Markets

Taleb: What Size Tail Does the Smart Money Bet On?

Statistician/philosopher Nassim Nicholas Taleb critiques “behavioral” economics and finance as he looks at the differences between “binary forecasts” and “real world payoffs,” in a recent paper for the International Journal of Forecasting. Much of the argument will be familiar to those w ...

Wednesday: FOMC Statement and Press Conference, Pending Home Sales

Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• At 10:00 AM, Pending Home Sales Index for December. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in the index.• At 2:00 PM, FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to ...

Ahead of the January FOMC - Craig Hemke (28/01/2020)

January 28, 2020 Much of the talk surrounding gold thus far in 2020 has focused upon geo-political and pandemic risks. While all of this is relevant to price in the short-term, the discussions being held by the Fed's FOMC this week will have a much more durable impact. At this point, I wouldn't exp ...

CBO Projection: Annual Budget Deficit to be above 4% GDP for the Next Decade

Remember the promise that the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) would "pay for itself", and that the current administration would reduce the deficit? Hoocoodanode? ("Who could have known?",Popularized by my former co-blogger Tanta!)The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released their new The Budget ...

Trading Weekly Options on Canada Goose Holdings Inc (GOOS.TO)

Just as a follow up to our block trade on Canada Goose Holdings Inc (GOOS) from November 14, 2019,  the January 17, 2020 $46 strike call options have expired worthless, since the stock traded out-of-the money at market close. Effectively, we have captured the full option premium of $4.31/share and ...

Inter Pipeline Announces 2019 Year End Conference Call and Webcast

CALGARY, Jan. 28, 2020 /CNW/ – Inter Pipeline Ltd. (“Inter Pipeline”) (TSX:IPL) will announce its year end and fourth quarter 2019 financial and operating results on February 20, 2020. A conference call and webcast has been scheduled for February 21, 2020 at 9:00 a.m. MT (11:00 a.m. ET) for ...

Gran Tierra Energy Inc. Announces 2019 Year-End Reserves and Operational Update

Achieved 200% 1P Reserves and 101% 2P Reserves Replacement Added 25.3 MMBOE of 1P Reserves Primarily in the Company’s Four Core Assets Under Waterflood Increased 2P Net Asset Value per Share to $6.28 Before Tax and $4.54 After Tax CALGARY, Alberta, Jan. 28, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Gran Tierra ...

Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Activity Rebounded in January

From the Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Activity Rebounded in JanuaryFifth District manufacturing activity rebounded in January, according to the most recent survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite index rose from −5 in December to 20 in January, as all three components— shipments, new orders, ...

US Open – Big China Tech to return to work on Feb 10th, Part of the curve inverted, eyes on Apple, Oil’s tumble continues, Gold ETF signals potential top

US stocks are looking at a positive open, rebounding after the worst day since October.  The coronavirus continues to spread as the amount of cases surge over 4,500 and the death toll rises to 106 people.  The market selloff is easing as expectations grow that we could see some Chinese businesse ...

Moderate US Growth Expected In This Week’s Q4 GDP Report

The coronavirus that’s roiling China and beyond is creating uncertainty about global economic activity in early 2020, but this week’s initial estimate of US GDP for last year’s fourth quarter is on track to post a gain that’s comparable to Q3’s moderate rise. Output is expected to show ...