Outlook

Book Bits | 25 May 2019

● A Brief History of Doom: Two Hundred Years of Financial Crises By Richard VagueSummary via publisher (University of Pennsylvania Press) Financial crises happen time and again in post-industrial economies—and they are extraordinarily damaging. Building on insights gleaned from many years of wo ...

Trade Tension Takes Turn at Top

Trade tensions will likely continue to contribute to increase volatility and the longer it drags on, the bigger hit to economic growth, consumer/business confidence and the stock market. Our neutral stance around U.S. equities suggests keeping allocations no higher than longer-term strategic targets ...

May’s Resignation means Brexit is Back to Square One

One word perfectly sums up the events of this week. Disappointing.  For some it began with the uninspiring conclusion of Game of Thrones, long-term stock investors grimaced at the lack of progress with the US-China trade war, and FX traders will see the British pound remain in limbo after Prime Mi ...

Oil steady but set for 2019′s biggest weekly loss

Oil prices were steady on Friday ahead of long U.S. and UK holiday weekends, but were on track for its biggest weekly drop of the year, pressured by rising inventories and concern over an economic slowdown. Brent crude rose 12 cents to $67.88 a barrel by 11:57 a.m. ET (1557 GMT) but the global benc ...

Five Trendlines Revisited

About a month ago, I wrote an article for ChartWatchers titled “Five Trendlines You Should Be Watching.” The general idea was that, as long as those five trend lines held, then the market was still most likely in a very constructive phase. Revisiting those trend lines here will show that ...

Beyond financial planning: How to achieve the lifestyle you want

Q. I have just turned 40, am single, and earn $86,000 a year. I also have zero debt. I just finished paying off my house, worth $315,000, and I would like to continue to put away my mortgage payment of $1,000 every two weeks as savings. Because all money went to debt repayment, I’ve never really ...

Q2 GDP Forecasts: Mid 1% Range

From Merrill Lynch: We lowered 2Q GDP tracking by 0.2pp to 1.6%, while 1Q remained unchanged at 2.9% [May 24 estimate]emphasis added From Goldman Sachs: We lowered our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by two tenths to +1.3% and our past-quarter GDP tracking estimate for Q1 by one tenth to +3.0% (qoq ar). [U ...

Behold, the power of compounding! And fall to your knees in the presence of its invincibility!

Okay, this one was really fun to make. I hope you like it. Make sure to let my bosses at CNBC know and maybe they’ll let me make more of these! Reply to this tweet: Here it is – the world premiere of my new video: How to Double Your Money in the Market Hope you love it! https://t.co/yqRDtS32O5#i ...

Merrill on the "Softening" Auto Sector

A few brief excerpt from a Merrill Lynch research note on the auto sector: Autos: lot full In our view, the peak in auto sales is clear and we will likely see some softening going forward, but we do not expect a sharp drop. The labor market is still solid with a healthy pace of job growth and the em ...

USD/JPY – Investor angst boosts safe-haven yen

USD/JPY is almost unchanged on Friday. In the North American session, the pair is trading at 109.60, up 0.01% on the day. On the release front, Japanese National Core CPI improved to 0.9%, matching the forecast. The All Industries Activity indicator declined 0.4%, marking a fifth successive decline ...