | 14 September 2019

● The Case For People’s Quantitative Easing By Frances CoppolaReview via Brave New Europe The thesis behind the book is that, although quantitative easing since the Great Financial Crisis of 2007/8 has failed, the cause of failure was its implementation, not the policy itself. Quantitative easi ...

Trade Optimism and Easy Money Set to Drive Stocks to Fresh Record Highs

The bull story for the rest of the year remains in place as trade war angst ebbs, the stimulative effect from lower rates kicks in, the US consumer remains resilient and credit markets show money is still available. The S&P 500 could rally another 3-5% as long as we don’t see a policy mistake by ...

USD/CAD Canadian Dollar Lower on Record High Household Debt

The Canadian dollar fell 0.45 percent on Friday and will finish 0.78 pecan lower against the US dollar. Canadian households have a 174.1 percent debt to income ratio in 2019 Q2. Rating agencies have already downgraded some of the banks as the risk of higher defaults rises as consumers take on more ...

Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 1.5% to 2.0%

From Merrill Lynch: 3Q and 2Q GDP tracking remain at 2.0% qoq saar. [Sept 13 estimate]emphasis added From Goldman Sachs: Following this morning’s data, we boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +2.0% (qoq ar). [Sept 13 estimate]From the NY Fed Nowcasting ReportThe New York Fed Staff ...

Week ahead – Central banks the only game in town

Brexit, Fed and trade war remain in focus For many months now, all of the attention has been on the trade war, Brexit and central bank easing. Next week is going to be no different as the UK Supreme Court rules on Boris Johnson’s prorogation of Parliament, talks continue ahead of a meeting betwee ...

Oil Falls on Demand Concerns and Oversupply

Oil slipped to around $60 a barrel on Friday as concern about a slowdown in the global economy and oil demand outweighed hints of progress in the U.S.-China trade dispute. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the International Energy Agency (IEA) both issued reports this week p ...

US Open – Trade Concessions, Retail Sales, Backstop, Oil, Gold

US stocks are continuing to inch higher toward record territory after China expanded their tariff exemption list and as investors begrudgingly expect the bull market to reassert itself on renewed stimulus measures by central banks.  Optimism is growing once again that we could see a US-China trade ...

Will Inflation’s Upside Surprise Spoil The Fed’s Rate-Cutting Party?

Just when it looked like inflation’s threat was fading, yesterday’s August report on consumer prices dispensed a not-so-fast alert. The core reading of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% last month and accelerated to a 2.4% annual pace – the highest in 1 ...